Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBOX 182034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO
A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRY...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...
MARINE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AS EAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ASHORE FROM MASS BAY AND THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BROKEN UP FARTHER WEST WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE OR
SOUTH...CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FOR THE CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
09Z-11Z. JET DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSED TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER/NRN
VT/NRN NH. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW MOST OF
THE FAVORABLE RH AT OR ABOVE 500 MB...BEST RH VALUES OF 60-70 PCT
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-09Z. IF THERE ARE ANY SHOWERS IN OUR
AREA...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE IN SRN NH OR IN EXTREME NRN MASS.
WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN NH AND EXTREME NORTHERN
ESSEX CO BUT VALUES ARE LOW...ROUGHLY 15-18 PCT. TEMPS WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT FROM A STARTING POINT IN THE 40S...BUT CLOUDS
WILL SLOW ANY COOLING TREND. WE STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH HAS MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN
FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES COULD REACH THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO MOST OF THE
  DAY WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER HIGH BRINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
  WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL CHANGING
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...FROM A RATHER FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN EARLY TO A DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS SLOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...
CAUSING APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING TUE INTO WED TO SLOW AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO SHIFT
E OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH...OF ALL MODELS...THE 12Z EC TRYING
TO KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FASTER WHILE THE GFS SLOWS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...GIVING GOOD CONSISTENCY. THIS WAS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE OVERALL MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC DURING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AS EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM ONLY AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RANGING TO
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

OCEAN CLOUDS MAY MOVE INLAND DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO E OF NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SE
TO S OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAY HOLD NEAR 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TEMP REGIME...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS WORKS INLAND.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL E OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE RIDGE
TENDS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH THE LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO +6C TO +9C DURING THE DAY AS THE S
WINDS TAKE HOLD...WILL SEE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WELL INLAND. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST...WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS BACK IN THE 50S. IF THEY
DO DEVELOP...MAY BE RATHER SHALLOW AND REMAIN WITHIN A FEW MILES
OF THE SHORELINE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WORKING E
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING SOME SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THIS ASPECT...THOUGH DOES
LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH RIDGE WILL LOOKS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY BUT COOLER AIR. SOME
MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME SPOTTY PRECIP ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THU.

LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OR FRI NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START ON TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NE WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS THEY SHIFT TO E AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATE SUN AFTERNOON/SUN NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIGHT SE WINDS ON MONDAY TO BECOME S MON NIGHT AND TUE.
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO W AS LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP DURING
WED...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. COULD SEE LOW END SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS LATE WED OR WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...WTB
HYDROLOGY...WTB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...
MARINE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AS EAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ASHORE FROM MASS BAY AND THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BROKEN UP FARTHER WEST WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE OR
SOUTH...CUTING OFF THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FOR THE CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
09Z-11Z. JET DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSSED TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER/NRN VT/NRN NH. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW
MOST OF THE FAVORABLE RH AT OR ABOVE 500 MB...BEST RH VALUES OF
60-70 PCT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-09Z. IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE IN SRN NH OR IN
EXTREME NRN MASS. WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SRN NH AND
EXTREME NORTHERN ESSEX CO BUT VALUES ARE LOW...ROUGHLY 15-18 PCT.
TEMPS WILL COOL SOMEWHAT TONIGHT FROM A STARTING POINT IN THE
40S...BUT CLOUDS WILL SLOW ANY COOLING TREND. WE STAYED CLOSE TO
A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. A FEW OF THE
COLDER SPOTS IN FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES COULD REACH THE
UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS POPPING AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD. BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS
DIMINISHES...SO WE WILL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND GO WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEP MIXING OF THE AIRMASS WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING TO AT
LEAST 900 MB AND PROBABLY TO 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER TOMORROW
WILL REACH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL
INDICATIONS OF 30 KNOTS. THIS WOULD MEAN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH MIXING
TO THE SURFACE TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 0C TO -2C...THE NAM SUGGESTS -4C. WITH
FULL MIXING THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60. THE BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANOTHER 1-2F TO THESE EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL FORECAST MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A MILD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY THAT GUSTS CLOSE TO SHORE MAY BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY/IPSWICH BAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES REACHING 28-35 PERCENT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...BUT REPORTS RECEIVED SO
FAR INDICATE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL TOO MOIST. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN AREAS HAVE MIX OF CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON SUN.  A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MARINE CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE MORNING. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST...BUT
WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 925 MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MASS...BUT
ALSO SOME THINNING OF THIS MOIST LAYER IN THE CT VALLEY. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WORCESTER AND EAST
WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE 39-40F WATER IN MASSACHUSETTS BAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE EAST WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S /NORMAL 56-61/
WHILE WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
LIMITED AFTERNOON SUN AND REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. BUT BY AFTERNOON IT HAD
BROKEN INTO TWO SMALLER AREAS...ONE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS /CENTRAL MASS AND S CENTRAL NH/.
LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THESE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
COASTAL PLAIN LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...FED BY
MOIST AIR OFF MASS BAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TREND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES. THIS WILL START MOVING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN. MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IT THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND VFR. DAYTIME HEATING
BY THE SUN WILL DRAW STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CONTINUED VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WIND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT THEN
W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW RECEDING...MIDDLE HADDAM WILL
CREST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181443
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1043 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN AREAS HAVE MIX OF CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON SUN.  A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MARINE CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE MORNING. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST...BUT
WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE BELOW 925 MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MASS...BUT
ALSO SOME THINNING OF THIS MOIST LAYER IN THE CT VALLEY. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE CLOUDS THIN OUT AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WORCESTER AND EAST
WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE 39-40F WATER IN MASSACHUSETTS BAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE EAST WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S /NORMAL 56-61/
WHILE WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FROM THE
LIMITED AFTERNOON SUN AND REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

