000
FXUS61 KBOX 200113
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGIN A TREND TOWARD WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT AT LEAST A FEW BOUTS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS AREA...WHICH WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN WAY OF FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.
AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THU NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO PATCHY GROUND
FOG AROUND SUNRISE THU AND AGAIN EARLY FRI AT SOME OF USUAL FOG-
PRONE AIRPORTS /KOWD KTAN KEEN KORE/.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE THU 15Z-20Z
/12008KT/ AND MAY INCLUDE IN 06Z THU TAF IF IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS. SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER MA REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY CT WAS WITHIN 0.5 FT OF
ITS 12 FT FLOOD STAGE WED EVENING. PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC IT
WAS CRESTING AND IS NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED 12 FT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...JWD
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 192332
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO BRING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BETTER IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.
AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS. SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 192004
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY THEN SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND ALLOWS AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT
DOWN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND.
AM EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE ONE MISSING
INGREDIENT IS A WELL-DEFINED TRIGGER. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL EACH
DAY...THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.
ACTIVITY ON OTHER DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTN/EVE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS. SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191953
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH AT LEAST A FEW
BOUTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. THE
URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD SPOTS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY AFTER A COOL START. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME SO LOW TEMPS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WILL LET SCA EXPIRE FOR THESE WATERS AT 7
PM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THESE
NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT
HARTFORD /BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/.
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191741
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...SO IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITION EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU
NIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SEA BREEZES END BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES LIKELY RE-DEVELOPS LATE
THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS WERE DIMINISHING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN ALTANTIC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191534
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1134 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WELL UP INTO THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AS WINDS WERE DIMINISHING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN ALTANTIC WATERS FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191322
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
921 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WELL UP INTO THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191057
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
RAIN HAS NOW MOVED WELL OFFSHORE SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. SO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BUT
STILL EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION AT 7 AM.
FEELS EVEN COOLER OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS COURTSEY OF A BRISK
NNE WIND 15-25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX BY MIDDAY AS LOW PRES
RACES OFFSHORE. AS PGRAD SLACKENS AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY.
INLAND TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY THANKS TO STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S. PREVIOUSY DISCUSSION BELOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------
IN WAKE OF THE BROAD FRONTAL DISTURBANCE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS AROUND +7C/ BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. ANTICIPATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
AROUND 4-6 KFT. SHOULD SEE THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND
DRIER AIR...WHILE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS /FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH A 50-50 BLEND
OF BIAS- CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
FORECASTED MIX- DOWN OF DRIER AIR/. FASTEST OF WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EARLY IN THE DAY... RELAXING INTO EVENING. HIGHS AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 70S...A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
VFR MOST TERMINALS AT 7 AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHY IFR ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY MID MORNING.
GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WILL SLACKEN BY MIDDAY
AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE LIKELY AROUND THE
MIDDAY HOUR.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190742
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A PERIOD OF DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AND BEGINS A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE BROAD TROUGH DISTURBANCE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEHIND WHICH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
DOMINATE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARDS SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...NO FLOODING ANTICIPATED. ANY PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN
TO BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE.
TODAY...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
SHORELINE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.
IN WAKE OF THE BROAD FRONTAL DISTURBANCE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS AROUND +7C/ BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. ANTICIPATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
AROUND 4-6 KFT. SHOULD SEE THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND
DRIER AIR...WHILE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS /FOLLOWED THROUGH WITH A 50-50 BLEND
OF BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH FORECASTED
MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR/. FASTEST OF WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN
THE DAY... RELAXING INTO EVENING. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW TO MID
70S...A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATING EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WILL GO LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...NOTING THE
COLDER SPOTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN...AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE MID 40S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH. BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. LOOKING TO
BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-70S. COULD
SEE A FEW SPOTS WARM TO VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ESP EARLY NXT WK
* WET JUN PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRIER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TYPE REGIME...A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
DISPLACE THE POLAR JET FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER MORE HUMID AIR
INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE OVERALL TREND
THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AND SAT...TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY COME SUN/MON AS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MAKES A PUSH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING...BUT DIFFICULT
TO BE MORE SPECIFIC CONCERNING TIMING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
NW TO SE...MVFR-IFR CIGS LIFTING VFR...VSBYS IMPROVING INTO
MORNING AND AS LATE AS MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...PREVAILING VFR WITH
SCT-BKN CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCALES. BUT ANTICIPATING VFR CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MIDDAY HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER THU NGT THRU FRI NIGHT. SAT AND BEYOND...
LOW PROBABILITY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE WATERS ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST...
WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS RESULTING IN FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS AMPLIFYING WAVES
HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AND/OR
SUNDAY WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE
WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNING RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL
ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A PERIOD OF EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTIALLY...LOWS COULD
REACH RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HERE IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 20TH:
BOSTON... 47 IN 1918
HARTFORD... 45 IN 1918
PROVIDENCE... 45 IN 1918
WORCESTER... 37 IN 1926
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...SIPPRELL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 190231
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE /INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY/ ROTATES AROUND THE LOW CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER BY MORNING.
