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000
FXUS61 KBOX 271807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
107 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW EAST OF THE CT VALLEY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN MASS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN RHODE ISLAND. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AND BELOW 1 MILE. BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE STORM CENTER EAST OF NANTUCKET...EXPECT THE SNOW
BAND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MASS/RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER 22Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE
EAST WITH 50-60 KNOT GUSTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE EASTERN
AREAS BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS UNDER
30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
107 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW EAST OF THE CT VALLEY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN MASS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN RHODE ISLAND. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AND BELOW 1 MILE. BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE STORM CENTER EAST OF NANTUCKET...EXPECT THE SNOW
BAND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MASS/RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER 22Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE
EAST WITH 50-60 KNOT GUSTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE EASTERN
AREAS BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS UNDER
30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1252 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW EAST OF THE CT VALLEY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN MASS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN RHODE ISLAND. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AND BELOW 1 MILE. BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE STORM CENTER EAST OF NANTUCKET...EXPECT THE SNOW
BAND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MASS/RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER 22Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE
EAST WITH 50-60 KNOT GUSTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE EASTERN
AREAS BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS UNDER
30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1252 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW EAST OF THE CT VALLEY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN MASS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT IN RHODE ISLAND. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AND BELOW 1 MILE. BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE STORM CENTER EAST OF NANTUCKET...EXPECT THE SNOW
BAND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MASS/RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER 22Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE
EAST WITH 50-60 KNOT GUSTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE EASTERN
AREAS BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS UNDER
30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT

* SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
  SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES

* DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT

1235 PM UPDATE...

JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT
AROUND NOON.  THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI.  THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.  SNOW WILL
DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>023.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO TONIGHT...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* MEANWHILE...JUST A MODERATE SNOWSTORM ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

905 AM UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE WAS TOO LOWER EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CT.  INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE
WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW HAS NOT AND WILL NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.  IN
FACT...JUST A MODERATE SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA
WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES AND WE ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH END FOR SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES.

MEANWHILE...A MAJOR TO HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  INTENSE MID LEVEL BANDING
HAS WEAKENED A TAD BUT WAS STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM NORTHWEST
RHODE ISLAND...TO NEAR WORCESTER AND NORTHEAST TO LAWRENCE.  GIVEN
THE STORM HAS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED...THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO EASTERN MA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WHILE IT WON/T BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER...STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES WITH IT.  STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND ZERO VISIBILITY.  NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
60 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...WITH STILL GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH
ON NANTUCKET.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS INTO TONIGHT...WHILE JUST A
MODERATE SNOWSTORM AFFECTS FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT
VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* MEANWHILE...JUST A MODERATE SNOWSTORM ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

905 AM UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE WAS TOO LOWER EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CT.  INTENSE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE
WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW HAS NOT AND WILL NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.  IN
FACT...JUST A MODERATE SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA
WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES AND WE ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH END FOR SOME OF OUR
FAR WESTERN ZONES.

MEANWHILE...A MAJOR TO HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  INTENSE MID LEVEL BANDING
HAS WEAKENED A TAD BUT WAS STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM NORTHWEST
RHODE ISLAND...TO NEAR WORCESTER AND NORTHEAST TO LAWRENCE.  GIVEN
THE STORM HAS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED...THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO EASTERN MA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WHILE IT WON/T BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER...STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES WITH IT.  STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND ZERO VISIBILITY.  NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
60 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST...WITH STILL GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH
ON NANTUCKET.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
834 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
834 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR. VERY STRONG
WIND CONTINUE WITH GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MASS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TODAY AND DIMINISHES
TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH
CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY
SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.
SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED
DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA
EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF
THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM
ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM
AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT
THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE
UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND
ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...
VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM...
LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS CAPE
COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX SNOWFALL
ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX ACROSS E MA
TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY
30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET UP. LESSER
AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR
THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH
IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...
COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...
AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW
TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL
THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED
HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER
INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS
EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

THURSDAY...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER
SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH
E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO
SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE
IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES
MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER...
FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT.
SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD.

HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME
INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH
MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND
PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING
FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG
WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF
  SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

HOW THESE BANDS EVOLVE TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE TRICKY. GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS E MA WHILE NAM IS FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MA INTO CT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST AND
KEEP THIS BAND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCD WITH THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS SE MA WILL RESULT IN A
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD WITH OCCASIONAL
HEAVY SNOW.

