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000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK MUCH COOLER WEATHER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK MUCH COOLER WEATHER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK MUCH COOLER WEATHER
OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION MONDAY. MILD WEATHER TUESDAY ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID- TO LATE-WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER
WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS TO RELAX ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BUT
A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT OVER THE WATERS AGAINST
THE DEPARTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD SOME
STRONG N-WINDS ACROSS THE E-WATERS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS INTO THE MORNING DESPITE THE STRONG INVERSION AS INDICATED
BY THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING.

IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS...EXPECT N WIND GUSTS AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH INTO THE MORNING HOURS DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTS
E.

SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LIKELY TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY. WILL
SEE LOWS DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-30S BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS BY MORNING REGISTER LOWS
AROUND THE 30-DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH OF THE
AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N-FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH REMAINING
BLUSTERY ACROSS E-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND / CAPE / ISLANDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 KTS. N-WINDS SHIFT E AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY BECOMING
LIGHT. SKC. BY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THAT WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOW-END
VFR CIGS AND -SHRA ACROSS THE W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER OUT
OF THE S/SE AND INCREASING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TILL MORNING FOR ALL E-WATERS
WITH THE THREAT OF BLUSTERY N-WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KTS SUBSEQUENT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS S UP AGAINST THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SE AND OUT TO SEA.

EXPECT BOATING WEATHER TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS RELAX
TOWARDS MORNING VEERING OUT OF THE E...TURNING SE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SW-WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1011 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION MONDAY. MILD WEATHER TUESDAY ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID- TO LATE-WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER
WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S OUT OF CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS TO RELAX ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BUT
A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT OVER THE WATERS AGAINST
THE DEPARTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD SOME
STRONG N-WINDS ACROSS THE E-WATERS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS INTO THE MORNING DESPITE THE STRONG INVERSION AS INDICATED
BY THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING.

IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS...EXPECT N WIND GUSTS AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH INTO THE MORNING HOURS DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEPARTS
E.

SPOTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LIKELY TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY. WILL
SEE LOWS DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-30S BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS BY MORNING REGISTER LOWS
AROUND THE 30-DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH OF THE
AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N-FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH REMAINING
BLUSTERY ACROSS E-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND / CAPE / ISLANDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 KTS. N-WINDS SHIFT E AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY BECOMING
LIGHT. SKC. BY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THAT WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOW-END
VFR CIGS AND -SHRA ACROSS THE W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER OUT
OF THE S/SE AND INCREASING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TILL MORNING FOR ALL E-WATERS
WITH THE THREAT OF BLUSTERY N-WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KTS SUBSEQUENT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS S UP AGAINST THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SE AND OUT TO SEA.

EXPECT BOATING WEATHER TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS RELAX
TOWARDS MORNING VEERING OUT OF THE E...TURNING SE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SW-WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182341
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES ARE
CURRENTLY EXITING OFF THE COAST OF ESSEX CO MA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE END OF IMPACTS FOR THIS FEATURE AS ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW NOT FAR BEHIND. THEREFORE...A
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW UPPER LVL CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH. MINS MAINLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW 40S AFTER THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MAINLY TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS SEA BREEZES DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN.
OTHERWISE VFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. N WINDS WILL SHIFT DUE TO SEA BREEZES BY ABOUT LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO
SEE LOW VFR CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS IN THE W BY EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182341
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES ARE
CURRENTLY EXITING OFF THE COAST OF ESSEX CO MA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE END OF IMPACTS FOR THIS FEATURE AS ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW NOT FAR BEHIND. THEREFORE...A
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW UPPER LVL CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH. MINS MAINLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW 40S AFTER THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MAINLY TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS SEA BREEZES DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN.
OTHERWISE VFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. N WINDS WILL SHIFT DUE TO SEA BREEZES BY ABOUT LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO
SEE LOW VFR CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS IN THE W BY EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181959
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181959
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181959
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181959
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COASTAL SEABREEZE HAS MOVED ALMOST AS FAR
INLAND AS 495. BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COAST...TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.  AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING BEAUTIFUL...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MUCH
OF THE AREA.  EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
AAH...SPRINGTIME IN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER MANY DAYS OF RELATIVELY
PLEASANT WEATHER THE DAMPER ON MANY A GREAT PLAN...A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF WILL DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PERSISTENT CUTOFF OVER THE SW WILL FINALLY GET PHASED WITH NRN
STREAM ENERGY TO FORM THIS DEEP MEANDERING CUTOFF BY LATE MON.
NEGATIVE TRENDING AO/NAO SUGGESTS A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME...SO THIS
CUTOFF WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME GOING ANYWHERE. IN FACT...IT/S
PROGGED TO START IN THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MON...AND ONLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. IN SPITE OF THIS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOULD WORK WELL AS A BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. MOISTURE LOADING IS FROM THE TOP DOWN HOWEVER AND MOVING IN
FROM THE SW. THE INITIAL SFC REFLECTION MON IS AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT...VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE LAYER AND A BUILDING LLJ
ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE W. PWATS OF 2 STD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH THE S LLJ OF 60-70KT TO
YIELD MODERATE RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
ON MON TO SEE PRECIP AT THE SFC AS THERE IS A VERY ROBUST DRY
LAYER NEAR THE SFC TO OVERCOME...BUT SUSPECT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SOAKING RAIN DURING THE DAY-EVENING MON. ALTHOUGH A MODEST BREAK
IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
YIELD A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE DAY ON TUE. DRY SLOT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION BY
LATE DAY TUE SO SUSPECT WITH COLD ADVECTION AN END TO PRECIP BY
TUE AFTERNOON. FINAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST RELATIVELY DRY WX ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY SHIFTING E WITH TIME...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN A REGION WHERE ANY LEFTOVER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...
ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THE E
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTLING JUST TO THE N. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ALOFT YIELDING MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND BETTER FOCUS FOR LEFT AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...NOT A WASHOUT THIS PERIOD AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIOD
DRY SPELLS. OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM.

