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000
FXUS61 KBOX 242301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THICKER MID CLOUD SHIELD STILL BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES AND WILL ARRIVE IN SNE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GUSTY
SW WINDS 20-30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTINESS
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK E OUT OF NY STATE
TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND RIDGING
INLAND TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION.

SW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO SLOWLY
RISE. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50S. MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS NY STATE DURING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS WELL AS CONTINUED SW SURFACE WINDS
AND H5 RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...WILL SEE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT.

MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN AGAIN NEAR THE S COAST AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON NIGHT AS DEWPTS/RH VALUES INCREASE.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...IT WILL STILL BE WARM ON MON WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE MUGGY AS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z-02Z
MAINLY NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 8KFT AFTER 03Z THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z
MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
EARLY MON MORNING AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE S COAST AND OUTER CAPE COD/NANTUCKET. SW WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 06Z AS GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS LINGER THERE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL DIMINISH...FIRST AT BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING /23Z/...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS.
MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
DURING MON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
SW WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS ALSO BUILD
TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WIND WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
4 PM UPDATE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SW WINDS IN PLACE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
FROM 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY...LOWEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THICKER MID CLOUD SHIELD STILL BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES AND WILL ARRIVE IN SNE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GUSTY
SW WINDS 20-30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTINESS
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK E OUT OF NY STATE
TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND RIDGING
INLAND TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION.

SW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO SLOWLY
RISE. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50S. MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS NY STATE DURING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS WELL AS CONTINUED SW SURFACE WINDS
AND H5 RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...WILL SEE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT.

MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN AGAIN NEAR THE S COAST AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON NIGHT AS DEWPTS/RH VALUES INCREASE.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...IT WILL STILL BE WARM ON MON WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE MUGGY AS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z-02Z
MAINLY NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 8KFT AFTER 03Z THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z
MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
EARLY MON MORNING AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE S COAST AND OUTER CAPE COD/NANTUCKET. SW WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 06Z AS GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS LINGER THERE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL DIMINISH...FIRST AT BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING /23Z/...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS.
MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
DURING MON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
SW WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS ALSO BUILD
TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WIND WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
4 PM UPDATE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SW WINDS IN PLACE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
FROM 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY...LOWEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSEST
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS N VT/CENTRAL NH AT
20Z BUT HEADING SE OFF THE ME COAST.

EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM
THE W.

SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK E OUT OF NY STATE
TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. GOOD
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AND RIDGING INLAND TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION.

SW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO SLOWLY
RISE. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50S. MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS NY STATE DURING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS WELL AS CONTINUED SW SURFACE WINDS
AND H5 RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...WILL SEE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT.

MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN AGAIN NEAR THE S COAST AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON NIGHT AS DEWPTS/RH VALUES INCREASE.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...IT WILL STILL BE WARM ON MON WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE MUGGY AS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z-02Z
MAINLY NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 8KFT AFTER 03Z THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z
MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
EARLY MON MORNING AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE S COAST AND OUTER CAPE COD/NANTUCKET. SW WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 06Z AS GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS LINGER THERE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL DIMINISH...FIRST AT BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING /23Z/...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS.
MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
DURING MON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
SW WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS ALSO BUILD
TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WIND WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

4 PM UPDATE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SW WINDS IN PLACE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
FROM 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY...LOWEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSEST
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS N VT/CENTRAL NH AT
20Z BUT HEADING SE OFF THE ME COAST.

EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE
ANOTHER BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM
THE W.

SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK E OUT OF NY STATE
TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. GOOD
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AND RIDGING INLAND TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION.

SW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO SLOWLY
RISE. WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING TO THE 50S. MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
AS IT SHIFTS E ACROSS NY STATE DURING MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS WELL AS CONTINUED SW SURFACE WINDS
AND H5 RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...WILL SEE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT.

MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN AGAIN NEAR THE S COAST AS WELL AS OUTER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS LATE MON NIGHT AS DEWPTS/RH VALUES INCREASE.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...IT WILL STILL BE WARM ON MON WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE MUGGY AS DEWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z-02Z
MAINLY NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 8KFT AFTER 03Z THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z
MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
EARLY MON MORNING AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE S COAST AND OUTER CAPE COD/NANTUCKET. SW WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT...GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 06Z AS GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS LINGER THERE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL DIMINISH...FIRST AT BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING /23Z/...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS.
MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH REDUCED VSBYS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
DURING MON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
SW WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS ALSO BUILD
TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WIND WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

4 PM UPDATE...
EXPECT DEWPTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SW WINDS IN PLACE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
FROM 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY...LOWEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PRETTY
GOOD W-SW FLOW IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND...WITH GOOD
MIXING...NOTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY AS WELL. READINGS AT 15Z
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S EXCEPT LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NEAR TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PROB OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

NOTING SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE FERRIES OUT TO THE ISLANDS OF
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT...MAINLY ON BUZZARDS BAY
AND VINEYARD SOUND ON THE SW WIND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS MAINLY S OF NANTUCKET/MARTHAS
VINEYARD THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WINDWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
11 AM UPDATE...
DEWPTS AWAY FROM THE S COAST ARE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST...DOWN
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...NOTING MIN
RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG THERE AS ALONG THE COAST...NOTING GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THERE.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PRETTY
GOOD W-SW FLOW IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND...WITH GOOD
MIXING...NOTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY AS WELL. READINGS AT 15Z
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S EXCEPT LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NEAR TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PROB OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

NOTING SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE FERRIES OUT TO THE ISLANDS OF
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT...MAINLY ON BUZZARDS BAY
AND VINEYARD SOUND ON THE SW WIND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS MAINLY S OF NANTUCKET/MARTHAS
VINEYARD THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WINDWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
11 AM UPDATE...
DEWPTS AWAY FROM THE S COAST ARE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST...DOWN
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...NOTING MIN
RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG THERE AS ALONG THE COAST...NOTING GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THERE.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PRETTY
GOOD W-SW FLOW IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND...WITH GOOD
MIXING...NOTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY AS WELL. READINGS AT 15Z
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S EXCEPT LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NEAR TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM AND HUMID INTO THE WEEKEND
* INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WED INTO THU
* MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RIDING OVER THE TOP WILL DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
FROPA AROUND THU TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
TUE/WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE THU WITH THE FROPA...BUT
NEARBY INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTION FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON WED/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A
MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE LEANED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SNE IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH SW FLOW BRINGING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS 15-16C SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT SW WINDS OFF COOLER OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO 60+ SO IT WILL START
TO FEEL A BIT HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL...THINK TUE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR W NEW ENG AS MODELS GENERATE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG AND KI CLIMBING TO 30+. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ACROSS W
ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TUE.
MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG SO EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING...MAINLY CONFINED TO W ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KT SO MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH PWATS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY INTERIOR. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE THU AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH
SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK FROPA MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAPES 1000+ J/KG AND SOME CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE DAY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AS WELL BUT STILL LESS THAN 30
KT. HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THU. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WARMEST 80S IN THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO
THE N. ECMWF HAS FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WPC CONSENSUS FAVORED
LOWER SOLUTION. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
TIMING OF FRONT WILL DICTATE WHICH WEEKEND DAY HAS BETTER CHANCE
OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PROB OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MOSTLY VFR CIGS. BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS. SW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