WE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW
ACCUM...LOWERING SLIGHTLY IN THE BERKSHIRES AND INCREASING ACROSS
CAPE COD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANAL. STILL LOOKING FOR MAX
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE CT THROUGH CENTRAL MA...WITH SECONDARY MAX
ACROSS E MA TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA...LOCALLY 30-36 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET
UP. LESSER AMOUNTS IN BETWEEN BANDS.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE
SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE
NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS
REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO
75 MPH IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND 30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST
OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE
COASTAL MA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT WITH SEAS 30-35 FT OVER THE E
WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES ***

POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND
COMBINING WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO YIELD
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AND INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
NANTUCKET...CAPE COD AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. TIDE GAUGES ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE AT 3 AM INDICATING STORM SURGE VALUES
ALREADY 2.5 TO 3.0 FT! THIS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE HIGHEST IMPACT
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE NANTUCKET/CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES OF HULL/MARSHFIELD AND SCITUATE.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO CAPE ANN HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SOUTH
SHORE.

THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION OF SEA
WATER. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED TO 18 TO 22 FT AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
COULD SEE OFFSHORE SEAS 25 TO 35 FT THIS AFTERNOON! THIS WILL RESULT
LARGE WAVES BATTERING SEAWALLS AND OTHER SHORELINE STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LARGE WAVE
ACTION TO YIELD SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

AS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A
HALF A FOOT LOWER HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LARGE AS THIS
MORNING OR POSSIBLE A FEW FEET HIGHER. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE SIMILAR
HOWEVER THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD BAY COMMUNITIES SUCH AS SANDWICH HARBOR. THUS LESS IMPACT
FOR NANTUCKET THAN THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR NANTUCKET.

SO IN A NUTSHELL...NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES WITH COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO TIDE CYCLES.

AS FOR RI...THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS COMMENCED WITH
HIGH TIDE ALREADY OCCURRING. THEREFORE THE RISK HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT LIFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA/RI WITH PERIODS OF
+SN/BLSN. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL. N-NE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KT ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY UP TO
80 KT ON THE E END OF NANTUCKET AND POSSIBLY OUTER CAPE
COD...35-50 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF E MA INTO E RI. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH LLWS AT 2KFT. ISOLD THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER W...MVFR-IFR CIGS/IFR-LIFR VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF VLIFR IN
ANY +SN BANDS MOVING ACROSS. N GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN/BLSN THROUGH
16Z-18Z ACROSS E MA/RI...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. N-NE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE UP TO 50-60 KT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ON CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. CENTRAL-W AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL LIFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF +SN THROUGH MIDDAY. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS E MA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CENTRAL-W AREAS...VSBYS IMPROVE ACROSS TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH CIGS MVFR- IFR EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. E MA/RI...IFR-LIFR CIGS/
VSBYS EARLY...SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270228
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270228
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

930 PM UPDATE...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
WITH 2-3"/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4"/HR
RATES.

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
REPORT OF 4.5" AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE BAND OF INCH
PER HOUR SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WILL
CROSS PVD/BOS/BDL BY 03Z. BRIEF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BROADER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 262354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 20-30 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF
WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING
BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE BAND OF INCH
PER HOUR SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND WILL
CROSS PVD/BOS/BDL BY 03Z. BRIEF INCH PER HOUR SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE BROADER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES...AND LOCAL 4
INCH PER HOUR RATES POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MASS...40-50 KNOTS IN THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN
AREA...AND 50-70 KNOTS CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE IN AT 2000 FEET AGL LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG WIND CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS 70-80 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MASS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND DIMINISHES
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 262200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE
COD...ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK
* CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI
* MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

26/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL
SYNOPTIC HANDLING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CRUCIAL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT THOUGH. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS
APPROACH.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE WITH DIMINISHING
WIND...SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS WEEK TO DIAL THIS IN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE PRIMARY TRACK
OF A CLIPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SNOWFALL. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION IF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP AND GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  29/12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...BOTH IN TRACK AND TIMING. AT PRESENT...WILL PLACE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WE COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTENSIFIES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH ROUGH SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
  EASTERN MA COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY
  LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE MA E COAST FOR BOTH THE TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

CHANGES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST ISSUANCE. HAVE TWEAKED WAVE AND STORM SURGE FORECASTS
ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT THE COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT FOR
THIS STORM TO BE ON PAR WITH THAT FROM THE FEBRUARY 2013 EVENT. KEEP
IN MIND...HOWEVER...THAT NO TWO STORMS ARE EVER EXACTLY ALIKE. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED A LITTLE LESS AND OTHERS A LITTLE MORE
WITH THIS STORM.

