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000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AREA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UNTIL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATING HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AREA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UNTIL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATING HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH STRONGER
VALUES IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT MAY SUPPORT THUNDER IN THAT
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS FINE. HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS IN
SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH STRONGER
VALUES IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT MAY SUPPORT THUNDER IN THAT
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS FINE. HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS IN
SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME. A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. AS THE FLOW IS
STILL SW...CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION
DUE TO THE WAA PATTERN. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WILL
TAKE SOME TIME HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
FACT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING PER 700 MB ANALYSIS SO
BELIEVE THOSE SHOWERS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NW ZONES MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE
DAWN HOURS.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOP IN A FEW SITES AND IF CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...COULD SEE A FEW MORE SITES IMPACTED BY THE FOG. TEMPERATURES
HAVE HELD STEAD OVERNIGHT ONLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO.

TODAY...

LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES CLOUD DROP TO MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME. A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. AS THE FLOW IS
STILL SW...CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION
DUE TO THE WAA PATTERN. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WILL
TAKE SOME TIME HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
FACT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING PER 700 MB ANALYSIS SO
BELIEVE THOSE SHOWERS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NW ZONES MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE
DAWN HOURS.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOP IN A FEW SITES AND IF CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...COULD SEE A FEW MORE SITES IMPACTED BY THE FOG. TEMPERATURES
HAVE HELD STEAD OVERNIGHT ONLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO.

TODAY...

LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES CLOUD DROP TO MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME. A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
FLOW IS STILL SW...CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION DUE TO THE WAA PATTERN. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WILL
TAKE SOME TIME HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
FACT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING PER 700 MB ANALYSIS SO
BELIEVE THOSE SHOWERS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE NW ZONES MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE
DAWN HOURS.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SITES AND
IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...COULD SEE A FEW MORE SITES IMPACTED BY THE
FOG. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD STEAD OVERNIGHT ONLY DROPPING A DEGREE
OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES CLOUD DROP TO MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180215
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BE BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. MID-LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTATE NY ARE STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 180215
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BE BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. MID-LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTATE NY ARE STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. A MILD BUT
COMFORTABLE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND IN THE
VALLEYS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INSERTED SOME MORE FOG WHERE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. A MILD BUT
COMFORTABLE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND IN THE
VALLEYS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INSERTED SOME MORE FOG WHERE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. A MILD BUT
COMFORTABLE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND IN THE
VALLEYS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INSERTED SOME MORE FOG WHERE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEW PTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. A MILD BUT
COMFORTABLE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND IN THE
VALLEYS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INSERTED SOME MORE FOG WHERE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 172029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ONE MORE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER.  A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ITS
TRACK AND IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR WEST.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT***

SATURDAY...

ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY OF WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WILL BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. IN FACT...CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG MAY EVEN RESULT IN THE
LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA SIZE HAIL
EITHER GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18C.

ALL IN ALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT
IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  WHILE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.  THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

*** DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON ***

*** A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
  ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEXT TUE THRU FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF
  HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING
  REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AS
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE 850 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO
-4C TO -6C BY DAYS END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ABOUT -2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO. THUS MUCH COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SEVERAL MILD DAYS. BY MON THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS
WELL OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. SO DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY MONDAY
THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING
WIND. THEN THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION TUE-WED...WHICH
THEN ALL GUID AGREES ON THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE VICINITY VA/DE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUN/MON SHARPENS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR THE PARENT LOW OVER OH/PA TUE TO GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUID ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
TIME RANGE HERE. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM IMPACT HERE TUE THRU FRI. HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK
AND HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH IS QUITE NORMAL AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT TRACK OF DRY SLOT AND DURATION AND LOCATION OF
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. THIS
SUGGEST GREATEST IMPACT REGARDING HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE
NEED TO LEAVE ALL SOLUTIONS IN PLAY. THUS A MODEL BLEND OFFERS THE
MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME RANGE. NEVERTHELESS A PORTION OF
NEW ENGLAND /SOUTHERN-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN/ HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S WITH MU40S HIGHER TERRAIN! THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE SHAVED A FEW DEGS OFF GUID GIVEN TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE A LOT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION A GUSTY NW
WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 40S. QUITE A
DIFFERENCE FROM OUR 70 DEGS TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND MU20S WELL INLAND.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION ENDS WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING IN THE MU50S. IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIKELY PICK OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THRU FRI...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
ESPECIALLY EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS DRY SLOT AND LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS WILL DETERMINE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF
HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. TOO EARLY TO GIVE
SPECIFICS BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND WOULD
TYPICAL LOWER THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES MAY BE
IMPACTED...THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY BATTERING
THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOWARD MON MORNING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...INCREASING E-NE WINDS...PERIODS OF RAIN IN IFR AND/OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...6 TO 9 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST
SWELL AND WIND WAVE.  SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...IMPROVING VSBY AS NW WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LEFTOVER SE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO COMBINE WITH INCREASING NW WIND WAVES.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. LIKELY PICK OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY/WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A COASTAL STORM BUT LOCATION OF
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS LOW. LONG DURATION OF E-NE WINDS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GALE FORCE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LONG
DURATION AND LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY YIELD 15+ SEAS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. HEAVY RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL.
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS STORM GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
QUEBEC TO ENHANCE WIND FIELDS. STAY TUNED!

