Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 300924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300651
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
251 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICLY FAVORABLE ZONES FOR
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300651
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
251 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICLY FAVORABLE ZONES FOR
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICLY FAVORABLE ZONES FOR
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICLY FAVORABLE ZONES FOR
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300209
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A BROADER AREA
OF CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO IS SHIFTING EAST...AND MAY REACH THE CT
VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AROUND 5 AM. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 10
PM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR. MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
CT-AND MERRIMACK-VALLEY TERMINALS...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE INTERIOR
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SHORE. PATCHY IN COVERAGE...WILL ERODE WITH
SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300209
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A BROADER AREA
OF CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO IS SHIFTING EAST...AND MAY REACH THE CT
VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AROUND 5 AM. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 10
PM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR. MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
CT-AND MERRIMACK-VALLEY TERMINALS...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE INTERIOR
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SHORE. PATCHY IN COVERAGE...WILL ERODE WITH
SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW...SOME HINT
AT INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THE H975-FIELD ACROSS THE S-COAST SUCH
THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
NOTING DEWPOINTS AT MAX-HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE LOW- TO MID-50S
AND CONSIDERING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...FOCUSED OVER
THE CT- AND MERRIMACK-RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE S/SE INTERIOR
IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM THE S-COAST /I.E. E CT AND W RI...SE MA/.
FORECAST LOWS DOWN AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-50S WITH A FEW AREAS IN
THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR. MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
CT- AND MERRIMACK-VALLEY TERMINALS...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE INTERIOR
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SHORE /I.E. E CT AND W RI...AND SE MA/.
PATCHY IN COVERAGE...WILL ERODE WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 292320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW...SOME HINT
AT INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THE H975-FIELD ACROSS THE S-COAST SUCH
THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
NOTING DEWPOINTS AT MAX-HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE LOW- TO MID-50S
AND CONSIDERING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...FOCUSED OVER
THE CT- AND MERRIMACK-RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE S/SE INTERIOR
IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM THE S-COAST /I.E. E CT AND W RI...SE MA/.
FORECAST LOWS DOWN AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-50S WITH A FEW AREAS IN
THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY
ENSEMBLES NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A
SUBDUED WEATHER- PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-
FLOW REGIME WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING /
HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW
PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER /THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND
BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR. MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
CT- AND MERRIMACK-VALLEY TERMINALS...AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE INTERIOR
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE SHORE /I.E. E CT AND W RI...AND SE MA/.
PATCHY IN COVERAGE...WILL ERODE WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. HIGH PRES REMAINING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN RADIATIONAL PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER NOT AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

REAL NICE DAY ONCE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY TO
SEE TODAY/S MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU EXPECTED. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SSW AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE
MU 70S EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THUS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER DEW PTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND AROUND TUESDAY
 - DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED PREFERENCE OF SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGING OF A ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY
SEPTEMBER SIGNALLED BY A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO / PNA. WITH
LESSER MAGNITUDE OF WIND THROUGH ALL LEVELS EMPHASIZED BY ENSEMBLES
NOT EXPECTING ROBUST-AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS...RATHER A SUBDUED WEATHER-
PATTERN. ANTICIPATE IMPULSES THROUGH THE ZONAL-FLOW REGIME WITH THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY EDGED N BY WEAK RIDGING / HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH
TRAILING OVER THE NE-CONUS TO ALLOW PERIODS OF DISTURBED WEATHER
/THINKING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND BRIEF-SHOTS OF REFRESHING AIR.

STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
FEEL THE GFS IS CLOSE TO FOLLOWING SUIT. DO NOT FAVOR THE 29.12Z NAM
AFTER 0Z MONDAY. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF THUNDER-
STORMS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. BULK-FORCING
PER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN A MID-LEVEL CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILE /H85-7/ ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE ASCENT...STRONGEST OF WHICH DURING THE
DAY WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES / POSITIVE BUOYANCY.

DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
THINKING INITIAL ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR
CLOSER TO BULK-FORCING AND ALONG THE S/W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...WHEREVER ASCENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTIVE-
TEMPERATURE IS MET TO BREAK THE CAP OF A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ AND FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 14-15 KFT...EXPECT ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS. WILL ONLY ENTERTAIN THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2-INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED AS DEEP-
LAYER FORCING IS LACKING. ORDINARY TO MULTICELLUR STORMS CONSIDERED
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES. WARM AND MUGGY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONCLUSION
OF DAYTIME-HEATING AND AS ENERGY STRETCHES TO THE NE OF THE DOMINANT
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOWERS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST-
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT WITHIN A CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE SLIDING SE TOWARDS THE WATERS.

NOT AS CONVINCED AS EARLIER THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOW WHERE FORCING IS PRESENT WITHIN A
LINGERING MOIST-UNSTABLE PROFILE. ITS LIKELY WHEREVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE CAN BE MET WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE. FEEL
BULK OF ENERGY SHIFTING S/E AND UNDERGOING STRETCHING THROUGH THE
ZONAL-FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKING DYNAMICS. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ACTIVITY E. SHOULD TURN QUIET.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

CONSIDERING THE FOLLOWING: EARLY-WEEK ENERGY IS STRETCHED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE W-PERIPHERY OF THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM THE W WITH PARENT DYNAMICS SHIFTING NW WELL INTO CANADA. A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST-UNSTABLE PLUME RE-SURGES INTO THE NE-CONUS COLLOCATED
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIDGING STILL
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...
FEEL IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE N / W INTERIOR. SE MAY FIND ITSELF
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE. BEST
CHANCE IS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITHIN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME
SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KTS. DYNAMICS LACKING AND WEAK RIDGING IS STILL
IN PLACE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

WILL PREVAIL WITH THE ECMWF OF ZONAL-FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME COOL NIGHTS.