TIDE TIMES...ALONG THE MA E COAST...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6
AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. HIGH
TIDE SPECIFICALLY IN BOSTON IS AROUND 430 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND NEAR 5 PM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THE RI COASTLINE...HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...THE STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE 3
TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY EARLY AM
HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE
SEAS TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN BUT NOT LIMITED TO HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
AND WAVE RUNUP. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW
INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES. WE
ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL FOR EAST FACING
SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...PLYMOUTH...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND
NANTUCKET.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...THIS TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW TENTHS
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS MAY STILL BE 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING
EROSION ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE
EROSION IS LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD FROM SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THAT TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT SOME AREAS
COMPROMISED BY THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE POUNDED A SECOND
TIME BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COAST...PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN EXPOSED
RHODE ISLAND COAST...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MINOR EROSION FOR THE HIGH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS ON TOP OF ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRECLUDE ANY COASTAL
IMPACTS.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURGE AND SWELL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND SOME EROSION ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK/99
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR
LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
 - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
 - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
 - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
 - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
 - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES W TO E AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING REARWARD AROUND THE
LOW WILL LEND TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OF WHICH WILL INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING THOUGH NOT
AS WIDESPREAD...MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS
AND THE LOW STACKS / OCCLUDES LENDING TO ITS DYING STAGE. ALL THAT
WILL BE LEFT IS ROBUST NW-WINDS DRAWING COLDER AIR S GENERATING
FAIRLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER
OF SNOW ANTICIPATED.

OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

SO A WORD OF CAUTION. WHILE THERE IS FOCUS OF TWO AREAS ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN...THIS IS
AN UNPRECEDENTED STORM FOR ALL S NEW ENGLAND FOR WHICH PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MADE AND ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON A SIMILAR NATURE
NO MATTER IF YOU`RE UNDER A BLIZZARD OR WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON
THE ROADS...LEAVING THEM CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND SNOW-
REMOVAL EQUIPMENT. YOU SHOULD BE TAKING SHELTER AND MAKING PLANS IN
CASE YOU BECOME TRAPPED FOR DAYS AND/OR LOSE POWER. CONSIDER ANY AND
ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE.

*/ PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE E-HALF OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...POSSIBLY MARTHAS VINEYARD
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE TRANSITION LINE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME PRIOR TO CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW
AS WE GO INTO LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT. PRECIP N/W
OF H925 0C LINE / COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF THE DRY-SLOT AROUND -10C HAS IT CONFINED MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED. FEEL THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVELS ESPECIALLY WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT AND MESOSCALE BANDING SHOULD BE DEEP AND COLD ENOUGH
TO RETAIN THE PRESENCE OF ICE AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER.

*/ BLIZZARD...

TWO AREAS OF FOCUS: SE AND W NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHLIGHTED MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING UP ABOVE. ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN BANDING...ALONG WITH THUNDERSNOW
POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
6-HOURS. COUPLED WITH WINDS ESPECIALLY E/SE WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD /
WHITE-OUT / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL
GRAPHIC UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THINKING. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
DID NOT GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST.

LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TOWARDS THE NW IN COLDER AIR. A WETTER
SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE SE. COMBINING WITH WINDS WILL MAKE
SE NEW ENGLAND BOTH VULNERABLE AND THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR POWER
OUTAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNED TREE / TREE LIMBS / STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UPWARDS
OF 3 FEET...MAINLY IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE
SNOW-BANDING IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE/LIFE-THREATENING
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

*/ WINDS...

STRONGEST NE-WINDS CENTERED AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AGREE WITH
PRIOR FORECASTER THAT LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WELL-MIXED UP TO H9 SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN LOWEST 2 KFT TO MIX-DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH REMAIN
FORECASTED FOR SE-COASTAL MA INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN CAPE ANN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. SUCH WINDS ARE COVERED WITHIN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...THUS HURRICANE WIND FORCE WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED.

SO TO REITERATE...70 TO 80 MPH FOR SE-COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND EVEN
POSSIBLY FOR CAPE ANN. AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS INLAND AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR / ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR.

WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...DOWNED TREES/TREE LIMBS...STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. RISKS ARE GREATER WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY / WET /
MORE WATER LADEN. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OVERALL WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS.