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT MID AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE A SLIGHT MARINE LAYER WAS
HELPING TO KEEP SKIES COMPLETELY SUNNY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH OR SO ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH GOOD MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT MID AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WAS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE A SLIGHT MARINE LAYER WAS
HELPING TO KEEP SKIES COMPLETELY SUNNY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH OR SO ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH GOOD MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  VFR THIS EVENING BUT MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WERE BURNING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MID MORNING.  OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.  BULK OF THE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

850 MB TEMPS AROUND +8C WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE AND WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON.  HIGHS TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT GOOD MIXING...SO EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LEFT OVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES WERE QUICKLY BURNING
OFF AT MID MORNING.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS.

TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM T/TD/SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE AROUND 8C AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO
850MB...COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS
WELL AS GUSTY SW WINDS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS.

TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 171108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM T/TD/SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE AROUND 8C AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO
850MB...COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS
WELL AS GUSTY SW WINDS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS.

TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM T/TD/SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE AROUND 8C AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO
850MB...COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS
WELL AS GUSTY SW WINDS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS.

TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENG NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS SNE. EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM T/TD/SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE AROUND 8C AND WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO
850MB...COULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS
WELL AS GUSTY SW WINDS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS. BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. APPEARS
THAT THE MID-LEVELS WILL HAVE ENOUGH BUT LACKING THE TRUE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE BELIEVE MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING W AND INCREASING...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON
* A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL
  TEMPS TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL US AND AMPLIFYING
TROF IN THE EAST.  TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME
RANGE THERE IS OBVIOUSLY INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF THE
COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING/INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
PRECIP BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL WET PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

DAILIES...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING
THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT  SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE
DAY.  AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES SAT NIGHT. MODEST QG FORCING SUGGESTS
A LOW PROB OF A FEW SHOWERS WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE EAST SUN
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
EXCELLENT DRYING MOVES IN.  GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA BRINGS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD 850 MB TEMPS INTO SNE WHICH FALL TO -5C BY LATE
SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID 50S...WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NW HIGHER TERRAIN.  GOOD MIXING IN CAA PATTERN
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SFC RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NW MA AND SW NH
AND LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON WITH SUNSHINE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  AFTER A COLD START TO
THE DAY...SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S WITH LESS WIND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE EAST EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNE DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND COOL TEMPS...BUT THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS VERY
UNCERTAIN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
MIGHT OCCUR. ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO SNE
WHILE GFS HAS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  IN
ADDITION...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF STRONG E/NE WINDS SOMETIME WED INTO
THU...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ.  SO...CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW
DURING THIS TIME SO IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING APPEAR LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. DIURNAL SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

TONIGHT...VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS IN TYPICAL PRONE REGIONS.

TOMORROW...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY SHOWER. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING...THEN CLEARING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MAY SEE SOME RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AS A RESULT OF SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
GONZALO. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS.

TOMORROW...SEAS AND SWELLS REMAIN HIGH AS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVES BY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. IN FACT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WILL BE BETWEEN 7-10 FEET. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL W/NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. COMBINATION OF W/NW WINDWAVE AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL
FROM GONZALO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING SUN.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. E/SE WINDS DEVELOPING AS COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPS TO THE S. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 25+ KTS LATE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
STORM WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN





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