NOTING SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE FERRIES OUT TO THE ISLANDS OF
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT...MAINLY ON BUZZARDS BAY
AND VINEYARD SOUND ON THE SW WIND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS MAINLY S OF NANTUCKET/MARTHAS
VINEYARD THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SWELL AND WINDWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS. FOG
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LENDING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
11 AM UPDATE...
DEWPTS AWAY FROM THE S COAST ARE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST...DOWN
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...NOTING MIN
RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG THERE AS ALONG THE COAST...NOTING GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THERE.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241523
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1123 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PRETTY
GOOD W-SW FLOW IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND...WITH GOOD
MIXING...NOTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY AS WELL. READINGS AT 15Z
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S EXCEPT LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NEAR TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PROB OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

NOTING SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE FERRIES OUT TO THE ISLANDS OF
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT...MAINLY ON BUZZARDS BAY
AND VINEYARD SOUND ON THE SW WIND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS MAINLY S OF NANTUCKET/MARTHAS
VINEYARD THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

11 AM UPDATE...
DEWPTS AWAY FROM THE S COAST ARE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST...DOWN
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...NOTING MIN
RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG THERE AS ALONG THE COAST...NOTING GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THERE.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241523
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1123 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PRETTY
GOOD W-SW FLOW IN PLACE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND...WITH GOOD
MIXING...NOTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY AS WELL. READINGS AT 15Z
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S EXCEPT LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NEAR TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PROB OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

NOTING SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE FERRIES OUT TO THE ISLANDS OF
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT...MAINLY ON BUZZARDS BAY
AND VINEYARD SOUND ON THE SW WIND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS MAINLY S OF NANTUCKET/MARTHAS
VINEYARD THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

11 AM UPDATE...
DEWPTS AWAY FROM THE S COAST ARE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST...DOWN
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...NOTING MIN
RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG THERE AS ALONG THE COAST...NOTING GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THERE.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241123
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. THEY MAY GRAZE N MA.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM
S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.

STILL SEEING AROUND 20 KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS / SOUNDS PER
COASTAL BUOYS AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA
REMAINS POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL WATERS WITH EXPECTED
25 KT GUSTS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER
WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     231-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241123
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. THEY MAY GRAZE N MA.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM
S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.

STILL SEEING AROUND 20 KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS / SOUNDS PER
COASTAL BUOYS AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA
REMAINS POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL WATERS WITH EXPECTED
25 KT GUSTS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER
WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     231-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. THEY MAY GRAZE N MA.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM
S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...

STILL SEEING AROUND 20 KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS / SOUNDS PER
COASTAL BUOYS AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA
REMAINS POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
DUE TO EXPECTED 25 KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. THEY MAY GRAZE N MA.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM
S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

VFR WITH SW FLOW. 20-25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...

STILL SEEING AROUND 20 KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS / SOUNDS PER
COASTAL BUOYS AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA
REMAINS POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY
DUE TO EXPECTED 25 KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

330 AM UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORM IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO PASS TO
OUR N THIS MORNING BUT THEY MAY GRAZE NORTHERN MA. CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST
WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA REMAINS
POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO
EXPECTED 25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

330 AM UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORM IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO PASS TO
OUR N THIS MORNING BUT THEY MAY GRAZE NORTHERN MA. CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST
WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA REMAINS
POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO
EXPECTED 25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

330 AM UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORM IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO PASS TO
OUR N THIS MORNING BUT THEY MAY GRAZE NORTHERN MA. CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST
WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA REMAINS
POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO
EXPECTED 25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEGINNING TODAY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD
REMAIN WET ALL THE WAY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

330 AM UPDATE...

STARTING TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORM IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO PASS TO
OUR N THIS MORNING BUT THEY MAY GRAZE NORTHERN MA. CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH COLUMN. MIXING LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
MA WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE...ASIDE FROM S COAST
WHERE IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 70S AND LOWER 80S EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COLDER OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

SW FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS BRING WARM FRONT
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. 00Z GFS SEEMS OVERDONE IN
BRINGING PRECIPITATION THIS FAR E...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE LIFT OVER OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
/MAINLY MID LEVEL/ WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MON
ACROSS NW MA.

LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
70S/LOWER 80S MON EXCEPT 60S ON S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM MUGGY AND DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
 - INCREASING SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
 - PERHAPS A LULL IN THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
 - LOOKING POTENTIALLY WET AND ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH BOTH STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ACROSS THE E-CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT ALLOWANCE OF N-STREAM
ENERGY TO SLIP S. AS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SUBSEQUENT TO THE FLATTENING MARITIME FLOW AND
RETROGRADING LOW PULLING COOLER AIR CYCLONICALLY SW. THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A RIDGING PATTERN. SO EXPECTATION THRU
THE WEEK IS FOR N-STREAM ENERGY TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TROUGH S
SHIFTING THE CONVERGENT SW-FLOW ALONG WITH THETA-E / INSTABILITY
AXES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE
COMPARED TO INSTABILITY...SO ECHO PRIOR FORECASTER WITH CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAIN AS A THREAT.