*/ COASTAL FLOODING...

FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP
SNOW PACK IN PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD
FALL BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IF THE ENERGY
ENDS UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. ONE BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1-2 MILES MIDDAY. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 4-6 MILES BRIEFLY. CIGS AND VSBYS MVFR NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND TREND TO IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF THE PIKE AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. MOST AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KNOTS IN THE CT
VALLEY AND 50-60 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS AT 2000 FEET
WILL REACH 70-80 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ISLANDS...LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH
 TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AND TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HAVE CONVERTED THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND
6 AM AND AGAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN
BOSTON HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM AND 5 PM.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...STILL ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE
TO BE 3 TO 3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING. THE ACTUAL PEAK STORM TIDE
COULD BE 15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE SCHEDULED HIGH TIDE IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO INCREASING SURGE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET
JUST OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. SEAS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IN TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT LIMITED TO
HULL...SCITUATE...AND MARSHFIELD. NE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE EARLY TUESDAY
AM HIGH TIDE...PERHAPS EVEN GUSTING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KT OFF
ALONG THE CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET COAST. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP
AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR
MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER
BEACHES. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE EROSION POTENTIAL
FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES ALONG PLUM ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM
AND NANTUCKET.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD
BE STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. AREAS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. BESIDES
CONTINUING CONCERNS REGARDING EROSION ALONG PLUM
ISLAND...ORLEANS...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET...SEVERE EROSION IS
LIKELY TO BE ALSO A CONCERN ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WINDS WILL SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY THAT TIME.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES...THEN MORE AREAS WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

655 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.  EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE EASTERN MA
COAST...WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...VFR
REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT EARLIER ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
621 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

620 AM UPDATE...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS....EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
IT WAS IN THE 20S.  THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE COASTAL FRONT THAT
WILL SET UP INTO TUESDAY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO PRECIP NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.  MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THE
STEADIER SNOW WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.  VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT
A SLOW DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.
DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEST AND COLD HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS QC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY PULLING N. HOWEVER...IT
IS THANKS TO THIS BLOCK...AND THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE THAN THERE
WAS WITH THE WEEKEND STORM...THAT WILL ALLOW LOW PRES...NEWLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE VA/NC COASTLINE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SLOW AS
IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK BY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT ECHOS ARE ALREADY APPARENT S OF LI THIS
MORNING...THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WHERE DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15F
WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE INITIAL ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SFC...LOCKING THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND HOLDING OFF SNOWFALL
UNTIL MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. QPF IS LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
COUPLE INCHES OR LESS.

THE ONLY CAVEAT THOUGH...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
SNOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE E COAST OF MA. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALLS...DEVELOPING OFF OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DURING
THE EARLIER COMMUTE AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING STORM...SO AREAS IN THE
BOS METRO AND N AND S SHORES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM RAMPS UP TONIGHT ***

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HISTORICAL BLIZZARD IMPACTING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THERE ARE NOT SOME MESOSCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE APPROACHES. AT
ISSUE AT THIS POINT...ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL LOW PRES DEPTH
PRIOR TO THE OCCLUSION PROCESS RANGING FROM 978 HPA ON THE NAM/CMC
TO 984 ON THE GFS. AT ODDS ALSO...IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO
DISTINCT BANDED SNOW FEATURES...THE FIRST...A LONG AND SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION/F-GEN BAND STRETCHING FROM COASTAL MAIN INTO INTERIOR
SRN NEW ENGLAND...THE TIP OF WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE
CT VALLEY TO METRO-WEST AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. AVAILABLE WRF
OUTPUTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NMM FURTHER W WITH
THE HEAVIER BANDING...WHILE THE ARW IS SUGGESTING THE E. THE OTHER
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FORM CENTRAL RI THROUGH ABOUT THE S SHORE/BOS
METRO OF MASS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS AND WAVERS INLAND. SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO BULLSEYES OF SNOW
TOTALS TO WATCH...WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO EXCEED 2
FT. FINALLY...THIS BANDING LOCATION WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON
FINAL TRACK...WHICH ARE STILL IN SOME MESO-SCALE DISPUTE WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE THE ECWMF/NAM ARE JUST INSIDE AND MUCH SLOWER...STALLING THE
LOW PRES ONLY ABOUT 50 NM SE OF ACK. THEREFORE...THE BANDING AND
AXIS OF 2.5-3.0 INCH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO WAVER A
BIT...AND WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING. WILL
TRY TO SHOW THIS TWO-BULLSEYE SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS ALL
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL NOTE BE MADE.