OF CONSIDERABLE NOTE IS THE LINE OF SHOWERS RE-EMERGING ALONG A
LINE FROM COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE BACK INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
OF NY. THIS IS LIKELY THE H85 FRONT LOCATED ABOVE THE INVERSION
PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVELS IS LIKELY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT IN A REGION OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES /COLD POOL EVIDENT AT THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE
INVERSION TO AROUND H6 PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY THUNDER...AND FEEL WHAT GOES UP WILL QUICKLY GO DOWN. ANY
CELLS SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN FOR LONG.
FEEL THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DISSIPATED AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACCORDINGLY. WEATHER FORECAST GRIDS HAVE
ARE AMENDED ACCORDINGLY. WORST OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.
A SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH WEAK WINDS AND POTENTIAL CLEARING...THE
EXPECTED COOLING COUPLED WITH ANTECEDANT RAINS FROM EARLIER TODAY
MAKING A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE MORESO THAN HIGH-RES
MODELS CAN INFER WILL YIELD FOG ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WFO STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182331
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS IN A LINE ROUGHLY FROM NASHUA NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
WESTFIELD MASS. THE BEST PWATS ARE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MORE
IN LINE WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OUT OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FLOODING WITH THEM. AS MENTIONED...THERE IS QUITE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NANTUCKET THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182210
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DROPPING
HARTFORD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT
PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THESE AREAS...OR DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182134
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182037
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181941
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181818
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181329
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
925 AM UPDATE...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WERE IN PLACE AT MID MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME PEEKS OF
SUN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...THERE WAS A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS MAY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
SO AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181107
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN AT 7 AM AND THIS
WILL LIKELY HOLD OUR TEMPS IN THE M70S TODAY...ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND
THUS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH
00Z ECMWF AND 03Z SREF ONLY OFFER 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS THAN THE 1500-2000J/KG FROM MON AFTN. DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
INTERIOR MA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FIRE ON...HOWEVER NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE PWATS INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STD
FROM CLIMO. THUS ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME HERE 21Z-03Z COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE.
SO DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
SUGGEST A LOWER RISK TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS THINKING LINES UP NICELY WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
WITH JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ERODE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REMOVE TSTMS THIS MORNING AND CONFINE TO
AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180805
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF WITH
SUNRISE.
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR VALLEY
TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN ATTENTION
FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY INTO EVENING.
ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180220
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE. SOME RENEWED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WHILE
THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING EXHIBITS THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BROADER SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE CYCLONIC
CONTAINS LITTLE LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL ENERGY...NOR SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. QUIET AND DRY FORECAST INTO MORNING...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO COVER THE BASES.
SO ATTENTION TURNS TO OTHER POTENTIAL THREATS...NAMELY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
11-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH OBSCURING MID-HIGH CLOUD. HRRR/RUC HAS
DONE VERY WELL THIS EVENING WITH HANDLING EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS. MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TOWARDS MORNING...AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT ACCORDINGLY. LOW STRATUS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE.
ALSO...AM CONCERNED OVER THE ANTECEDENT RAINS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE SHORES. WHILE THE HRRR/RUC DOES NOT FEEL THIS TO
BE THE CASE...WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE DEWPOINT ALLOWING FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE
MA TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172345
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST
MA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MOVING OFF THE COAST.
A FEW OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE MAY WORK THERE
WAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY...AREAL
COVERAGE OF THEM WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD END UP DRY
ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS WITH THE WET GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172236
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN
CONNECTICUT NORTHWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF PEA TO 3/4 INCH HAIL...BUT HAS BEEN
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
THE LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT MOST OF
THE REGION AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO WE
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. THEY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
DIMNISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172039
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING***
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE
MLCAPE VALUES WERE ONLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SINCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SO FAR...THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MANY THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS DO SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME SEVERE. STILL
THINK THAT THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES LIKE
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW. STRONG SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SO IF WE CAN INCREASE THE CAPES A BIT
MORE IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET A FEW GOOD STORMS GOING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171801
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING***
2 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...KJC/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171745
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES... UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING
HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSRUE OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND
BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171629
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171343
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171338
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171125
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
CI SHIELD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
LOTS OF MORNING SUNSHINE...WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY AND LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPES
OF 1000+ J/KG WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WX.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING
ON HIGHER DWPTS THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF
MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT
6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170749
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ONLY REMNANTS ARE A FEW MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECT THAT THESE TOO WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WITH TIME THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +13C
TODAY...THIS FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX THESE VALUES DOWN EASILY.
EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
DWPTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL BEGINNINGTO
CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING ON HIGHER DWPTS
THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY
FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE
DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG
INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT 6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS
HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FLOODSTAGE BY MID MORNING.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
HIGHER DWPTS...POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IS A BIT HIGHER EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AM NOTING WINDS ARE REMAINING ABOVE 5KT AT MANY
OBS SITES SO FOG WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS. OTHERWISE... A BIT MORE MILD AND MUGGY MORNING BUT WITH
SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
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