SAT...
CUTOFF SHIFTS E ALLOWING STACKED NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE SUCH THAT
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SPITE OF THE DRIER
AIR SHIFTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG UNDER E WINDS WHICH MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT NEAR
THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE FROM
VFR TO IFR.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WED...SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR NW FLOW. SHOWERS ON THU COULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME UP BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS.  THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEY WILL COME UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD 34+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THAT LOOKS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 10-13 FT BY MON EVENING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. LOW VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY WED...SUCH THAT NO HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL AND 20
KT WINDS MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  FOCUS IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN/ IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WIND GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPRING TIDES OF 11.5-12.1 FT ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUN ON THE
E COAST. THE HIGHEST FOR BOS HARBOR OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT AT 12.1 FT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE AND SEAS
WILL HAVE NOT YET BUILT OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR TIDE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING HIGH TIDES MON AFTERNOON OF 11.8 FT...SURGE
MAY BE A FOOT OR MORE BY THIS POINT WITH 14 FT SEAS AND E FLOW
GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KT. THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
PERIOD OF SPLASHOVER DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WELL ON OUR
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WELL ON OUR
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN
A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND.
THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WELL ON OUR
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

* THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEABREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-
  WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15
  KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE.
  INCREASING LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE ERODES AS IT IS PUSHED
  OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS THIS EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY
  STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1144 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WELL ON OUR
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1144 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WELL ON OUR
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...PORTIONS OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND SKY FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
HARTFORD HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. IT CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLE HADDAM.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND SKY FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
HARTFORD HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. IT CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLE HADDAM.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND SKY FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
HARTFORD HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. IT CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLE HADDAM.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND SKY FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
HARTFORD HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. IT CONTINUES FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLE HADDAM.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS TURNING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING LATE
  ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION AT SUNRISE. LOCATIONS
WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS HAVE TEMPS IN THE 30S ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. MEANWHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING URBAN AREAS REMAIN WELL
MIXED WITH SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U40S TO L50S! THUS
COOL AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS STRONG MID APRIL SUNSHINE GOES TO WORK. THEREFORE
EXPECT RAPID TEMP RISES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S!

THIS IS WELL COVERED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS VEERING TURING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING
  LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION AT SUNRISE. LOCATIONS
WITH CALM OR LIGHT WINDS HAVE TEMPS IN THE 30S ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. MEANWHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING URBAN AREAS REMAIN WELL
MIXED WITH SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U40S TO L50S! THUS
COOL AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS STRONG MID APRIL SUNSHINE GOES TO WORK. THEREFORE
EXPECT RAPID TEMP RISES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S!

THIS IS WELL COVERED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

====================================================================

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

650 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS VEERING TURING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING
  LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS VEERING TURING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING
  LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN
THE WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS VEERING TURING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING
  LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A
WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MILD
WEATHER TUE ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. THEN MID TO LATE WEEK THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD MUCH COOLER WEATHER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE
RISK OF MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE FORECAST SURELY NOT PLAYING OUT ACROSS NE MA
AS THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED THE SE SWEEPING
POTENT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE FURTHER NE ACROSS NH/ME. THIS TAKES THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE EQUATION ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER. WILL STILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS FOR N/NE
MA.

OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ALONG COLD FRONT PARENT TO SE SWEEPING IMPULSE
AND THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY BLUSTERY NW-WINDS. WITH THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD WARMING INTO THE LOW-70S AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO BECOME WELL-MIXED UP TO H7
ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE WITH AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECTING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN/ WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE E-COAST
PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BY THE
STRONG NW-FLOW...BUT THAT TAKING PLACE CLOSER TO EVENING.

SO BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH WAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH HAS NOW BEEN
CONVERED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WITH A SPECIAL
WX STATEMENT FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES PREVIOUSLY ADDRESSED IN THE
WATCH. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LOW-70S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOWER CT-VALLEY WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID-70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT...

N/NW-WINDS DIMINISHING DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. EARLIER H925 +14C TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK OVERNIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. EXPECT ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-30S.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE. COOLER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE WITH H925 TEMPERATURES +4-6C. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUD
INCREASING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET WX
EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-60S...COOLER ALONG THE
SHORES WITH ANTICIPATED VEERING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY
WATERS. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MON/MON NGT...WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN
* TUE...DRYING TREND AND MILD
* WED-FRI...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A TYPICAL SPRING-
LIKE BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH NAO AND AO BECOMING
FAIRLY NEGATIVE ESPECIALLY THE NAO. IN ADDITION THE PNA REMAINS
POSITIVE BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE EPO BECOMES VERY NEGATIVE. THUS A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
KICK-OFF WITH STREAMS MERGING LATE SUN/SUN NGT...SENDING SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MON/MON NGT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ANOMALOUS PWAT AND WIND ANOMALIES WITHIN THIS MOIST/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN AS
TRIPLE POINT LOW RIDES THE COASTLINE.

DAILY DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGING OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. DRY
  WEATHER PREVAILS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS.

* MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND GEFS HAVE SPED UP ONSET OF PRECIP WITH RAIN
  OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER NON NCEP MODELS
  SUCH AS ECENS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH EC AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH
  PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
  GIVEN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN A SLOWER ONSET SEEMS
  REASONABLE. GIVEN TIME RANGE A MODEL BLEND OF POPS APPEARS
  PRUDENT. THUS THINKING MARATHON BEGINS DRY BUT INCREASING CHANCES
  OF RAIN FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN REMAINS
  LIKELY AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THE COASTLINE ACTING ON PWATS
  +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /SD/ ABOVE CLIMO ALONG WITH STRONG ATLC
  INFLOW WITH WIND ANOMALIES +3 SD FROM CLIMO. THIS WILL YIELD A
  HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL APPROACHING 1" WITH A
  LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL UP TO 1.5". AS FOR
  WINDS...SOUNDINGS BECOME INVERTED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
  ADVECTION. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS BLYR IS INITIALLY COOL
  DURING THE MORNING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE WINDS IN THE
  MORNING COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TUESDAY...COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT AFTERNOON PENDING EXACT
  TIMING ON DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
  MOISTURE. APPEARS RISK OF MORNING SHOWERS WITH COLUMN DRYING
  DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS
  OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THUS IF SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT
  IN THE AFTN COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

* WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER AS GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL LOW
  TRAVERSES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL COMBINED
  WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
  ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. NOT EXPECTING RAIN ALL THE TIME.
  THUS WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

* INTO MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CIGS / VSBYS FOR SE MA ERODE
  TOWARDS MORNING. VFR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* TODAY...VFR. SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE E. INCREASING W/NW-WINDS
  OVER THE INTERIOR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. BEST CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR CIGS AND
  -SHRA ACROSS NE MA.

* TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.

* SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS VEERING TURING E/SE AND ONSHORE. INCREASING
  LATE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.

* KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARDS
  MIDDAY...ERODING AS IT IS PUSHED OFFSHORE BY STRONG W/NW-WINDS
  BY EVENING.

* KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
  BY STRONGER NW-WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

* SUN NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

* MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. LIFR
  POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z. E/SE WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST.
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* TUE...LIFR/IFR TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
  SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

* WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
5-FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING BEHIND WHICH W/NW-FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS COULD RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET FOR THE OVERIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
EARLY HALF OF SUNDAY BY WHICH POINT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO RELAX. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY-SHIFT TO EVALUATE AND MAKE THE CALL AS TO WHETHER SMALL-
CRAFTS SHOULD BE ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LEFT OVER HIGH SEAS IN THE FORM OF SE SWELLS. WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW
PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VSBY IN MORNING FOG AND SHOWERS IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE SHORES WHICH ARE LIKELY
TO SEA-BREEZE WITH AN ONSHORE MOIST FLOW /OUTLINED BY THE PRIOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/.

FOCUS IS ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND THE
LOW-70S ALLOWING FOR DEEP-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR AND
FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. EXPECTING NW-WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH /STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN/
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. THIS IS NOT HELPFUL TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHERE
FRIDAYS WET WEATHER WAS NOTHING OF A WASHOUT. ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. SO EXPECT IT TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRY.

BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONDITIONS THAT MEET FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 20 MPH MAKE THIS A MARGINAL EVENT.
PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
FROM THE STATE OF MA...WILL REVERT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE STATE OF CT...WHILE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR E MA...AS WELL AS NW RI.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180221
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS THE REGION...
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON ANTICIPATED LOW TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. DEWPOINTS AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY WERE
AROUND THE UPPER-40S...AND WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW SUCH CROSSOVER VALUES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCEEDING AM
EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...IN ADDITION TO SE MA WHICH WAS THE LAST TO SEE RAIN
EARLIER TODAY AND HAD THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME TO DRY OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CONDITIONS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND ANY CLEARING WILL EASILY RESULT
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR SE MA. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LOWS
DOWN AROUND THE MID- TO LOW-40S WITH COLDEST SPOTS ALONG THE
S-SHORE ADJACENT TO COLDER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

IFR-LIFR FOG REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR S/SE MA AND LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. WITH
LIGHT WINDS FORECAST...THE PROBLEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BY WHICH POINT WINDS INCREASE AND SCOUR OUT THE
LOW VSBYS.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINAL. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW
AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH FOG ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORECAST OVER THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SCOUR DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD AS WINDS INCREASE. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180221
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS THE REGION...
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON ANTICIPATED LOW TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. DEWPOINTS AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY WERE
AROUND THE UPPER-40S...AND WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW SUCH CROSSOVER VALUES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCEEDING AM
EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...IN ADDITION TO SE MA WHICH WAS THE LAST TO SEE RAIN
EARLIER TODAY AND HAD THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME TO DRY OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CONDITIONS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND ANY CLEARING WILL EASILY RESULT
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR SE MA. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LOWS
DOWN AROUND THE MID- TO LOW-40S WITH COLDEST SPOTS ALONG THE
S-SHORE ADJACENT TO COLDER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

IFR-LIFR FOG REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR S/SE MA AND LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. WITH
LIGHT WINDS FORECAST...THE PROBLEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BY WHICH POINT WINDS INCREASE AND SCOUR OUT THE
LOW VSBYS.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINAL. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW
AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH FOG ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORECAST OVER THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SCOUR DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD AS WINDS INCREASE. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180221
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS THE REGION...
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON ANTICIPATED LOW TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. DEWPOINTS AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY WERE
AROUND THE UPPER-40S...AND WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW SUCH CROSSOVER VALUES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCEEDING AM
EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...IN ADDITION TO SE MA WHICH WAS THE LAST TO SEE RAIN
EARLIER TODAY AND HAD THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME TO DRY OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CONDITIONS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND ANY CLEARING WILL EASILY RESULT
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR SE MA. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LOWS
DOWN AROUND THE MID- TO LOW-40S WITH COLDEST SPOTS ALONG THE
S-SHORE ADJACENT TO COLDER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

IFR-LIFR FOG REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR S/SE MA AND LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. WITH
LIGHT WINDS FORECAST...THE PROBLEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BY WHICH POINT WINDS INCREASE AND SCOUR OUT THE
LOW VSBYS.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINAL. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW
AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH FOG ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORECAST OVER THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SCOUR DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD AS WINDS INCREASE. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180221
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS THE REGION...
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON ANTICIPATED LOW TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. DEWPOINTS AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY WERE
AROUND THE UPPER-40S...AND WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW SUCH CROSSOVER VALUES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCEEDING AM
EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO BECOME AN ISSUE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS OF S
NEW ENGLAND...IN ADDITION TO SE MA WHICH WAS THE LAST TO SEE RAIN
EARLIER TODAY AND HAD THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME TO DRY OUT AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CONDITIONS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND ANY CLEARING WILL EASILY RESULT
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR SE MA. FORECAST UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LOWS
DOWN AROUND THE MID- TO LOW-40S WITH COLDEST SPOTS ALONG THE
S-SHORE ADJACENT TO COLDER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

