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000
FXUS61 KBOX 062213
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
613 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DRY...MILD BUT WINDY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLE
WITH MILD AFTERNOON/S. THERE STILL REMAINS THE LOW RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF COOL AND WET WEATHER SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST DATA HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF A PROVIDENCE TO
WORCESTER LINE DIMINISH TO A FEW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT***

610 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A
PROVIDENCE TO WORCESTER LINE EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS A RESULT OF
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MA...NORTHERN CT AND RI
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MA.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM WESTERN ZONES AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL
WHICH WILL STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES WITH TT INCREASING INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

STRONGER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION
BY MIDNIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH TO A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY ...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST
OVER THE OCEAN AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
WEAK...BUT 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -21C WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
7-7.5 C/KM SUPPORTS SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. GIVEN LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS CANT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL. MID LEVELS DRY OUT AFT 18Z
WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THREAT LATER IN THE DAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY SO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPS REACHING LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE PIKE WITH 50S TO THE
NORTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES WILL
ACT AS A KICKER AND FINALLY PUSH MID LEVEL LOW EAST.
HOWEVER...THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W NEW ENG
TOWARD 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT ALONG WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS SUN AM BUT TURNING PARTLY SUNNY/WINDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
* DRY AND MILD MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY
* MODELS BACKING OFF ON COOL/WET WEATHER TUE/WED BUT NOT SET IN STONE
* SEASONABLE TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY NEXT THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...

MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING.  ENOUGH FORCING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.  IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH 850T
ARE ONLY BETWEEN +2C AND +4C...WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME SUN THIS TIME
OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S
TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT WITH THE AFTERNOON MODEL
GUIDANCE.  LAST NIGHT/S 00Z MODELS DEPICTED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...RESULTING IN RAW EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED AWAY FROM THAT...AS THEY NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
FORCING THE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE RESULT WOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH JUST THE LOW RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND MILD
AFTERNOONS.

WE DID NOT WANT TO MAKE A DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT BASED ON JUST THE 12Z
GUIDANCE 4 TO 5 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT DID TREND MILDER AND
LOWERED POPS.  A FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE CMC STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER.  SO TO
SUMMARIZE...ITS TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN A DRY/MILD SOLUTION BUT DID
TREND A BIT MORE IN THAT DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

SEASONABLE TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER
LIKELY THURSDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
SOMETIME FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS
AND FOG.  SHOWERS MOST PREVALENT IN THE EVENING...CENTRAL/W NEW ENG
AND CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO W NEW ENG 09-12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  LATEST
INDICATIONS DO FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STAYING WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF EASTERLY GUSTS 20-25 KT ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT E SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. SCA CONTINUES. VSBYS
LOWERING IN AREAS OF FOG. EVENING SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...E/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. LINGERING SWELL OVER THE
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN MORNING FOG. LOW RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT BELOW SCA. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN
FOG. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE...ESPECIALLY MID
TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK A FEW PLACES
BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO SUPPRESS IT SOUTH.  THIS IS STILL NOT SET IN
STONE...BUT IF LATER MODEL RUNS HOLD WINDS/SEAS MAY BE BELOW SCA
HEADLINES OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MINIMAL SURGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MODEST ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SURGE BELOW 0.5 FT AT HIGH TIDE. THAT/S
SUFFICIENT FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE SO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 062000
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DRY...MILD BUT WINDY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLE
WITH MILD AFTERNOON/S. THERE STILL REMAINS THE LOW RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF COOL AND WET WEATHER SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST DATA HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS MID
ATLC REGION TONIGHT. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS BLOSSOMING AS IT LIFTS N ACROSS CENTRAL/W NEW ENG THIS
EVENING AS VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW. WILL HAVE A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING AND CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM
WESTERN ZONES AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL WHICH WILL STEEPENING THE
LAPSE RATES WITH TT INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY ...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST
OVER THE OCEAN AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
WEAK...BUT 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -21C WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
7-7.5 C/KM SUPPORTS SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. GIVEN LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS CANT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL. MID LEVELS DRY OUT AFT 18Z
WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THREAT LATER IN THE DAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY SO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. TEMPS REACHING LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE PIKE WITH 50S TO THE
NORTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GT LAKES WILL
ACT AS A KICKER AND FINALLY PUSH MID LEVEL LOW EAST.
HOWEVER...THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W NEW ENG
TOWARD 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT ALONG WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS SUN AM BUT TURNING PARTLY SUNNY/WINDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
* DRY AND MILD MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY
* MODELS BACKING OFF ON COOL/WET WEATHER TUE/WED BUT NOT SET IN STONE
* SEASONABLE TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY NEXT THU/FRI

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...

MOST GUIDANCE HAS HAS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING.  ENOUGH FORCING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
LIKELY SEE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.  IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  ALTHOUGH 850T
ARE ONLY BETWEEN +2C AND +4C...WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME SUN THIS TIME
OF YEAR SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S
TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 70S.  IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT WITH THE AFTERNOON MODEL
GUIDANCE.  LAST NIGHT/S 00Z MODELS DEPICTED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...RESULTING IN RAW EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED AWAY FROM THAT...AS THEY NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
FORCING THE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE RESULT WOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH JUST THE LOW RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND MILD
AFTERNOONS.

WE DID NOT WANT TO MAKE A DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT BASED ON JUST THE 12Z
GUIDANCE 4 TO 5 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT DID TREND MILDER AND
LOWERED POPS.  A FEW 12Z GEFS MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE CMC STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF COOL/WET WEATHER.  SO TO
SUMMARIZE...ITS TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN A DRY/MILD SOLUTION BUT DID
TREND A BIT MORE IN THAT DIRECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

SEASONABLE TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER
LIKELY THURSDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
SOMETIME FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING N THROUGH CT/RI
AND CENTRAL/W MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS MOST
PREVALENT IN THE EVENING...CENTRAL/W NEW ENG AND CANT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO W NEW ENG 09-12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  LATEST
INDICATIONS DO FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STAYING WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF EASTERLY GUSTS 20-25 KT ACROSS S COASTAL
WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT E SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. SCA CONTINUES. VSBYS
LOWERING IN AREAS OF FOG. EVENING SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...E/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. LINGERING SWELL OVER THE
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN MORNING FOG. LOW RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT BELOW SCA. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN
FOG. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN MORNING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE...ESPECIALLY MID
TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK A FEW PLACES
BRIEFLY APPROACH 35 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO SUPPRESS IT SOUTH.  THIS IS STILL NOT SET IN
STONE...BUT IF LATER MODEL RUNS HOLD WINDS/SEAS MAY BE BELOW SCA
HEADLINES OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MINIMAL SURGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MODEST ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY SEE A SURGE BELOW 0.5 FT AT HIGH TIDE. THAT/S
SUFFICIENT FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE SO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 061755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY DREARY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ. DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE WEST OF SNE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN RI AND CT AND WILL AFFECT
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND W/MA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS N THROUGH CENTRAL/W PORTIONS OF SNE THIS EVENING AS VORT
LOBE ROTATES NORTHWARD. RAISED TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR A FEW
DEGREES PER CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING N THROUGH CT/RI
AND CENTRAL/W MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS MOST
PREVALENT IN THE EVENING...CENTRAL/W NEW ENG AND CANT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO W NEW ENG 09-12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR WHILE W/NW WINDS
IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO EVENING. A
LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS -RA MOVES
BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY
RI WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS.
LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 061755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY DREARY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ. DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE WEST OF SNE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN RI AND CT AND WILL AFFECT
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND W/MA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS N THROUGH CENTRAL/W PORTIONS OF SNE THIS EVENING AS VORT
LOBE ROTATES NORTHWARD. RAISED TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR A FEW
DEGREES PER CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING N THROUGH CT/RI
AND CENTRAL/W MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. SHOWERS MOST
PREVALENT IN THE EVENING...CENTRAL/W NEW ENG AND CANT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO W NEW ENG 09-12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR WHILE W/NW WINDS
IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO EVENING. A
LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS -RA MOVES
BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY
RI WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS.
LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 061423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY DREARY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ. DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS MID ATLC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH EASTERN EXTENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W CT. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCD
WITH ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF DELMARVA WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY. BEST FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL KEEP STEADIEST RAINFALL SOUTH AND
WEST OF NEW ENG TODAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL SPILL
INTO WESTERN MA/CT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION WITH POPS DECREASING TO THE EAST. IN
FACT MOST OF THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY ACROSS E MA. LATE TODAY AND
MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING WE MAY SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE
NORTH ACROSS SNE AHEAD OF VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST FOR TODAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION UNDER THE UPPER LOW...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL
WITH INCREASING TOTAL TOTALS.

