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000
FXUS61 KBOX 051144
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
744 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
743 AM UPDATE...

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...JUST TWEAKS TO BRING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TREND OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE IS TO TAKE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER...AND ALSO TRACKS CURVES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO SHORE
LATER THIS WEEKEND THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A DRIER
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY...OWING TO THE CONSENSUS TREND
OFFSHORE. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE DETAILS FOR SATURDAY. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.

PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...
TO A FLATTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES TOWARD MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLIGHT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP MOS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST...AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS TO GO AS DRY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WILL
SIMPLY TREND THE FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING
ANOTHER SERIES OF COLD FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER
PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051144
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
744 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
743 AM UPDATE...

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...JUST TWEAKS TO BRING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TREND OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE IS TO TAKE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER...AND ALSO TRACKS CURVES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO SHORE
LATER THIS WEEKEND THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A DRIER
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY...OWING TO THE CONSENSUS TREND
OFFSHORE. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE DETAILS FOR SATURDAY. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.

PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...
TO A FLATTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES TOWARD MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLIGHT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP MOS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST...AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS TO GO AS DRY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WILL
SIMPLY TREND THE FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING
ANOTHER SERIES OF COLD FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER
PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051144
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
744 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
743 AM UPDATE...

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...JUST TWEAKS TO BRING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TREND OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE IS TO TAKE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER...AND ALSO TRACKS CURVES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO SHORE
LATER THIS WEEKEND THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A DRIER
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY...OWING TO THE CONSENSUS TREND
OFFSHORE. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE DETAILS FOR SATURDAY. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.

PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...
TO A FLATTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES TOWARD MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLIGHT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP MOS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST...AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS TO GO AS DRY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WILL
SIMPLY TREND THE FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING
ANOTHER SERIES OF COLD FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER
PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TREND OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE IS TO TAKE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER...AND ALSO TRACKS CURVES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO SHORE
LATER THIS WEEKEND THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A DRIER
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY...OWING TO THE CONSENSUS TREND
OFFSHORE. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE DETAILS FOR SATURDAY. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.

PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...
TO A FLATTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES TOWARD MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLIGHT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP MOS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST...AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS TO GO AS DRY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WILL
SIMPLY TREND THE FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING
ANOTHER SERIES OF COLD FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER
PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TREND OF THE 05/00Z GUIDANCE IS TO TAKE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF REMAINS A LITTLE
FASTER...AND ALSO TRACKS CURVES THIS LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO SHORE
LATER THIS WEEKEND THAN THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A DRIER
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR FRIDAY...OWING TO THE CONSENSUS TREND
OFFSHORE. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE DETAILS FOR SATURDAY. SINCE THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.

PATTERN SHIFTS FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...
TO A FLATTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES TOWARD MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLIGHT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP MOS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. GREATEST
RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST...AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS TO GO AS DRY AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. WILL
SIMPLY TREND THE FORECAST RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING
ANOTHER SERIES OF COLD FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER
PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042248
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.

THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 042248
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.

THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN AN AREA OF BETTER
MOISTURE / HIGHER THETA-E FORCED AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WITH SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KTS...WITH SOME TURNING EVIDENT WITHIN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. CHECK OUT THE 18Z ALBANY SOUNDINGS WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEARLY 3K J/KG AND HIGHLIGHT EXACTLY THE ABOVE
POINTS.

FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE N/W REGIONS AWAY FROM WHERE THE DRY-SLOT
IS APPARENT WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/E INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE.

LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN /
FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES /
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO AS WELL AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW DOPPLER-RADAR
INDICATED.

WATCH NUMBER 469 CONTINUES TILL 8 PM. MAY NEED TO EXPAND INTO N CT
AND RI. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME DOWN-
STREAM TRENDS DO NOT FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY IS LOCKED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE / PVA OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX DISCERNED FROM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ENOUGH FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE TO INVOKE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER...YET
TWO THINGS: ONE IS THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DRIER AIR AS THE
SURFACE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...AND TWO IS THAT A DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA PUTTING A SQUASH ON ACTIVITY. WHILE CAN
NOT DISAGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT YIELDING SMALL HAIL...FEEL THAT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION MAY LIMIT THE LIFT. REMOVED FROM PREVAILING IN
THE FORECAST.

SO WITH THE FORCING APPARENT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM FOCUSING ON THE EARLY-HALF OF
THE DAY. FROM THEN ON DRIER WEATHER WITH BREEZY W-WINDS. A TAD
COOLER AS THE AIR-MASS ALOFT COOLS. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 80S.
SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH POTENTIAL THREATS: LARGE HAIL / STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W / HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. LOW RISK TORNADO. ACTIVITY
SWEEPING ENE AT 25-30 KTS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z. TEMPO
MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT W-WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH
TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED RAIN DURING THE DAY LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN AN AREA OF BETTER
MOISTURE / HIGHER THETA-E FORCED AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WITH SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KTS...WITH SOME TURNING EVIDENT WITHIN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. CHECK OUT THE 18Z ALBANY SOUNDINGS WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEARLY 3K J/KG AND HIGHLIGHT EXACTLY THE ABOVE
POINTS.

FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE N/W REGIONS AWAY FROM WHERE THE DRY-SLOT
IS APPARENT WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/E INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE.

LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN /
FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES /
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO AS WELL AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW DOPPLER-RADAR
INDICATED.