NEXT WEEKEND...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SE TOWARDS A W-ATLANTIC RIDGE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED
MORE HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME-INSTANCES OF TSRA. BREEZY S-
WINDS. MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE S-COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE
S/E. LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH WET-WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHING SE SWELL.
VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG TOWARD MORNING NEAR SHORE.

SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG NEAR SHORE EXPECT GOOD
VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE SO WINDS
BECOME SSW.

SAT NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SSW WIND EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE S-COAST THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT EXPECTING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY. WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 5-FEET. WINDS REMAINING
BELOW 25 KTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND FEATURING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

SCT-BKN SCU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
ONSHORE/SEABREEZE PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. HOWEVER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
VERY SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNSET.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN CORE OF COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO LEFTOVER SURF FROM POST TROPICAL CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. CIGS AND VSBYS WEIGHTED MORE
HEAVILY ON NAM AND ITS METMOS THAN GFS AND MAVMOS.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN045-055. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER/RUNWAYS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND LIGHT SE
ALONG WITH COAST. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND IN THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR IN SCT-BKN035-045 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN020-030 ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. SE WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER/RUNWAYS CONTINUE.

SAT NIGHT...INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.  S WINDS BECOME MORE SSW DURING THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY. MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT
CHATHAM AND UPSTREAM AT ALBANY NY REVEAL STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...COURTSEY OF 1023 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. GIVEN THE CANADIAN ORIGINS OF THIS AIRMASS IT WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LATE AUG SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


10 AM UPDATE...

SE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS AS
HIGH PRES CREST OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.


SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES DAWNED CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW NORMALLY PRONE
SPOTS HAD SOME BRIEF PRE DAWN FOG AS WELL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK...BUT DID UPDATE GRIDS TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CT VALLEY
AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF E MASS. AS NE WINDS DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON SAT...SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL COASTS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290904
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING OVERALL CHANGES ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TOWARD A BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THOUGH LATE IN THE SEASON...AS OPPOSED TO
THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE EAST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF BROAD TROUGHING TO START OFF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL
NORTHERN TIER UPPER FLOW WHICH THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES IN
THE STEERING CURRENTS WORK IN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME
QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF SURFACE SYSTEMS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
WHICH SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...WENT CLOSER A BLEND OF THE EC/GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS. WITH SOLUTION TIMING ISSUES...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES E OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST...SO
HAVE CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SW WINDS WILL BRING IN
MORE HUMIDITY TOWARD THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. DEWPTS FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGS DURING SUNDAY. WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUNDAY...SO WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASING AS WELL AS THE HUMIDITY. WILL START TO SEE SHOWERS
AND SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP DURING SUN NIGHT. MODELS
SIGNALING A SHARP INCREASE IN PWATS AS WELL...ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO
2.3 INCHES...WHICH RUNS CLOSE TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER BY SUN NIGHT. SO...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY ALSO
MOVING ACROSS WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S...ALONG WITH A
BAND OF BELOW ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...WITH LOWS
SUN NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES.

MONDAY...
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AS IT WASHES OUT...BUT MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITIES. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. ALSO HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT PRECIP TO WEAKEN MON NIGHT. WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SO WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE W WITH THE DRIER AIR
REMAINING N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...SO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING SUNDAY.
MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY ONWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. LOW
END VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
LATE SUN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SW WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG WITH SEAS BELOW
5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290658
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL LINGERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BRING THE
ENDING TIME FORWARD TO 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS MEANS NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE. A 5 FOOT SOUTH SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL LINGERS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BUT IS SHOWING A LOWERING
TREND. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...ENDING IT ON THE SOUNDS BY 8 AM...AND ON ALL OUTER WATERS
BY 2 PM.

TONIGHT...SEAS WILL BE BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS LIGHT.

SATURDAY...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SEA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022-
     024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290624
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290624
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
224 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHILE
YESTERDAY/S UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING...THIS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ALL COASTLINES.

CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH MOISTURE
ALSO LINGERING BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. MIXING WILL REACH TO AT
LEAST THE BASE OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THE SKY COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 8-10C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LOWER CT
VALLEY. SEA BREEZES WILL BUFFER COASTAL TEMPS...WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S EAST OF MASS AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SO
COASTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR
EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST. DEW POINTS WILL
START TO RISE...BUT THIS TREND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FLOW PICKS
UP ON SATURDAY. AT THAT POINT...DEW POINT VALUES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SATURDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT...
THE LIGHT WIND/FAIR SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SATURATION FOR PATCHY FOG. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS.

SATURDAY...
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN A PLEASANT DAY. THE
SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED A LITTLE...BUT TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. SO SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST THE SAME AS TODAY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MILDER. BASED ON A
MIXED LAYER TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE...WE WENT WITH MAX TEMPS
75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR
A COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE
S- SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN THE
CT VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHT
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ALL COASTS. THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
INITIALLY TURNING NORTHEAST LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AT SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. MVFR-IFR CIGS / VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290147
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

A FEW CLOUD PATCHES OVER THE ISLANDS/GREATER HARTFORD-
SPRINGFIELD/NORTHERN VT-NH ALL DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ALL AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WEST AND 10G15
KNOTS EAST...ALSO TRENDING LIGHTER. WITH DEW POINTS 45-50F THERE
IS ROOM FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U40S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2F LOWER THAN HOURLY FORECASTS...SO
WE BUMPED THESE VALUES AND THE MIN TEMPS DOWN 2F.