IFR-LIFR FOG REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR S/SE MA AND LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS OF S NEW ENGLAND. WITH
LIGHT WINDS FORECAST...THE PROBLEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS BY WHICH POINT WINDS INCREASE AND SCOUR OUT THE
LOW VSBYS.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
TERMINAL. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW
AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH FOG ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORECAST OVER THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SCOUR DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD AS WINDS INCREASE. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172319
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POP-UP ACROSS HARTFORD COUNTY AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI. APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AS WINDS AT IJD ARE OUT OF THE WNW
AND AT WST THEY ARE SW. OTHERWISE TEMPS DID A LATE SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 04-06Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172319
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POP-UP ACROSS HARTFORD COUNTY AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI. APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AS WINDS AT IJD ARE OUT OF THE WNW
AND AT WST THEY ARE SW. OTHERWISE TEMPS DID A LATE SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 04-06Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172319
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POP-UP ACROSS HARTFORD COUNTY AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI. APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AS WINDS AT IJD ARE OUT OF THE WNW
AND AT WST THEY ARE SW. OTHERWISE TEMPS DID A LATE SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 04-06Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172319
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POP-UP ACROSS HARTFORD COUNTY AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY RI. APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
SORT OF BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AS WINDS AT IJD ARE OUT OF THE WNW
AND AT WST THEY ARE SW. OTHERWISE TEMPS DID A LATE SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 04-06Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 02-03Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 02-03Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST.
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST. ALREADY SEEING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL CT. LOW PROB FOR AN ISOLD
SHOWER CT/RI THROUGH 00Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE TO THE S WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
RIDGING BUILDING IN. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE 40S...PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C WHICH IS FOCUSED TO
THE N. SFC INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CONFINED TO N NEW
ENG WHERE SBCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. TT SPIKE INTO THE MID 50S
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM BUT THIS ALSO
ACROSS N NEW ENG. THUS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE N. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS SNE. WE WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND E MA ASSOCD WITH MODEST QG FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT BEST CHANCE IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NE MA.

AFTER FROPA MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING ABOVE
850 MB WILL PROMOTE GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
COAST POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO 60 ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND PORTIONS OF NE MA.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW BECOMES CUT-OFF
BY MID-WEEK PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY
AND COOLER FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE CALM ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS ALONG THE COASTLINE TO BE IN THE LOW 50S.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-ATLANTIC TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POTENT WITH STRONG 60KT 925MB SOUTHEASTERLY JET
AND GOOD MOISTURE FLUX STREAMING INTO THE FLOW. PWAT VALUES REACH
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION`S AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COME IN AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
SUCH THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. ALSO ANTICIPATE A
FEW GUSTS FROM THE STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN SO WE COULD SEE 20-30 MPH
GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COOL...WINDY...WET DAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. EXPECT QPF VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0 AND TOTAL TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE
50. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

* WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WAVES DEVELOP BUT THE INCREASINGLY STACKED
UPPER LOW PRESSURES WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY.
HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD.  LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THANKS TO THE SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 02-03Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN DIURNAL CU/SHOWERS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES OVER THE WATERS. SEABREEZES LIKELY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING SAT AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SAT EVENING BIT SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/. SEAS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-11 FT
ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON
AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SCA TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRO CHOPPY SEAS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WIND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
SYSTEM...SEAS MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND FIRE WEATHER
OFFICIALS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR
MA...N CT AND NW RI. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS UNDER 0.25" AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 25 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BUT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT FOG
TO PERSIST UNTIL WIND SHIFT TO WEST THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE SHOWER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS LI WHERE AXIS OF HIGHER KI/TT
AND LOWER SWI LOCATED. HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 02-03Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BUT AREAS OF STRATUS
AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT FOG
TO PERSIST UNTIL WIND SHIFT TO WEST THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE SHOWER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS LI WHERE AXIS OF HIGHER KI/TT
AND LOWER SWI LOCATED. HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IMPROVES TO VFR AFT 02-03Z
FOLLOWING WIND SHIFT TO W. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NE
MA TO CAPE COD. INCREASING NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG E
COASTAL MA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING NW LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 15Z SAT THEN
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1029 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH...OTHERWISE MOCLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING S OF THE PIKE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CT AND RI WHERE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
MODELS SHOW HIGHER KI/TT AXIS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH SWI
DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO.

GUSTY SW WINDS 20-30 MPH ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE JETS MOVES TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS 60 TO 65...BUT 50S S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS EXIT COASTAL NEW ENG 16-18Z...OTHERWISE AREAS OF MVFR
WITH ISOLD IFR IN STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY N OF THE PIKE. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS CT/RI LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SAT...
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1029 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH...OTHERWISE MOCLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING S OF THE PIKE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CT AND RI WHERE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
MODELS SHOW HIGHER KI/TT AXIS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH SWI
DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO.

GUSTY SW WINDS 20-30 MPH ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE JETS MOVES TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS 60 TO 65...BUT 50S S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS EXIT COASTAL NEW ENG 16-18Z...OTHERWISE AREAS OF MVFR
WITH ISOLD IFR IN STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY N OF THE PIKE. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS CT/RI LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SAT...
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1029 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH...OTHERWISE MOCLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO SNE THIS AFTERNOON AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING S OF THE PIKE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CT AND RI WHERE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
MODELS SHOW HIGHER KI/TT AXIS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH SWI
DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO.