WILL KEEP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THOUGH THE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
N AND W MAY YIELD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD PUSH E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW...FEEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE / WEAKEN ANY ACTIVITY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BETTER FORCING AND SW-CONVERGENT FLOW OF MOIST-
INSTABILITY AXES IS WELL NW AT THIS TIME. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST
PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT SE. INCREASING
POP CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN
DESTABILIZE. COULD BE ISSUES WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY W DRIFTS E OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOW-90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY COULD BE A LULL WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE IF
YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF. LOW CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER WAVE N PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S
AND STALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND MAKING IT A FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET-WEATHER. HAVE SOME DOUBTS WITH CONVERGENT MASS-FIELDS
N AS SURFACE REFLECTIONS FOCUS S WITH THERMAL-INSTABILITY-MOIST
AXES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY
SW-FLOW WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
S/SE-COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR -SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY. SW-FLOW
WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE SCA REMAINS
POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO
EXPECTED 25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

INCREASING SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS BAY AND
WESTERN PORTION OF VINEYARD SOUND SHOULD LEAD TO STEEP WAVES...
FIRST THROUGH SUNRISE AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. FOG ANTICIPATED LENDING
TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD TODAY GIVEN
LOW HUMIDITY /20-30 PERCENT/...GUSTY SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO
40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED.
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED
25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON
OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO
40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED.
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED
25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON
OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO
40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED.
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED
25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON
OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
105 AM UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO
40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE
TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS
AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED.
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED
25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON
OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE.

GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY
RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...

SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GRAZE AT LEAST NORTHERN MA
OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS BECAME A BIT GUSTY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL BUOYS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND FERRY REPORTS INDICATE SW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS WHERE WE
WILL MAINTAIN SCA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA IN LATER
FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NEAR SHORE WATERS SUN AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25KT GUSTS COMING OFF LAND...AS WELL
AS OUTER WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...

SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GRAZE AT LEAST NORTHERN MA
OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS BECAME A BIT GUSTY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL BUOYS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND FERRY REPORTS INDICATE SW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS WHERE WE
WILL MAINTAIN SCA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA IN LATER
FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NEAR SHORE WATERS SUN AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25KT GUSTS COMING OFF LAND...AS WELL
AS OUTER WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS KEEP BULK OF THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
BUT EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NE MA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOCLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL S OF
NEW ENG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL LIFT
NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK
TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...ISSUED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR GUSTS
TO 25 KT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS KEEP BULK OF THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
BUT EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NE MA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOCLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL S OF
NEW ENG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL LIFT
NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK
TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...ISSUED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR GUSTS
TO 25 KT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS KEEP BULK OF THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
BUT EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NE MA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOCLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL S OF
NEW ENG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL LIFT
NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK
TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...ISSUED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR GUSTS
TO 25 KT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS KEEP BULK OF THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
BUT EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN AND NE MA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOCLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL S OF
NEW ENG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL LIFT
NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK
TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...ISSUED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR GUSTS
TO 25 KT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232043
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE.
NOTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING SE OUT OF WESTERN
QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO N AND
CENTRAL MA BY AROUND SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S BY
AROUND 03Z.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
WILL LIFT NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL BACK TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232043
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE.
NOTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING SE OUT OF WESTERN
QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO N AND
CENTRAL MA BY AROUND SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S BY
AROUND 03Z.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
WILL LIFT NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL BACK TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232043
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE.
NOTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING SE OUT OF WESTERN
QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO N AND
CENTRAL MA BY AROUND SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S BY
AROUND 03Z.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
WILL LIFT NE AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SW DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL BACK TO THE 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AS SW WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BUT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231950
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL
BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD
RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD
RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD
RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD
RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD
RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
EXCEPT FOR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE NJ COAST. GOOD MIXING TO H85 ALSO IN
PLACE THOUGH NOTING WINDS AOA GROUND LEVEL ALSO DIMINISH AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E COAST AS WELL AS ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 15Z.

TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS.
NOTING READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. WINDS ALSO STARTING
TO BACK TO W AS THEY DIMINISH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
REGION...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED
THE DEWPTS TO LOWER JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
LOWERED THE RH/S TO BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT INLAND AND 20-30 PCT
ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REMAIN IN LINE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. HELD OFF ON THIS UNTIL NEAR SHORE WATERS SMALL
CRAFT ENDED AT 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

W/NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25 KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO
ALLOWED SMALL CRAFTS TO EXPIRE. SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS /AROUND 6 FT AT
BUOY 44018 E OF NANTUCKET/ SO EXTENDED A LITTLE BIT LONGER THERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO W-SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
EXCEPT FOR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE NJ COAST. GOOD MIXING TO H85 ALSO IN
PLACE THOUGH NOTING WINDS AOA GROUND LEVEL ALSO DIMINISH AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E COAST AS WELL AS ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 15Z.

TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS.
NOTING READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. WINDS ALSO STARTING
TO BACK TO W AS THEY DIMINISH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
REGION...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED
THE DEWPTS TO LOWER JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
LOWERED THE RH/S TO BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT INLAND AND 20-30 PCT
ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REMAIN IN LINE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. HELD OFF ON THIS UNTIL NEAR SHORE WATERS SMALL
CRAFT ENDED AT 11 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

W/NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25 KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

11 AM UPDATE...

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO
ALLOWED SMALL CRAFTS TO EXPIRE. SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS /AROUND 6 FT AT
BUOY 44018 E OF NANTUCKET/ SO EXTENDED A LITTLE BIT LONGER THERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO W-SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN
WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
REBOUND ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...RESULTING
IN DRY W/NW FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 825 MB THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WILL BRING 20-25 MPH GUSTS /ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN/. MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO
SURFACE...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO TEENS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS OPPOSED TO 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE. ONLY
NAM MOS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.

DESPITE SUNSHINE AND W FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

W/NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25 KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SW FLOW
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH
SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...
WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&


.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
REBOUND ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...RESULTING
IN DRY W/NW FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 825 MB THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WILL BRING 20-25 MPH GUSTS /ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN/. MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO
SURFACE...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO TEENS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS OPPOSED TO 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE. ONLY
NAM MOS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.

DESPITE SUNSHINE AND W FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

W/NW WINDS GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25 KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SW FLOW
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH
SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...
WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&


.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230716
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

315 AM UPDATE...

STILL SEEING PATCHY MID CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...SOME OF WHICH HAVE SPILLED INTO NORTHERN MA. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE FROST/FREEZE IN AREAS WHERE HEADLINES
ARE POSTED AS SKIES CLEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FREE FALL IN TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...RESULTING
IN DRY W/NW FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 825 MB THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WILL BRING 20-25 MPH GUSTS /ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN/. MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO
SURFACE...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO TEENS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS OPPOSED TO 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE. ONLY
NAM MOS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.