SEAS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERAL ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES AS N/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES
UP TO 20 MPH. SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME MIXING SUBSIDES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATES AS N/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES
UP TO 20 MPH. SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME MIXING SUBSIDES.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY UNDER
LESSENING N/NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SEA-
BREEZES BY LATE MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG / STRATUS DURING THE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZES TOWARDS NOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

INTERESTING CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM MARSHFIELD DOWN TO
MVY...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FROM BOSTON DOWN TO NEW BEDFORD.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO BEING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. MIXING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...LEAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING WINDS GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZE WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET
TOMORROW. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

INTERESTING CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM MARSHFIELD DOWN TO
MVY...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FROM BOSTON DOWN TO NEW BEDFORD.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO BEING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. MIXING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...LEAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING WINDS GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
STILL A DESCENT GRADIENT ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 10 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS IN NH AND NW MASS
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD BE A FEW CU
DEVELOPING AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE THANKS TO SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SURF ADV FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET FOR TOMORROW
AS SWELL WILL STILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 11
SEC. ALTHOUGH THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT IS TODAY...THERE IS
STILL THE DANGER OF A ROUGH WAVE AS WELL AS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATERS
TOMORROW AND SWIM AT LIFE GUARDED BEACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BEING TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND
 - BEST CHANCE OF WET-WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 - COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

NOTING ENSEMBLE SIGNALS OF A NEGATIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA
PATTERN...PREFER A ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE NE-CONUS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BROADLY SPEAKING OVER THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AM EXPECTING SEASONABLE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. LIKELY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN
WHERE MORE REFRESHING AIR WILL DIVE S OUT OF CANADA...YET AVERAGING
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER VALUES
OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AS HINTED BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BUT ALSO ANTICIPATE A SUBDUED WEATHER PATTERN. ANY PACIFIC ENERGY
TROUGHING ACROSS W N-AMERICA SHOULD BE KEPT WELL N OF THE REGION IF
NOT STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONFLUENT ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN...AGAIN N OF
THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED...STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
LIMITATIONS IN CONVECTIVE SEVERITY...AS WELL AS KEEP CONVECTIVE
EPISODES MAINLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS...DIFFUSING
OVERNIGHT...HEAT AND MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN FUEL TO THE FIRE.

HAVE HIGH PRAISE FOR THE ECMWF / ECENS WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. THOUGH NOT IGNORING
OUTCOMES FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL PLACE GREATER WEIGHT ON
THE ECMWF / ECENS TOWARDS THE FORECAST. HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE
BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY S-WINDS...SCATTERED CUMULUS...AND LOW-80S HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET UNDER LIGHT S-FLOW. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW CLOUDS SEEP IN FROM THE S OR RATHER
MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...OR A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT UNDERGOING WEAK UPSLOPE? COULD NOT RULE IT OUT ALONG THE S-
SHORE. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

A BUILDING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FALLING HEIGHTS IN A REGION OF
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITHIN DECENT
H85-7 LAPSE RATES...ABOVE COLLOCATED LOW-LEVEL MOIST-INSTABILITY
AXES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / SW NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES / FRONTOGENESIS / H3 JET DYNAMICS RESIDES N AND
W...SIGNALS OF MID-LEVEL MOIST-CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ASCENT SHOULD YIELD SOME ACTIVITY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. ALSO WOULD EXPECT OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG S/W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN AIDING WITH ASCENT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N/W SLIDING SE WITH TIME. NO CONFIDENCE
AS TO SPECIFICS NOR STORM SEVERITY...BUT DO EXPECT THE BRUNT OF IT
TO REMAIN N/W OF THE FORECAST REGION PARENT WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
WHILE A WARM-SECTOR IS EXPECT THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER-80S...CLOUDS MAY BE A HINDERANCE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING PERIOD...HOPEFULLY ERODING WITH AN
INCREASE IN SW-WINDS...BLUSTERY AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING AND THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHED / SHEARED TO THE N...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SE WITH
TIME. APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE AGAINST
THE DOMINANT W-ATLANTIC RIDGE. YET BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH COLLOCATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
YIELD SOME ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE UNDER SW-FLOW...A VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-60S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COOLER AIR DIGGING SE INTO THE NE-CONUS YIELDING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILES ABOVE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
SHOULD SEE SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE YIELDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. MINOR INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR...ANY STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AIRMASS RELATED BENEATH
THE WEAK COLD POOL. BEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN WITH
W-WINDS UNDERGOING OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS. MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW-80S. TURNING QUIET AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...

EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF WHICH MODEST
INSTABILITY / WEAK SHEAR COLLOCATED WITH A SW-PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
RESIDES OVER S NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH BETTER DYNAMICS N/W OF
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL-FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE IN ADDITION TO THE LACKING DYNAMICS...
POTENTIALLY DIFFUSE MORE SO SHOULD THE FRONT SWEEP THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS AGAIN AROUND THE LOW-80S WITH A MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-60S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...

FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE ZONAL-FLOW PATTERN OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. SHALL
PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AROUND SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH MAY TURN COOL WITH EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES UNDER LIGHT WINDS. WEAK IMPULSES
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF LIKELY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS...BUT SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST OUTCOMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZE WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW-END VFR. CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS BACKING OUT OF W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD
AND DESCENT SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A RISK FOR HIGH
SURF. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
INCREASED IT TO ANZ250 AS THE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY COULD CREATE 5
FOOTERS.

TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS.
THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE
WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HAVE CONTINUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...WAVES WILL BE BELOW 5FT AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW-WINDS. PROLONGED FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS OF 5-FEET ON THE S/SW WATERS.
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WATERS. PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WITH BRISK WINDS...HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS. WET WEATHER CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECTING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WATERS WITH BREEZY S-
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTING TO SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-023.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
HEATING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION AS WE JUST TOPPED OUT AT 84F
BY 200 PM. TEMPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES MORE SO THEN FORECASTED
THANKS TO EXCELLENT MIXING UP TO 850 MB. THIS HAS ALLOWED GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING 20-25 MPH. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AT AROUND 850MB HAS ALLOWED FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. FINALLY...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP MAKING IT A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY NEAR 20 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SEA BREEZE WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS IN PATCHY
FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AS THEY ARE WARMING QUICKER THEN PREV FORECASTED.
REGARDLESS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE AIR. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND HAVE INCREASED THEM ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW MIXING UP TO 850 MB. ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
THE 850 MB LEVEL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND...THE BUOY HAS REMAINED ABOUT 5 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SEC. APPEARS BOTH THE PERIOD AND SWELL WILL
MAX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AROUND THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SW NH. SHOULD SEE THESE
CLOUDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. N-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT.

ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REACH
850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND FORMING
DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP LAYER OF
20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 10C-12C...
SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT BREEZY
DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELLS ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH
THROUGH THE OCEAN...NOTING A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED ON BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT HEIGHT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. WAVE MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CALCULATIONS SUGGEST
BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH- FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280912
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN TREND TOWARD A
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
MAINLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTING TIMING
ISSUES WITH SURFACE FEATURES BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THESE
FEATURES THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH SHOWED
GOOD CONSISTENCY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
EC/GFS ENSEMBLES BEYOND MONDAY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
WITH THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS /IN THE 70S/.

WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE BOTH NIGHTS...FIRST WITH
LIGHT/VRBL WINDS FRI NIGHT THEN BECOMING S BY SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT...SO WILL NOT ONLY SEE HUMIDITY
INCREASE BUT TEMPS BE SEVERAL DEGS MILDER SAT NIGHT AS COMPARED TO
FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THEN IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS S-SW WINDS
TAKE OVER. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A ROUND OF SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY. WITH A FLATTER...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT...NOTING ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO SINK S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...UNTIL AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH BEST SHOT FOR
CONVECTION EARLY SUN EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING.

EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...WILL SEE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUE INTO WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT E-SE WINDS FRI NIGHT BECOME S SAT. MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH NIGHTS
IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALONG THE COASTS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STARTING OFF VFR EARLY SUN...THEN A MIX OF LOW END VFR TO MVFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN ANY TSRA.
CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NE-E WINDS EARLY FRI NIGHT BECOMING SE BY SAT MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO S AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY SAT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE ON OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

LEFTOVER SWELL ON OUTER WATERS FROM CRISTOBAL FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP OFF A BIT
MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO LONG S-SW FETCH. PATCHY FOG MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280701
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280655
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 2 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT OVER CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AND WERE MOVING OFFSHORE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA.
THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD...REACHING A PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS. THE HURRICANE ITSELF WILL PASS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ONLY 205 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. SO THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECTS
OTHER THAN THE ROUGH SWELL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUES.

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT WIND...BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE WATERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020-
     022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280630
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY BRINGING
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF
RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
AT 1 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST MASS AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LED THE FRONT. THESE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE. CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL TREND EAST TO THE COAST BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
LINGERS NEAR NANTUCKET...AND SHOULD LINGER UNTIL FROPA. THE WIND
SHIFT SHOULD THEN START MOVING THE FOG OUT TO SEA.

TODAY...
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT A LAYER OF 80 PCT RH LINGERS BETWEEN
800 AND 850 MB. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSSED ON NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
REACH 850 MB OR A LITTLE HIGHER...TAPPING THIS MOISTURE AND
FORMING DIURNAL CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE MIXING WILL ALSO TAP A DEEP
LAYER OF 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS CREATING GUSTS TO THAT SPEED
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO
10-12C...SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THIS WILL MEAN A PLEASANT
BREEZY DAY.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 205
MILES OUT FROM THE STORM. SWELL ALREADY TRANSMITTED NORTH THROUGH
THE OCEAN HAS REACHED OUR WATERS WITH A 13-15 SECOND PERIOD
OBSERVED ON BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS...AND A 7 FOOT
HEIGHT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE BUOY SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND.
WAVE MODEL DATA SHOWS A 7-8 FOOT SWELL LINGERING ON OUR SOUTHERN
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
CALCULATIONS SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING OCEAN
BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING
DIMINISHING WIND WITH DECOUPLING IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL TO 45-55 MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INLAND TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. OCEAN INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS AROUND 60 OR LOW 60S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COASTS. TEMPS ALOFT 8-10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR 20
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20
KNOTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020-
     022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT
WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET. ANY
REMAINING STORMS WILL STILL THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES.

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED IN OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY NIGHT. EXPECT
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNRISE.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IFR/LIFR IN FOG AROUND
NANTUCKET WHICH COULD SPREAD NORTH/WEST TOWARD CAPE COD OVERNIGHT.
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH
THIS BACK OFFSHORE.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS REVERTING NW AS
CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL.
CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
DRIER WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT
WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET. ANY
REMAINING STORMS WILL STILL THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES.

COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED IN OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY NIGHT. EXPECT
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNRISE.

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IFR/LIFR IN FOG AROUND
NANTUCKET WHICH COULD SPREAD NORTH/WEST TOWARD CAPE COD OVERNIGHT.
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH
THIS BACK OFFSHORE.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS REVERTING NW AS
CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL.
CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD SUNRISE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YIELDING MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS IT PROGRESSES SE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSEQUENT AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. FEEL
SUCH THREATS WILL ONLY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED BY THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FEEL THE LATEST HRRR / RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION. HAVE MODELED FORECAST TRENDS
ACCORDINGLY. LIKELY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
IMPACT SE MA THAT INCLUDE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH THE WARM SPOTS SE
AND COOLEST AREAS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNIBLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE
LOW...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH
WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TSRA CONCLUDING TOWARDS 2Z EVOLVING INTO A SHRA-LINE PROGRESSING
SE TOWARDS ACK BY MORNING. VFR REARWARD OF THE LINE UNDER NW
WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS ALONG AND AHEAD UNDER
S/SW FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE DAY...CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL HOLD VFR WITH SHRA
UNTIL 1Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS REVERTING NW AS CIGS LIFT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHRA SHOULD MOVE OUT. NW
WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL. CIGS LIFTING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY THU MORNING WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU AND FRI...YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SAT...THEN A FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN INTO MON
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