GUSTY SW WINDS 20-30 MPH ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE JETS MOVES TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS 60 TO 65...BUT 50S S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS EXIT COASTAL NEW ENG 16-18Z...OTHERWISE AREAS OF MVFR
WITH ISOLD IFR IN STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY N OF THE PIKE. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS CT/RI LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SAT...
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS VERIFYING NICELY.

BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
APPEARS A BIT MORE THREATENING THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC AND
DIFF REFLECTIVITY INDICATE SOME BRIGHT BANDING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 8 KFT AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT. PRECIP SHIELD BECOMES MORE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE SO STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING THRU THE 40S AND INTO THE L50S THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL FEEL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE LESS
SUNSHINE.

GUSTY SSW WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET PEELS OFFSHORE.

WILDCARD TO FORECAST IS IF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA. THIS COMBINED WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS ACROSS
CT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

645 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS VERIFYING NICELY.

BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
APPEARS A BIT MORE THREATENING THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC AND
DIFF REFLECTIVITY INDICATE SOME BRIGHT BANDING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 8 KFT AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT. PRECIP SHIELD BECOMES MORE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE SO STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING THRU THE 40S AND INTO THE L50S THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL FEEL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE LESS
SUNSHINE.

GUSTY SSW WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET PEELS OFFSHORE.

WILDCARD TO FORECAST IS IF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA. THIS COMBINED WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS ACROSS
CT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

645 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS VERIFYING NICELY.

BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
APPEARS A BIT MORE THREATENING THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC AND
DIFF REFLECTIVITY INDICATE SOME BRIGHT BANDING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 8 KFT AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT. PRECIP SHIELD BECOMES MORE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE SO STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING THRU THE 40S AND INTO THE L50S THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL FEEL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE LESS
SUNSHINE.

GUSTY SSW WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET PEELS OFFSHORE.

WILDCARD TO FORECAST IS IF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA. THIS COMBINED WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS ACROSS
CT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

645 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS VERIFYING NICELY.

BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR
APPEARS A BIT MORE THREATENING THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC AND
DIFF REFLECTIVITY INDICATE SOME BRIGHT BANDING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 8 KFT AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT. PRECIP SHIELD BECOMES MORE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE SO STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING THRU THE 40S AND INTO THE L50S THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL FEEL WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE LESS
SUNSHINE.

GUSTY SSW WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET PEELS OFFSHORE.

WILDCARD TO FORECAST IS IF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA. THIS COMBINED WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS ACROSS
CT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

645 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER
RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN A COASTAL LOW DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT
SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY
WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1-
INCH/ AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN ALOFT. PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SHOULD SEE ONLY A TENTH OR
TWO OF PRECIP. ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS BUT DO LITTLE ELSE OF HARM.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AIDS IN FORCING.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS TOWARDS THE S-COAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
DAY...PERSISTENT SW-FLOW COMBINED WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD SEE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY THINKING CT AND POINTS SW.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY BELOW THE FREEZING-LEVEL...MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS...BELIEVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD PREVAIL. THINKING RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER
EARLIER RAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-40S...COLD AIR DRAINAGE
INTO THE VALLEYS...PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOCUS
IS ACROSS N/W MA AND THE SANDIER SOILS OF SE MA OUT ONTO THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS NW CT...SO LONG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LOWS
AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-40S WITH THE WARM-SPOTS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...

CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS S NH
INTO NE MA WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMIZES BENEATH THE
LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET. SUBSEQUENT REFLECTION OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LENDS TO CONVERGENCE OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES
WHERE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BENEATH
AN UNSTABLE PROFILE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H6. LOOKING AT MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG COLLOCATED WITH SHOWALTERS < 0. CONSIDERING UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN A THIN MID-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE ENCOMPASSED
IN A SUB-FREEZING REGIME ABOVE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN
NOT RULE OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LIKELY POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAY BE GOING A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT IN LEFT FIELD WITH THE FORECAST...BUT FEEL THE SIGNALS
CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
FOCUS ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
APPARENT ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESSER DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE. ALSO
LESS FORCING PER PROXIMITY TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POPS AWAY FROM NE MA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND
FOCUS OF THERMAL- AND MOIST-AXES TO WHICH MODELS EXHIBIT DISCREPANCY
AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY SUCCINCT.

FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONSULT THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-60S
AS WINDS GUST OUT OF THE W AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. DRIEST CONDITIONS
SETTLE TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE CT-RIVER VALLEY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST AROUND 30-PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TURNING MUCH COOLER SAT NIGHT AND SUN
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND WHICH EVOLVES INTO A
TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE BLOCKY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER AIR CONFIGURATION FEATURES A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAITS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MODEL PREFERENCES...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TUE.
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH ONSET OF RAIN MON...WHICH IS
A FLIP-FLOP OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HOWEVER
THIS TIME THE GFS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NW ATLC SUN-MON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MON. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
ECMWF DIGS THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
THE ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL BLEND HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE

AS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EXITS OFFSHORE MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE N-NE WHICH WILL
USHER IN A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/THU. THIS WIND SHIFT OFF THE CHILLY EASTERN MA OCEAN
WATERS WILL RESULT IN RAPID TEMP DROP WITH READINGS AROUND 70 SAT
AFTN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S SAT EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MU30S
SAT NIGHT! MARITIME AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOL TEMPS /50S/ ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BUT WARMING
NOTICEABLY /L60S/ WESTWARD INTO THE CT RVR VLY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS MERGE FORMING A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
TRIPLE POINT/COASTAL LOW IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
MON THRU MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE MORNING. MODELS SIGNALING
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME GULF OF MEXICO
AND ATLC INFLOW YIELDS PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO. THIS IS COURTESY OF ANOMALOUS /+2 TO +3 SD DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO/ 925 MB /60 KT/ AND 850 MB JET CORES OFF THE OCEAN INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THESE MOISTURE AND WIND ANOMALOUS YIELDS THE RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE CHILLY/RAW WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECT
A WIND SWEPT RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE EASTERN
LAKES AND POSSIBLE NY STATE OR NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AS -SHRA SWEEP THE TERMINALS TOWARDS MIDDAY.
-SHRA CONCLUDE ACROSS S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SW-WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGEST OVER SE MA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED
OVER SELECT TERMINALS. FOG ERODES DURING THE MORNING AS W-WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FOR NE MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND GUSTY ALONG THE
EASTERN MA COASTLINE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS SHOWERS ENCOMPASS THE WATERS TOWARDS EVENING...SW-WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS GENERATING SWELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. DID NOT
UNDERCUT THE WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL WITH PRESENT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SEE A LULL IN WINDS OVERNIGHT DURING WHICH TIME FOG MAY DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY MORE SO ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONCLUDE INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS GUSTS OUT OF THE W UP TO 25 KTS. SMALL-CRAFT LIKELY NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE INNER- WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE E-WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND SPEEDS.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES ZIPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MAY YIELD A
PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT...STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN MA
WATERS. THUS LOW PROB SCA HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS DRY
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING HEIGHTS EXTEND UP TO 7 KFT.
SO IN ADDITION TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
THIS LATEST FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BEING LOWER DOWN TO 20
PERCENT...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT BAY...
BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LOTS OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE PER 0Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION.
PWATS AVERAGING 0.2-0.3 AS A DEEP-LAYER OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ALL
THE WAY UP TO H5. TO THE WEST...ISENTROPIC LIFT BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES REGION LENDING TO SOME DECENT RETURNS PER
WSR-88D LIKELY THE RESULT OF DEEP-LAYER LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
/PWATS OF 1.0 INCH/. SEEING ONE-HOUR PRECIP AMOUNT REPORTING UP
TO 0.1 INCHES. ITS GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WET WEATHER
TO ENTRAIN INTO S NEW ENGLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. LOOKING
AT SHOWERY WEATHER TO ENVELOPE THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SIMILAR
DYNAMICS AS THAT TO THE W SO CAN NOT RULE OUT TOTAL-PRECIP AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN THE MEANTIME...INCREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH ONSHORE S-WINDS
LENDING TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE HAS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE MID-40S. AM
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND...A LITTLE MORE CHILLY ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST WITH THE FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS. AGAIN PRECIP
CHANCES PICK UP TOWARDS LIKELY BY THE MORNING RUSH.

INTO FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD TO AN ATTENDANT
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE TO
MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1
INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE ONLY
0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED
BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

3Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LOTS OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE PER 0Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION.
PWATS AVERAGING 0.2-0.3 AS A DEEP-LAYER OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ALL
THE WAY UP TO H5. TO THE WEST...ISENTROPIC LIFT BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES REGION LENDING TO SOME DECENT RETURNS PER
WSR-88D LIKELY THE RESULT OF DEEP-LAYER LIFT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
/PWATS OF 1.0 INCH/. SEEING ONE-HOUR PRECIP AMOUNT REPORTING UP
TO 0.1 INCHES. ITS GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WET WEATHER
TO ENTRAIN INTO S NEW ENGLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. LOOKING
AT SHOWERY WEATHER TO ENVELOPE THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SIMILAR
DYNAMICS AS THAT TO THE W SO CAN NOT RULE OUT TOTAL-PRECIP AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN THE MEANTIME...INCREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH ONSHORE S-WINDS
LENDING TO INCREASING DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND KEEPING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MILD AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE HAS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE MID-40S. AM
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND...A LITTLE MORE CHILLY ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST WITH THE FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS. AGAIN PRECIP
CHANCES PICK UP TOWARDS LIKELY BY THE MORNING RUSH.