DESPITE SUNSHINE AND W FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SW FLOW
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH
SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W/NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...
WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230716
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER
TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

315 AM UPDATE...

STILL SEEING PATCHY MID CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...SOME OF WHICH HAVE SPILLED INTO NORTHERN MA. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...BUT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE FROST/FREEZE IN AREAS WHERE HEADLINES
ARE POSTED AS SKIES CLEAR BEFORE DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE WINDS HAVE
STAYED UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FREE FALL IN TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...RESULTING
IN DRY W/NW FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 825 MB THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WILL BRING 20-25 MPH GUSTS /ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN/. MIXING WILL ALSO BRING DRY AIR DOWN TO
SURFACE...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO TEENS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS OPPOSED TO 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE. ONLY
NAM MOS SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.

DESPITE SUNSHINE AND W FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED
OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY
 - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK
 - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING
 - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN-
WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF
S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING
FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S
NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF
RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN
SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS
THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL
HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS
BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-
LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT THROUGH MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW MILES OF SHORE BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SW FLOW
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH
SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
W/NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...
WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK TODAY.

DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY MID CLOUDS MOVING OFF S COAST AND THRU CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR BUT STILL SEEING DECENT MIXING OVER MOST
OF AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN FROST/FREEZE
WHERE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AND LESS SO ACROSS USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS...WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN MA/CT MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY MID CLOUDS MOVING OFF S COAST AND THRU CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR BUT STILL SEEING DECENT MIXING OVER MOST
OF AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN FROST/FREEZE
WHERE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AND LESS SO ACROSS USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS...WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN MA/CT MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY MID CLOUDS MOVING OFF S COAST AND THRU CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR BUT STILL SEEING DECENT MIXING OVER MOST
OF AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN FROST/FREEZE
WHERE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AND LESS SO ACROSS USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS...WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN MA/CT MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230517
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
115 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY MID CLOUDS MOVING OFF S COAST AND THRU CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR BUT STILL SEEING DECENT MIXING OVER MOST
OF AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN FROST/FREEZE
WHERE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AND LESS SO ACROSS USUAL
COLD SPOTS IN INTERIOR E MA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

W/NW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE WINDS BACK TO
W/SW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS GUST TO
20-25KT SUN...ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. W/NW FLOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS...WITH SEA
BREEZES LIKELY. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN MA/CT MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-009>011-
     026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
925 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO 20S BEHIND IT. STILL SEEING FEW
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR BUT REMAIN GUSTY
NEAR COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MA WHERE WE HAVE FREEZE WARNINGS POSTED...
AND INTO MID 30S WHERE WE HAVE FROST ADVISORIES. DECIDED NOT TO
EXPAND HEADLINES FARTHER E SINCE ANY OCCURRENCE OF FROST WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN USUAL
COLD SPOTS OF N CT AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT NEAR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE. W/NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SAT WITH
20KT GUSTS MAINLY NEAR COAST...THEN DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. VFR
THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...BELK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WITH AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
925 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO 20S BEHIND IT. STILL SEEING FEW
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR BUT REMAIN GUSTY
NEAR COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MA WHERE WE HAVE FREEZE WARNINGS POSTED...
AND INTO MID 30S WHERE WE HAVE FROST ADVISORIES. DECIDED NOT TO
EXPAND HEADLINES FARTHER E SINCE ANY OCCURRENCE OF FROST WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN USUAL
COLD SPOTS OF N CT AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT NEAR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE. W/NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SAT WITH
20KT GUSTS MAINLY NEAR COAST...THEN DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. VFR
THROUGH PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING NW WINDS TO
WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SCA REMAINS POSTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WATERS AND REMAINS BELOW
SCA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/JWD
MARINE...BELK/DOODY/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...BELK
CLIMATE...BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MA. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT /ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ACTING MORE LIKE A DRY-LINE/ IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS ERN MA AND RI...JUST E OF A PVD-BOS LINE. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME ATTEMPT AT -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S BEHIND IT...THEY HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLEING AT BEST. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR NIL POPS THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THIS TEMP DECLINE AND A LOOK AT
LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS DECOUPLING IN THE AREAS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SO NO PROPOSED
CHANGES. WOULD LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THE I-495 CORRIDOR HERE
THOUGH...AS AN AREA WHERE SOME LOW-LYING LCOATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SOME VERY PATCHY FROST BY MORNING.
THESE ARE TYPICAL OUTLIERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING THIS FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NEGATIVE SEASONAL DEPARTURES...AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...BUT THE MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS YES. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GENERAL HIGH BIAS FOR WIND SPEED...WILL
GO MORE WITH THE SCENARIO OF DECOUPLING WINDS AND STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH HAD LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST MA...SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF FROST ADVISORIES. WE COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...SUCH AS NORWOOD AND
TAUNTON...BUT FEEL IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

00Z UPDATE...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...EXPECT THEM TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. AFTER WHICH THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE NEAR
E COAST TERMINALS. VFR REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

SAT NIGHT...WSW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NO PRECIP AND
GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MA. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT /ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ACTING MORE LIKE A DRY-LINE/ IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS ERN MA AND RI...JUST E OF A PVD-BOS LINE. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME ATTEMPT AT -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S BEHIND IT...THEY HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLEING AT BEST. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR NIL POPS THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THIS TEMP DECLINE AND A LOOK AT
LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS DECOUPLING IN THE AREAS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SO NO PROPOSED
CHANGES. WOULD LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THE I-495 CORRIDOR HERE
THOUGH...AS AN AREA WHERE SOME LOW-LYING LCOATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SOME VERY PATCHY FROST BY MORNING.
THESE ARE TYPICAL OUTLIERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING THIS FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NEGATIVE SEASONAL DEPARTURES...AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...BUT THE MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS YES. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GENERAL HIGH BIAS FOR WIND SPEED...WILL
GO MORE WITH THE SCENARIO OF DECOUPLING WINDS AND STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH HAD LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST MA...SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF FROST ADVISORIES. WE COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...SUCH AS NORWOOD AND
TAUNTON...BUT FEEL IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

00Z UPDATE...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...EXPECT THEM TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. AFTER WHICH THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE NEAR
E COAST TERMINALS. VFR REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