LATEST RUNS OF NAM...12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD LESS CONVECTIVE QPF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY BEING OBSERVED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL MA WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NY...THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SO FAR. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AFTER PEAK HEATING /00Z-
06Z/...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OVER WESTERN CT/MA
WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS UP TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER MODEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE TO THE COAST
LATER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATER TROUGH ARRIVAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO CLEAR OUR REGION UNTIL OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE
FOR THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THUS
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THU NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNABLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE LOW...FOLLOWED
BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD
SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FROECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z...ANY -TSRA NOT FIRING UNTIL 20Z/21Z WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH CHANCES FARTHER EAST FADING TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. VFR PREVAILS WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR IN -TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TIL 06Z THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
06Z-12Z FROM NW TO SE. VFR PREVAILS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR SOUTH COAST UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE 06Z-12Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

THU NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WITH A MODEST NW WIND 10-20 KT DIMINISHING
TOWARD MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA 22Z-
04Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA
21Z-03Z.  GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THU...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNIGN ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THU NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY THU MORNING WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU AND FRI...YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL BRING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. PLEASANT WEATHER LINGERS
INTO SAT...THEN A FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN INTO MON
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

LATEST RUNS OF NAM...12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD LESS CONVECTIVE QPF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY BEING OBSERVED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL MA WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NY...THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SO FAR. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AFTER PEAK HEATING /00Z-
06Z/...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OVER WESTERN CT/MA
WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS UP TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER MODEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE TO THE COAST
LATER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATER TROUGH ARRIVAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO CLEAR OUR REGION UNTIL OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE
FOR THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THUS
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS COLD FRONT DEPARTS
THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS ALOFT REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEGATIVE K-INDICES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH DEW PTS TUMBLING INTO THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY THE U40S. HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU/SCU DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON.

NEVERTHELESS A SPECTULAR DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY...A REFRESHING NW
BREEZE OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS 75
TO 80.

HIGH SURF....

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL OFFSHORE BUT WNA AND THE HURRICANE
VERSION OF THE WNA YIELDS 5-10 FT SWELLS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 12 FT WELL SOUTH OF MVY AND ACK. OUR IN HOUSE
SURF CALCULATION SUGGEST BREAKERS OF 6-12 FT AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN
BEACHES TOMORROW. THUS VERY DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI AS THE WAVE MODELS TYPICALLY ERODE SWELL
ENERGY TOO QUICKLY. SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL NOT BE AS DANGEROUS
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THIS COASTLINE.

THU NIGHT...

CORE OF COOL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPS ABOUT +1 SD COOLER THAN NORMAL. N-NE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
EASTERN MA FROM COOLING OFF TOO /L60S/ MUCH GIVEN OCEAN WIND
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER INTERIOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE COULD SEE MINS
IN THE MU40S WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...ENJOY IT!
 - HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 - THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
 - WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
 - COULD REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING AS BOTH THE NAO/PNA REMAIN NEGATIVE TO
NEAR-NEUTRAL. EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS THE
ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS/CPC WOULD SUGGEST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...ANOMALOUS
ON THE ORDER OF +2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WITH ANTICIPATED WARMER
CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT OF RIDGING...EXPECTING PROLONGED S-FLOW TO
ADVECT MUGGY CONDITIONS N. LOOKING TO BE A WARM AND HUMID TIMEFRAME.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT
THE W-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER THE REGIONS
WEATHER. FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW SETUP AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION BETWEEN THE NE-CANADA TROUGH AND W-ATLANTIC
RIDGE REMAINING N OF THE REGION PARENT WITH BETTER JET-DYNAMICS AND
SHEARED MID-LEVEL ENERGY. ONLY AS A C-CONUS DISTURBANCE INVOKES A
WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL WET-WEATHER SHIFT INTO OUR AREA
AROUND MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA.

DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE...A BROAD SIGNAL IS DISCERNABLE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE WEAK-WAVE LOW...FOLLOWED
BY A SHARP COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD
SUGGEST THE PROPENSITY FOR ZONAL-FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING. FAVOR THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE ARE BROKEN DOWN IN THE DAILY DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS.
SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING WARM-FRONT FROM THE SW. ALONG WITH
WINDS TURNING S OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E...EXPECT MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S.

SATURDAY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE...JOINING WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW DISTURBANCE OVER NE-CANADA. AS THE
RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER THE C-CONUS...BELIEVE WET-WEATHER ACTIVITY
WILL BE PUSHED WELL N OF THE REGION BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
THUS WILL GO WITH A DRY-WEATHER FORECAST.

EXPECT PREVAILING S-FLOW TO BEGIN USHERING WARMER / HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW-80S AS A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH THE MIX-
DOWN OF BREEZY S/SW FLOW. FEEL THIS WILL RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES...SO
EXPECT INTERIOR WINDS TO PUSH THE WARM / HUMID CONDITIONS ALL THE
WAY TO THE E-SHORES.

MILD AND DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A LINGERING DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING N COULD LEND TO LOW CLOUDS / FOG ALONG
THE S-SHORE. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

SUNDAY...

WARM-FRONT WELL-DEFINED TO THE N. PUSH OF H85 +16-18C AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT S NEW ENGLAND TO BE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS. COLLOCATED WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR WINDS ONCE
AGAIN TO RESTRICT SEA-BREEZES AND PUSH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO THE E-SHORES.

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE C-CONUS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS E WITHIN THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE N
AND W WITHIN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...CLOSER TO REGIONS OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS / ASCENT AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIKELY THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE
AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS MET SUCH THAT ANY INVERSION WOULD
ERODE AND BOTH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S/W
FACING SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN OVER NW CT / W MA / S NH AS OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AID IN LIFTING THE WARM / JUICY AIRMASS ALOFT. BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE WINS OUT. STILL A FORECAST WAY OUT IN TIME
AND AS WE HAVE SEEN JUST IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THERE HAS
BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LINGERS FOR THE S/E SO WILL KEEP WITH
A DRY-FROECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WEAK-WAVE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PUSHES E
AND ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH APPEARING AS A NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...THE
COLLOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...MINOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BETTER FORCING DYNAMICS SHIFT N/E...SHUNTED BY THE
RIDGING PATTERN AND BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY. WILL PREVAIL WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY ONWARD...