A FEW BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ANY BREAKS WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. TEMPS
NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LOW 60S CT VALLEY IN W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR / MVFR MIXING OUT INTO MIDDAY TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE -RA IS
DOMINANT. N/E EVOLVES TO A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME CLEARING. BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...LIKELY TO SEE IFR RETURN FROM S TO N. E
WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR LOWERING IFR. TRYING NOT TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH N/E
TERMINALS KEEPING LOWEST CONDITIONS S/W WITH CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA THREATS. -RA/-DZ LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME
VISIBILITY ISSUES.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH -DZ/FG GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE HOW THIS EVOLVES BUT THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY MIXING OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWERING INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED E
WIND. WILL HOLD MAJORITY -RA JUST TO THE S/W BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME -RA MOVING IN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY MVFR TO LOW END VFR WITH -RA AND ISOLATED
-TSRA THIS EVENING. MAIN THEME FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHOULD LOWER IFR INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY
RI WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS.
LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 061423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY DREARY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ. DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS MID ATLC REGION THIS MORNING
WITH EASTERN EXTENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W CT. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCD
WITH ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF DELMARVA WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY. BEST FORCING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL KEEP STEADIEST RAINFALL SOUTH AND
WEST OF NEW ENG TODAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL SPILL
INTO WESTERN MA/CT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION WITH POPS DECREASING TO THE EAST. IN
FACT MOST OF THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY ACROSS E MA. LATE TODAY AND
MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING WE MAY SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE
NORTH ACROSS SNE AHEAD OF VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST FOR TODAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION UNDER THE UPPER LOW...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL
WITH INCREASING TOTAL TOTALS.

A FEW BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ANY BREAKS WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN. TEMPS
NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT
POSSIBLY LOW 60S CT VALLEY IN W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR / MVFR MIXING OUT INTO MIDDAY TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE -RA IS
DOMINANT. N/E EVOLVES TO A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME CLEARING. BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...LIKELY TO SEE IFR RETURN FROM S TO N. E
WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR LOWERING IFR. TRYING NOT TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH N/E
TERMINALS KEEPING LOWEST CONDITIONS S/W WITH CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA THREATS. -RA/-DZ LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME
VISIBILITY ISSUES.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH -DZ/FG GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE HOW THIS EVOLVES BUT THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY MIXING OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LOWERING INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED E
WIND. WILL HOLD MAJORITY -RA JUST TO THE S/W BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME -RA MOVING IN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY MVFR TO LOW END VFR WITH -RA AND ISOLATED
-TSRA THIS EVENING. MAIN THEME FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHOULD LOWER IFR INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY
RI WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS.
LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 061121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY DREARY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ. DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR RAIN BANDS SWEEPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF MAIN VORT MAX / PVA ANOMALY ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DELMARVA. AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER SHOULD SEE A
MAJORITY OF THIS ENERGY IMPACT AREAS S/W OF S NEW ENGLAND BUT
TOWARDS EVENING SOME OF THAT ENERGY WILL PIVOT N INTO OUR AREA.
COMBINATION OF FETCH OFF THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL LIFT WITH THE VORT MAX WILL RESULT IN LIKELY RAINS
MAINLY OUTSIDE OF NE MASS OVER THE REST OF S NEW ENGLAND.

STILL A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S/W PORTIONS OF S
NEW ENGLAND WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. PWATS AOA 1.0 INCH TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...SO GIVEN MODEST FORCING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S /EXCEPT U40S ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST/ EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOW 60S NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR / MVFR MIXING OUT INTO MIDDAY TOWARDS THE S/W WHERE -RA IS
DOMINANT WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RA/+RA AND A LOW RISK OF TSRA.
N/E EVOLVES TO A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME CLEARING. BUT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA...LIKELY TO SEE IFR RETURN FROM S TO N. E WINDS
PREVAILING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR LOWERING IFR. TRYING NOT TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH N/E
TERMINALS KEEPING LOWEST CONDITIONS S/W WITH CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSRA THREATS. -RA/-DZ LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME
VISIBILITY ISSUES.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH -DZ/FG GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE HOW THIS EVOLVES BUT THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...KEEPING AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST REMAINING VFR THROUGH TODAY...LOWERING INTO EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED E WIND. WILL HOLD MAJORITY -RA JUST TO
THE S/W BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME -RA MOVING IN LATE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MAINLY MVFR TO LOW END VFR WITH -RA AND ISOLATED
-TSRA. MAIN THEME FOR MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD LOWER IFR
INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH
SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY
RI WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS.
LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ.
DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS
MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS. SEE- SAW OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE ...

WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN AT 4 AM ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC/LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY OF NY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NJ. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE/PVA ANOMALY PIVOTING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD CT THIS MORNING AND
THEN ACROSS RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS
TRAJECTORY DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN MA MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY INTO RI
AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. PWATS AOA 1.0 INCH TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...SO GIVEN MODEST FORCING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST RISK ACROSS CT AND
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S /EXCEPT U40S ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST/ EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOW 60S NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THRU 12Z ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR PERSISTING
OVER RI AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MA. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

AFTER 12Z ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR WITH IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER RAIN ALONG AND OFF THE NJ COAST
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MA.

TONIGHT ... MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO IFR. UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE TOO.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TO START IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THEN LIFTING OT MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORM TO FORM.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MVFR THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR-
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER RISK ACROSS
CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MVFR AND MAINLY DRY EARLY BUT THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

TODAY ... SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY RI
WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT ... MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SAT ... WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS. LOW
RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

4 AM UPDATE...

VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NJ.
DESPITE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS
OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS
MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS. SEE- SAW OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE ...

WATCHING AN AREA OF RAIN AT 4 AM ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC/LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY OF NY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NJ. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE/PVA ANOMALY PIVOTING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD CT THIS MORNING AND
THEN ACROSS RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS
TRAJECTORY DRY WEATHER MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN MA MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY INTO RI
AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. PWATS AOA 1.0 INCH TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...SO GIVEN MODEST FORCING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST RISK ACROSS CT AND
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER FLOW
REMAINS ONSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S /EXCEPT U40S ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST/ EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOW 60S NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. STILL
A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO RI AND EASTERN MA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS EXIST GIVEN DEEP MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SETTING UP OVER EASTERN PA.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL.

SATURDAY ...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN PA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAY
YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION MID LEVELS
DRY OUT A BIT AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7C/KM. DILEMMA HERE IS ARE MID LEVELS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION?
IF ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP -21C TEMPS AT H5 COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW T-STORMS.
OTHERWISE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER SAT AND POSSIBLY BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS MAY
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE L60S IN THIS REGION...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THRU 12Z ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR PERSISTING
OVER RI AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MA. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

AFTER 12Z ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR WITH IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER RAIN ALONG AND OFF THE NJ COAST
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MA.

TONIGHT ... MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO IFR. UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE TOO.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TO START IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THEN LIFTING OT MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORM TO FORM.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MVFR THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR-
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER RISK ACROSS
CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MVFR AND MAINLY DRY EARLY BUT THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

TODAY ... SCA FOR NNE WINDS BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. RAIN LIKELY RI
WATERS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT ... MODEST EAST WIND BUT NE SWELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SAT ... WINDS BECOMING SSW WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED VSBYS. LOW
RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

4 AM UPDATE...

VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH BOSTON 12.3 FT
AT 1146 PM. MODEST ONSHORE WINDS AND SURFACE PRES ONLY AROUND 1010MB
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE AROUND 0.5 FT. THAT/S SUFFICIENT FOR A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ENTIRE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ENTIRE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THRU 2 AM SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO LONG TERM FORECAST PORTION ONLY...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ALL OF THIS MOVING OUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SWEEPING
COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW WITH BREEZY W/NW
WINDS. SEE-SAW OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY QUICK BOUTS OF WET
WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 AM UPDATE ...

