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000
FXUS61 KBOX 311108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

7 AM UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS INCLUDING A QUICKER INCREASING OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

7 AM UPDATE...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS INCLUDING A QUICKER INCREASING OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 310758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 310758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THE WEEKEND
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER CONTINUES.  SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST
  OF I-95***

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS.
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH
BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.  WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER
PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.   MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE
WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING.

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  LOW
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF I-95.  SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY
AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 310545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM UPDATE...

THE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE HAVE FALLEN
APART AND JUST A TOUCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT
WINDS/RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK MAINLY INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM UPDATE...

THE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE HAVE FALLEN
APART AND JUST A TOUCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT
WINDS/RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK MAINLY INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 310141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WE MAY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS/RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD STILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
50S IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310141
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

940 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WE MAY
SEE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE ACTIVITY...LIGHT WINDS/RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD STILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
50S IN MOST LOCALES WITH LOWER 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 302300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
MAY LIMIT THIS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG IN THE NORMAL PRONE REGION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW CHANGES THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 02Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE...UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302017
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT.  OUT WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO TURN MORE
ZONAL BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. FOR CONFIDENCE LEVEL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SEEP
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN. MODELS TRY TO PUSH OUT SOME QPF
BUT DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT EAST BUILD
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. IN FACT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO FOR NOW MENTIONED
JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

MAIN FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WAS FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OVERALL A STALLED FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AS A FEW WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN AND THE EC/ECENS/UKMET. THE GFS CAMP BRINGS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE EC CAMP BRINGS IT IN DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FLOW TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING THE PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...AND ALMOST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A GOOD 850 MB LLJ INTO
THE FLOW AT RESPECTIVE TIMES FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. ALSO BECAUSE
OF THE INCREASING LLJ CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR...JUST A
MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

WORK WEEK...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT ON TUESDAY AS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE AS IT IS STILL 6-7
DAYS AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS
EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA AND ISO THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS. BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING VSBY CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS/WINDS STILL BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND ABNORMALLY COLD AIR
AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS.
ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPERATURES
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL ONCE MORE. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES...WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG...AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB
COLD POOL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...THE COLD
POOL ALOFT AND ROBUST SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

INSTABILITY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND ABNORMALLY COLD AIR
AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS
THE MOST UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN END
TIME OF SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM A
DISTANT OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE...
CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TIMING AGAIN IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN FACTOR.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN
YESTERDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING
BUT ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM WITH THE SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO START TO DISSIPATE AS THE SUN COMES
UP. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL MODELED.  USED A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE AND
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR AT 500MB MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO
THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
WAVERING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING
SPRINKLE.  A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES.  VERY LITTLE FORCING/INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY.  HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  0 TO 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND
-15C...WHICH IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALL IN ALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL...COLD POOL ALOFT/GOOD SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEST SHOT OF THAT IS
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. LOW RISK
OF MARGINAL 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DISTANT LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...BASED ON MOST WAVE GUIDANCE CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FEET FOR NOW
BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

235 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.  ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FOR LATE JULY.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE MILD SPOTS WILL
BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.  A TOUCH OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  A
FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

905 PM UPDATE...

STILL A DECK OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  REGARDLESS...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH.  THE
MILD SPOTS WILL BE THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN
BOSTON/PROVIDENCE...WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 292335
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...AND BY MID EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

OVERNIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S IN SOME LOCALES NEAR
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE FAR INTERIOR MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING LEFTOVER SWELL HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...SO THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY CAPE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED...BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THU AND
FRI SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY MORE MUGGY FEEL.

DURING THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST...ENABLING A FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE FRONT COMES TO OUR
AREA...AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS NEARBY. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES
TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. 12Z GFS SHOWS ROBUST
MOISTURE WITH A RIBBON OF UP TO 2 INCH PWATS LINGERING IN OUR
AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES COME TO FRUITION THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD ON CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...ECMWF INDICATES FRONT MAY BE
OFFSHORE AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP.

DRIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AS BY THIS TIME THE FRONT
SHOULD BE FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.  DURING
FRI ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE
TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON THURSDAY FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA SEAS/WINDS DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS
POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY
LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




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