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WEAK-WAVE DISTURBANCE. A
SHARPER COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ALL
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON SUCH OUTCOMES BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS. WOULD
ANTICIPATE RIDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE-
AVERAGE FOR THE TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z...ANY -TSRA NOT FIRING UNTIL 20Z/21Z WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH CHANCES FARTHER EAST FADING TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. VFR PREVAILS WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR IN -TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TIL 06Z THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
06Z-12Z FROM NW TO SE. VFR PREVAILS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR SOUTH COAST UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE 06Z-12Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

THU NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WITH A MODEST NW WIND 10-20 KT DIMINISHING
TOWARD MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA 22Z-
04Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA
21Z-03Z.  GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SKC.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY S/SW WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-6 KFT SATURDAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS /
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE S-COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
FOR N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR. WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE TSRA. CONTINUED S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SOUTH SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS BECOME NW TOWARD
SUNRISE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THU...

SWELLS PEAK AT 5 TO 11 FT TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WATERS.
ADDING TO THE ROUGH SEAS WILL BE A DEVELOPING NW WIND WAVE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY. HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNIGN ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

THU NIGHT...

NW WINDS BECOME N-NE LATE. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS. DIMINISHING SEAS WITH ONLY
THE S/SE OUTER WATERS EXPERIENCING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET
BY MORNING. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S-WINDS. PROLONGED S-FETCH LENDING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET ACROSS THE S/SE WATERS. FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED S-WINDS. WET-WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271815
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW WARMER AIR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BRING LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES...

FINALLY HIT 90 DEGREES AT LOGAN AT 139 PM THIS AFTERNOON. LAST
OCCURRENCE WAS 7/23 WHEN IT WAS 92. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGHS BY A FEW DEGS. A MODEST SW
WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IS HELPING TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT ALONG
WITH DEW PTS REMAINING BELOW 70.

CONVECTION...

12Z NAM ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTIVE QPF AND HAVE DIMINISHED THE EASTWARD TREND...KEEPING
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /500-1000J-KG/ ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND JET
DYNAMICS ARRIVING 00Z-06Z...WELL AFTER PEAKING HEATING. THIS MAY
BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDER NOT LIKELY. WORSE CASE SCENARIO REMAINS AN
ISOLATED STRONG T-STORM POSSIBLE WESTERN CT/MA WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HIGH SURF...

FIRST SET OF SWELLS /SWELL FRONT/ APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WITH BUOY 44097 SOUTHEAST
OF BLOCK ISLAND NOW REPORTING 4 FT SWELLS EVERY 12 SECONDS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SURF BUILDING RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET AT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING OCEAN
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND SUNSET AND OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH 10 PM IN RI AND EASTERN MASS...AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DRAW COOLER DRIER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
MEAN CLEARING SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 5 FOOT
SWELL MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF COOLING ALOFT.
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW LINGERING 80 PCT RH VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND
900 MB. THIS SUGGESTS DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY.
MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS OF 10-12C WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY GET MIXED TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE. THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL AND DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
* SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES... WHICH GENERALLY MEANS A FAST MOVING PATTERN IN PLACE.
NOTING A DECENT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN PUSHING ALONG IN THE GENERAL W-NW UPPER FLOW
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT ALSO TRIES TO SHIFT S...BUT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW...SO MAY SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. NOTING INCREASING VARIANCE AMONGST
THE OP MODEL RUNS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TRYING TO CLEAR THE SHORT
WAVE...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE MOVING IN.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THEN TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING E IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW. WILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VRBL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...WITH
READINGS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS DROPPING
TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 70S. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE HIGH WILL CREST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WORKING IN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY...
TRANSITION DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS W-SW WINDS KICK IN...BRINGING IN THE MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SAT NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC
AND S ONTARIO...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT. CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...UP TO AROUND 80 IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG
WITH GENERAL W WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH S
WILL GET HUNG UP IN THIS UPPER FLOW. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS SUNDAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY...WITH BEST SHOT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORNING. DEWPTS
ALSO INCREASE. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES /ABOUT +2 SD FOR LATE AUGUST/. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALSO WORKS IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...MILDEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH DEWPTS RISING TO THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY...
SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP...AND WHETHER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. FOR
NOW...EXPECT MAINLY DRY BUT WARM CONDITIONS...BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z...ANY -TSRA NOT FIRING UNTIL 20Z/21Z WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH CHANCES FARTHER EAST FADING TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. VFR PREVAILS WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR IN -TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TIL 06Z THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
06Z-12Z FROM NW TO SE. VFR PREVAILS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR SOUTH COAST UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE 06Z-12Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

THU NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WITH A MODEST NW WIND 10-20 KT DIMINISHING
TOWARD MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA 22Z-
04Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA
21Z-03Z.  GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH SKC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z FRI WITH LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS. SEA BREEZES
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

3-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS AT BUOY 44097
SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. THUS SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL HAVE ENTERED
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

============================================================

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS/PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A 5 FOOT SWELL IN THE EARLY NIGHT
AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SWELL BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH 6 TO 9 FOOT
SEAS...MAINLY SWELL...ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT S SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY START TO SUBSIDE LATE. SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL VEER TO E-NE AND
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BECOME S-SW DURING SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD UP
TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271815
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW WARMER AIR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BRING LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES...

FINALLY HIT 90 DEGREES AT LOGAN AT 139 PM THIS AFTERNOON. LAST
OCCURRENCE WAS 7/23 WHEN IT WAS 92. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGHS BY A FEW DEGS. A MODEST SW
WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IS HELPING TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT ALONG
WITH DEW PTS REMAINING BELOW 70.