LOW PRES OVER GEORGES BANK EARLIER THIS EVENING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHIELD IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THUS DRYING
TREND HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER WATCHING NEW WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
FORMING OFF MD/DE AND NJ COAST IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION. THIS MOIST AIRSTREAM WILL CIRCULATE NORTHWARD IN
THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN-CENTRAL CT TOWARD SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLACKEN AS PGRAD WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

FRIDAY...

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
 - COOLER AND BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
 - SEE-SAW PATTERN OF WET AND DRY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROAD VIEW TOWARDS
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. N-STREAM PACIFIC / POLAR ENERGY KICKS OUT THE
DYING REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DELMARVA. THE SUBSEQUENT
CONCLUSION OF THE BLOCKY PATTERN ALLOWS WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SHIFT E
AS EVIDENT IN THE SHORT-LIVED NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN /PNA/
PATTERN. HEREAFTER FORECAST SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT OF PNA RETURNING
POSITIVE WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND
NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TRENDS. SO WITH CERTAINTY RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW PACIFIC / W COASTAL N AMERICA YIELDING A FAVORABLE TROUGHING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH PREVALENT RIDGING E. BUT
NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ON DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES.

DOES APPEAR THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES E OF N-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGHING CONSIDERING THE NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND AND AS THE
N ATLANTIC RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. A STRONG -EPO SIGNAL...FAVOR ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAINTAINING TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING E.
TAKING THESE TWO POINTS TOGETHER ALONG WITH N-STREAM INFLUENCES AND
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...BELIEVE EITHER A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OR RIDGING PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS THROUGH WHICH
ANY ENERGY FROM THE N-CENTRAL CONUS SLIPPING E UNDERGOES STRETCHING
AND WEAKENING BUT STILL RESULTS IN POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OUTCOMES.
DO NOT FAVOR THE QUICKNESS OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IN A PATTERN
BREAKDOWN FURTHER OUT IN TIME SHIFTING IT FURTHER E.

SO HIGH CONFIDENCE DREARY DRIZZLY CONDITIONS EMERGE SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF N-STREAM ENERGY AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS WITH STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING OF A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN UP TO H6. DECENT
PRESSURE COUPLING. BREEZY S WINDS BUT STRONGER W/NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLD POOL DROPS S AND DAYTIME CLEARING /
HEATING ALLOWS LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN UP TO H8 ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN
OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. QUIET-DRY OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WRAP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND.

INTO THE WEEK LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH CHALLENGES IN FORECAST MODELS
IN HANDLING THE MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES FROM THE W AND ANY N-
STREAM INFLUENCES. LOOKING AT A SEE-SAW OF WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE FOLLOWED BY WEAK OVER-RUNNING RAINFALL
EVENTS THAT YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OUTCOMES AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING THAT LOOKS OVERALL MARGINAL. NOTHING
APPEARING ROBUST NOR A SOAKER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONABLE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS / PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THRU 12Z ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR PERSISTING
OVER RI AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MA. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

AFTER 12Z ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR WITH IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER RAIN ALONG AND OFF THE NJ COAST
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MA.

TONIGHT ... MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO IFR. UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE TOO.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TO START IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THEN LIFTING OT MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORM TO FORM.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MVFR THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR-
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER RISK ACROSS
CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MVFR AND MAINLY DRY EARLY BUT THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR TO BEGIN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH -RA AHEAD
OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE VFR
WHILE W/NW WINDS IMMEDIATELY GUST AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO EVENING. A LULL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...VFR AND BREEZY W/NW WINDS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CIGS LOWER AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AS -RA MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

5 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AND S FLOW LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN
IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THE RETURN OF S FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

1015 PM UPDATE...

SURGE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT SPOT ON...RUNNING AROUND A FT
OR JUST ABOVE. AT 1006 PM BOSTON WAS AT 12.45 FT WITH A SURGE OF
1.1 FT. EXPECTING BOSTON TO TOP OUT AROUND 13 FT. IN ADDITION WAVE
ACTION RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 11 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE ROADS OF EASTERN
MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LIKELY OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE ...

LOW PRES OVER GEORGES BANK EARLIER THIS EVENING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHIELD IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THUS DRYING
TREND HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER WATCHING NEW WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
FORMING OFF MD/DE AND NJ COAST IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION. THIS MOIST AIRSTREAM WILL CIRCULATE NORTHWARD IN
THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN-CENTRAL CT TOWARD SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLACKEN AS PGRAD WEAKENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THRU 12Z ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR PERSISTING
OVER RI AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MA. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

AFTER 12Z ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR WITH IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER RAIN ALONG AND OFF THE NJ COAST
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MA.

TONIGHT ... MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO IFR. UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE TOO.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TO START IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THEN LIFTING OT MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORM TO FORM.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MVFR THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR-
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER RISK ACROSS
CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MVFR AND MAINLY DRY EARLY BUT THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATE
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.
LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
1015 PM UPDATE...

SURGE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT SPOT ON...RUNNING AROUND A FT
OR JUST ABOVE. AT 1006 PM BOSTON WAS AT 12.45 FT WITH A SURGE OF
1.1 FT. EXPECTING BOSTON TO TOP OUT AROUND 13 FT. IN ADDITION WAVE
ACTION RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 11 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE ROADS OF EASTERN
MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LIKELY OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE ...

LOW PRES OVER GEORGES BANK EARLIER THIS EVENING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHIELD IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THUS DRYING
TREND HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER WATCHING NEW WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
FORMING OFF MD/DE AND NJ COAST IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION. THIS MOIST AIRSTREAM WILL CIRCULATE NORTHWARD IN
THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN-CENTRAL CT TOWARD SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLACKEN AS PGRAD WEAKENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THRU 12Z ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR PERSISTING
OVER RI AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MA. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

AFTER 12Z ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR WITH IFR SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER RAIN ALONG AND OFF THE NJ COAST
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MA.

TONIGHT ... MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MVFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO IFR. UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM
POSSIBLE TOO.

SATURDAY ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR TO START IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THEN LIFTING OT MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
HOWEVER ANY SUNSHINE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
T-STORM TO FORM.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MVFR THIS MORNING MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR-
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER BUT RISK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER RISK ACROSS
CT/RI AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MVFR AND MAINLY DRY EARLY BUT THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATE
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT ... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.
LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
1015 PM UPDATE...

SURGE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT SPOT ON...RUNNING AROUND A FT
OR JUST ABOVE. AT 1006 PM BOSTON WAS AT 12.45 FT WITH A SURGE OF
1.1 FT. EXPECTING BOSTON TO TOP OUT AROUND 13 FT. IN ADDITION WAVE
ACTION RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 11 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE ROADS OF EASTERN
MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 060221
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT LIKELY OCCURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE ...

COASTAL LOW OVER GEORGES BANK AND ITS RAIN SHIELD OVER EASTERN MA CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. THUS A DOWNWARD
TREND IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER NOTING LOWER TOP
RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE WORCESTER HILLS/NORTHERN RI AND HILLY
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST CT. THIS IS PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO UPSLOPE
FLOW FROM NORTHEAST WINDS.

ALSO NOTEWORTHY IS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPER
WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE FROM CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC IS
BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS CT INTO
WESTERN MA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THE ABOVE THINKING.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WINDS UP TO 35 KT AT EWB/36 KT AT MVY/38 KT AT FMH AND 39
KT AT ACK! THESE WINDS ARE PROVIDING WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...BUT GRADUALLY RISE TO UPPER
END IFR AND UPPER END MVFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

1015 PM UPDATE...

SURGE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT SPOT ON...RUNNING AROUND A FT
OR JUST ABOVE. AT 1006 PM BOSTON WAS AT 12.45 FT WITH A SURGE OF
1.1 FT. EXPECTING BOSTON TO TOP OUT AROUND 13 FT. IN ADDITION WAVE
ACTION RUNNING ABOUT 8 TO 11 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF THE TYPICAL SHORELINE ROADS OF EASTERN
MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
NOTING THAT THE SHALLOW DZ FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST WHILE
THE HEAVIER RAIN IS WRAPPING CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF ALL STEADY
RAINFALL THROUGH 04-06Z. AREAS OF DZ LIKELY TO FOLLOW FOR SOME
TIME UNTIL DRIER AIR AND SOME MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAMP/CLOUDY NIGHT. TWEAKED POPS TIMING
SLIGHTLY AND TEMPS TOWARD LATEST MET GUIDANCE WHICH IS HANDLING
TRENDS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...BUT GRADUALLY RISE TO UPPER
END IFR AND UPPER END MVFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
430 PM UPDATE...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
NOTING THAT THE SHALLOW DZ FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST WHILE
THE HEAVIER RAIN IS WRAPPING CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE
SE. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF ALL STEADY
RAINFALL THROUGH 04-06Z. AREAS OF DZ LIKELY TO FOLLOW FOR SOME
TIME UNTIL DRIER AIR AND SOME MIXING BEGINS AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DAMP/CLOUDY NIGHT. TWEAKED POPS TIMING
SLIGHTLY AND TEMPS TOWARD LATEST MET GUIDANCE WHICH IS HANDLING
TRENDS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...BUT GRADUALLY RISE TO UPPER
END IFR AND UPPER END MVFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
430 PM UPDATE...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG
EASTERN HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF MA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE RI/CT BORDER. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT AT SOME RI AND EASTERN MA TERMINALS.

LATER TONIGHT...IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
430 PM UPDATE...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG
EASTERN HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF MA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE RI/CT BORDER. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT AT SOME RI AND EASTERN MA TERMINALS.

LATER TONIGHT...IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
430 PM UPDATE...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WAS
PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF FUNDI BY DAYBREAK. RAIN...LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST
EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING THE I-495 CORRIDOR AND TO NEAR THE RI/CT
BORDER. THEN IT SHOULD HEAD OFF THE COAST AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...
BUT MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 10 PM...SO NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN RI AND EASTERN MA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF DELMARVA BY
DAYBREAK FRI AND WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
DAY. THIS KEEPS OUR REGION IN MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN...BUT MORE
OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION INSTEAD OF NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING 55 TO 60 EXCEPT
COOLER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST OF CAPE ANN. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

WHILE IT COULD SHOWER AT ANY TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CT AND WESTERN MA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO LIKELY WEST OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER IN BOTH MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE GFS TO 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ON
THE ECMWF AND NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C MOVES INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA FRI EVENING. THIS CAUSES A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS INDICES REACHING
50-55...THE SHOWALTER INDEX BETWEEN 0 AND -2...AND EVEN THE LIFTED
INDEX FROM 0 TO -1 IN THOSE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

WE CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRI NIGHT
AGAIN...BUT THE THREAT IS LESS THAN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTINGALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2030Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG
EASTERN HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF MA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE RI/CT BORDER. WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT AT SOME RI AND EASTERN MA TERMINALS.

LATER TONIGHT...IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. RAIN HEADS NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREA OF IFR WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EARLY. THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY IN CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ENE WINDS BECOMING E
OR ESE LATE...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME. IFR AND LOW-END MVFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST AND SHOWERS LIKELY WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. IFR IN
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN RAIN ENDING AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS.
RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON ON FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRI
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

430 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE ENDED ALL GALES BY 09Z LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME...THEY WILL NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

BUZZARDS BAY TOWER HAS INCREASED TO 39 KT GUSTS FROM 36 KT GUSTS
EARLIER AND BOSTON LIGHT WAS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE AT 31 KT.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM OR SO...HENCE THE REASON FOR KEEPING GALE
WARNINGS POSTED EARLY TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TO NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS
INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS TO 20-25 KT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS...MAINLY SWELLS...OF 6 TO 9 FT
CONTINUING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES GREATLY
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
430 PM UPDATE...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOSTON SOUTH TO
NANTUCKET INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND BOTH THE BAY AND OCEAN
SIDES OF CAPE COD. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO
ALSO INCLUDE THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST...BUT REALLY ONLY FOR
SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN. THIS PROVIDES CONTINUITY WITH THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE NH SEACOAST AND APPEARS WARRANTED
GIVEN FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

ASTRO HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 1055 PM. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE NE WINDS INCREASING A TAD THIS
EVENING...NEAR MINIMAL GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS ALONG THE MA E
COAST WITH A REASONABLY SIZABLE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ANTICIPATE THE STORM SURGE TO RUN GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT AT THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. SEAS ACROSS IPSWICH BAY...MASS BAY
AND OPEN AREA OF NORTHERN CAPE COD BAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 8 TO
10 FT. AT 4 PM GULF OF MAINE BUOY REPORTED 10 FOOT SEAS AND THOSE
WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE CLOSER TO CAPE ANN AND INTO AT LEAST
STELLWAGEN BANK AND PORTIONS OF MASS BAY THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 10
TO 12 FT EXPECTED EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E AND NE FACING SHORELINES
FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN...BOSTON TO PLYMOUTH TO
DENNIS...ORLEANS AND CHATHAM...AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. INUNDATION
WILL BE FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGH TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND WAVE
SPLASHOVER. MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NEED GREATER WAVE
ACTION FOR A MORE SERIOUS EROSION CONCERN.

AT LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MA EAST COAST FOR THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO AN
EVEN HIGHER ASTRO TIDE AND A RESIDUAL SURGE. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
AND A LINGERING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A .5 TO 1.0 FOOT SURGE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FIELD/DOODY
MARINE...FIELD/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 052003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW 996 MB WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN EASTERN MA AND RI...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. EXPECTING A SLIGHT WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE RAIN INTO EASTERN RI AND PERHAPS TO AS FAR WEST AS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE HEADING
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH EAST OF A LINE FROM
WILLIMANTIC CT TO BOSTON MA...BUT HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS FOR
TONIGHT AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN SOME BAYS AND HARBORS IN THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURES ON TRACK...HAVE MADE IT TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHERN
CT AND WESTERN MA...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
FINAL BREAKDOWN OF THE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
BEGINS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ARCTIC VORT MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
IS FINALLY ABLE TO SHIFT THE STUBBORN CUTOFF E OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL COME WITH SOME CONSEQUENCE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MODERATION IN TYPES
AND DRYING OF THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAINS. AT ISSUE
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF YET ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPS TO THE N AS THE
NRN STREAM VORT MAX PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE RESULTING CUTOFF COULD END UP ANYWHERE FROM ONTARIO TO S
OF GREENLAND...AND THIS LOCATION WILL ULTIMATELY HELP TO DEFINE
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS BEST HERE...AND
GIVEN WPC/S LEANING ON AN ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WILL BE FOLLOWING
SUIT WITH THIS UPDATE. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE THE RISK FOR
MORE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTLES NEAR NEW ENGLAND S OF THE THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
FILLING OCCLUSION WILL BE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A
DAMP/SHOWERY/DRIZZLE START TO THE DAY...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW PEAKS OF SUN. WITH FLOW SHIFTING S...TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE 50S AND LOW 60S THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LOWS NOW FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SUN...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID
DAY PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WITH A
MODEST ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 SUGGESTS SOME
SHRA COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LLJ. SOME WETTING
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE IN THE 0.25-0.50 RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MON...
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING E
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A DRIER...BUT COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY NW FLOW EXPECTED WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER...THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT DUE TO A
WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER LVL
CUTOFF. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT WITH A DRY COLUMN TO START...TUE WILL
ITSELF BE MAINLY DRY BUT TRANSITIONING BACK TO GRAY/DAMP
CONDITIONS LATE. ECENS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ARE RATHER
LOW...HENCE THE DECISION TO LEAN CLOSER TO A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE.
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

LATE WEEK...
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS PERSISTENTLY GRAY AND DAMP AS THIS
WEEK...A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL WAVES ACTINGALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER. OVERALL..NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK THANKS TO
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1815Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG EASTERN
HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
RAIN MAY SPREAD WEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS E MA AND RI TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 30 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /TUE THROUGH MON/...

SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF MVFR/IFR GIVES WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LATER IN THE DAY
AS RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END.  LOW RISK OF A MID DAY TS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START THE DAY...BUT MIX OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR FOLLOWS
INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NE WINDS WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KT MOST WATERS. RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
     WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS
AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...

WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR SOME INNER BAYS AND HARBORS. OTHERWISE NE LOW-END GALES
CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH TUE/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT AND SUN...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S AND RECEDING...LINGERING
SWELL ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINS NEAR 5-6FT. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST SEAS.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BUT WITH SUSTAINED NW
FLOW SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. QUIETER BOATING
WEATHER CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-250-251-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS PROGESSING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW 996 MB WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN EASTERN MA AND RI...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. EXPECTING A SLIGHT WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE RAIN INTO EASTERN RI AND PERHAPS TO AS FAR WEST AS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE HEADING
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH EAST OF A LINE FROM
WILLIMANTIC CT TO BOSTON MA...BUT HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS FOR
TONIGHT AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN SOME BAYS AND HARBORS IN THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMERATURES ON TRACK...HAVE MADE IT TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHERN CT
AND WESTERN MA...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1815Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG EASTERN
HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
RAIN MAY SPREAD WEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS E MA AND RI TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 30 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NE WINDS WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KT MOST WATERS. RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
...WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS
AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...

WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR SOME INNER BAYS AND HARBORS. OTHERWISE NE LOW-END GALES
CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS PROGESSING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW 996 MB WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN EASTERN MA AND RI...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. EXPECTING A SLIGHT WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE RAIN INTO EASTERN RI AND PERHAPS TO AS FAR WEST AS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN MA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE HEADING
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH EAST OF A LINE FROM
WILLIMANTIC CT TO BOSTON MA...BUT HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS FOR
TONIGHT AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN SOME BAYS AND HARBORS IN THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMERATURES ON TRACK...HAVE MADE IT TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHERN CT
AND WESTERN MA...WITH MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1815Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH. PATCHY FOG EASTERN
HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
RAIN MAY SPREAD WEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS E MA AND RI TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 30 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NE WINDS WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KT MOST WATERS. RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
...WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS
AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...

WE MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR SOME INNER BAYS AND HARBORS. OTHERWISE NE LOW-END GALES
CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY DEEPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
DOWN TO 997 MB AS OF 10 AM...ABOUT 1 MB DEEPER THAN THE MODELS.
WE CONTINUE TO BE SOCKED IN WITH A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD...WHICH
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD EASTERN CAPE COD/EASTERN MARTHAS VINEYARD/
NANTUCKET...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING IT TO GET AS FAR WEST AS I-495 IN MA AND
THE RI/CT/MA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
EASTERN AREAS.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS ALREADY 30-35 KT AT 2000 FT IN RI AND
EASTERN MA. HAVE BEEN GETTING GOOD MIXING AND SURFACE GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KT IN THOSE AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING BY ANOTHER 5 KT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...OR AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN MA AND RI. EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 46 MPH GUSTS.

COASTAL SURGES RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY BUT HAVE TWEAKED VALUES A BIT UPWARD
FOR TONIGHT...SEE COASTAL DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD. STILL
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&7 AM UPDATE...

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1445Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER-END MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AND AT ORH.
PATCHY FOG EASTERN HALF. RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. RAIN MAY SPREAD WEST TO THE I-495 BELT IN
MA AND TO NEAR THE MA/CT/RI BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 JT ACROSS E MA AND RI
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1045 AM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. NE WINDS WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KT WITH A GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SE WATERS
TOWARD EVENING. SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...

NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
932 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...

 * MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
   FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND

*/ DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.

NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...

-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...

NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TONIGHT...

NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
932 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...

 * MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
   FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND

*/ DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.

NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...

-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...

NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TONIGHT...

NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

930 AM UPDATE...

PRIOR FORECAST AND ADVISORY LOCATION LOOKS GOOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
SURGE AND SEAS UP A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE. SURGE IS PRESENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE OVER
A FOOT AT BOSTON...CHATHAM AND NANTUCKET HARBOR OR ABOUT A HALF
FOOT ABOVE BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS GUIDANCE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN A TAD THIS EVENING TO
RESULT IN A MODEST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURGE. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS...SUCH AS SCITUATE AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR...MAY APPROACH THE HIGH END OF MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. HAVE KEPT THE ESSEX COUNTY COASTLINE OUT OF
THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY. AT
LEAST POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI EVENING
DUE TO HIGH ASTRO TIDE AND PROBABLE SLOWNESS FOR THE SURGE TO
EVACUATE...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WARRANTS A DOUBLE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

 * MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
   FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND

*/ DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.

NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...

-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...

NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TONIGHT...

NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 051115
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

 * MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
   FOCUSED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND

*/ DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES
IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S THIS
NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE
WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER.

NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100
MILES WEST WOULD RESULT IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR
RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. 9Z HRRR HAS THE RAIN GETTING AS FAR W
AS THE 495 BELTWAY AND E WORCESTER METRO WHILE ALSO IMPACTING MUCH
OF RI AND SE CT.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER
DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...

-DZ INTO MIDDAY WITH IFR HOLDING E OF ORH TRANSITIONING TO -RA
WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING AND VSBY IMPACTS. WHEREAS W...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING MVFR POSSIBLY LOW END VFR OVER THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION IN VSBY. BREEZY NE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS
TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...

TRENDS OF MVFR W AND IFR-LIFR E CONTINUE. -RA OVER E/SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH 25 TO 35 KT NE WINDS CONTINUES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS CONCLUDING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IF EVER BRIEFLY. MVFR LIKELY. -RA DEVELOPING
LATE ALONG WITH NE WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE TAF. WILL BRING
RAIN IN ON 20Z AND KEEP CONDITIONS LOW PRIOR TOWARDS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...WILL KEEP -RA WEST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER
TODAY POTENTIALLY UP TO LOW END VFR.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...

NE WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. WILL INCREASE TO GALES INTO
BY MIDDAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARNINGS POSTED. RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY ON THE WATERS. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

TONIGHT...

NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY...

LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

THIS MORNING ...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE
MARITIMES IS GENERATING A STIFF AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH OCEAN TEMPS ONLY IN THE M40S
THIS NE WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TODAY TO THE 40S...POSSIBLY
L50S ACROSS CT RVR VLY. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER GIVEN THE NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE. KEEP IN MIND THE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH FOR EARLY MAY IS IN THE 60S.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FL WITH THE NOSE OF A 110KT JET STREAK OFF THE
COAST OF GA/SC. THIS JET IMPULSE INITIATES CYCLOGENESIS EARLY THIS
MORNING OFF THE CAROLINAS. NEW 00Z EC/UKMET/RGEM/ARW AND NMM HAVE
ALL TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED A
NON-NAM SOLUTION HERE. THIS SCENARIO FOCUSES STEADY RAIN /PERHAPS
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR AT TIME/ TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE
TODAY AND EVENING. FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF A STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
RI/CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL JUST DEALS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS A SHIFT OF 50-100 MILES WEST WOULD RESULT
IN STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN TRACKING NEAR RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EASTERN MA AS 925 MB LOW LEVEL
NE JET INCREASES TO 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT ... RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY
FROM CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG FORMING WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY ... OTHER THAN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THE DAY SHOULD START
OFF MAINLY DRY. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODEL GUID SUGGEST THERE COULD
BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET EARLY IN
THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE NJ COAST. THIS ADVECTS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN INTO CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA FRI AFTN. PRECIP MAY NOT REACH EASTERN MA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA AS EAST WINDS
INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT
LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

THRU 12Z ... PERSISTENCE A GOOD SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THIS
REGIME. THUS EXPECT MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY WITH IFR ELSEWHERE.
MAINLY DRY BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 25
KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

AFTER 12Z ... MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO RI AND
CENTRAL MA HOWEVER IFR LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN MA. NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30-35 KT LATE IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN MA. RAIN
REDEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN MA AROUND 21Z AND THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT ... MVFR EXCEPT IFR EASTERN MA IN STEADY RAIN BUT THEN A
DRYING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH IFR CONFINED TO ONLY
SOUTHEAST MA. GUSTY NE WINDS 30-35 KT ACROSS EASTERN MA SLOWLY
EASE LATE.

FRI ... MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
CT. NE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY BUT THEN BEGINNING TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL ... UNCERTAINTY IN TAF CENTERED ON POTENTIAL
STEADY/HEAVY RAIN 21Z TODAY THRU 03Z THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE ANY RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

KBDL TERMINAL ... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE ...

TODAY ... NE WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS GALES HAVE BEEN POSTED. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY
REDUCE VSBY.

TONIGHT ... NE GALES CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE AT TIMES.

FRI ... LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST FROM THE MID ATLC TO NJ. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALONG
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE RI WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
ASTRO TIDE AT BOSTON IS 11.95 FT AT 10:55 PM. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 1
FT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WAVE ACTION ONTOP OF THE SURGE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COASTLINE FROM BOSTON SOUTHWARD THRU PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD BAY
AND NANTUCKET. RISK IS LOWER NORTH OF BOSTON BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * UPDATES TO LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY
RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER MOIST LOW LEVEL NE JET PROVIDING
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. NE WINDS OFF THE
CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS WORCESTER. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

*** UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DREARY WEATHER OF LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY
 - COLD FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
 - QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
 - POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

TACKLING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH WITH A BROADER VIEW...BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WHILE SEEMINGLY TO SUBTLY SHIFT E OVER THE
COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH TROUGHING OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS PREFERRED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF GREENLAND. PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR
FORECAST CONSENSUS OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA PATTERN...WHAT WAS
JUST A DAY OR TWO AGO A FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OBLITERATED INTO RENEWED PERIOD
OF DREARY WET WEATHER.

SO AN INITIAL WET AND DREARY PERIOD BENEATH A DYING LOW OCCLUSION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS ERODING INTO POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN / DRIZZLE AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. TRICKY FORECAST
THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. OVERALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT...PERHAPS THE SALVAGEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE DISMAL WEATHER CONCLUDING SUNDAY AS A
N-STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE BEST AND LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
SEE A QUICK BLAST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY W/NW FLOW.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FROM AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IT
WOULD APPEAR ENERGY OUT OF THE N-CENTRAL CONUS DEAMPLIFIES BENEATH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND FAVORABLE RIDGING. BUT IN
EVALUATING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...VARIANCE IS EVIDENT IN HANDLING
INDIVIDUAL WAVES THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE 05.0Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTING A MORE ROBUST N STREAM WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. LEANING ON
AN ENSEMBLE-WEIGHTED FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A FORECAST OF WAVE
ENERGY SWEEPING ALONG A STALLED W TO E FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
C-CONUS AND STORMS DEVELOPING S OF GREENLAND. NO CERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY / BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE OF NUISANCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TOWARDS MID MAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BREAKS IN-BETWEEN AND SUN-
SHINE...AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO MIX OUT AND H85
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +10C WE COULD SEE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE 60S. AGAIN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT
LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

THRU 12Z ... PERSISTENCE A GOOD SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THIS
REGIME. THUS EXPECT MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY WITH IFR ELSEWHERE.
MAINLY DRY BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 25
KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

AFTER 12Z ... MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO RI AND
CENTRAL MA HOWEVER IFR LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN MA. NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30-35 KT LATE IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN MA. RAIN
REDEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN MA AROUND 21Z AND THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT ... MVFR EXCEPT IFR EASTERN MA IN STEADY RAIN BUT THEN A
DRYING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH IFR CONFINED TO ONLY
SOUTHEAST MA. GUSTY NE WINDS 30-35 KT ACROSS EASTERN MA SLOWLY
EASE LATE.

FRI ... MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
CT. NE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY BUT THEN BEGINNING TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL ... UNCERTAINTY IN TAF CENTERED ON POTENTIAL
STEADY/HEAVY RAIN 21Z TODAY THRU 03Z THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE ANY RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

KBDL TERMINAL ... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS PER
SHRA/DZ/BR INITIALLY...IMPROVING THROUGH SATURDAY. E WINDS VEER S
WHILE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. POSSIBLE LLWS AND LIKELY -RA/RA IMPACTS
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W/NW AND ARE
IMMEDIATELY GUSTY WITH UP TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING VFR WHILE WINDS W/NW WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

ISOLATED T-STORM CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT YIELDING ROUGH
OCEAN WATERS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

========================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER E/NE FLOW WITH POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS E WINDS VEER S ALLOWING WAVE ACTION TO DIMINISH. BUT SHORT
LIVED AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WAVES BUILDING
5 TO 7 FEET...BACKING W/NW WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT DIMINISHING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY THE END OF PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050555
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL BE
MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY
RAINS FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER MOIST LOW LEVEL NE JET PROVIDING
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. NE WINDS OFF THE
CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS WORCESTER. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

*** UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT
LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

THRU 12Z ... PERSISTENCE A GOOD SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THIS
REGIME. THUS EXPECT MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY WITH IFR ELSEWHERE.
MAINLY DRY BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 25
KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

AFTER 12Z ... MVFR ACROSS CT RVR VLY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO RI AND
CENTRAL MA HOWEVER IFR LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN MA. NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30-35 KT LATE IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN MA. RAIN
REDEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN MA AROUND 21Z AND THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT ... MVFR EXCEPT IFR EASTERN MA IN STEADY RAIN BUT THEN A
DRYING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH IFR CONFINED TO ONLY
SOUTHEAST MA. GUSTY NE WINDS 30-35 KT ACROSS EASTERN MA SLOWLY
EASE LATE.

FRI ... MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
CT. NE WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY BUT THEN BEGINNING TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL ... UNCERTAINTY IN TAF CENTERED ON POTENTIAL
STEADY/HEAVY RAIN 21Z TODAY THRU 03Z THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE ANY RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

KBDL TERMINAL ... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

ISOLATED T-STORM CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT YIELDING ROUGH
OCEAN WATERS. EARIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

========================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

*** STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ***

10 PM UPDATE ...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS CORRESPONDS NICELY
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTHEAST CT AND SOUTHERN
RI AT 10 PM. THIS DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND BRING AN END TO THE STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN. HOWEVER A
MODEST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET OF 25-35 KT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COOL/DAMP NIGHT AHEAD IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST
NORTHEAST JET WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER
GIVEN THE GUSTY NE WINDS. NOT VERY MAY-LIKE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

*** UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. RISK OF ELEVATED
T-STORM TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THRU THE
REGION AND WILL BE REPLACED BY LIGHTER SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. WIDESPREAD VFR
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY AND POINTS E...WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GRADUAL REDUCTION TO IFR WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIFR THROUGH ABOUT
04Z. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SAME LINE AND POINTS E WITH
LOWER VSBYS...ENDING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD DZ AND FG...MAINTAINING THE LOW CATEGORIES. BREEZY WITH
NE WINDS 15-25 KT AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

ISOLATED T-STORM CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT YIELDING ROUGH
OCEAN WATERS. EARIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

========================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

*** STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ***

10 PM UPDATE ...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS CORRESPONDS NICELY
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTHEAST CT AND SOUTHERN
RI AT 10 PM. THIS DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND BRING AN END TO THE STEADY AND HEAVIER RAIN. HOWEVER A
MODEST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET OF 25-35 KT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COOL/DAMP NIGHT AHEAD IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST
NORTHEAST JET WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER
GIVEN THE GUSTY NE WINDS. NOT VERY MAY-LIKE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

*** UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. RISK OF ELEVATED
T-STORM TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THRU THE
REGION AND WILL BE REPLACED BY LIGHTER SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. WIDESPREAD VFR
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY AND POINTS E...WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GRADUAL REDUCTION TO IFR WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIFR THROUGH ABOUT
04Z. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SAME LINE AND POINTS E WITH
LOWER VSBYS...ENDING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD DZ AND FG...MAINTAINING THE LOW CATEGORIES. BREEZY WITH
NE WINDS 15-25 KT AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

ISOLATED T-STORM CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT YIELDING ROUGH
OCEAN WATERS. EARIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

========================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 042322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT***

7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES MAINLY SE OF A LINE
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY ALONG A TRACK OF HIGHER PWATS AND MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE. ALREADY SEEING
BREAKS ACROSS NY/NJ WHICH WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE
EVENING...BRINGING THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO AN END BETWEEN
04Z-06Z THIS EVENING. HRRR/WRF POPS WERE USED WITH THIS UPDATE.

OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED TS AND HEAVIER RAIN STILL EXPECTED WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ABLE TO OVERACHIEVE AMONGST THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. WIDESPREAD VFR
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY AND POINTS E...WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GRADUAL REDUCTION TO IFR WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIFR THROUGH ABOUT
04Z. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SAME LINE AND POINTS E WITH
LOWER VSBYS...ENDING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD DZ AND FG...MAINTAINING THE LOW CATEGORIES. BREEZY WITH
NE WINDS 15-25 KT AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 042322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT***

7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES MAINLY SE OF A LINE
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY ALONG A TRACK OF HIGHER PWATS AND MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE. ALREADY SEEING
BREAKS ACROSS NY/NJ WHICH WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE
EVENING...BRINGING THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO AN END BETWEEN
04Z-06Z THIS EVENING. HRRR/WRF POPS WERE USED WITH THIS UPDATE.

OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED TS AND HEAVIER RAIN STILL EXPECTED WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ABLE TO OVERACHIEVE AMONGST THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. WIDESPREAD VFR
FROM HFD-ORH-BVY AND POINTS E...WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GRADUAL REDUCTION TO IFR WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIFR THROUGH ABOUT
04Z. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SAME LINE AND POINTS E WITH
LOWER VSBYS...ENDING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD DZ AND FG...MAINTAINING THE LOW CATEGORIES. BREEZY WITH
NE WINDS 15-25 KT AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 042010 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT***

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS.  A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF THE STEADY/HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRI THROUGH MON/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 042010 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT***

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS
BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY.  THERE ALSO IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
THAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...TAKING THE STRONGER FORCING WITH IT.  HOWEVER...AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
PERSISTING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***UNSEASONABLY COOL/DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DREARY/UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW...SO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THIS REGION!

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING TRACK IN REGARDS
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ECMWF/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST
SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...WHILE THE GFS
IS WEAKER. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THAT TYPE OF NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN AT LEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF-RIDGE-TROF PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH HIGHLY POSITIVE PNA...BUT NEAR NEUTRAL NAO/AO/EPO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN FRI AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN AN
ARCTIC VORTEX FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL ACT AS A KICKER
FORCING THE STAGNANT TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO FINAL SHIFT E.
THIS BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND ALLOWS PHASING WITH THE SRN
STREAM. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NE...BUT NOT AS DEEP AS THE FEATURE THAT INFLUENCED OUR WX
THROUGH THIS WEEK. BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS IT FEATURES THE TWO PRIMARY
PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUN..AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER.

DETAILS...

FRI AND SAT...
THE FINAL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW PRES
WHICH HAS DEFINED OUR WX OF LATE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM S-N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. PWATS ARE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMNS MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST
300MB...THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY A BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
SHRA/DRIZZLE WETTING THE GROUNDS ONCE AGAIN. FINAL TOTALS STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. DRIER...BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON SAT. TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE BETTER SUITED HERE...BUT STILL
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH.

SUN...
ARCTIC VORTEX AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RENEWED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWATS IN THE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
BETWEEN H9 AND H7 WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER SHRA. WHILE
FINAL QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 0.25 INCHES...IT
WILL FALL OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME SUN AFTERNOON. COOLER AND
DRIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MON...
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASED NW FLOW AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS.
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER BY THE TIME OF THIS
FROPA...SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
SPITE OF THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
MAY ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS AS H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE ONLY ABOUT +3C. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

TUE AND WED...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP BUT AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY S OF THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE PATTERN FOR MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE ALSO DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN FOR THE MOST PART...SUGGESTING
THAT HIGH PRES WILL YIELD A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS.  A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF THE STEADY/HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU
INTO EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTERMIXED WITH EVEN A FEW LOW
VFR PERIODS THROUGH THE TWO DAY STRETCH.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH VFR FIRST GIVING AWAY TO BRIEF
MVFR WITH SHRA...THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THE STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 35 KNOTS.  SCA HEADLINES ARE POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. OTHER CONCERNS FOR MARINERS WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRI THROUGH MON/...

GRAY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN. THROUGH THIS PERIOD EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E...THE
N-NE AND THEN FINALLY S BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. HOWEVER...A LINGERING SWELL WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...NEAR 5-6 FT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DUE TO THESE SEAS
RIGHT INTO SUN.

MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH MORE PEAKS OF SUN AND NW FLOW. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...SEAS/WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES.

THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS 12.0 FEET AT
BOSTON AND THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING IS 12.3 FEET.  THE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ASTRO HIGH TIDE...BUT THE LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS A TAD
HIGHER.  ALL IN ALL...POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE AREAS.  A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THESE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADY RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING***

2 PM UPDATE...

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LONG ISLAND.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING CLOSED LOW DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS IN OUR REGION.  THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AIDED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND WITH MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.  HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS.  A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF THE STEADY/HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU INTO EARLY THU EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORRISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADY RAIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING***

2 PM UPDATE...

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LONG ISLAND.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING CLOSED LOW DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS IN OUR REGION.  THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING AIDED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND WITH MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.  HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS.  A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE BULK OF THE STEADY/HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/FOG PATCHES.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NE WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THU INTO EARLY THU EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORRISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT STEADY RAINFALL
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING***

1005 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AT
LATE MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY. CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BACK THE MID
LEVEL FLOW LATER TODAY.  IN ADDITION...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCREASING 925 MB EASTERLY INFLOW. THE
RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON ACROSS THE REGION.  THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND WITH MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.  HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOW CLOUDS AND NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY FOR EARLY MAY STANDARDS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...

LOW-END VFR TO MVFR LOWERING DOWN TO LIFR TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF -RA. NE WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR. -RA THIS EVENING TAPERING OVERNIGHT. MODEST
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOWERING TREND TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.
SCT IFR CIGS MAY FILTER IN AS EARLY AS 15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...CIGS MAY LOWER EARLIER THEN PRESENT TAF SUGGESTS.
CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT SO MUCH ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TODAY ***

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR UPDATES TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH PRESENT TRENDS. BRIEF GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE BEING REPORTED
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BECOME OVERSHADOWED BY CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AS NOTED
IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW
CAPTURING AND BACK-BUILDING THE MOIST TROPICAL-ORIGIN PLUME OFFSHORE.
SUBSEQUENTLY LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOUR /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PM COMMUTE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TN
AND KY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC
STATES. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM THE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE ENE WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CAPTURES A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THAT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...

LOW-END VFR TO MVFR LOWERING DOWN TO LIFR TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF -RA. NE WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR. -RA THIS EVENING TAPERING OVERNIGHT. MODEST
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOWERING TREND TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.
SCT IFR CIGS MAY FILTER IN AS EARLY AS 15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...CIGS MAY LOWER EARLIER THEN PRESENT TAF SUGGESTS.
CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT SO MUCH ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 041057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TODAY ***

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR UPDATES TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH PRESENT TRENDS. BRIEF GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE BEING REPORTED
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BECOME OVERSHADOWED BY CLOUDS AND THE THREAT
OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AS NOTED
IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW
CAPTURING AND BACK-BUILDING THE MOIST TROPICAL-ORIGIN PLUME OFFSHORE.
SUBSEQUENTLY LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOUR /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PM COMMUTE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TN
AND KY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC
STATES. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM THE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE ENE WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CAPTURES A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THAT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

12Z UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...

LOW-END VFR TO MVFR LOWERING DOWN TO LIFR TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF -RA. NE WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR. -RA THIS EVENING TAPERING OVERNIGHT. MODEST
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER E MASS.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOWERING TREND TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.
SCT IFR CIGS MAY FILTER IN AS EARLY AS 15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...CIGS MAY LOWER EARLIER THEN PRESENT TAF SUGGESTS.
CONFIDENT ON THE TREND BUT NOT SO MUCH ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

*** STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TODAY ***

ANOTHER COOL MORNING IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TN
AND KY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC
STATES. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM THE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE ENE WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CAPTURES A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THAT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE ...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

230 AM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

TODAY ...

A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TREND TOWARD
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 21Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT ...

IFR AND LIFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN BECOMING
LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. MODEST NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EASTERN MA.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DRYING
TREND STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.  SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS.  PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

325 AM UPDATE ...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THUS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION IS ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM
SCITUATE...HULL AND IN BOSTON/DORCESTER SUCH AS MORISSEY BLVD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040709
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

*** STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TODAY ***

ANOTHER COOL MORNING IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TN
AND KY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC
STATES. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM THE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE ENE WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CAPTURES A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THAT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...


*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - THRU THE WEEKEND AN UNSETTLED COOL PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
 - TWO BOUTS OF MORE APPRECIABLE WET WEATHER: FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
 - FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ESP OVER N/W MASS
 - MODERATE WARMING DRY TREND THRU NEXT WEEK
 - NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY

*/ OVERVIEW...

COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DREARY AND DRIZZLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST WITH POSSIBLE
FOG RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE...ATYPICAL FOR
EARLY MAY. IN-BETWEEN TWO PERIODS OF MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN UPWARDS
OF A FEW TENTHS FORECAST. THE FIRST AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE BLOCKY
CONUS PATTERN TRAPPING A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW AND COLD POOL AROUND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER FORCING THRU A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAIN THOUGH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CHOKING OFF SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE N-
STREAM KICKER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO A SECOND BOUT
OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY ALONG A SWEEPING COLD FRONT.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DREARY WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT...COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. A MODERATE RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N/W MASS. A COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING ALOFT
YIELDS CONVECTIVELY FORCED SHOWERS MONDAY. THIS ALL BEFORE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY.
ENSEMBLE MEAN H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10C SUGGEST SURFACE HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE
S/W. DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SHOT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

230 AM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

TODAY ...

A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TREND TOWARD
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 21Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT ...

IFR AND LIFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN BECOMING
LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. MODEST NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EASTERN MA.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR TO LIFR MIX WITH LOW CIGS AND -DZ THOUGH SUNDAY. PARENT
VSBY IMPACTS WITH BR AND POSSIBLE FOG. TWO PERIODS OF -RA FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. E/NE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE S SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING
N/W BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DRYING
TREND STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.  SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS.  PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DREARY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN
FRIDAY. WINDS VEER S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR
SUNDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS AROUND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE N/W. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH NIGHTS.
ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SURGE ON TOP
OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAINST
THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR SURGE ALONG
THAT COASTLINE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

*** STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TODAY ***

ANOTHER COOL MORNING IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TN
AND KY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLC
STATES. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS SOME WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 5 PM THE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TN/KY APPROACHES THE AREA AND INDUCES A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE ENE WINDS YIELDING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOL CONDITIONS.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES IT BACKS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CAPTURES A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
JUST OFFSHORE WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIELD
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THAT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT ...

WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY DURING THE EVENING BUT THEN SHOULD TRANSITION
TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER DAMP/RAW NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES AND MAINTAINS COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY ...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT
/WCB/ AND CORRESPONDING DRY SLOT. ALL NON NAM SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WCB REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND ONLY CLIPPING EXTREME EASTERN MA. THUS GREATEST RISK FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
AS NEXT FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE HAS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA
WITH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST USA
SUNDAY...KICKING THE OFFSHORE LOW OUT TO SEA. THE SHORTWAVE FORMS
A NEW CUTOFF LOW THAT MIGRATES FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER THE APPALACHIANS
SHIFT EAST. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND IS SOUTHERLY AND DIFLUENT.
GFS INDICATES ONE DEPARTING JET STREAK IN THIS FLOW AT 12Z
THURSDAY...A SECOND STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH MIDDAY.
ADDITIONAL STREAKS MOVE PAST US DURING FRIDAY AS WELL. MEANWHILE
COLD ADVECTION FROM THE ADVANCING COLD POOL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS...WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN ANY SHOWERS.  EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE/MASS BAY WILL MAINTAIN COOL MOIST AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH DAY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WHILE DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S. WE WILL TREND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDENCE ON FRIDAY MAX TEMPS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL STILL OVERHEAD BUT JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF
FARTHER EAST.  PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS...BUT STILL A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW DIMINISHING...DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REACH A LITTLE MILDER. MIXING DEPTHS SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
MID 60S EACH DAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. SOME SIGNS OF NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING COLD POOL MOISTURE
ALOFT MAY BRING DIURNAL CLOUDS MONDAY...OTHERWISE A FAIR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

230 AM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

TODAY ...

A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TREND TOWARD
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 21Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT ...

IFR AND LIFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN BECOMING
LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. MODEST NE WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EASTERN MA.

THURSDAY ...

GREATEST RISK FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN MA.
OTHERWISE NUISANCE TYPE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE YIELDING LIFR
AND IFR TRENDING TOWARD MFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MIXED IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW UP THROUGH 3000 FEET WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
EAST MASS SHORE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... MIXED MVFR/IFR SATURDAY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY SUNDAY...THEN SCATTERED MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DRYING
TREND STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.  SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS.  PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE ALONG
THE WATERS EAST OF MASS. WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN FROM NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NORTHWEST GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH 25
KNOTS.  SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH
NIGHTS. ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE ON TOP OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTANT NORTHEAST WINDS
AGAINST THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR
SURGE ALONG THAT COASTLINE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 040145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY...DREARY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AS THE EVENING AND
NIGHT PROGRESS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH
PRES OVER THE MARITIMES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VLY. SO THE NET AFFECT IS A DRYING TREND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED.

IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW PTS IN THE U30S
TO M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

*** NEXT BAND OF STEADY RAIN AFFECTS MOST OF THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY EASTERN MA/RI ***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MOIST EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THAT TIME...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 50S.  PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
PASSED THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASE THE FORCING FOR ASCENT.  STEADY
RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  APPEARS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING/LIFT ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI...SO EXPECT THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN THESE LOCATIONS.  THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO A LOW RISK FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MOIST
NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE HAS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA
WITH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST USA
SUNDAY...KICKING THE OFFSHORE LOW OUT TO SEA. THE SHORTWAVE FORMS
A NEW CUTOFF LOW THAT MIGRATES FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER THE APPALACHIANS
SHIFT EAST. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND IS SOUTHERLY AND DIFLUENT.
GFS INDICATES ONE DEPARTING JET STREAK IN THIS FLOW AT 12Z
THURSDAY...A SECOND STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH MIDDAY.
ADDITIONAL STREAKS MOVE PAST US DURING FRIDAY AS WELL. MEANWHILE
COLD ADVECTION FROM THE ADVANCING COLD POOL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS...WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN ANY SHOWERS.  EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE/MASS BAY WILL MAINTAIN COOL MOIST AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH DAY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WHILE DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S. WE WILL TREND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDENCE ON FRIDAY MAX TEMPS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL STILL OVERHEAD BUT JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF
FARTHER EAST.  PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS...BUT STILL A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW DIMINISHING...DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REACH A LITTLE MILDER. MIXING DEPTHS SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
MID 60S EACH DAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. SOME SIGNS OF NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING COLD POOL MOISTURE
ALOFT MAY BRING DIURNAL CLOUDS MONDAY...OTHERWISE A FAIR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. DRYING TREND
OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY
DOMINATE WITH LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
MA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY TRIES
TO WORK INTO THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS
PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT SOME MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR.  MEANWHILE...IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS GIVEN NORTHEAST FLOW.  A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STEADY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING DIMINISHES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MIXED IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW UP THROUGH 3000 FEET WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE
EAST MASS SHORE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... MIXED MVFR/IFR SATURDAY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY SUNDAY...THEN SCATTERED MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

945 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DRYING
TREND STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.  SO WHILE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WILL STILL NEED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SOME 5 FOOT
SEAS.  PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR WATERS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET.  ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT SINCE ITS 3RD PERIOD WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT SHIFT
GETS A LOOK AT IT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE ALONG
THE WATERS EAST OF MASS. WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN FROM NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NORTHWEST GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH 25
KNOTS.  SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED...WITH PRIME CONCERN ON THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ASTRO HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED JUST BELOW 12 FEET AT BOSTON BOTH
NIGHTS. ASTRO HEIGHTS NEAR PROVIDENCE ARE PROJECTED AT 6 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 6.5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE ON TOP OF THOSE ASTRO HEIGHTS TO CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER OR EVEN
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. PERSISTANT NORTHEAST WINDS
AGAINST THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL ADD TO POTENTIAL FOR
SURGE ALONG THAT COASTLINE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





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