INTO FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD TO AN ATTENDANT
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE TO
MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1
INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE ONLY
0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED
BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

3Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 162258
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY ENTERING
NEW ENGLAND...SO SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ERODE. FORECAST LOWS IN 40S ARE ON TRACK.

FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 162258
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY ENTERING
NEW ENGLAND...SO SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ERODE. FORECAST LOWS IN 40S ARE ON TRACK.

FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 162258
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY ENTERING
NEW ENGLAND...SO SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ERODE. FORECAST LOWS IN 40S ARE ON TRACK.

FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 162258
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY ENTERING
NEW ENGLAND...SO SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DURING FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR TO ERODE. FORECAST LOWS IN 40S ARE ON TRACK.

FRIDAY...

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING AS SHOWERS ARRIVE. S FLOW PREVAILS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT FRI AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON
AND FRI EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RH/S TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 162008
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS
REBOUNDING NICELY INTO THE MID 60S. A FEW GUSTS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY ARE ANTICIPATED...OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS WAA MOVES
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPS FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...VFR TO START. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN -SHRA. EXPECT BREEZY S-WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE
WEST...REMAINING GUSTY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 20-21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RHS TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 162008
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM WEATHER RETURNS SAT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY...BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DELIVERS A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS
REBOUNDING NICELY INTO THE MID 60S. A FEW GUSTS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY ARE ANTICIPATED...OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM THROUGH THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS WAA MOVES
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPS FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE STABLE...AS WELL AS THE TIMING IS
NOT FAVORABLE TO MENTION THUNDER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1 INCH AND WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX BEING 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY...COULD SEE VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
ONLY 0.1- 0.2 OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL. AS PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED BEST LOCATION FOR HEAVIER RAIN IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

APPEARS THAT THE FRONT BECOME WEAK OR STALLS SOUTH OF THE PIKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

BECAUSE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE SO HIT OR MISS...APPEARS WE
MAY REBOUND NICELY FOR TEMPS...REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT EXPECT A VARIETY OF LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIONS AND LOW 50S FOR THE URBAN CITIES OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM/BREEZY SAT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN NE MA?
* WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE
* COOLER/FEW SHOWERS MID WEEK

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIALLY WE
HAVE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
DIVING OUT OF SE CANADA...BEFORE CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SW EJECTS
INTO PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT PHASES
WITH NORTHERN STREAM. AFTER WARM AND DRY START TO WEEKEND...
TRANSITION MON-TUE FAVORS SOAKING RAIN AS COASTAL LOW TAPS INTO
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. FROM THERE PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID APRIL ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. DETAILS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN EXTENDED FORECAST
FOLLOW BELOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS IS ON RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
HIGHS REACH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM S COAST BASED UPON
MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NE WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE. AIRMASS IS
FAIRLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO AT MOST AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA SAT AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
PROBABLY STARTING IN CT VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND IN E MA TOWARD
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S MON...AS E/SE WINDS GUST TO 25-
30 MPH DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM OH VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH TRACKS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES POINT TO ANOMALOUS SYSTEM FOR
MID APRIL WITH DEPARTURES FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...MOISTURE
FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

THIS ALL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. 24HR MODEL QPF RANGES
FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH
WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. THOSE HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH GEFS PROBS OF 1 AND 2 INCHES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FAVORS CLOUDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME /MAINLY DIURNAL/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
50S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...VFR TO START. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN -SHRA. EXPECT BREEZY S-WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE
WEST...REMAINING GUSTY.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 20-21Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS
GUST TO 25KT IN AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON...MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN/FOG BY AFTERNOON. E/SE
WIND GUSTING TO 25-30KT NEAR COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD LOWER VSBYS. UNDERCUT WAVES ON
FRIDAY AS WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH TOO MUCH MIXING AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE OCEAN SURFACE. HOWEVER DID HOIST NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR 25 KT GUSTS COMING OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NOT ANTICIPATING NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER WEEKEND. DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW SCA AND REMAIN SO INTO SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING E/SE WINDS EXPECTED MON WITH BUILDING SEAS...PROBABLY
REQUIRING SCA WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
REACHING MARGINAL GALES /35KT/ ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT ON OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT. RAIN AND
FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY MON AFTERNOON AND AND MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH ON OPEN WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF DAY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SCA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP AROUND A
TENTH OR TWO WHICH MAY NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. ANTICIPATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH. THIS
COULD BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH PRECIP FALLS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY KEEPING THE WINDS GUSTS AT
BAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR RHS TO DROP NEAR 30 PERCENT AGAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE WET BY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ230>236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN





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