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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.  STILL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM UPDATE...

DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.  STILL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCALIZED IFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AS THE SUN HEATS UP. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT AS THE SUN HEATS UP. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A
BACK DOOR FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
MIX OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES
STILL REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAY HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A
CHC OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE AWAY TO ANOTHER GREAT
DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...


TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE AWAY TO ANOTHER GREAT
DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...


TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
* HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES MON-THURS

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD. BUT OVERALL
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ON
MONDAY. WESTERN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX
OUT AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR 20 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE
REACHING AROUND 16C. THIS WILL YIELD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90F.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
MORE PRONOUNCE WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT CLOSE TO IMMEDIATE COAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT WESTERN ZONES STILL
REACHING UPPER 80S NEAR 90F.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 17-19C. WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE U80S TO L90S. THIS COULD POTENTIAL LEAD TO THE CT RIVER
VALLEY SEEING A 3 TO 4 DAYS HEAT WAVE. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO THE BEST DAY FOR A CHC OF
PRECIP AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS
SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY
BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 850 MB
RESULTING IN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRI WITH READINGS
MOSTLY 80-85 DEGREES EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BUT MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO THE N WHICH WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY N AREAS. OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S URBAN CENTERS
AND COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AND GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVES IN
ALONG WITH INCREASING KI VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT CANT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 15C SUPPORT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S...COOLER S COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT INCREASING INTO THE 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
IT WILL BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290533
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS AND IT
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE COLDER RADIATORS OF W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290533
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS AND IT
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE COLDER RADIATORS OF W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR FOG DEVELOPING IN THE TYPICAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A FEW HOURS OF A WEAK
SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 282022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS. PATCHY
GROUND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS. PATCHY
GROUND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281906
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND.  VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING...TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.  PATCHY GROUND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN - UPDATE COMING SOON
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281906
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND.  VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING...TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.  PATCHY GROUND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN - UPDATE COMING SOON
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AT MID AFTERNOON DESPITE PLENTY OF FAIR
WEATHER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THOUGH...SO BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.  A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THEM DEVELOPING IS NOT AS HIGH
AS THEY WERE TODAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH QUITE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  SHOULD
SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ATMOSPHERE WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 15 OR
16Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 50F...IN FACT SPRINGFIELD FELL TO 49F! ANY PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR LEADING TO A GREAT DAY. ASIDE FOR
A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 50F...IN FACT SPRINGFIELD FELL TO 49F! ANY PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR LEADING TO A GREAT DAY. ASIDE FOR
A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 50F...IN FACT SPRINGFIELD FELL TO 49F! ANY PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR LEADING TO A GREAT DAY. ASIDE FOR
A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 280140
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
STILL SOME HIGH BASED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST OF
SNE IS CLOUD FREE. NORTHERN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND ISLANDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280140
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
STILL SOME HIGH BASED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST OF
SNE IS CLOUD FREE. NORTHERN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND ISLANDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM UPDATE...

FABULOUS LATE SUMMER WEATHER IN PROGRESS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE 70S AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DEW PTS IN THE 50S
PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRATO-CU ACROSS NY STATE AND INTO VT. NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUD COVER HERE IN SNE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HEIGHT RISES HERE IN SNE RESULTING IN MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA AT TIMES.

NEVERTHELESS VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND L80S PER UPSTREAM 12Z ALY SOUNDING ALONG WITH DEW PTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE MODEST EAST SWELLS OF AROUND 4 FT
EVERY 9 SECONDS IMPACTING EAST FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURF OF 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
FEW SETS OF WAVES UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
TO PERHAPS ROUGH SURF AT TIMES AT THESE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF STRONG RIPS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST
FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE A GREAT
BEACH DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. WNW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM UPDATE...

FABULOUS LATE SUMMER WEATHER IN PROGRESS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE 70S AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DEW PTS IN THE 50S
PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRATO-CU ACROSS NY STATE AND INTO VT. NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUD COVER HERE IN SNE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HEIGHT RISES HERE IN SNE RESULTING IN MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA AT TIMES.

NEVERTHELESS VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND L80S PER UPSTREAM 12Z ALY SOUNDING ALONG WITH DEW PTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE MODEST EAST SWELLS OF AROUND 4 FT
EVERY 9 SECONDS IMPACTING EAST FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURF OF 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
FEW SETS OF WAVES UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
TO PERHAPS ROUGH SURF AT TIMES AT THESE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF STRONG RIPS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST
FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE A GREAT
BEACH DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. WNW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS VT AND UPSTATE NY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER SPILLS INTO W NEW ENG WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...MOCLEAR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND W MA OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 60-65
URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS VT AND UPSTATE NY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER SPILLS INTO W NEW ENG WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...MOCLEAR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND W MA OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 60-65
URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





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