DETAILS/IMPACTS...

PRECIP TYPE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
BRIEFLY ESPECIALLY FOR ACK...WITH THE H92 0C LINE INCHING CLOSE
/BUT STAYING MAINLY S WITH THE 00Z RUNS/. NAM IS COLDEST WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT COOLING SHIFT OF RECENT RUNS AND EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES
AND BASED ON IMPACT POTENTIAL...WILL BE UPGRADING ACK TO A WINTER
STORM WATCH THIS THIS UPDATE...AS INITIAL SNOW...FOLLOWED BY BACK
END AFTER THE POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER...COULD STILL EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA.

TOTAL SNOWFALL/BLIZZARD...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE..WE ARE ALREADY NOTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE N AND S SHORES /BOS METRO ALSO/ AROUND THE TIME OF AFTERNOON
RUSH. GIVEN THE STORM PREP...IT/S POSSIBLE MORE COULD BE ON THE
ROAD. THEREFORE...MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES UP FROM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. BY 00Z IT SHOULD BE SNOWING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTLY TO START
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY TOTALS LIKELY
FALLING BELOW AN INCH OR TWO.

AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TWO BANDING LOCATIONS...ONE
FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER
CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT
ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST
INDICATE THAT WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3
IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE
AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.

THEREFORE...FEEL THE MENTION OF 2+ FT OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
INTERIOR TO E MA/RI AND EVEN NRN CT IS POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 3 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. REGARDING THE
BLIZZARDS...BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES STILL SUPPORT WINDS NEAR BLIZZ
CRITERIA ALONG WITH THIS POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITHIN THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS...SO NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOWER SN RATIOS NEARER TO THE COASTAL FRONT
LOCATIONS...COLOCATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PORTIONS OF SE MA /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST/ FOR THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER RATIOS FURTHER INLAND
/COLDER AIR/ ARE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE END TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE...SE MA AND E RI LATE TUE
INTO WED...WHICH MAY SNOW UNTIL AFTER NOON ON WED. HOWEVER...BY
TUE NIGHT...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES FROM W TO E.

WINDS...
GFS HAS BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE LLJ...NOW SUPPORTING 65 KT AT
H92 FROM SRN RI THROUGH BOS AND POINTS SE. HOWEVER...NAM/ECMWF
CONTINUE LEAN CLOSER TO 70-80 KT. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT
AT LEAST 75-80 PERCENT OF THIS MOMENTUM BEING MIXED ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. THEREFORE...CAN STILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE VELOCITY NEAR THE SHORE...PARTICULARLY THE
OUTER ARM OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALTHOUGH THIS TAPERS
INLAND...STILL COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH AS FAR INLAND
AS RI AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHERE THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER RATIO /MORE WATER LADEN/ SNOW...COULD PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND THEREFORE POTENTIALLY MORE POWER OUTAGES.

COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR MORE ON THIS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END WED MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT AND WITH DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE/DIMINISHING WIND SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
FRI.  THIS SYSTEM WON/T COMPARE TO WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SHORTWAVE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  IF THE ENERGY ENDS
UP GOING NORTH OF US WILL JUST HAVE A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER CAPE/ISLANDS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME SNOW SOMETIME THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

*** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ***

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST...SLOWING NEAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
WILL GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 KT OUT OF THE NE. EXPECT SEAS TO
APPROACH 30 FT OVER THE E WATERS AS WELL. HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS CLOSER
TO THE SHORE. IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT MARINERS RETURN TO PORT BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER GALE FORCE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THU INTO EARLY
FRI.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** A PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TUE AM ***

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH TO SPLASH OVER
SEAS WALLS FOR OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY
PRONE TO IT. SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WAVE RUNUP AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A
STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST
AND NORTHEAST FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE STILL 25
TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS TO 70 KT POSSIBLE!/ AND SURGE...WHICH APPEAR TO OCCUR
AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE TUE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW TIDE AND HIGH TIDE IS ONLY 6 HRS THERE
ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE
COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THESE HIGH TIDES MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. INCREASED SKY COVER AND
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 21Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR REMAINS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...AT WHICH POINT A SLOW
DIP WITH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. SNOWS
MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18-21Z...BUT WILL BE LIGHT TO START.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGIN
TO DIP FROM MVFR TO VLIFR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRPORTS REACHING
MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING TUE. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
HEAVY-BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AIRPORTS SEEING
2-3 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...40-50 MPH INLAND AT TIMES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70-80 MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...LLWS IS LIKELY AS WINDS AT 2KFT ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 70-80 KT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ237-251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM MORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR N. CAROLINA MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ENSURE THAT TIMING/HOURLY TEMPS AND DWPTS
WERE IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252329
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE 20S THIS
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTY MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252329
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE 20S THIS
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTY MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252133
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
  NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
  COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST.  THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET.  AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE.  ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.  ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.  DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.  GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS.

SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY /ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN GFS/
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 50-65 KTS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...
FOCUSING ON THE UPCOMING NOREASTER/BLIZZARD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM
FORCE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT
   AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 30 FT OVER EASTERN WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. IN BOSTON
HIGH TIDE IS AT 430 AM. HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE AND HAVE KEPT THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE...ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO BE 3 TO
3.5 FEET AND STILL RISING TO POSSIBLY 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY THE TIME OF
THE LATER TUESDAY MORNING LOW TIDE. BY THE TUESDAY EARLY AM HIGH
TIDE...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NE SURFACE WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO BE GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT BY THE TIME OF THE
EARLY TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. THESE SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
OVERWASH TO BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE PLACES TYPICALLY PRONE TO IT.
SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS AND STRONG WAVE ACTION. THIS IS A STORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE NEW INLETS ALONG EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST
FACING BARRIER BEACHES.

THE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER
ASTRONOMICALLY BUT THE SURGE COULD BE ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER THAN AT THE TUESDAY AM HIGH TIDE. ALSO SEAS COULD BE
STILL 25 TO 30 FEET JUST OFFSHORE AT THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ005>007-012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-023.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235.
     STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237-
     251.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS. AT THIS
POINT...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR
AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND
LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY.  THEREFORE...NOT
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR.  FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.  MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND.
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY.  HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE
PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL
UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS. AT THIS
POINT...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18Z.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251422
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
922 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING N MA WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ACROSS SNE WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY
LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL END FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY THEN SLOWLY FALL THIS
AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN CAA PATTERN WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DIP BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251422
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
922 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING N MA WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER ACROSS SNE WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY
LEFTOVER FLURRIES WILL END FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY THEN SLOWLY FALL THIS
AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NW WINDS DEVELOPING IN CAA PATTERN WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DIP BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

715 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED OUR WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES.  THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS CROSSING THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID
DAY...WITH GRADUAL COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY DIP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

715 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED OUR WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES.  THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS CROSSING THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID
DAY...WITH GRADUAL COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY DIP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

655 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED OUR WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES.  THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
CROSSING THE REGION.

THIS WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID
DAY...WITH GRADUAL COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY DIP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH ONLY A FLURRY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

655 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED OUR WESTERN ZONES ALONG WITH A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES.  THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
CROSSING THE REGION.

THIS WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID
DAY...WITH GRADUAL COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY DIP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH ONLY A FLURRY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID DAY...WITH GRADUAL
COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY DIP BACK INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS
WITH ONLY A FLURRY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A MAJOR AND
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOUT MID DAY...WITH GRADUAL
COOLING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE MIXING SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
20-25 KT /25-30 MPH/ THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY DIP BACK INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS
WITH ONLY A FLURRY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK NOSE OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS. THIS COLD BLOCKING HIGH PRES WILL BE THE
FEATURE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY WEEK STORM. THE WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ABILITY TO RADIATE. IN
ANY CASE...THE INCREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
YIELD A COOL NIGHT. SUSPECT SOME AREAS DO DIP BELOW 0F IN NW
VALLEYS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

MON...
HIGH PRES SLIDES ITSELF INTO PLACE TO THE N DURING THE MORNING.
GIVEN IT/S PLACEMENT AND LOCATION...AND THE FACT THAT IT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DWPTS STARTING IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
MON MORNING...LIKE THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP DISPLAYED BY THE
NAM/ECMWF. THEREFORE...ONLY BRING CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE MIX
BY THE EVENING TIMEFRAME MON...SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOWS TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE DAY ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS BY BEFORE MON NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS CT...SW MA AND S RI. MOS HIGHS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM GIVEN
THE INDICATION OF WET BULB PROCESSES...SO WENT A BIT COOLER. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARD EVENING AS WELL...BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST

DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM.  IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.  VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.  GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.  CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT.  WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.  IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL CLEAR BY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25
  FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY***