SAT NIGHT...WSW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NO PRECIP AND
GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MA. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT /ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ACTING MORE LIKE A DRY-LINE/ IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS ERN MA AND RI...JUST E OF A PVD-BOS LINE. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME ATTEMPT AT -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S BEHIND IT...THEY HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLEING AT BEST. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR NIL POPS THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THIS TEMP DECLINE AND A LOOK AT
LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS DECOUPLING IN THE AREAS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SO NO PROPOSED
CHANGES. WOULD LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THE I-495 CORRIDOR HERE
THOUGH...AS AN AREA WHERE SOME LOW-LYING LCOATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SOME VERY PATCHY FROST BY MORNING.
THESE ARE TYPICAL OUTLIERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING THIS FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NEGATIVE SEASONAL DEPARTURES...AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...BUT THE MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS YES. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GENERAL HIGH BIAS FOR WIND SPEED...WILL
GO MORE WITH THE SCENARIO OF DECOUPLING WINDS AND STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH HAD LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST MA...SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF FROST ADVISORIES. WE COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...SUCH AS NORWOOD AND
TAUNTON...BUT FEEL IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

00Z UPDATE...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...EXPECT THEM TO LINGER THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z. AFTER WHICH THEY WILL ONLY REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE NEAR
E COAST TERMINALS. VFR REMAINS IN PLACE.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

SAT NIGHT...WSW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NO PRECIP AND
GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MA. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING THIS FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NEGATIVE SEASONAL DEPARTURES...AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...BUT THE MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS YES. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GENERAL HIGH BIAS FOR WIND SPEED...WILL
GO MORE WITH THE SCENARIO OF DECOUPLING WINDS AND STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH HAD LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST MA...SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF FROST ADVISORIES. WE COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...SUCH AS NORWOOD AND
TAUNTON...BUT FEEL IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

19Z UPDATE...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT
SHOWER POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

SAT NIGHT...WSW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NO PRECIP AND
GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221948
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MA. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
THERE IS THE LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING THIS FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NEGATIVE SEASONAL DEPARTURES...AND NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR FROST FORMATION. THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...BUT THE MOS OUTPUT SUGGESTS YES. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF
RAW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GENERAL HIGH BIAS FOR WIND SPEED...WILL
GO MORE WITH THE SCENARIO OF DECOUPLING WINDS AND STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH HAD LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN THE MAJORITY OF MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST MA...SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF FROST ADVISORIES. WE COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA...SUCH AS NORWOOD AND
TAUNTON...BUT FEEL IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES GRADUALLY INCREASES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST WIND. PRESENT THINKING IS THIS
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZES FROM DEVELOPING.

UNSEASONABLE COLD CONTINUES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT HIT-OR-MISS
 - GRADUAL WARMING LEADS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH 22.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION...
AGREE WITH THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK THAT WARMER THAN USUAL WEATHER
WILL RETURN AFTER A COOL START THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS SHIFT
FORECASTER NOTED THAT THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
BERMUDA HIGH AND IT/S SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE LIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO RECEDE BACK INTO NE QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THEREFORE...
WILL BE CONTINUING THIS TREND THANKS TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST RUN SOLUTIONS. KIND OF LIKE THE CMC/ECMWF AS A BLEND TO
START GIVEN THEIR BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLIFIED
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MASS FIELD RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE WITH PWATS NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TO QUOTE W.B. YEATS...THE CENTRE CANNOT HOLD...A
DESTABILIZED COLUMN COULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION PARTICULARLY AS
A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS E
BY TUE-WED. NEAR NEUTRAL AO/NAO ALSO SUGGEST THE BLOCK WON/T HOLD
UP.

DETAILS...

SUN...MAINLY A REBOUND DAY. THE COLDER TEMPS OF SAT WILL BE
GIVING WAY TO MORE MODERATE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE REACHING THE NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF +8C TO +10C. SW WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING SO WARMER LOCALES OF WRN MA/CT WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 80...WHILE THE REMAINING LOCALES REMAIN IN THE
70S. THIS MODERATE W FLOW IS LIKELY ALSO TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

MON...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS IT/S BUILDING PROCESS LLJ AND
ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
/PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 1.0 INCHES/ AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE TO YIELD A RISK FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN MASS/CT. ECHO PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT
IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT...AND CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +10C
OR +12C...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER MIXING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD MAY KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL...BUT WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY AS THE BUILDING THETA-E RIDGE SUGGESTS DWPTS HEADING INTO
THE 50S.

TUE AND WED...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY HERE. PEAK THETA-E
RIDGING AND SLIGHT COOLING AT H5 ARE LIKELY TO YIELD MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. BUFKIT PROFILES DENOTE
VERY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ ALONG WITH SFC BASED
INSTABILITY 500- 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER LLJ AND UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE REMAIN TO THE NW ON TUE...SO SUSPECT MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS NW. ON WED...RELOADING OF THE PATTERN
AND SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TUE SHORTWAVE MAY MITIGATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZED
PROFILE. GIVEN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT WITH
MITIGATING FACTORS...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE IN THE W
EACH AFTERNOON AS IT/S LIKELY TO BE MORE HIT OR MISS. RETURN
FLOW...WITH W COMPONENT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS ALL SUGGEST
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90F IN
WARM SPOTS. DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SUGGEST UNCOMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.

THU AND FRI...ONCE AGAIN A TRICKY FORECAST HERE. IN THIS
CASE...BETTER LOW LVL FORCING IS EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF A MORE
ROBUST MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE IS THE REBOUNDING RIDGE MENTIONED EARLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT/TROF SYSTEM.
BUFKIT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH
COULD PRECLUDE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...BUT THIS IS A WEEK OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW TO A NEAR STALL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. PROVIDING A NEAR STEADY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

19Z UPDATE...

THROUGH TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT
SHOWER POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR...WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAINLY LIGHT W-SW
WINDS...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN WRN
MA/CT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR COASTLINES...THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR.  ALSO...SW FLOW DOMINATES.  LOW CHANCE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY IN THE FAR
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

SAT NIGHT...WSW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. NO PRECIP AND
GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS YIELDING PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SW...AND INCREASE WITH A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
EXPECT A SLOWLY BUILDING SW SWELL.  THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT THE ENTIRE TIME.
SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LAST NIGHT...AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...WILL
ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-
     009>011-026.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002-003-
     008.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1223 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLEASANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

16Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1223 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLEASANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

16Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE OFFSHORE WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS SEEN PER LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. IMPROVEMENT OVER CAPE / ISLANDS IMMEDIATE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS
BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE OFFSHORE WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS SEEN PER LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. IMPROVEMENT OVER CAPE / ISLANDS IMMEDIATE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS
BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE OFFSHORE WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS SEEN PER LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. IMPROVEMENT OVER CAPE / ISLANDS IMMEDIATE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS
BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN EXITS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHICH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST
AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL DAY...NOT
ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE
LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE OFFSHORE WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS SEEN PER LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.

HOWEVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS
WILL BE RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C
BY DAYS END! THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CAP/LID ON CONVECTION.

THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...
VFR. IMPROVEMENT OVER CAPE / ISLANDS IMMEDIATE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED -SHRA. WINDS
BACK OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME BLUSTERY.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING THEREAFTER. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...NOT ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY
WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NJ/NYC/LI AREA WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT
FRAGMENTED WITH ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FORMING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE COAST OF CT/RI AND MA. THIS IS WHERE
BEST DEEP LAYER /ESP LOW LEVEL/ MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE STEADIEST AND MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND
RI WITH LIGHTER RAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER PROVIDENCE AREA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY OF MA. A SEPARATE BUT LIGHTER
BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN MA.

AFTER 12Z THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE RAPIDLY
COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C BY DAYS END! THIS
WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE COLUMN
BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
CAP/LID ON CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING THEREAFTER. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...NOT ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY
WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NJ/NYC/LI AREA WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT
FRAGMENTED WITH ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FORMING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE COAST OF CT/RI AND MA. THIS IS WHERE
BEST DEEP LAYER /ESP LOW LEVEL/ MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE STEADIEST AND MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND
RI WITH LIGHTER RAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER PROVIDENCE AREA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY OF MA. A SEPARATE BUT LIGHTER
BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN MA.

AFTER 12Z THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE RAPIDLY
COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C BY DAYS END! THIS
WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE COLUMN
BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
CAP/LID ON CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING THEREAFTER. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...NOT ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY
WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NJ/NYC/LI AREA WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT
FRAGMENTED WITH ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FORMING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE COAST OF CT/RI AND MA. THIS IS WHERE
BEST DEEP LAYER /ESP LOW LEVEL/ MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE STEADIEST AND MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND
RI WITH LIGHTER RAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER PROVIDENCE AREA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY OF MA. A SEPARATE BUT LIGHTER
BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN MA.

AFTER 12Z THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE RAPIDLY
COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C BY DAYS END! THIS
WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE COLUMN
BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
CAP/LID ON CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING THEREAFTER. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...NOT ANTICIPATING TO BE A WASHOUT. COULD BE WARM AND MUGGY
WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK...AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POTENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NJ/NYC/LI AREA WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT
FRAGMENTED WITH ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FORMING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND
THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE COAST OF CT/RI AND MA. THIS IS WHERE
BEST DEEP LAYER /ESP LOW LEVEL/ MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE STEADIEST AND MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND
RI WITH LIGHTER RAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER PROVIDENCE AREA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY OF MA. A SEPARATE BUT LIGHTER
BAND OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN MA.

AFTER 12Z THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY ERODING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH VORTEX SWIRLING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE RAPIDLY
COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -24C BY DAYS END! THIS
WILL PROVIDE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE COLUMN
BECOMES FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
CAP/LID ON CONVECTION. THUS OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EXPECTING A PLESANT DRY AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

*** NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ***

TONIGHT...

OTHER THAN A SPOT EVENING SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING TO -4C TO -6C BY
12Z SAT! THESE VALUES ARE -3 SD BELOW CLIMO! MORE TYPICAL OF A FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA WILL LIKELY APPROACH
FREEZING. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA. TRICKY
FORECAST AS PGRAD MAY PRECLUDE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING...YIELDING
TEMPS NOT AS COLD AND PRECLUDING A FROST FORMING AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUSLY COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH UNCERTAINTY ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS.

AS FOR TEMPS...MANY LOCATIONS WILL FALL WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF RECORD
LOW VALUES. NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...

A CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND
ASSOCIATED VORTEX MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THE AREA YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON. A BIT BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
 - SHOWERS MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY N/W...NOT A WASHOUT!
 - MUGGY AND DRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY PREVAILING FOR MIDWEEK
 - A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONTINUANCE OF A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CHALLENGES IN OBTAINING CONFIDENCE WITH THE WEAKER MARITIME FLOW AND
OVERALL FLAT-FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS INTERPRETING AND ANTICIPATING
CONVECTION. BUT THE PATTERN ECHOES SOME SIMILARITY TO EARLY MAY WITH
THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND WET-WEATHER HELD N BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CUTOFF RETROGRADING LOW
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREAKING IT ALL OUT BELOW.

WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND BENEATH INFLUENTIAL
BERMUDA HIGH WITH BREEZY SW-FLOW ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE.

AS WE GO INTO MEMORIAL DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT HOLD
UP. NOT A WASHOUT. ENHANCING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH.
THINK THIS WILL INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA
KEEPING THE SW WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR-BELT FLOW TO THE N/W. ITS LEADING
EDGE WARM-FRONT WITH A COLLOCATED CONVERGENT NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET
IS THE FOCUS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FORCING THE BETTER OF WHICH IS
CLOSER TO FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER LIFT WITH THE
OPEN-WAVE IMPULSE TO THE W. SO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE AND EVALUATING
CIPS ANALOGS...CONFIDENCE IS THAT BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
N/W. NOT SURE ON TIMING BUT THINKING LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WONDER WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ISSUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MARITIME STRATUS/FOG.

WITH A PREVALENT RIDGE AGAINST THE VORTEX OVER N CANADA...FEEL THE
CONVERGENT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES BECOME
STRETCHED REMAINS N. S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR
WITH MUGGY YET DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER WET-WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN N
AND W FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GAINED PER CIPS ANALOGS
BUT CONVECTION IS A TRICKY BEAST. CAN NOT RULE OUT EVOLUTION OF ANY
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED N AND W TO EVOLVE S AND E WITH THE STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH PERHAPS ERODING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. FAVOR THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF BLEND OVER THE GFS.

BY LATE WEEK...RIDGE POTENTIALLY ERODES WITH THE RETROGRADGING CUT-
OFF LOW. FLAT-FLOW REGIME PREVAILING? PERHAPS MARITIME-CONVERGENT
FLOW REMAINS N KEEPING US BENEATH A ZONE OF DRY AIR / SUBSIDENCE?
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST
TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR. BREEZY SW-WINDS. CIGS LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES
MAINLY TO THE N AND W. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERHAPS IFR-LIFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -SHRA CHANCES N AND W. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR-LIFR
MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY IN GUSTS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY BY MID
MORNING.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. GOOD VSBY.

SAT...WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 EARLY BECOMES
WSW 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND ALONG
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. LOOKING AT WAVES POTENTIALLY BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH COULD POTENTIALLY
YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002-003.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
159 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. THEN A
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN
RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY BUT A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL FGEN RAIN BAND COMING ACROSS LI/LI SOUND...COASTAL CT
AND RI AT 2 AM...LIFTING NE AND WILL TRACK INTO INTERIOR RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF BOSTON. STEADIEST RAINS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
 - FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING
 - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
 - BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE
 - COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NW FLOW REARWARD OF THE PIVOTING VORTEX THRU N NEW ENGLAND
WILL USHER AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS S ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OVER N/W PORTIONS OF MA. BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING
THAT THE BREEZY NW-FLOW COULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS /SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OF
NEW ENGLAND. COOL AND DRY FOR SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH
RETURN S-FLOW.

BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-
ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-
STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-
PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OF
WARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSES
EJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/W
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEX
PREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUS
UNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOW
WOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING
ACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY NW-WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BREEZY NW-WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW
INTO SUNDAY AND REMAINING BRISK WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. LOOKING AT
WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED BREEZY SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS
OF 5-FEET MAY REMAIN ON THE S/SE-WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220559
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
159 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. THEN A
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND MAYBE EVEN
RECORD- BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY BUT A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL FGEN RAIN BAND COMING ACROSS LI/LI SOUND...COASTAL CT
AND RI AT 2 AM...LIFTING NE AND WILL TRACK INTO INTERIOR RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF BOSTON. STEADIEST RAINS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THRU 12Z. PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
 - FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING
 - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
 - BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE
 - COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NW FLOW REARWARD OF THE PIVOTING VORTEX THRU N NEW ENGLAND
WILL USHER AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS S ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OVER N/W PORTIONS OF MA. BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING
THAT THE BREEZY NW-FLOW COULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS /SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OF
NEW ENGLAND. COOL AND DRY FOR SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH
RETURN S-FLOW.

BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-
ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-
STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-
PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OF
WARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSES
EJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/W
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEX
PREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUS
UNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOW
WOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING
ACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...RAIN SHIELD TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CT...SRN HALF OF RI AND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA THRU 12Z...THEN OFFSHORE. MVFR WITHIN THIS AREA
ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF BRIEF IFR. RAIN MAINLY LIGHT. VFR ELSEWHERE.
THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 12Z AS RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW RISK OF A
SPOT SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...WNW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT IN GUSTS. SPOT SHOWER
POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z OR SO. OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN GUSTS. VFR AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAIL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. BREEZY NW-WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BREEZY NW-WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY VEERING SW
INTO SUNDAY AND REMAINING BRISK WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. LOOKING AT
WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONTINUED BREEZY SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVES IN EXCESS
OF 5-FEET MAY REMAIN ON THE S/SE-WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1049 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND
MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
 - FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING
 - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
 - BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE
 - COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NW FLOW REARWARD OF THE PIVOTING VORTEX THRU N NEW ENGLAND
WILL USHER AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS S ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OVER N/W PORTIONS OF MA. BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING
THAT THE BREEZY NW-FLOW COULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS /SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OF
NEW ENGLAND. COOL AND DRY FOR SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH
RETURN S-FLOW.

BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-
ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-
STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-
PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OF
WARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSES
EJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/W
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEX
PREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUS
UNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOW
WOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING
ACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR AT ACK/MVY AND POSSIBLY PERIODS
OF MVFR AT HYA/FMH. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN AN AREA OF RAIN WHICH
WILL MOVE IN OFF THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z. HEAVIEST
ALONG THE ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...MORNING -RA EXITS SE MA. DRY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCT -SHRA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL IN MORE
ROBUST SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA. OVERALL VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.  BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/FOG.

SUN AND MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS START VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AS STRATUS MOVES OFF THE E COAST.

TUE..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. THIS
BRINGS ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT OUT OF THE S ON SAT
NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. E WINDS ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
RETURN TO S WINDS EARLY TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.  LATE TUE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW.  CONDITIONS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1049 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND
MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - UNSEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY
 - FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING
 - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
 - BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY...A WET-WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE
 - COULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

*/ DISCUSSION...

CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NW FLOW REARWARD OF THE PIVOTING VORTEX THRU N NEW ENGLAND
WILL USHER AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS S ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT
OVER N/W PORTIONS OF MA. BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING
THAT THE BREEZY NW-FLOW COULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
COLD TEMPERATURES. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS /SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S OF
NEW ENGLAND. COOL AND DRY FOR SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH
RETURN S-FLOW.

BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY AM LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. PACIFIC-
ORIGIN IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE W-HALF OF THE CONUS INVOKE DOWN-
STREAM RIDGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BERMUDA HIGH REAFFIRMS ROUND THE W-
PERIPHERY WHICH SW-FLOW PREVAILS. THE WARM-FRONTAL LEADING EDGE OF
WARM-MOIST AIR WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER AS PACIFIC IMPULSES
EJECT E THROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALLOWING FOR BROADSCALE LIFT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY - TUESDAY. FEEL BETTER CHANCES ARE N/W
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW / DRY AIR AND TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A FLAT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES PREVAIL. CONSIDERING THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH AND A VORTEX
PREVAILING ACROSS CANADA...MAY BE DEALING WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS THE WARM-MOIST FLOW IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE CONUS
UNDERGOING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY AS ANY WOBBLE IN THE FLOW PATTERN
BETWEEN THE VORTEX N AND THE BERMUDA HIGH S WOULD MODIFY THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. GFS SUGGESTS A +1 SD OF H925 TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. IF +2 IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAT THE CONVERGENT FLOW
WOULD BE N AND W WITH S NEW ENGLAND WARMER AND DRY BENEATH THE
RIDGE. WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND...WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. ECHOING THE POINT MADE BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COULD FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF UPSTREAM MCS/S. CONTINUED SIGNALS OF A CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING
ACROSS THE NW-ATLANTIC. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR AT ACK/MVY AND POSSIBLY PERIODS
OF MVFR AT HYA/FMH. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN AN AREA OF RAIN WHICH
WILL MOVE IN OFF THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z. HEAVIEST
ALONG THE ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...MORNING -RA EXITS SE MA. DRY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCT -SHRA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL IN MORE
ROBUST SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA. OVERALL VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.  BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/FOG.

SUN AND MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS START VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AS STRATUS MOVES OFF THE E COAST.

TUE..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. THIS
BRINGS ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT OUT OF THE S ON SAT
NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. E WINDS ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
RETURN TO S WINDS EARLY TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.  LATE TUE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW.  CONDITIONS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROST AND
MAYBE EVEN RECORD-BREAKING COLD...IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. WARMER BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER BID/MVY AND ACK LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z OKX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE ANY RAINFALL
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THIS AREA. EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SATURATE AND RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...12Z ECMWF/18Z RUNS OF GFS AND NAM/21Z SREF
AND 12Z NMM AND ARW ALL BRING NORTHWEST PORTION OF RAIN SHIELD
INTO THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE 06Z-12Z...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
STEADIER RAIN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. AT 00Z RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
NONETHELESS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS THEME WITH BULK OF RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN NORTHWARD INTO
PROVIDENCE- BOSTON CORRIDOR. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ON
TRACK AS WELL...THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SPAWN A LATE
SEASON COASTAL LOW WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THAT WILL
TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

21/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STEADY
RAINFALL WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND PORTIONS OF RI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAR WEST THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT. THE 09Z SREF IS THE FARTHEST
WEST...WITH THE 12Z NAM THE FARTHEST EAST. STAYED WITH A MORE
MODERATE APPROACH...AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
SINCE THIS WILL BE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...TIMING OF THE
DYNAMIC COMPONENTS COMING TOGETHER WILL BE CRUCIAL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS ASPECT OF THIS STORM CLOSELY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

A 3-PART DAY WITH MORNING RAINS LIKELY OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA...POSSIBLY NORTHWARD TO BOSTON. DRIER WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MORE SUNSHINE...BRIEFLY DEVELOPS MID TO LATE MORNING AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO
MEAN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE BIG QUESTION WHICH REMAINS TO
BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE 10 KFT. THUS CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A RISK IN
THE STRONGER CELLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONFIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THAT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT FROST ADVISORIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA...AGAIN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THERE IS STILL AN ISSUE WITH WINDS. STILL EXPECTING A STEADY
NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER
MIXED...AND PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN SAT WITH WARM FRONT
* BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUN AND MON
* COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

14.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPITE OF THE
FACT THERE IS A TREND FROM A VERY AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS TO A RATHER
AMPLIFIED WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  IN ESSENCE A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS RIDGE THEN
BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED BUT ALSO RATHER ACUTE AS AN UPPER LVL
SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA.  THIS
CREATES A BLOCKED FLOW REGIME WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR NEW ENGLAND UNTIL A COLDER CANADIAN WAVE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN THERE IS FAIR
AGREEMENT HERE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF LONG TERM OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
WILL WORK AS A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THIS PERIOD IS MARKED BY THE SLOW PASSAGE OF
A SFC WARM FRONT FROM THE SW. AS THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
PHASES WITH THE CUTOFF TO THE E...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW
SOMEWHERE INVOF SRN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. TYPICAL SETUP HERE...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
YIELDING PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
MAY NORMALS. ABOVE THIS WARM FRONT...REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
OF ABOUT 6.0+ C/KM ALSO YIELD NEARLY 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE
PER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES. THEREFORE...DECENT SETUP FOR WARM
FRONTAL INSTABILITY SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MODEST SHEAR PROFILES AS
WELL...TYPICAL IN THESE WARM FRONTAL SETUPS. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THREAT FOR T- STORMS ALONG WITH SHOWERS UNTIL
DRY HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE FORCES THE F-GEN AXES
OFFSHORE. ONE STICKING POINT WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A REMNANT
MCS MOVING THROUGH IN THE MORNING...WHICH COULD PUT A DAMPER ON
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IF THINGS DOWN SCOUR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE...BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS COULD SEE HIGHS APPROACHING THE 80S.

SUN INTO MON...JUST IN CASE YOU FORGOT THAT WE LIVE IN NEW
ENGLAND AND IT/S STILL SPRING...WE WILL GET A STARK REMINDER IN
THE FORM OF YET ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE SUN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR TO THE SW THIS FRONT ENDS UP
MAKING IT...BUT ITS LIKELY AT LEAST MOST OF ERN MA/RI AND PORTIONS
OF E CT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE FALLING TEMPS AND SOME MARINE STRATUS.
DRY AIR ALOFT DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE...BUT THERE
IS SOME QUESTION OF HOW MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GIVEN
THE DRY PUNCH THAT COMES IN AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BE SOME
AREAS ON SUN THAT MAKE A RUN INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTING THE REMAINING TEMPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON SUN AND MON HIGHS DOWN.

TUE...ROBUST THETA-E RIDGE COINCIDENT WITH PWATS 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WILL SLIDE OVER NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE HOW
MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE LOW LVLS AS THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS PERFECT...RIGHT DURING PEAK
HEATING. AVAILABLE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THIS UNCERTAINTY AS
WELL...KEEPING A MODEST INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WHICH IS KEEPING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOW. THERE IS SHEAR
THOUGH...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS WE
GET CLOSER. IN ANY CASE...THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
YIELD SOME FAIRLY GOOD...ALBEIT BRIEF RAINFALL.

WED...THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN HIGH PRES AND RATHER COOL
AIRMASS PER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD WHERE
TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL. DO ALSO NOTE A
FAIRLY ROBUST PRES GRADIENT ON WED...SO DEPENDING ON
RAINFALL...WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
YET ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR AT ACK/MVY AND POSSIBLY PERIODS
OF MVFR AT HYA/FMH. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN AN AREA OF RAIN WHICH
WILL MOVE IN OFF THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z. HEAVIEST
ALONG THE ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...MORNING -RA EXITS SE MA. DRY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCT -SHRA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL IN MORE
ROBUST SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA. OVERALL VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.  BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/FOG.

SUN AND MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS START VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AS STRATUS MOVES OFF THE E COAST.

TUE..MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. THIS
BRINGS ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD. STEADY RAINFALL GIVES WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN PLACES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT OUT OF THE S ON SAT
NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE.

MON AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. E WINDS ON MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
RETURN TO S WINDS EARLY TUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.  LATE TUE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW.  CONDITIONS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 23RD...

BOSTON - 40 /1967/
HARTFORD - 37 /1976/
PROVIDENCE - 40 /1950/
WORCESTER - 32 /1929/

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...STAFF





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