WATCH NUMBER 469 CONTINUES TILL 8 PM. MAY NEED TO EXPAND INTO N CT
AND RI. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME DOWN-
STREAM TRENDS DO NOT FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY IS LOCKED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE / PVA OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX DISCERNED FROM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ENOUGH FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE TO INVOKE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER...YET
TWO THINGS: ONE IS THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DRIER AIR AS THE
SURFACE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...AND TWO IS THAT A DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA PUTTING A SQUASH ON ACTIVITY. WHILE CAN
NOT DISAGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT YIELDING SMALL HAIL...FEEL THAT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION MAY LIMIT THE LIFT. REMOVED FROM PREVAILING IN
THE FORECAST.

SO WITH THE FORCING APPARENT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM FOCUSING ON THE EARLY-HALF OF
THE DAY. FROM THEN ON DRIER WEATHER WITH BREEZY W-WINDS. A TAD
COOLER AS THE AIR-MASS ALOFT COOLS. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 80S.
SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH POTENTIAL THREATS: LARGE HAIL / STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W / HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. LOW RISK TORNADO. ACTIVITY
SWEEPING ENE AT 25-30 KTS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z. TEMPO
MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT W-WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH
TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED RAIN DURING THE DAY LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041434
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1034 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY SOME OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

GOING INTO THE ENVIRONMENT: HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES OFFSHORE
PUSHED OUT TO SEA BY THIS MORNINGS WEATHER. BUT EXPECTING A
REBOUND INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SE.
HEIGHTS DO STILL RISE WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE COULD SQUASH ACTIVITY
AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A DRY-SLOT SWEEPING IN...BUT DESPITE
THIS THERE IS A STRONG PUSH OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY PER THE LATEST
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK THAT
YIELDS A DECENT SW LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING HIGHER THETA-E AND
INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND NEIGHBORING CENTRAL-
INTERIOR LOCALES. PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES NW TO SE TOWARDS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER THETA-E.

FOCUS ON AREAS WHEREVER THERE IS A NOSE OF CONVERGENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW / WHEREVER THE ENVIRONMENT CAN DESTABILIZE / AWAY
FROM THE DRY PUNCH PER WATER VAPOR TO THE W. SO ROUGHLY PUT THERE
IS FOCUS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE SE TOWARDS THE
MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.

DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITHIN WHICH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR EXCEEDS 50 KTS. SOME TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL 0-1/0-3 KM
PROFILE PER LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SW TO NE SHEAR.

A FINAL WORD...NOTE THE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING
AND THAT OF CHATHAM! MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG SO LONG AS WE
CAN MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS EXPECTED. NOTE ALSO THE
SHEAR PROFILE THAT WAS OBSERVED AS ROUGHLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE.
ALREADY SEEING SPC MESOANALYSIS BECOMING ROBUST WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF 2K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 KTS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5C/KM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO WARM US UP INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCALES NEAR 90.

SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE
FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN / FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES / STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / SMALL HAIL.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 KT
AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS
TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS/SHOWERS...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO EXPECT THESE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...AS STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE OR
LIFT INTO A STRATOCU DECK BY AFTERNOON...YIELDING PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS
MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030600
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW IS
RESULTING IN A MILDER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE PATCHY IFR IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF BY MIDDAY.
ALSO T-STORMS IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE
IN THE DAY. SSW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030156
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF MONDAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RETURN SSW FLOW BEGINNING
TO ADVECT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND NOW UP TO 72 AT BLOCK ISLAND! THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING
THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN
FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE
WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
MAINLY CLEAR EVENING. A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE
WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON
THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS.

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO
TUE. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS.

A WARMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FLOW OFF THE WATER RESULTING IN FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS...AND DRIZZLE ON THE SOUTH COAST WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

THEN...AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.  IF
ANYTHING...A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

LIKELY A HOT...HUMID SUMMERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT OF A PUZZLE.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  ORDINARILY THIS WOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY GOOD TIME FOR
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MODELS TEND TO INDICATE
AS MUCH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXHIBITED IN QUITE A FEW
OF THE MODELS.  THIS IS A BIT OF A RED FLAG AS IF WE ARE GOING TO
HAVE STORMS WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME QPF.  HOWEVER...WE ALSO HAVE
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOOT UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE AFTER
06Z TUESDAY. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SAT...BUT
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
* TEMPS TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS AGREE ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FEATURING A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND TIMING/TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRES
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY E ACROSS
SNE DURING THE DAY AS IT WAITS FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EML ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS E NEW ENG WHERE DEWPOINTS CLIMB NEAR 70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-
6KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHERE MAX INSTABILITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY E HALF NEW ENG. THE ONE RED FLAG IS
THE GFS/ECMWF NOT GENERATING ANY QPF AS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IS NOT CERTAIN SO NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...TIMING WILL BE
EARLIER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING INSTABILITY AXIS OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.

WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH NEW ENG. LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS ATTENDING SFC TROF PROVIDES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. IT IS LIKELY THAT A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. GFS IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS A SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH ON
THU WHILE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET BRING RAIN MOSTLY ON FRI...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SAT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FRI INTO SAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS AND RHODE ISLAND LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MONDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND FOR RHODE ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUND FOR
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR OUTER WATERS AND RHODE
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS INTO TUE
EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
120 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REMAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LOW RISK OF
SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. LOW RISK OF A STRONG STORM TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR
WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...
AND SKY COVER. BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...
AND SKY COVER. BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND
TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO
LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMERY DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF
THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER
AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




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