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  STORM
WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND
MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL
SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP.  IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ005>007-013>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250556
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP HAS ENDED BUT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT COOLING A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO BE IN THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250556
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP HAS ENDED BUT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT COOLING A
BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT MOST PLACES TO BE IN THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A LOOK AT AVAILABLE SFC DATA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW IS CONTINUING TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...CONTINUE TO NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD RAPIDLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION...SUCH
THAT...AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...ONLY CAPE COD...ACK AND MVY
CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW. EXTRAPOLATING SPEED SUGGETS IT SHOULD BE
DONE BY MIDNIGHT IN ALL LOCATIONS.

HAVE HOISTED AN SPS ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
1330Z...FOR LEFTOVER WET ROADWAYS AND FALLING TEMPS...LEADING TO
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND BLACK ICE. WOULD RATHER HAVE THIS WORD OUT
EARLY THAN WAIT UNTIL MORNING TO DO SO...THAT WAY ACTION COULD BE
TAKEN IN ADVANCE.

OTHERWISE...GRIDS ALL ADJUSTED TOWARD CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A LOOK AT AVAILABLE SFC DATA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW IS CONTINUING TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...CONTINUE TO NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD RAPIDLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION...SUCH
THAT...AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...ONLY CAPE COD...ACK AND MVY
CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW. EXTRAPOLATING SPEED SUGGETS IT SHOULD BE
DONE BY MIDNIGHT IN ALL LOCATIONS.

HAVE HOISTED AN SPS ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
1330Z...FOR LEFTOVER WET ROADWAYS AND FALLING TEMPS...LEADING TO
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND BLACK ICE. WOULD RATHER HAVE THIS WORD OUT
EARLY THAN WAIT UNTIL MORNING TO DO SO...THAT WAY ACTION COULD BE
TAKEN IN ADVANCE.

OTHERWISE...GRIDS ALL ADJUSTED TOWARD CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
LAST OF SNOW EXITING CENTRAL MA/NE CT AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AS PRECIP EXITS SO HAVE KEPT WIND
ADVISORY UP FOR NOW.

HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ON THE EXPIRING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
WELL AS THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAPE COD ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF BLACK ICE FORMING OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE EXITING PRECIP.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...
NOTING THE LIGHT PRECIP IS MAINLY SNOW NOW AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO N-NW. NOTING GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT KHYA AND 27 KT AT KACK AT
00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
LAST OF SNOW EXITING CENTRAL MA/NE CT AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AS PRECIP EXITS SO HAVE KEPT WIND
ADVISORY UP FOR NOW.

HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ON THE EXPIRING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
WELL AS THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAPE COD ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF BLACK ICE FORMING OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE EXITING PRECIP.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...
NOTING THE LIGHT PRECIP IS MAINLY SNOW NOW AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO N-NW. NOTING GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT KHYA AND 27 KT AT KACK AT
00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT...MAINLY VFR THOUGH LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z.

CENTRAL-E MA/NE CT/RI...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BANDS OF LIGHT
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W-E THROUGH 02Z-04Z. MAY SEE
ICY SURFACES DEVELOPING AT AIRPORT TARMACS AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E THROUGH 04Z-05Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 15 FT ON
THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. NOTING SEAS AT 20 FT AT BUOY 44008 AT
00Z AND 13 FT AT 44097.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242220
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ANTICIPATE STEPPING DOWN OR TAKING DOWN ALL HEADLINES BETWEEN 5
AND 7 PM. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION AND A
BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ACROSS SE ZONES FOR 2-3 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
RELATED CONCERN IS THAT ANTICIPATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LAST BAND OF
SNOW PASSES THROUGH. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO KEEP WARNINGS POSTED WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION BUT SEE A RISK OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
FOR A SHORT TIME IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS BEFORE IMPROVING FOR
GOOD. ANTICIPATE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER PAST BY 7 OR
8 PM...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE THAT MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED
IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW IN PLACE BRINGING COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY START TO SEE CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA RANGING TO 20-25 ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

MONDAY...
NOTING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE DIVING SE TO THE SE U.S. STATES
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRES TO FORM OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST BY MON EVENING. LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MON WILL VEER TO NE AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.