CONVECTION...

12Z NAM ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTIVE QPF AND HAVE DIMINISHED THE EASTWARD TREND...KEEPING
THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /500-1000J-KG/ ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND JET
DYNAMICS ARRIVING 00Z-06Z...WELL AFTER PEAKING HEATING. THIS MAY
BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
EVENING BUT THUNDER NOT LIKELY. WORSE CASE SCENARIO REMAINS AN
ISOLATED STRONG T-STORM POSSIBLE WESTERN CT/MA WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HIGH SURF...

FIRST SET OF SWELLS /SWELL FRONT/ APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WITH BUOY 44097 SOUTHEAST
OF BLOCK ISLAND NOW REPORTING 4 FT SWELLS EVERY 12 SECONDS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SURF BUILDING RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET AT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING OCEAN
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND SUNSET AND OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH 10 PM IN RI AND EASTERN MASS...AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DRAW COOLER DRIER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
MEAN CLEARING SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 5 FOOT
SWELL MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF COOLING ALOFT.
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW LINGERING 80 PCT RH VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND
900 MB. THIS SUGGESTS DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY.
MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS OF 10-12C WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY GET MIXED TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE. THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL AND DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
* SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES... WHICH GENERALLY MEANS A FAST MOVING PATTERN IN PLACE.
NOTING A DECENT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN PUSHING ALONG IN THE GENERAL W-NW UPPER FLOW
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT ALSO TRIES TO SHIFT S...BUT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW...SO MAY SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. NOTING INCREASING VARIANCE AMONGST
THE OP MODEL RUNS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TRYING TO CLEAR THE SHORT
WAVE...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE MOVING IN.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THEN TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING E IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW. WILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VRBL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...WITH
READINGS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS DROPPING
TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 70S. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE HIGH WILL CREST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WORKING IN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY...
TRANSITION DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS W-SW WINDS KICK IN...BRINGING IN THE MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SAT NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC
AND S ONTARIO...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT. CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...UP TO AROUND 80 IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG
WITH GENERAL W WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH S
WILL GET HUNG UP IN THIS UPPER FLOW. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS SUNDAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY...WITH BEST SHOT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORNING. DEWPTS
ALSO INCREASE. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES /ABOUT +2 SD FOR LATE AUGUST/. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALSO WORKS IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...MILDEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH DEWPTS RISING TO THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY...
SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP...AND WHETHER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. FOR
NOW...EXPECT MAINLY DRY BUT WARM CONDITIONS...BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z...ANY -TSRA NOT FIRING UNTIL 20Z/21Z WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH CHANCES FARTHER EAST FADING TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. VFR PREVAILS WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR IN -TSRA.

AFTER 00Z...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TIL 06Z THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
06Z-12Z FROM NW TO SE. VFR PREVAILS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR SOUTH COAST UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE 06Z-12Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

THU NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WITH A MODEST NW WIND 10-20 KT DIMINISHING
TOWARD MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA 22Z-
04Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA
21Z-03Z.  GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
VCTS AND JUST GO WITH VCSH...THE HIGHER PROBABILITY.

OUTLOOK...FRI THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH SKC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z FRI WITH LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY PRONE AREAS. SEA BREEZES
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

3-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS AT BUOY 44097
SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND. THUS SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL HAVE ENTERED
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

============================================================

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS/PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A 5 FOOT SWELL IN THE EARLY NIGHT
AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SWELL BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH 6 TO 9 FOOT
SEAS...MAINLY SWELL...ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT S SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY START TO SUBSIDE LATE. SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL VEER TO E-NE AND
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BECOME S-SW DURING SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD UP
TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
754 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW WARM AIR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A FRONT
MAY STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS AT 11Z. TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW
SPOTS DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S INCLUDING KOWD...KTAN...KORE
AND KEEN.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING OTHER THAN TEMPS/DEWPTS. BROUGHT
THOSE ELEMENTS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A BAND OF
THICKER CLOUDS. MEANWHILE SUN THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY WILL
GENERATE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO REACH 850 MB...WHERE TEMPS ARE
16-17C. IF WE ATTAIN FULL MIXING THEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR
90. INCREASING SKY COVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MAY LIMIT MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ITS
SEVERITY. INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND CAPE 500-700
J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SIMILAR MID 40S TOTALS BUT IS MORE GUNG-
HO WITH CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. EVEN WITH THE MILDER ECMWF
VALUES...GENERAL THUNDER IS REASONABLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY. MOST OF THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL
BE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS AT 850 MB
WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR
HIGHER ARE AT BEST REACHING OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS AROUND
00Z...NEAR SUNSET. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. EVEN IF WE
STAY NEARER TO 1.5 INCHES...THIS WILL BE AROUND 1.5-1.9 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PUTTING IT TOGETHER...CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS BUT BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.
FIVE FOOT SWELL DOESN/T ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL AFTER
00Z. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY...EXPECT THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND SUNSET AND OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH 10 PM IN RI AND EASTERN MASS...AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DRAW COOLER DRIER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
MEAN CLEARING SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 5 FOOT
SWELL MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF COOLING ALOFT.
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW LINGERING 80 PCT RH VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND
900 MB. THIS SUGGESTS DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY.
MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS OF 10-12C WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY GET MIXED TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE. THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL AND DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
* SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES... WHICH GENERALLY MEANS A FAST MOVING PATTERN IN PLACE.
NOTING A DECENT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN PUSHING ALONG IN THE GENERAL W-NW UPPER FLOW
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT ALSO TRIES TO SHIFT S...BUT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW...SO MAY SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. NOTING INCREASING VARIANCE AMONGST
THE OP MODEL RUNS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TRYING TO CLEAR THE SHORT
WAVE...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE MOVING IN.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THEN TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING E IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW. WILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VRBL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...WITH
READINGS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS DROPPING
TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 70S. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE HIGH WILL CREST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WORKING IN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY...
TRANSITION DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS W-SW WINDS KICK IN...BRINGING IN THE MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SAT NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC
AND S ONTARIO...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT. CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...UP TO AROUND 80 IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG
WITH GENERAL W WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH S
WILL GET HUNG UP IN THIS UPPER FLOW. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS SUNDAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY...WITH BEST SHOT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORNING. DEWPTS
ALSO INCREASE. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES /ABOUT +2 SD FOR LATE AUGUST/. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALSO WORKS IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...MILDEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH DEWPTS RISING TO THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY...
SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP...AND WHETHER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. FOR
NOW...EXPECT MAINLY DRY BUT WARM CONDITIONS...BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY INLAND FROM AROUND MHT TO BAF AND BDL BUT
THE POTENTIAL SPREADS E TO BOS-PVD LATER IN THE DAY. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR UNDER THE CORE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...ALSO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN EASTERN
MASS/RI WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW-WINDS PREVAILING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT HIT
FOR TERMINAL SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW-WINDS PREVAILING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND 19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT HIT
FOR TERMINAL SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SKC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG
AFTER 06Z FRI WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS. SEA BREEZES FRIDAY.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS/PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A 5 FOOT SWELL IN THE EARLY NIGHT
AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SWELL BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH 6 TO 9 FOOT
SEAS...MAINLY SWELL...ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT S SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY START TO SUBSIDE LATE. SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL VEER TO E-NE AND
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BECOME S-SW DURING SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD UP
TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
754 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW WARM AIR ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL
PASS WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A FRONT
MAY STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS AT 11Z. TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW
SPOTS DROPPING DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S INCLUDING KOWD...KTAN...KORE
AND KEEN.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING OTHER THAN TEMPS/DEWPTS. BROUGHT
THOSE ELEMENTS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A BAND OF
THICKER CLOUDS. MEANWHILE SUN THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY WILL
GENERATE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO REACH 850 MB...WHERE TEMPS ARE
16-17C. IF WE ATTAIN FULL MIXING THEN MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR
90. INCREASING SKY COVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MAY LIMIT MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ITS
SEVERITY. INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND CAPE 500-700
J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SIMILAR MID 40S TOTALS BUT IS MORE GUNG-
HO WITH CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. EVEN WITH THE MILDER ECMWF
VALUES...GENERAL THUNDER IS REASONABLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY. MOST OF THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL
BE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS AT 850 MB
WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR
HIGHER ARE AT BEST REACHING OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS AROUND
00Z...NEAR SUNSET. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. EVEN IF WE
STAY NEARER TO 1.5 INCHES...THIS WILL BE AROUND 1.5-1.9 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PUTTING IT TOGETHER...CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS BUT BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.
FIVE FOOT SWELL DOESN/T ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL AFTER
00Z. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY...EXPECT THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND SUNSET AND OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH 10 PM IN RI AND EASTERN MASS...AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND DRAW COOLER DRIER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
MEAN CLEARING SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WITH 5 FOOT
SWELL MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF COOLING ALOFT.
MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW LINGERING 80 PCT RH VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND
900 MB. THIS SUGGESTS DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY.
MIXING WILL REACH TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS OF 10-12C WOULD SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. WINDS ALOFT WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY GET MIXED TO THE
SURFACE IN GUSTS.

HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE. THE HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL AND DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
* SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES... WHICH GENERALLY MEANS A FAST MOVING PATTERN IN PLACE.
NOTING A DECENT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN PUSHING ALONG IN THE GENERAL W-NW UPPER FLOW
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT ALSO TRIES TO SHIFT S...BUT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THIS UPPER FLOW...SO MAY SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. NOTING INCREASING VARIANCE AMONGST
THE OP MODEL RUNS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TRYING TO CLEAR THE SHORT
WAVE...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE MOVING IN.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THEN TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING E IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW. WILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VRBL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...WITH
READINGS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS DROPPING
TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 70S. NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE HIGH WILL CREST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WORKING IN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY...
TRANSITION DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS W-SW WINDS KICK IN...BRINGING IN THE MILDER
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SAT NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC
AND S ONTARIO...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT. CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S...UP TO AROUND 80 IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG
WITH GENERAL W WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH S
WILL GET HUNG UP IN THIS UPPER FLOW. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS SUNDAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY...WITH BEST SHOT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORNING. DEWPTS
ALSO INCREASE. PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ON ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES /ABOUT +2 SD FOR LATE AUGUST/. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALSO WORKS IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...MILDEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH DEWPTS RISING TO THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY...
SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP...AND WHETHER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. FOR
NOW...EXPECT MAINLY DRY BUT WARM CONDITIONS...BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY INLAND FROM AROUND MHT TO BAF AND BDL BUT
THE POTENTIAL SPREADS E TO BOS-PVD LATER IN THE DAY. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR UNDER THE CORE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...ALSO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND MAYBE A STRONG WIND GUST. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN EASTERN
MASS/RI WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER AROUND 5000 FEET FROM MIDDAY TO
EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW-WINDS PREVAILING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT HIT
FOR TERMINAL SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW-WINDS PREVAILING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AROUND 19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT HIT
FOR TERMINAL SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SKC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY FOG
AFTER 06Z FRI WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS. SEA BREEZES FRIDAY.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS/PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
GOOD VSBY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A 5 FOOT SWELL IN THE EARLY NIGHT
AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SWELL BY MORNING.

THURSDAY...SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH 6 TO 9 FOOT
SEAS...MAINLY SWELL...ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
BE GUSTY NEAR SHORE WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT S SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAY START TO SUBSIDE LATE. SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL VEER TO E-NE AND
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BECOME S-SW DURING SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD UP
TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ020-022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ006>008.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities