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000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1039 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROF.

WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO BRING FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/BELK/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE FOR TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER SHORT WAVE RIDGE. WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROF.

WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS JUST WORKING INTO REGION THIS
EVENING AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXPECT
TEMPS TO COOL QUICKLY AND THEN MORE SLOWLY AS HIGH CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE. LOWERED MIN TEMPS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
NW MA FROM PRIOR FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 18Z GFS RUN AND IT
SUPPRESSES THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT MODIFIED FROM
PRIOR FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM S
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EVEN IF A FEW SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS
NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY
FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH MONDAY.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
   LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN JULY...ANY ROBUST SHORT WAVES PASS NORTH OF REGION WITH HEIGHTS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ZONAL BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...OFTEN MORE PROBLEMATIC IN MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WHETHER OR NOT WEAK SURFACE WAVES MAY FORM ALONG PASSING COLD FRONTS.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WITH POSSIBLY MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ALOFT
PER K INDEX SIGNATURE MOVES THROUGH REGION. AIR MASS MOISTENS
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THINKING CHANCE
POPS NW TWO THIRDS OF AREA WHERE A HINT OF A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT CHANCE MOST OF SE THIRD. BELIEVE LESS
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT MAY SEE A FEW
AIR MASS TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN NW MA.
WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN TURN LEADS TO SOME ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES FOR WED. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS...HOWEVER...DEPICTS SOME LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS ON WED. MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT MOVE
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR
SUGGESTS FOR NOW THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED.
THURSDAY...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THU GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ECMWF DEVELOPS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND HOLDS RAFL
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH POPS IN THE UPPER END OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THU...REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CONTINUITY OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF AND DEVELOPS STILL ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE 00Z VERSION.
IF THE LATEST ECMWF RUN WERE TAKEN LITERALLY...IT WOULD HAVE A
SOAKING RAIN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN CONTRAST KEEPS ANY FRONTAL
WAVE ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE
RUNS SUGGESTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE FRI FORECAST AS WE DRAW CLOSER AND GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POCKETS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBSIDING SWELL SUN MORNING...PROBABLY JUST UNDER 5 FEET...OVER THE
OUTER S AND SE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031926
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON JULY 4TH
AND MAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FINE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST PA MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH A TREND TO REACH OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GUIDENCE.

FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF QUICKLY.
MEANWHILE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THIS
POINTS TO MIN SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

INDEPENDENCE DAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RACES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS
ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND GGEM CLIP CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. THE ECMWF COMPROMISES WITH PCPN ACROSS RI AND SE MASS. WE
FAVORED THE ECMWF PLACEMENT IN SETTING UP OUR POPS...LIKELY POPS
ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST...CHANCE POPS IN SE MASS/RI/NE
CT...SLIGHT CHANCE NE MASS AND NCENTRAL MASS. CONVECTION FROM NEW
YORK MAY CROSS INTO WESTERN MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN MASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COASTAL LOW CROSSES 40N/70W IN THE EVENING AND MOVES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY PCPN TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF US BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A CLEARING TREND
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUN...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSES ON SUN. OVERALL PWATS IN THE
COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE
MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MASS/RI SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
RAIN/FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING/CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
OVER OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. FARTHER NORTH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BUT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PERSISTANT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THOSE WATERS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN NORTH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE
ARE MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CONDITIONS AT BOSTON TOWARD
EVENING DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THAT TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST BY SATURDAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

MORNING BALLOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED EASY MIXING TO 850 MB...THEN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB. MID MORNING AMDAR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE MIXING HAD INDEED REACHED 850 MB AT THAT
TIME. TEMPS AT 850 MB WERE 7C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD BE EQUIVILENT TO 12C AT
850...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN WORKING ON THE AIRMASS WE WOULD EXPECT THE INVERSION
TO EVENTUALLY MIX OUT. CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...EXCEPT COOLER COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN BY MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE LAST OF THE REMAINING -SHRA MOVING E OF ACK...ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHER UPDATES WERE MAINLY
TO TEMPS...IN ESSENCE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A SLIGHT W COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /AWAY FROM SEA
BREEZES OF COURSE/ SUGGEST HIGHS MAY OVER-PERFORM A LITTLE BIT.
HENCE THE SLIGHT UPWARD SHIFT WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-16Z.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY...BEST CHANCE IS AT TERMINALS S OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY RAINFALL
WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT...
SO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WEATHER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT
APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...
HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE CHARGE LEAD BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...HAS BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE REST OF THE 03/00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE PROJECTED TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GFS REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST...WITH THE
SLOWEST TIMING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...AS THE DETAILS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT MURKY.

DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SHIFT AMONG ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...
DECIDED TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST WETTER...RATHER THAN GOING WITH
THE WASHOUT FROM PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A
WINTER-TIME SETUP...WENT WITH RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THAT
SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE POTENTIAL CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * RAIN ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
 * HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 * UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL
GFS REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED OUTLIER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEEPENING OF A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.
THIS OVERAMPLIFCATION CONTINUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS
WITH THIS LONG TERM UPDATE AND APPLYING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/ECENS
AND PERSISTENCE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NE...AS DEEPENING CUTOFF ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
CONTINUOUSLY FEEDS WARM ADVECTION INTO THE RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE/DRY WX PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT.  BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...IT IS A MATTER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS CUTOFF.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A MORE E SHIFT IN THE CUTOFF...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A LONGER UNSETTLED PERIOD. WHILE OTHERS ARE FURTHER
W...AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF.  IN ANY CASE...COOLER AND MORE PERIODIC WET
WX IS POSSIBLE IN COMPARISON TO THE EARLY WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPPER LVL WAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SFC FEATURES TO WATCH.
THE FIRST...SAT NIGHT IS AN OCEAN LOW PRES WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
WHICH...COULD LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS. THE SECOND IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL PWATS
IN THE COLUMN ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WITH IN THE LOWEST 300HPA. IN EITHER CASE...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS LIKELY TO BE MOST RAINFALL TO CONTEND WITH. H85 TEMPS
NEAR +10C SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...SO HIGHS ON SUN REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

MON INTO TUE...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING OVER FROM THE
W...COMBINING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT HIGH PRES AND DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THEE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY. H85 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO +15C BY TUE.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S WILL BE FORECAST.

WED...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING FROM THE STRONG
CUTOFF WELL TO THE W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
COLUMN MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...COOLING H5 TEMPS AND LEFTOVER WARM/MOIST LOWER LEVELS
SUGGEST DECREASING STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE...WITH THE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS AND
SHOWERS. SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU AND FRI...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE UPPER CUTOFF GETS TO THE NE CONUS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS...BUT
EXACTLY HOW MANY WAVE/HOW STRONG AND WHEN THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE TO
BE BETTER DEFINED ONCE THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS AND BECOMES BETTER
SAMPLED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SE MA/RI
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.  ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MON INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
EASTERLY TO NE AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE WATERS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEAS ON THE
WATERS S AND SE OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN TO DECLINE FROM 5-7 FT BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S...AND WHILE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030233
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1033 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A SECONDARY STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SECOND AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. IT IS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN TWEAKING POPS...ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING
AIRMASSES...GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A
PATTERN AS OF LATE THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER
OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0230Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. SCATTERED SHRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR
FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN
WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

POTENT WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE N
WILL REFOCUS LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY GENERATING AROUND
NYC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING S AND E
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN ADDITION TO THE BIG SLUG OF RAIN S AND
OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND PRESENTLY.

ANTICIPATE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY TO SKIRT THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSH IN FROM THE N AND W.
HAVE GREATEST POPS OFFSHORE OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NANTUCKET...PERHAPS S CAPE COD SHORES AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH OF THE WET-
WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS COOLEST OVER NW MA AROUND THE LOW-50S...YET
WARMEST ALONG THE S/SE-COAST IN THE LOW-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR-NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

18Z UPDATE...

THE 02.18Z GFS CONSIDERABLY OBLITERATES 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES
WITH A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. APPEARING AS AN OUTLIER AS OF PRESENT AND
WILL TREAT IT AS SO. NEVERTHELESS THE 02.12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLES HAVE
ROUGHLY A SPLIT OF 50 MEMBERS...HALF DRY AND THE OTHER HALF
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF WET-WEATHER. 02.18Z NAM CONTINUES THE
FORECAST TREND OF WET-WEATHER OVER PA PERHAPS ADVECTING E/NE WITH
THE MEAN FLOW INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY WHICH TIME IT IS MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE-EYE ON THIS EVER CHANGING FORECAST AND
NOW A GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT IT MAY NOT REMAIN DRY OVER S NEW
ENGLAND AFTER ALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE. -RA FOR ACK AND POSSIBLE
IFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SEAS ALONG THE S-WATER HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5-FEET. WILL DROP THE
SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR- NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MAINLY QUIET
AND DRY 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE WEATHER TAKES A
TURN TOWARDS A WARM...MUGGY...WET-WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY?
 - DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WARMER
 - RETURN OF WARM...MUGGY...AND WET-WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
 - CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN

*/ DISCUSSION...

AN EBB AND FLOW PATTERN. SHOULD A H5 LOW ANOMALY MAINTAIN ACROSS THE
N ATLANTIC WITH H5 RIDGING IN AND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE W CONUS
THEN H5 TROUGHING WOULD BE PREFERRED THROUGH THE C-CONUS ALONG THE E-
PERIPHERY OF WHICH THE NE-CONUS WOULD EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE WOBBLING BETWEEN AIRMASSES. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC IS CHAOTIC...BUT INTERPRETING ANOMALIES AS OF LATE WHILE
INTERROGATING ENSEMBLE DATA LEADS TO CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT BE
SEEING HEAT-WAVES NOR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON. A SWAY
OF TEMPERATURES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH EXCHANGING AIRMASSES...
GOING FROM COOL AND DRY TO WARM AND MUGGY...A PATTERN AS OF LATE
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE DRAW
PARALLELS TO THE WEAK EL-NINO SUMMER OF 2004 WITH THE C-CONUS HAVING
WELL BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE NE-CONUS HOLDING
NEAR- NORMAL.

LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE AND STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
IN MIND. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED AS THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF DISCREPANCY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HANDLES THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST TO LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY-
THING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT ON THE HORIZON.

*/ DAILIES...

JULY 4TH WEEKEND:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY-CAPPING MECHANISM KEEPS US PERHAPS QUIET
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD? YET THERE HAS BEEN AN INDICATION OF A
STOUT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL VORTEX THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH-PATTERN
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH UP AGAINST THE FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ALOFT...WHETHER WE CAN GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY PER
MID-LEVEL FORCING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH A MEASURE OF STABILITY. WILL KEEP WITH A MOSTLY-DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW BUT HOLDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...WITH CHANCE POPS S OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. FLOW
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE MAY MAKE FOR
SOME SMOKEY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. PERHAPS SOME FASTER FLOW MOVES IN BY
3Z AS THE 02.12Z NAM SUGGESTS BUT THINK ITS TOO ROBUST. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 MPH AND NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
FROM WHAT DIRECTION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

KEEPING IT DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. CHILLY INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT BEGIN TO SEE RETURN S-FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
GOING ON INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE PATTERN AT
LEAST BY TUESDAY WITH H85 +14C AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-80S WITH LOW-LYING INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER-80S.

MIDWEEK:

A RETURN OF WARM-MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SWEEPING SYNOPTIC LOW
DISTURBANCE FROM THE N. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD. CONFIDENCE TOWARDS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE 0Z GEFS
HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NE-CONUS...AND NATURALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHOULD THE TROUGHING PATTERN PERSIST AS A CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ROUNDS OF WET-WEATHER
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE. NO
CERTAINTY ON OUTCOMES. WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. MORE PROMINENT S-
WINDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS WILL
MAKE FOR GOOD BOATING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MORE PROMINENT S-WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. WILL HOLD SEAS
BELOW 5-FEET DESPITE ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM W-E S-OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021919
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL LIKELY
SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S. THIS
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021919
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT LIES ALONG OUR SOUTH COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THIS WEATHER KEEPS
MOST OF IT OFFSHORE...BUT COULD CLIP THE ISLANDS DURING THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTH COAST
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE ELBOW OF CAPE COD.

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IS INDUCING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH DIMINISHING CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH.

AS THE WAVE MOVES PAST THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST AND
DRAW DRIER AIR FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WHICH PROVIDES A GOOD
ESTIMATE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
LIGHT...SO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG THE COASTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO REACH 850 MB WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL AROUND 10C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...CALL IT 75 TO 80. COOLER VALUES WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE TAKES HOLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FORMS ANOTHER
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT APPROACH FROM OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE
FOCUS OF SUPPORTING LIFT TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL LIKELY
SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S. THIS
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE VINEYARD. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
FOR CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...
BUOY REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS...BUT MARGINAL. WE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFTS UP THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THOSE WATERS. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021723
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
123 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/FOG.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT
SHOWER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SURFACE OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS CAPE COD
BAY/CANAL/SOUTH MASS COAST. DRY AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH DEWS ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER MOSTLY IN CT-RI-SOUTHEAST MASS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. NO CHANGES TO POPS FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT 10 AM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE 8 AM ALY SOUNDING SHOWS SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS
FROM MIXING AROUND 81 DEGREES. THE EXISTING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
QUITE WELL. THE 10 AM TEMPS AND CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGEST LOW 80S
WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE CT VALLEY AND SE MASS/RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.
CHANGEABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE
WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE IT/S VERY SLOW PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. AS
IT DOES SO A SECONDARY UPPER LVL WAVE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRES LATE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF THE S COAST...BUT MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING. ONLY
OTHER GRID EDITS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST AREAS...AFTER AREA OF FOG LIFTS FROM ACK. MAINLY W-SW
WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE
COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND A SPOT SHOWER NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST ON SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARDS
NANTUCKET...WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A SHOWER LATE AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE. LOCAL SEABREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG
THE COAST...WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES BY THE BENCHMARK. MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
NANTUCKET...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS CAPE COD...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE VINEYARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
 * GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC UNDER
STRONG RIDGING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PACIFIC WHERE THE EPO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIVE STRONGLY NEGATIVE. THIS LEAVES MUCH
OF THE CONUS IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME. NEARLY...BECAUSE VERY
WEAK TROUGHING IS EVIDENT PARTICULARLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
SHIFTS THROUGH HE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN JET. HOWEVER...UNTIL
ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SRN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING.
SO EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
/SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES EXIST/ A BLEND WILL BE USED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHIFT AS THE NRN STREAM VORTEX REGAINS
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S...WILL
LIKELY SEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WELL TO THE S.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE W. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR
THE S COAST...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. HOWEVER...COLUMN
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND SUGGESTS SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE MOVING
E OF THE REGION. SO SUSPECT ONLY A FEW SPOT SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH AT MOST. TEMPS AT H85 ARE AROUND +10C...SO SUSPECT 2M TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUN INTO TUE...AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY LOCK IN PLACE FOR
A FEW DAYS OF DRY WX. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATING MID LVL TEMPS AND RISING HUMIDITY PARTICULARLY MON AND
TUE. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AN AVERAGE OF +12C MON...THEN CLOSER TO
+14C BY TUE. THEREFORE...AWAY FROM COASTLINES /WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL LIMIT WARMING/ EXPECT TEMPS WARMER THAN EARLY JULY NORMALS.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BECAUSE THIS IS SUCH A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...THERE
IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM REGARDING TIMING/STRENGTH...AND
ENSEMBLES ARE LITTLE HELP. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD KACK LATE...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR KACK...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER. CHANGEABLE WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT FIRST STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. ONCE
SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET...EXPECTING RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THAT POINT WOULD BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEEK LOW PRES WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE WATERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO E FLOW REACHING
20-25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS AND A BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD REACH
5-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBYS...MAINLY ON THE
SRN WATERS AS WELL.

SUN AN MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS
ALLOWING AND REMNANT SWELL TO SUBSIDE. AFTER WHICH QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE NORTH SHORE. FROM THERE...IT EXTENDED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MA INTO EASTERN CT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS, JUST ABOUT
ALL AREAS SAW SOME RAINFALL TODAY...MAKING FOG DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY.

TWEAKED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. BUT
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER
OPEN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE NORTH SHORE. FROM THERE...IT EXTENDED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MA INTO EASTERN CT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS, JUST ABOUT
ALL AREAS SAW SOME RAINFALL TODAY...MAKING FOG DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY.

TWEAKED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. BUT
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER
OPEN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





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