BROAD AREA OF 2500 FOOT CIGS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND CENTRAL HILLS HAVING CIGS AT
1500-2000 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE EAST AND THE CENTRAL HILLS. THE CT VALLEY MAY SEE THE
CLOUDS THIN TO ABOUT 50 PCT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO
CONDITIONS MAY GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SCT AND BKN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST ACROSS MUCH OF MASS/RI/NE CT/SRN NH. WINDS
IN THE CT VALLEY MAY SHIFT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT THEN
W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

705 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY TODAY WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND HOW FAR WEST THEY PROGRESS.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.  WE DO THINK
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDS CAN OFTEN BE A
CHALLENGE FOR THE MODELS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND HOW FAR WEST THEY WILL VENTURE.  FOR NOW WE MAY SEE THEM
ADVANCE WEST OF A WORCESTER TO PROVIDENCE LINE FOR A TIME...BUT
PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW NORMAL AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

BY EARLY EVENING...WINDS W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND
WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR
CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...DOODY
HYDROLOGY...DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO
THE REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S.

REGARDING MARINE SC AND DRIZZLE CHANCES...MODELS STRUGGLING TO
INITIALIZE CURRENT BAND OF SC S OF LI AND INTO NJ AND CONTINUES TO
TRY AND DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND E OF MASS BAY. HOWEVER...AM NOTING
THAT DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOW LVLS ARE A BIT WIDER THAN
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE N OF E. CMC
REGIONAL BL SETUP DOES STILL SUGGEST SC FORMS E OF MASS BAY AROUND
12Z...SLIDING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT IS THE
ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT BAND S OF LONG ISLAND. GIVEN ALL OF
THESE PROS/CONS REGARDING THE SC DEVELOPMENT...DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE BUT CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENED
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT OCCURS AT ALL...OR ITS EXACT TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHILLY NIGHTS/MILD DAYS
* WET WEATHER LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A COOL
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING REPLACED BY A MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 30S ELSEWHERE.  ON
SUNDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
PROBABLY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S.

MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH A MIXTURE
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM SUNDAY/S
VALUES REACHING BETWEEN +6C TO +8C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...TO PERHAPS EVEN
NEAR 70 IN A FEW LOCALES.  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON...ITS UNCERTAIN IF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THIS TIME
RANGE.  IF SEA BREEZES ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S...BUT THEY MAY END UP VERY LOCALIZED JUST
AFFECTING AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA.  THIS WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND TRACK/INTENSITY
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT
LEAST PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT MAY BE WINDY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS LATE TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  WE
MAY SEE MARGINAL SCA SEAS DEVELOP LATE TUE/NIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY IS THE THREE DAY MARK SINCE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS FACT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW 60S AND LOW DWPTS IN THE 20S...MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH W WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...DOODY
HYDROLOGY...DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INVERTED RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES CENTER IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
CONTINUES TO YIELD A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE
FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS COMBINING WITH E TO NE
FLOW...DRAWING AIR ACROSS THE WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE ONLY IN THE
LOW 40S. WITH THIS FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE
SHIFTS E LATE TODAY...THE TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS
WITHIN BOTH THE I-495 AND I-95 CORRIDORS MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS
FURTHER W. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S MAINLY
E OF THESE HIGHWAYS WHILE HIGHS FURTHER W WILL BREAK INTO THE LOW-
MID 50S.

REGARDING MARINE SC AND DRIZZLE CHANCES...MODELS STRUGGLING TO
INITIALIZE CURRENT BAND OF SC S OF LI AND INTO NJ AND CONTINUES TO
TRY AND DEVELOP ANOTHER BAND E OF MASS BAY. HOWEVER...AM NOTING
THAT DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOW LVLS ARE A BIT WIDER THAN
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE N OF E. CMC
REGIONAL BL SETUP DOES STILL SUGGEST SC FORMS E OF MASS BAY AROUND
12Z...SLIDING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT IS THE
ONLY MODEL HANDLING CURRENT BAND S OF LONG ISLAND. GIVEN ALL OF
THESE PROS/CONS REGARDING THE SC DEVELOPMENT...DIMINISHED THE
COVERAGE BUT CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE W BY LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENED
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH ON WHETHER IT OCCURS AT ALL...OR ITS EXACT TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS
MAINLY ABOVE H6...WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C FROM THE SFC
TO H6. LOW-MID LVL F-GEN IS ALSO VERY WEAK AS IT ARRIVES GIVEN IT
IS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH RIDGING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE
FANFARE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EXCEPT MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND W
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH SUNRISE. CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NIL POPS.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS STILL DROP TO THE LOW-MID
30S.

SAT...
HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH COLD ADVECTION TO START THE DAY.
THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIXING UNDER ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO REACH HIGHER THAN H8...WHERE TEMPS ONLY DIP TO AROUND
-1C. COMBINE THIS WITH W DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S. LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE GIVEN H92
WINDS REACH AROUND 20-25 KT. THEREFORE...ALSO EXPECT WINDS AROUND
20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ESPECIALLY. THEREFORE WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZ SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO 12Z SAT AT LEAST...WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS
DROPPING EARLIER.

WINDS TODAY BEING OUT OF THE N-NE...SHIFTING TO THE SW TONIGHT
THEN W DURING THE DAY ON SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
MOST POINTS HAVE REACHED CREST...BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
MONTAGUE...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD ANY LONGER
AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180542
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
MARINE STRATO-CU LAYER HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY S OF LONG ISLAND AND
INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING BUT WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY JUST
EXITING TO THE E IT HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE HEADWAY EXCEPT ACK AND
CAPE COD...AND EVEN THERE IT HAS BEEN SCT AT BEST. STILL WITH
PREDOMINANT E-NE FLOW MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE BOARD STILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN SC DEVELOPING ALONG THE E AND SE
COASTS AND SHIFTING INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND...BUT LOWER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO
RECENT UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY GUIDANCE HAS HAD WITH
INITIALIZING THESE MARINE LAYERS. MAY MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WITH LATER UPDATES AS MORE REFINED MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CATCHES UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHER CONFIDENCE INTO
SAT...

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS WRAPPING INTO
AREAS S AND E OF A WST-PVD-BOS LINE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY
HOW DEEP IT GETS...BUT ONCE IT OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NE WINDS VEER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LINE...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
W OF THE LINE SHIFT FROM THE S TO W AND WINDS E OF THE LINE BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE S...SO ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCT
OUT.

AFTER THAT MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AT COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W SAT MORNING WITH WNW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MID DAY SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER AND
FOR HOW LONG MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLAY LATER THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO DELAY THE TIMING OF ANY MARINE STRATO-CU AND
DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DO STILL LOOK RIPE FOR IT MAINLY FOR
SE MA AND SRN RI. UNFORTUNATELY IR SATELLITE NOT MUCH HELP TONIGHT
AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING THE 11-3.9 MICRO CHANNEL. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OBS CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY IF
NE FLOW ONCE AGAIN VEERS MORE ELY. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER
PARAMETERS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLD MVFR CIGS /AROUND 3KFT/ ACROSS E AND SE MA AT 23Z. THESE
WILL BREAK UP BRIEFLY BY 02Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND
OR AFTER 04Z.

OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED NE FLOW SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO
MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW
FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE
AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172338
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
738 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
725 PM UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...THOUGH SOME
STILL LINGER FROM S OF BOSTON DOWN TO SE MA AT 23Z.
OTHERWISE...NOTING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SW AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP.

CAN SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE THIN CIRRUS E OF THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET HEADING BACK TO THE W...SO FEEL THAT
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK TO BRING BACK LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME POCKET OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS E
COASTAL AREAS INTO RI/N CT.

UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND
INCORPORATED INTO OVERNIGHT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE
CONTINUED THEME OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT... BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLD MVFR CIGS /AROUND 3KFT/ ACROSS E AND SE MA AT 23Z. THESE
WILL BREAK UP BRIEFLY BY 02Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND
OR AFTER 04Z.

OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED NE FLOW SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO
MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW
FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE
AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
220 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE TO LOWER CLOUD DECK AFFECTING SE MA IS MAKING WESTWARD
PROGRESS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE AREAS
WILL SEE CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE CONTINUED THEME OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK SAT...
BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

NOTING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A FLAT...SPLIT FLOW
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES. BY AROUND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIGNALING AN H5 CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHEN IT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS AN H5 SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE TUE-
WED TIMEFRAME...WHICH SIGNALS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS.

USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
EXPECT A DRY...WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST...AS THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT...WITH A
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME TOO GUSTY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SW NH INTO N CENTRAL AND W MA...
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...RANGING TO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. THESE COLDER INTERIOR
READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP AN E-NE WIND FLOW IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER- MID 50S...EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ON THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE NARROWS AS IT SETTLES S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET TO THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT RANGING TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS BROAD
LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORK OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...LOOKS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO
S NH/NW MA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT.

BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOW PRES TRYING TO EXIT OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST. MIGHT SEE BEST QPF VALUES INTO THE TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAME
AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT... POSSIBLY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME DISPARITY AS TO WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
KEPT POPS ON HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FEEL HIGHEST WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA INTO RI FOR NOW.

EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S
ALONG IMMEDIATE S COAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING
WED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHOULD START TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING WED
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...BUT LOOKS TO
BE DRYING OUT FROM W-E EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START. MAY
SEE LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS MOVING INTO S NH AND CENTRAL-W MA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...EXPECT W-NW WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY...NE WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH MAY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SE TO S-SW BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TUESDAY. SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

THE STAGES ON THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WERE NEARING CREST. THE STAGE
AT WESTERLY APPEARS TO BE CRESTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CLOSE TO CRESTING AT WOOD RIVER JUNCTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
222 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE TO LOWER CLOUD DECK AFFECTING SE MA IS MAKING WESTWARD
PROGRESS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE...SO IT DOES LOOK LIKE THESE AREAS
WILL SEE CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
TO COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT...SO WE CONTINUED THEME OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND...SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND DAYBREAK SAT...
BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. LOWS ARE A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM MOS WHICH YIELDS 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EASILY TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. EXPECT EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT HOLD FIRM CLOSER
TO COASTLINE WHERE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

CONTINUED E/NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE BUT A
LITTLE MILDER THAN TODAY. USED BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS
SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN 40S COAST TO 50S INTERIOR. COULD COME CLOSE TO 60 ACROSS CT
VALLEY.

FLOW TURNS MORE W/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY ON NEAR COAST BUT ERODE IT
OVERNIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO REGION AHEAD OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG EARLY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY THIN OUT AS
THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD BE A
BIT MILDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER GIVEN PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.
EXTENDED SCA PRIMARILY FOR SEAS MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY DRIZZLE ON WATERS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

SHOULD SEE MORE IN WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ON S COASTAL WATERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE W/SW BUT IS LIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRES
TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
129 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUD DECK MAINLY AFFECTING SE MA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
PUSH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN RI BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ACROSS INTERIOR. NE WINDS STILL GUSTY ALONG COAST BUT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

FORECAST HIGHS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO FRI...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE BEING
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE A COLD
AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE CAPE...INCLUDING
BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1730Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CIGS /035/ POSSIBLE INTO PVD/BOS FOR A TIME. CONTINUED NE FLOW
SHOULD BRING LOWER MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY NEAR COAST.

CIGS SLOWLY LIFT FRI BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH
OF DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE FRI NIGHT AS W/SW FLOW SHOULD ERODE LOWER
CLOUD COVER...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT COASTAL
SITES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS /035/ SOUTH
OF AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171543
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1143 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

NE FLOW PRODUCING LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. MODE
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY INTO PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON
CORRIDOR BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
40S TO AROUND 50 AND GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...PROBABLY INTO BOS/PVD FOR A TIME
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO S COAST LATER IN DAY. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...CIGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE EAST
COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH
COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS
FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM CT RIVER.
CREST HAS REACHED NORTHAMPTON AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
THOMPSONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARTFORD TONIGHT. MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON LOWER REACHES NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM

IN ADDITION...PAWCATUCK RIVER IN RI WAS NEARING CREST AT WESTERLY
AND WOOD RIVER JUNCTION. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

NE FLOW PRODUCING LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. MODE
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY INTO PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON
CORRIDOR BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.

OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
40S TO AROUND 50 AND GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...PROBABLY INTO BOS/PVD FOR A TIME
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO S COAST LATER IN DAY. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...CIGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE EAST
COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH
COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS
FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE....
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
PARTS OF EAST COASTAL MA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE
WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING. WE WERE OFF TO A VERY CHILLY START
WITH 7 AM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 30S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS WERE ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON
NANTUCKET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE
AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS...STRONGEST ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS A RISK OF
CIGS IN THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WATERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400 AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WAVERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TODAY RESULTING IN
A MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MASS COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE
COLUMN. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEAS
WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCA
ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO
OFFSHORE LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR....YIELDING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. CLOSER
TO THE COASTLINE...COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
STAY ABOVE 32F. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE CAPE. HAVE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 170157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED AT 1000 PM...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE DROPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE REMAIN UP KEEPING THE
USUAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES FROM DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
THOUGHT. REGARDLESS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM N AND THEN NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL SEE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 162340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED AT 715 PM...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST. WINDS DIMINISHING BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT SO THAT ONLY IN MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL THE WIND TOTALLY DECOUPLE FROM TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS IN A FEW LOCATIONS GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM N AND THEN NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL SEE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS DIMINISHING SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL TAKE
LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 161957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...DELLICARPINI/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 161753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND THE LOW-40S WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER-CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
SHORELINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS...WHEREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER CLEAR SKIES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. COULD PLAUSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS
/MAINLY FOR WORCESTER AND HARTFORD/. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-20S
FOR THE INTERIOR...WARMER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE SHORES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO
LOW-50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH BACKING OUT OF THE N AND GRADUALLY TO THE
NE. WILL SEE WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE E THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS. OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BKN-OVC LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALES HAVE CEASED RESULTING IN ALL WATERS BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND BOSTON HARBOR IN A SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS. WILL SEE NW WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE N. WHILE INNER-WATER SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONCLUDE...OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS AS EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 161459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE-
FORCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ON THE OUTER WATERS.

GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACCORDINGLY. SMALL-CRAFTS WILL DROP OFF DURING MIDDAY HOURS FOR
THE INNER WATERS...BUT AS TO THE OUTER WATERS PRESENT 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS AN AVERAGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 161353
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND
-1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT
OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

14Z UPDATE...

VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 161150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WAS
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT SHOULD BREAK OUT THERE BY MID MORNING. THERE WERE
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MIX
DOWN...WITH 40 MPH AT MANCHESTER NH. WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT THAT 40 MPH IS THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE AT THE
SURFACE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY ROADS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SPINOUTS...PLEASE DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AS THE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET FROM LAST NIGHT HAS FROZEN
OVER IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HIT 32 OR COLDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C. THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL
SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST
LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE.
NW WINDS GUST 25-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 160853
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
453 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 160804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY...BUT
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 160539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
DUAL POL RADAR ZDR/CC SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CT
TO ABOUT MHT. SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AT THIS
TIME AS WELL...SO EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF BOTH
SNOW AND SLEET EVERYWHERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ALREADY SEE DRY AIR MOVING IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE W CUTTING OFF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE NOTICED
CIGS RISING AS THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY ENDING
FROM W TO E.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THETAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 160206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOCAL OBS AND WSR-88D VELOCITY PRODUCTS
SUGGEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR WESTERLY RI TO
NEWBURYPORT MA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS SECONDARY MID LVL WAVE MOVES NE FROM ARUO0ND THE
DELMARVA...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOD RAIN. THIS
BAND OF RAIN IS MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE BROAD AREA OF
QG FORCING WITH MID LVL WAVE...AND IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOSE A
BIT OF ITS OVERALL PRECIP-PRODUCING ABILITY AS THE THE COLD FRONT
OUTPACES IT...DRAWING IN DRIER/COLDER AIR. SO...IN ESSENCE...WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE BOTH
IN INTENSITY AND SPATIALLY.

IN REGARD TO P-TYPE...COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE APPARENT ACROSS
WRN MA/CT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MUCH COLDER AIR IS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY AND SEVERAL AREAS ARE REPORTING SNOW/SLEET IN
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...IT HAS TAKEN MUCH MORE TIME
DRAINING INTO THE CT VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO TAKE A BIT
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ACTUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE REST OF
CT/MA/NH...UNTIL THE COLD LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH. SO...STILL
EXPECT A CHANGE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END...BUT
THIS MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY ACCUM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
A WHILE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AN SPS DUE TO FLASH FREEZING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IF SOME SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities