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000
FXUS61 KBOX 240212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STORMS HAS BECOME COLD-POOL DOMINANT MEANING THAT THEY ARE
COLLAPSING AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW IS ERODING THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
SUCH THAT THE STORMS THEMSELVES HAVE NOTHING TO FEED ON. THE TREND
OF STORM COLLAPSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY WITH THE MID-LEVELS WHERE BROAD-
SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS OF DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DISCERNED FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS WILL
POSE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNPOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT
OVERALL FEEL THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS BEHIND US AND AM
EXPECTING WEATHER TO CONTINUALLY TAPER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

HAVE REMOVED GUSTY WINDS FROM THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH
DIMINISHING TRENDS. FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

2Z UPDATE...

TRENDS DIMINISHING. TAFS MODIFIED TO REMOVE TSRA THREAT. WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT. MAIN CONCERN IS
WITH POCKETS OF +RA AND THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED.
WILL REMOVE FROM THE TAF. WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N OUT OF 3Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT. DIMINISHING
TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STORMS HAS BECOME COLD-POOL DOMINANT MEANING THAT THEY ARE
COLLAPSING AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW IS ERODING THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
SUCH THAT THE STORMS THEMSELVES HAVE NOTHING TO FEED ON. THE TREND
OF STORM COLLAPSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY WITH THE MID-LEVELS WHERE BROAD-
SCALE LIFT IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS OF DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DISCERNED FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS WILL
POSE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNPOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT
OVERALL FEEL THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS BEHIND US AND AM
EXPECTING WEATHER TO CONTINUALLY TAPER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

HAVE REMOVED GUSTY WINDS FROM THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH
DIMINISHING TRENDS. FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

2Z UPDATE...

TRENDS DIMINISHING. TAFS MODIFIED TO REMOVE TSRA THREAT. WINDS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT. MAIN CONCERN IS
WITH POCKETS OF +RA AND THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED.
WILL REMOVE FROM THE TAF. WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N OUT OF 3Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT. DIMINISHING
TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
747 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #432 CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
  EVENING FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE *

* LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
  NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING. *

* SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LINE
  SWEEPS SOUTHEAST *

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH E/SE
WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN / DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE RISK OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING.

PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG W/N A
REGION OF NEARLY 2+ INCH PWATS PREVAILS. YET THE LINE ENCROACHES
ON A REGION OF VERY WEAK / NEGLIGBLE SHEAR. EXPECTING THE LINE TO
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E/SE INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING
DIFFUSE WITH JUST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
A CONSEQUENCE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME HEATING.

HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS. KEPT CLOSE TO
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE BY INCORPORATING THE RAP/HRRR INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH GAVE A GOOD BLEND OF EXPECTED WEATHER.
SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN OVER
AREAS INCORPORATED IN THE WATCH. UPON CONCLUSION OF THE WATCH...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN / GUSTY WIND WORDING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.

LINE WILL MARCH INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND W/N THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...REACHING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE THE LINE SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TO THE S/SE...
SO IMPACTS FROM PROVIDENCE TO THE SE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THEN ON INTO MORNING BEFORE CONCLUDING ROUGHLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LINE OF TSRA/+RA SWEEPING S/SE. STRONGEST MAINLY W OF LWM-BED-IJD.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS WITH PASSAGE ALONG WITH NW GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS. STRONGER TO DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR W AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS. LINE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER S/SE WITH TIME. TAFS
TRENDED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THOSE TAFS E OF MHT-ORH-IJD...WILL HOLD
OFF ON TSRA MENTION TILL ACTIVITY GETS REASONABLY CLOSER.

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD W/ VCTS AT 2Z. HOLD OFF
ON TSRA MENTION UNTIL ACTIVITY CLOSES IN. TREND IS FOR TSRA TO
WEAKEN BELOW THE POINT OF CONSIDERATION PRIOR TO THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA ON THE DOOR STEP SHOULD GET
IN SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. PREVAILED ACCORDINGLY. W/N 0-1Z...STRONG LINE
OF STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
747 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #432 CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
  EVENING FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE *

* LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
  NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING. *

* SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LINE
  SWEEPS SOUTHEAST *

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH E/SE
WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN / DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE RISK OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING.

PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG W/N A
REGION OF NEARLY 2+ INCH PWATS PREVAILS. YET THE LINE ENCROACHES
ON A REGION OF VERY WEAK / NEGLIGBLE SHEAR. EXPECTING THE LINE TO
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E/SE INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING
DIFFUSE WITH JUST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
A CONSEQUENCE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME HEATING.

HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS. KEPT CLOSE TO
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE BY INCORPORATING THE RAP/HRRR INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH GAVE A GOOD BLEND OF EXPECTED WEATHER.
SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN OVER
AREAS INCORPORATED IN THE WATCH. UPON CONCLUSION OF THE WATCH...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN / GUSTY WIND WORDING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.

LINE WILL MARCH INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND W/N THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...REACHING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE THE LINE SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TO THE S/SE...
SO IMPACTS FROM PROVIDENCE TO THE SE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THEN ON INTO MORNING BEFORE CONCLUDING ROUGHLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LINE OF TSRA/+RA SWEEPING S/SE. STRONGEST MAINLY W OF LWM-BED-IJD.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS WITH PASSAGE ALONG WITH NW GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS. STRONGER TO DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR W AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS. LINE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER S/SE WITH TIME. TAFS
TRENDED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THOSE TAFS E OF MHT-ORH-IJD...WILL HOLD
OFF ON TSRA MENTION TILL ACTIVITY GETS REASONABLY CLOSER.

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD W/ VCTS AT 2Z. HOLD OFF
ON TSRA MENTION UNTIL ACTIVITY CLOSES IN. TREND IS FOR TSRA TO
WEAKEN BELOW THE POINT OF CONSIDERATION PRIOR TO THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA ON THE DOOR STEP SHOULD GET
IN SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. PREVAILED ACCORDINGLY. W/N 0-1Z...STRONG LINE
OF STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH SYRACUSE NY AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP-UP AT FIRST BUT THEN A
MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAP 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AS WELL...WITH
ONLY 10-15 KTS. AS OF 18Z...THE STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED UP NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX.
HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR
FOR US RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SHEAR...WHICH
IS NOT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT JUST A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
MOVED CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE ONE
THING TO BE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE NOT BEING WORKED OVER AND THE WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE
BOILING OVER THE REGION TODAY BELIEVE ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION THEY WILL EAT UP ANY INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP INTO
STRONG STORMS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.
MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF AFT 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH SYRACUSE NY AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP-UP AT FIRST BUT THEN A
MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAP 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AS WELL...WITH
ONLY 10-15 KTS. AS OF 18Z...THE STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED UP NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX.
HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR
FOR US RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SHEAR...WHICH
IS NOT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT JUST A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
MOVED CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE ONE
THING TO BE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE NOT BEING WORKED OVER AND THE WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE
BOILING OVER THE REGION TODAY BELIEVE ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION THEY WILL EAT UP ANY INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP INTO
STRONG STORMS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.
MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF AFT 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1058 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

OVERALL TREND FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED BACK ACROSS BUFFALO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS
THE SYRACUSE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THUS DELAYING STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MIXING IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH HYA GUSTING TO
28KTS AND BID AT 23KTS. EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY REACHING 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR US TO MIX WELL UP
TO 800 MB. THIS HELP TEMPS WARM UP TO OR ABOVE 90F SO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR A PATCH OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCU MOVING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. 7 AM OBSERVATION FROM S CENTRAL CT SHOWS 9000
FEET...SO CLOUDS MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HIDE THE SUN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES IT EAST OF CAPE COD BY
MIDDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR A PATCH OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCU MOVING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. 7 AM OBSERVATION FROM S CENTRAL CT SHOWS 9000
FEET...SO CLOUDS MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HIDE THE SUN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES IT EAST OF CAPE COD BY
MIDDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...GENERALLY VFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...GENERALLY VFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND 11K FT AT THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST. AT THE
VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WORCESTER.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET APPROACHES THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALISBURY MA TO BVY TO BED TO
IJD TO HFD TO BRISTOL CT. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY 4
PM TO 11 PM...EARLIER IN THE WEST AND LATER IN THE EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN
A WEAKENED STATE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES IN A PLUME AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE
SLOWING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME
CONNECTION AND SO THINK IT MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE TO PUT A LARGE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF CHANGES
NEEDED. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ELIMINATE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT
NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG AND MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO WITNESS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.


7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT INTO WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AS OF 02Z. ANTICIPATE
PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND FOG MAY AGAIN APPEAR OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP VSBYS
FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY IFR
CIGS FROM STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF CHANGES
NEEDED. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ELIMINATE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT
NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG AND MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO WITNESS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.


7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT INTO WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AS OF 02Z. ANTICIPATE
PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND FOG MAY AGAIN APPEAR OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP VSBYS
FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY IFR
CIGS FROM STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINESS FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATING OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINESS FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATING OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221424
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING AND
FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE BIGGEST CHANGE IS TO ADD IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SEABREEZE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTICED A FEW MESONET SITES
ARE ALREADY SWITCHING MORE IN A EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. THIS MAY DROP
BOSTONS TEMPS A TAD BUT THIS SEABREEZE SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221424
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING AND
FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE BIGGEST CHANGE IS TO ADD IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SEABREEZE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTICED A FEW MESONET SITES
ARE ALREADY SWITCHING MORE IN A EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. THIS MAY DROP
BOSTONS TEMPS A TAD BUT THIS SEABREEZE SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO SOME
PATCHY FOG IN PLACES SUCH AS NORWOOD AND WESTFIELD. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF SHORTLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER TIMING. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LOWER BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO
EXPECTED VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO SOME
PATCHY FOG IN PLACES SUCH AS NORWOOD AND WESTFIELD. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF SHORTLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER TIMING. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LOWER BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO
EXPECTED VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL...PRIOR FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. GREATEST NEAR
TERM ISSUE IS HANDLING OF STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH HAS ADVECTED
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS
MASS BAY AS WELL. THINKING THAT THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE FOG AND STRATUS TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE W AND NW AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE MA IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND
TO SHIFT TO A SW DIRECTION MAY HELP ADVECT THE FOG OFFSHORE ALONG
THE MA E COAST BUT BRING THE STRATUS/FOG ONTO THE THE BUZZARDS BAY
AND RI S COAST. MEANWHILE...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TO LIMIT FOG ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHAT BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW. ONLY VERY
MINOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINT NECESSAY.


7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO
GRADUAL VEERING OF WIND FROM E TO SE AND ULTIMATELY S...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT LOW. FOG/STRATUS HAD MOVED ONTO OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET BY 02Z. E TO SE WIND USUALLY DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR MA E COAST INCLUDING BOS...BUT SHIFT TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS ALONG MA E COAST BUT CAUSE
SOME DETERIORATION ALONG BOTH MA AND RI S COAST. MORE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HAVE PLACED SEVERAL HOURS OF SOME
STRATUS AND FOG INTO TAF DUE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH
A LIGHT E TO SE WIND AT NIGHT. THINK CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BY 09Z
AND A VERY LIGHT SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL...PRIOR FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. GREATEST NEAR
TERM ISSUE IS HANDLING OF STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH HAS ADVECTED
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS
MASS BAY AS WELL. THINKING THAT THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE FOG AND STRATUS TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE W AND NW AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE MA IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND
TO SHIFT TO A SW DIRECTION MAY HELP ADVECT THE FOG OFFSHORE ALONG
THE MA E COAST BUT BRING THE STRATUS/FOG ONTO THE THE BUZZARDS BAY
AND RI S COAST. MEANWHILE...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TO LIMIT FOG ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHAT BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW. ONLY VERY
MINOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINT NECESSAY.


7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO
GRADUAL VEERING OF WIND FROM E TO SE AND ULTIMATELY S...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT LOW. FOG/STRATUS HAD MOVED ONTO OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET BY 02Z. E TO SE WIND USUALLY DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR MA E COAST INCLUDING BOS...BUT SHIFT TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS ALONG MA E COAST BUT CAUSE
SOME DETERIORATION ALONG BOTH MA AND RI S COAST. MORE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HAVE PLACED SEVERAL HOURS OF SOME
STRATUS AND FOG INTO TAF DUE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH
A LIGHT E TO SE WIND AT NIGHT. THINK CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BY 09Z
AND A VERY LIGHT SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN A NUISANCE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS AS WINDS VEER E/SE BEFORE BECOMING SW.
HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS ACK...LESSER IMPACTS ELSEWHERE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING SIMILAR SOCKED IN
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE OVER N/W INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
FOG BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS...BUT SOME CONCERN AS TO
WHETHER TRENDS THE PREVIOUS EVENING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN A NUISANCE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS AS WINDS VEER E/SE BEFORE BECOMING SW.
HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS ACK...LESSER IMPACTS ELSEWHERE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING SIMILAR SOCKED IN
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE OVER N/W INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
FOG BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS...BUT SOME CONCERN AS TO
WHETHER TRENDS THE PREVIOUS EVENING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CT VALLEY BUT
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG
BANK THAT IS SET UP OFF THE COAST OF PLYMOUTH AND ESSEX COUNTY.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS BELIEVE THIS BANK WILL ROLL
INTO BOSTON HARBOR WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THE FOG BANK IS SHALLOW IN NATURE SO THE CITY
COULD REMAIN SUNNY BUT HARBOR FOGGED IN FOR A FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE WEST WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60F OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-60S FOR THE METRO REGIONS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. VFR FOR MOST REGION AS DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET. PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A MIX OF FOG/DZ.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL PRONE REGION OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A MIX
OF FOG/DZ.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL THAT HAD MVFR/IFR. A SPOT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG BANK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CT VALLEY BUT
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG
BANK THAT IS SET UP OFF THE COAST OF PLYMOUTH AND ESSEX COUNTY.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS BELIEVE THIS BANK WILL ROLL
INTO BOSTON HARBOR WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THE FOG BANK IS SHALLOW IN NATURE SO THE CITY
COULD REMAIN SUNNY BUT HARBOR FOGGED IN FOR A FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE WEST WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR 60F OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-60S FOR THE METRO REGIONS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. VFR FOR MOST REGION AS DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET. PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN A MIX OF FOG/DZ.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL PRONE REGION OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A MIX
OF FOG/DZ.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL THAT HAD MVFR/IFR. A SPOT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG BANK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
200 PM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE FINALLY ENDED
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE ARE SLOWLY ERODING. DIURNAL CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE
A SPOT SHOWER BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING WIDE SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ACROSS THE CAPE. VFR FOR MOST REGION AS DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET. PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN A MIX OF FOG/DZ.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL PRONE REGION OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN A MIX OF
FOG/DZ.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL THAT HAD MVFR/IFR. A SPOT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
200 PM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE FINALLY ENDED
AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE ARE SLOWLY ERODING. DIURNAL CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE
A SPOT SHOWER BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING WIDE SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ACROSS THE CAPE. VFR FOR MOST REGION AS DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET. PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN A MIX OF FOG/DZ.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR...PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL PRONE REGION OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR
AND EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN A MIX OF
FOG/DZ.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL THAT HAD MVFR/IFR. A SPOT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211410
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL SHOWING UP OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAPE AS WELL ON THE ISLANDS SO HAVE LINGERED THE CHANCE OF
POP A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 18Z. A GOOD AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG IS STILL TRAPPED ACROSS BUZZARD BAY AND THE
CAPE AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RIGHT NOW
VSBYS ARE IMPROVING WITH SITES BETWEEN 6-10SM. BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WILL THE FOG FILTER BACK IN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A KUUU-KPYM
LINE THROUGH TODAY. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211410
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1010 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL SHOWING UP OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAPE AS WELL ON THE ISLANDS SO HAVE LINGERED THE CHANCE OF
POP A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 18Z. A GOOD AMOUNT
OF STRATUS AND FOG IS STILL TRAPPED ACROSS BUZZARD BAY AND THE
CAPE AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RIGHT NOW
VSBYS ARE IMPROVING WITH SITES BETWEEN 6-10SM. BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WILL THE FOG FILTER BACK IN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A KUUU-KPYM
LINE THROUGH TODAY. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...

STRATUS AND FOG SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MA. LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 06Z GFS AND NAM...ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DO THINK
THE CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A KUUU-KPYM
LINE THROUGH TODAY. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...

STRATUS AND FOG SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MA. LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 06Z GFS AND NAM...ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DO THINK
THE CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A KUUU-KPYM
LINE THROUGH TODAY. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED INTO
THU. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OTHER IS AN ACTIVE AND
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MID WEEK. THEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVIATE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN
OFFSHORE COLD FRONT...THE GFS-LED CAMP DOES SO MUCH CLOSER TO EAST
COAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT. AS
SUCH...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE OF THIS
COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAILY DETAILS....

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ONLY 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR. BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY...MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM
AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THU PER GFS...SO A RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED...BUT
INSTABILITY IS LESS. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDING DRIER LATE THU FROM
WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SSW RESULTING IN A TREND
OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...
YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A UUU-PYM LINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SAVE FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND
SEAS. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. WINDS NEAR THE SE
COAST OF MA MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS A WEAK HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210737
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. BY LATE WED INTO THU THERE IS THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE AND ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHER TIER
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER WED INTO
THU...FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM RELOADS WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS AND OH VLYS
SUNDAY. AS FOR MODEL DETAILS...MAIN DILEMMA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BECOMES THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WERE ON THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT NOW THE
12Z GEFS HAVE SPED UP WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLES
WERE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND NOW THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUID AS IT FORMS A FRONTAL WAVE WITH FROPA
LATE THU. GIVEN TIME SCALE IS STILL 96+ HRS AWAY A MODEL BLEND IS
LIKELY THE BEST APPROACH.

DAILY DETAILS....

TUESDAY...BECOMING WARMER AS MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVES OFFSHORE AND
IS REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. DESPITE LIGHT MODEL QPF THIS
RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAP TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/T-
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUE MORNING SO MODEL QPF COULD BE MORE MORNING DRIZZLE THAN DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F...ESPECIALLY THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY. COOLEST SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW SURFACE WINDS OFF
THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH LATEST BUOYS AND TIDE
GAGES REPORTS INDICATE SOUTH COASTAL WATER TEMPS NOW INTO THE U60S
TO AROUND 70!

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR T-STORMS TO FIRE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE GFS AND GEFS NOT OFFERING
MUCH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WED ITS GENERATING 60-70% PROBS OF 1200
J/KG OF CAPE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW
RISK FOR STORMS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOWERING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY 25-30 KT...MUCH LESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR.  BEFORE
THE STORMS DEVELOP A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT
90F. HOWEVER THE PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTN AS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS THERE SHOULD BE A STIFF SSW
WIND WHICH WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT. IN FACT GFS
BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25-30 MPH
OVER RI AND EASTERN MA!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM AS
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART THU PER
GFS SO A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA.
SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
NEVERTHELESS TRENDING DRIER LATER THU FROM WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH WITH SURFACE LOW PRES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SSW RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE HUMID TREND. BY SUNDAY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS
CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A UUU-PYM LINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SAVE FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER EACH NIGHT THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND SEAS. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE TUE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS PARTICULARLY
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 210737
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.
THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. BY LATE WED INTO THU THERE IS THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL E OF ACK AND CAPE COD THIS
MORNING. BUT AS IT DOES SO...WEAK DEFORMATION ON ITS NW QUAD IS
WORKING ON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 300HPA TO BRING
PERIODIC -SHRA AND DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA. IT IS
NOT UNTIL ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRES MOVES
FURTHER E BY ABOUT MID MORNING THAT THESE WILL FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE
AND WITHER. THEREFORE...HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM NOW
ON...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE
MORNING...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THANKS TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
FLOW.

AFTER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS END...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ALL OF THE CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE E COAST TO BREAK UP AS THE
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY NE AND E FLOW IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES CONNECTED TO THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
GRADUAL ALLOW FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW A LATE DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD. HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL STAY
RELATIVELY LOW AS MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP DWPTS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. SAVE FOR SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION TO THE W...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SHIFT E IN THE HIGH PRES MAY
LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING DWPTS OVERNIGHT SO SUSPECT MINS TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN DWPTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE LOCAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.

TUE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION...BUT REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN FLOW IN PLACE EXPECT INCREASING DWPTS AND
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE DAY. THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE
AFTERNOON THREAT FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT
1000-1300J/KG OF SKINNY SB CAPE ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL NY
INTO NW MA AND SRN NH. HOWEVER...WE ARE MISSING A DECENT TRIGGER
/JET ENERGY AND PRE FRONTAL TROF REMAIN TO THE W/. WE ARE ALSO
MISSING SHEAR...WHICH IS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS BETWEEN BOTH 0-3
AND 0-6KM LAYERS. THEREFORE...SHOULD ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER WITHOUT THE ABILITY
TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
PEAK HEATING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE W.

OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS /H85 TEMPS APPROACH
+18C/ EXPECT INCREASING SFC TEMPS...WITH SOME LOCALES SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S SUGGESTS THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE AND ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHER TIER
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER WED INTO
THU...FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM RELOADS WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS AND OH VLYS
SUNDAY. AS FOR MODEL DETAILS...MAIN DILEMMA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BECOMES THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WERE ON THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT NOW THE
12Z GEFS HAVE SPED UP WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLES
WERE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND NOW THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUID AS IT FORMS A FRONTAL WAVE WITH FROPA
LATE THU. GIVEN TIME SCALE IS STILL 96+ HRS AWAY A MODEL BLEND IS
LIKELY THE BEST APPROACH.

DAILY DETAILS....

TUESDAY...BECOMING WARMER AS MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVES OFFSHORE AND
IS REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. DESPITE LIGHT MODEL QPF THIS
RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAP TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/T-
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUE MORNING SO MODEL QPF COULD BE MORE MORNING DRIZZLE THAN DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F...ESPECIALLY THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY. COOLEST SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW SURFACE WINDS OFF
THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH LATEST BUOYS AND TIDE
GAGES REPORTS INDICATE SOUTH COASTAL WATER TEMPS NOW INTO THE U60S
TO AROUND 70!

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR T-STORMS TO FIRE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE GFS AND GEFS NOT OFFERING
MUCH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WED ITS GENERATING 60-70% PROBS OF 1200
J/KG OF CAPE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW
RISK FOR STORMS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOWERING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY 25-30 KT...MUCH LESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR.  BEFORE
THE STORMS DEVELOP A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT
90F. HOWEVER THE PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTN AS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS THERE SHOULD BE A STIFF SSW
WIND WHICH WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT. IN FACT GFS
BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25-30 MPH
OVER RI AND EASTERN MA!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM AS
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART THU PER
GFS SO A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA.
SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
NEVERTHELESS TRENDING DRIER LATER THU FROM WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH WITH SURFACE LOW PRES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SSW RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE HUMID TREND. BY SUNDAY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS
CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A UUU-PYM LINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SAVE FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER EACH NIGHT THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MAY SEE AN A NARROW THREAT FOR 5 FT SEAS
UNDER A SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL ACROSS THE EXTREME SE WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY A LOW PROBABILITY.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE
OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND SEAS. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE TUE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS PARTICULARLY
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD THIS EVENING TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS AN
OFFSHORE LOW EXITS SEAWARD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PROVIDES DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER MONDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TUE RESULTING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TUE AND WED. BY LATE WED INTO THU THERE IS THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM
CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
TEMPS/DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE NW THANKS TO DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MEANWHILE IN SE MA/E RI THE RAIN/DZ IS
HOLDING FAST AND LOOKS TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40N/70W LIFTS E TOWARDS THE N-ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. SHOULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN
THE REAR OF THE INITIAL WAVE THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING REGIME
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE NVA PREVAILS AN ENVIRONMENT OF SINKING AIR.
SO WILL DROP RAIN CHANCES SW-NE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. PLETHORA OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WANTS TO LINGER RAIN...BUT AM
NOT BUYING IT.

CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE W TO E AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. THOUGH MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SUCH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE
WITHIN THE E GREAT LAKES OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. THUS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MILD NIGHT BENEATH A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S WITH THE
WARMEST SPOTS IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COASTS.

ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND RELAXES ALLOWING NE-WINDS TO
DIMINISH...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 15 MPH GUSTS OVER THE E-SHORE OF MA
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PATCHY FOG FOR INTERIOR SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES SUCH AS WITHIN THE
N-CT RIVER VALLEY...IN AND AROUND KEENE NH FOR EXAMPLE. MAY ALSO
HAVE A FEW HAZY PATCHES HERE IN THERE IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
AREAS SUCH AS NE-CT AND CENTRAL SE MA AROUND TAUNTON...THOUGH NOT AS
HIGH OF CONFIDENCE SAY AS PLACES AROUND THE N-CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE W RESULTS IN AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE REFLECTION OF BROADSCALE LOW PRESSURE. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO STRETCH ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO PA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET OVER NEW ENGLAND. PLAUSIBLE
THAT THE W/SW COMPONENT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC N/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPINGING ON THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN COULD YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR W NEW ENGLAND. WILL NOTE
THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

RENEWED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE WINDS RESULTING IN AN ONSHORE E-
FLOW. BENEATH A WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
W/SW FLOW...HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S...THE WARMEST
OF CONDITIONS OF WHICH OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR...COOLEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE E-SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF COOLER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W
SHOULD END. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A QUIET NIGHT.

SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ADVECTING E WILL
RESULT IN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS PERHAPS WILL YIELD A
BLANKET OF INSOLATION RESULTING IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR W NEW ENGLAND...THUS MAY KEEP THOSE AREAS MILDER AROUND
THE MID-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S ELSEWHERE.

DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. FOG PERHAPS OF SOME CONCERN ALONG THE S-COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS...AS WELL AS OVER THE N-CT RIVER VALLEY...OTHERWISE
STICKY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE AND ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHER TIER
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER WED INTO
THU...FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM RELOADS WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS AND OH VLYS
SUNDAY. AS FOR MODEL DETAILS...MAIN DILEMMA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BECOMES THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WERE ON THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT NOW THE
12Z GEFS HAVE SPED UP WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLES
WERE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND NOW THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUID AS IT FORMS A FRONTAL WAVE WITH FROPA
LATE THU. GIVEN TIME SCALE IS STILL 96+ HRS AWAY A MODEL BLEND IS
LIKELY THE BEST APPROACH.

DAILY DETAILS....

TUESDAY...BECOMING WARMER AS MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVES OFFSHORE AND
IS REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. DESPITE LIGHT MODEL QPF THIS
RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAP TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/T-
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUE MORNING SO MODEL QPF COULD BE MORE MORNING DRIZZLE THAN DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F...ESPECIALLY THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY. COOLEST SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW SURFACE WINDS OFF
THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH LATEST BUOYS AND TIDE
GAGES REPORTS INDICATE SOUTH COASTAL WATER TEMPS NOW INTO THE U60S
TO AROUND 70!

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR T-STORMS TO FIRE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE GFS AND GEFS NOT OFFERING
MUCH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WED ITS GENERATING 60-70% PROBS OF 1200
J/KG OF CAPE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW
RISK FOR STORMS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOWERING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY 25-30 KT...MUCH LESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR.  BEFORE
THE STORMS DEVELOP A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT
90F. HOWEVER THE PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTN AS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS THERE SHOULD BE A STIFF SSW
WIND WHICH WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT. IN FACT GFS
BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25-30 MPH
OVER RI AND EASTERN MA!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM AS
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART THU PER
GFS SO A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA.
SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
NEVERTHELESS TRENDING DRIER LATER THU FROM WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH WITH SURFACE LOW PRES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SSW RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE HUMID TREND. BY SUNDAY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS
CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A UUU-PYM LINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SAVE FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER EACH NIGHT THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE NE WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FEET AS A RESULT OF THE STRESS. BUOY 44017 S OF RI/BI SOUND
CONTINUES TO OBSERVE WAVES UP TO 4.6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING ALLOWING WINDS
TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.

WHILE MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. PRESENTLY HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND SEAS. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE TUE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS PARTICULARLY
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 210545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD THIS EVENING TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS AN
OFFSHORE LOW EXITS SEAWARD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PROVIDES DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER MONDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TUE RESULTING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TUE AND WED. BY LATE WED INTO THU THERE IS THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE TREND IS FOR DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM
CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FOR THE MOST PART...FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
TEMPS/DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE NW THANKS TO DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MEANWHILE IN SE MA/E RI THE RAIN/DZ IS
HOLDING FAST AND LOOKS TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40N/70W LIFTS E TOWARDS THE N-ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. SHOULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN
THE REAR OF THE INITIAL WAVE THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING REGIME
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE NVA PREVAILS AN ENVIRONMENT OF SINKING AIR.
SO WILL DROP RAIN CHANCES SW-NE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. PLETHORA OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WANTS TO LINGER RAIN...BUT AM
NOT BUYING IT.

CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE W TO E AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS. THOUGH MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. SUCH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE
WITHIN THE E GREAT LAKES OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF
THE REGION. THUS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MILD NIGHT BENEATH A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. LOWS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S WITH THE
WARMEST SPOTS IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COASTS.

ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND RELAXES ALLOWING NE-WINDS TO
DIMINISH...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 15 MPH GUSTS OVER THE E-SHORE OF MA
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PATCHY FOG FOR INTERIOR SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES SUCH AS WITHIN THE
N-CT RIVER VALLEY...IN AND AROUND KEENE NH FOR EXAMPLE. MAY ALSO
HAVE A FEW HAZY PATCHES HERE IN THERE IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
AREAS SUCH AS NE-CT AND CENTRAL SE MA AROUND TAUNTON...THOUGH NOT AS
HIGH OF CONFIDENCE SAY AS PLACES AROUND THE N-CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE W RESULTS IN AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE REFLECTION OF BROADSCALE LOW PRESSURE. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO STRETCH ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO PA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET OVER NEW ENGLAND. PLAUSIBLE
THAT THE W/SW COMPONENT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC N/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND IMPINGING ON THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN COULD YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR W NEW ENGLAND. WILL NOTE
THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

RENEWED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE WINDS RESULTING IN AN ONSHORE E-
FLOW. BENEATH A WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
W/SW FLOW...HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S...THE WARMEST
OF CONDITIONS OF WHICH OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR...COOLEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE E-SHORES WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF COOLER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONCLUDING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE W
SHOULD END. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A QUIET NIGHT.

SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ADVECTING E WILL
RESULT IN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS PERHAPS WILL YIELD A
BLANKET OF INSOLATION RESULTING IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR W NEW ENGLAND...THUS MAY KEEP THOSE AREAS MILDER AROUND
THE MID-60S WITH LOWS AROUND THE LOW-60S ELSEWHERE.

DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. FOG PERHAPS OF SOME CONCERN ALONG THE S-COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS...AS WELL AS OVER THE N-CT RIVER VALLEY...OTHERWISE
STICKY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BECOMING WARMER AND MORE HUMID TUESDAY AND HOT BY WEDNESDAY
* CHANCE OF T-STORMS LATE WED INTO THU
* TRENDING DRIER...LESS HUMID AND NOT AS WARM THU NGT/FRI/SAT

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

THE TWO MAIN WEATHER FEATURES NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY /SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE/ OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE AND ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHER TIER
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHEAST STATES LATER WED INTO
THU...FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM RELOADS WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS AND OH VLYS
SUNDAY. AS FOR MODEL DETAILS...MAIN DILEMMA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BECOMES THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE
00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WERE ON THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT NOW THE
12Z GEFS HAVE SPED UP WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLES
WERE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AND NOW THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH FROPA EARLY THU. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUID AS IT FORMS A FRONTAL WAVE WITH FROPA
LATE THU. GIVEN TIME SCALE IS STILL 96+ HRS AWAY A MODEL BLEND IS
LIKELY THE BEST APPROACH.

DAILY DETAILS....

TUESDAY...BECOMING WARMER AS MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVES OFFSHORE AND
IS REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. DESPITE LIGHT MODEL QPF THIS
RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAP TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER/T-
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUE MORNING SO MODEL QPF COULD BE MORE MORNING DRIZZLE THAN DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH MAY MAKE A RUN AT 90F...ESPECIALLY THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY. COOLEST SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW SURFACE WINDS OFF
THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH LATEST BUOYS AND TIDE
GAGES REPORTS INDICATE SOUTH COASTAL WATER TEMPS NOW INTO THE U60S
TO AROUND 70!

WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE /BY JULY
STANDARDS/ ENTERS THE NORTHEAST. ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR T-STORMS TO FIRE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE GFS AND GEFS NOT OFFERING
MUCH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WED ITS GENERATING 60-70% PROBS OF 1200
J/KG OF CAPE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW
RISK FOR STORMS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOWERING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY 25-30 KT...MUCH LESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF SHEAR.  BEFORE
THE STORMS DEVELOP A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT
90F. HOWEVER THE PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE AFTN AS PREFRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS THERE SHOULD BE A STIFF SSW
WIND WHICH WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT. IN FACT GFS
BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SSW WIND GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25-30 MPH
OVER RI AND EASTERN MA!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER AND LESS HUMID. NOT AS WARM AS
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART THU PER
GFS SO A RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA.
SHEAR/JET DYNAMICS STRONGER THU THAN WED BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
NEVERTHELESS TRENDING DRIER LATER THU FROM WEST TO EAST.

NEXT WEEKEND...LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH WITH SURFACE LOW PRES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SSW RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE HUMID TREND. BY SUNDAY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS
CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS NW OF A UUU-PYM LINE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SAVE FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS. SE OF THIS LINE...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR ARE
POSSIBLE IN A MIX OF SHRA/FOG/DZ THROUGH MID MORNING. NE
FLOW...MAINLY LIGHT.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT
ANY TERMINAL MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END AS WELL ACROSS SE MA.
NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE E NEAR SHORE THANKS TO SEA
BREEZES.

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...WITH
BEST CHANCE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER EACH NIGHT THE THREAT FOR FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE S COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE W.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE NE WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FEET AS A RESULT OF THE STRESS. BUOY 44017 S OF RI/BI SOUND
CONTINUES TO OBSERVE WAVES UP TO 4.6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING ALLOWING WINDS
TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.

WHILE MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS. PRESENTLY HAVE LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER...WITH MODEST SW WINDS AND SEAS. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE TUE WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THU. WINDS NEAR THE SE COAST OF MA MAY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS PARTICULARLY
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

FRI...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS. SOME LINGERING SSW SWELL IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




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