SOME MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MOST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE TO THE 00Z OP ECMWF RUN...SIGNALING VERY STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WHICH MEANS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HUG CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...BUT HOW LONG IS ALSO
STILL IN QUESTION. OVERALL...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL BUT DETAILS IN QUESTION. ONE MODEL IN PARTICULAR THAT IS
IN QUESTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH ACTUALLY HUGS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW.
ALL OP MODELS DO THE PRES DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA BY LATE TUE/TUE
NIGHT...SO ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG NE WINDS. HIGH PRES IS ALSO
SET UP N OF THE REGION...ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES
KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE.

SO...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEASON/S FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS E MA INTO E RI. THE NEXT BIG
QUESTION IS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A TIME
WITH THIS STORM. NOTE THAT THE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS SUSTAINED
WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AND VSBYS LESS THAN
1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
BE THERE...BUT VSBYS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH SOME PERIODS OF 1 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER.

WITH THE VERY STRONG E-NE FETCH IN PLACE...COULD SEE PROBLEMS
WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH MINOR SPLASHOVER OR
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WE HAVE HELD OFF ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL IN AN
EVENT. ONCE THIS ONE MOVES OFF...AND THE 00Z MODELS COME IN...
DECISIONS CAN BE MADE ON HEADLINES FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT TIMING OF ITS
EXIT STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...DO HAVE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM W-E...BUT WILL STILL SEE COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS DURING THURSDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
LOW MOVE ACROSS EITHER THU NIGHT OR FRI AS THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS IN QUESTION SO
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SNOW TO THE NW OF A BOS-IJD LINE...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THAT LINE...AND RAIN TO THE SE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRPORTS IN EASTERN MA AND RI
MAY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. ANY
UNTREATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY ICE UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT LIKELY OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E 00Z TO 02Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE
OF NANTUCKET. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR ACROSS E MA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. NE WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT LEAST
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN QUESTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO ABOUT 15 FT
ON THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO E-NE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT. LOW PROB FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE NE GUSTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE PROB OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH
WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
     003-008-009-017>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     RIZ002>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BUT ALSO RAPIDLY MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL
HEAD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD
EMERGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

ANTICIPATE STEPPING DOWN OR TAKING DOWN ALL HEADLINES BETWEEN 5
AND 7 PM. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION AND A
BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ACROSS SE ZONES FOR 2-3 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
RELATED CONCERN IS THAT ANTICIPATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LAST BAND OF
SNOW PASSES THROUGH. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO KEEP WARNINGS POSTED WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION BUT SEE A RISK OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
FOR A SHORT TIME IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS BEFORE IMPROVING FOR
GOOD. ANTICIPATE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER PAST BY 7 OR
8 PM...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE THAT MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED
IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
  CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.  FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.  KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT.  MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...

IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED.  STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR.  SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SNOW TO THE NW OF A BOS-IJD LINE...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THAT LINE...AND RAIN TO THE SE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRPORTS IN EASTERN MA AND RI
MAY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. ANY
UNTREATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY ICE UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT LIKELY OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E 00Z TO 02Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE.  HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.


TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO ABOUT 15 FT
ON THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA.  HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE.  MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
     003-008-009-017>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     RIZ002>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242037
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BUT ALSO RAPIDLY MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL
HEAD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD
EMERGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

ANTICIPATE STEPPING DOWN OR TAKING DOWN ALL HEADLINES BETWEEN 5
AND 7 PM. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION AND A
BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ACROSS SE ZONES FOR 2-3 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
RELATED CONCERN IS THAT ANTICIPATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LAST BAND OF
SNOW PASSES THROUGH. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO KEEP WARNINGS POSTED WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION BUT SEE A RISK OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
FOR A SHORT TIME IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS BEFORE IMPROVING FOR
GOOD. ANTICIPATE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER PAST BY 7 OR
8 PM...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE THAT MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED
IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW
  CONFIDENCE
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

DETAILS...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  THIS ALLOWS
FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.  FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.  KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT.  MUCH OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE
ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD
NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD
MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...

IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN
END BY EARLY WED.  STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR.  SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SNOW TO THE NW OF A BOS-IJD LINE...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THAT LINE...AND RAIN TO THE SE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRPORTS IN EASTERN MA AND RI
MAY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. ANY
UNTREATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY ICE UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT LIKELY OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W
TO E 00Z TO 02Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES
TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z.
BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE.  HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF
THE STORM.

WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE
STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.


TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO ABOUT 15 FT
ON THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA.  HOW CLOSE THIS
LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE
MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+
FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE.  MAY HAVE
AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS
THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF
CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-
     003-008-009-017>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ004>007-010>016-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     RIZ002>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





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