000
FXUS61 KBOX 182331
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS IN A LINE ROUGHLY FROM NASHUA NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
WESTFIELD MASS. THE BEST PWATS ARE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MORE
IN LINE WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OUT OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THEY ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FLOODING WITH THEM. AS MENTIONED...THERE IS QUITE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NANTUCKET THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS N
MA/S NH...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH
PATCHY FOG. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
SHOWER MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182210
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DROPPING
HARTFORD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT AND ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT
PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THESE AREAS...OR DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY. FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182134
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO NE AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN
LOW PRES PASSES S OF THE WATERS. NE WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25
KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND E OF CAPE
COD WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW PROB OF TSTMS THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON
NANTUCKET SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS THERE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ232-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 182037
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY S ACROSS E
MA/N RI/SE MA AT 20Z AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR. HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS.
NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS N NJ/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WILL KEEP RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE
CT/RI/SE MA AS LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRETTY LIGHT PRES GRAD EXCEPT IN TSTMS
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES S
OF NANTUCKET...BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE FROM S-N AS DEWPTS DROP.
WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR S NH AND N MA AS TEMPS FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...RANGING TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS E
MA/N RI/N CT AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO THE S COAST THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
SEE LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH MAY END IT EARLY ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY REGION.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM TSTMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ALSO
RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR
BANKS.
AS FOR RIVER FLOODING...THE CHARLES AT DOVER REMAINS JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIVER WILL ONLY
SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181941
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ANCHORS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER THU AND FRI
* HIGH PRES S OF SNE BRINGS WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA MAINLY IN WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE CONSENSUS IS WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE NE CONUS
SUNDAY AND SINKING BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...AM
EXPECTING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW HUMID DAYS THROWN IN THERE AS WELL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MAKE WHATEVER
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AND BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST OFF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM...MOIST
AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SW WINDS. WE WILL STILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SINKS S SLOWLY. WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN THE REGION ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
OF A TRIGGER ANY OF THOSE DAYS AND MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF
ANY...QPF SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181818
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
218 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RECEIVED A
REPORT OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN WESTMINSTER MA
/NORTHERN WORCESTER CTY/ FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
AS THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFT S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND HIGHER PWAT/S /ON ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES/...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS STILL RATHER SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COULD SEE
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. BIG
CONCERN WITH IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WED-WED NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS ACROSS N MA/S NH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY S. NOTING BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN SOME STORMS. MAY SEE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S TO CENTRAL/S MA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG S COAST WITH LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA/S NH...PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. MAY SEE SCT TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO START MAINLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY
LINGER ALONG S COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE FROM AROUND
21Z THROUGH 02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA+/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
23Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ009-
011>013-015>021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181329
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
928 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
925 AM UPDATE...
***ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAIN CONCERN HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED
FLOODING***
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WERE IN PLACE AT MID MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME PEEKS OF
SUN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...THERE WAS A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS MAY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS RHODE NORTHERN CT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION.
SO AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181107
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN AT 7 AM AND THIS
WILL LIKELY HOLD OUR TEMPS IN THE M70S TODAY...ABOUT 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS INSTABILITY AND
THUS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH
00Z ECMWF AND 03Z SREF ONLY OFFER 500-1000J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS THAN THE 1500-2000J/KG FROM MON AFTN. DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND
INTERIOR MA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO FIRE ON...HOWEVER NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 21Z-03Z ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE PWATS INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STD
FROM CLIMO. THUS ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN
THE TIMEFRAME HERE 21Z-03Z COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE.
SO DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THE LACK OF SB INSTABILITY
SUGGEST A LOWER RISK TODAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS THINKING LINES UP NICELY WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
WITH JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ERODE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO REMOVE TSTMS THIS MORNING AND CONFINE TO
AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR
VALLEY TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE.
THEN ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY
INTO EVENING. ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180805
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND...YIELDING A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECTING ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF WITH
SUNRISE.
TODAY...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPER COLD POOL WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RENEW.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT...BULK SHEAR IS PRONOUNCED WITH VALUES
OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 0-6 KM...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT INDICATING FAVORABILITY TO LINE RATHER THAN DISCREET
THUNDERSTORMS /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY/. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT INDICATION OF TURNING WITHIN 0-3 KM...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT IS
PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE 0Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING IS INDICATIVE OF A PRIME ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AROUND H9 UP TO H6.
BUT THE OUTCOMES LOOK RATHER MESSY. THE POTENTIAL EARLY INITIATION
CLOSER TO MIDDAY AS INDICATED BY THE 18.0Z WRF AND 18.04Z HRRR/RUC
SUGGEST LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LESS DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...EXPECTING MULTI-CELLULAR AND LINE-ECHO
WAVE PATTERN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINERS UTILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH PERCEPTIBLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.
FEEL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SURELY TO BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...HAZARDOUS FOR MOTORISTS. EVENING
COMMUTE WILL BE UNDER GREATEST THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL APPEND HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 2
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS A WEAK WAVE LIFTS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. CONCERNS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL. LOWS DOWN TO AROUND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OF AROUND 4-6 KFT. SUBSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING THE MIX-
DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. NOT LOOKING AT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WITH RECENT RAINS. DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THU AND FRI...TRENDING WARMER/HUMID THIS WEEKEND
* MAINLY DRY WED NGT THROUGH FRI THEN CHANCE OF TSTMS SAT/SUN/MON
00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER WED...HIGH PRES AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. IN FACT THU COULD BE THE PICK OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OFF WITH COOL MORNING TEMPS IN THE U40S AND L50S BUT
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF
STRONG MID-LATE JUN SUNSHINE.
FRI...A VERY LOW RISK OF AN AFTN/EVENING TSTM AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF WED NGT THROUGH FRI
SHOULD BE DRY.
BY THE WEEKEND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN
BRANCH JET LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN FACT BY SUN AND/OR MON SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY BE PUSHING 90 DEGS AS 00Z ECENS ADVECTS 850
TEMPS OF AROUND +16 INTO THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING INTERIOR VALLEY
TERMINALS NEAR BODIES OF WATER /RIVER VALLEYS/ AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN ATTENTION
FOCUSES ON THE RENEWED +RA/TSRA THREAT BY MIDDAY INTO EVENING.
ANTICIPATE LOW-VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH +RA/TSRA.
VARIABLE WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST...BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANTICIPATING GRADUAL CLEARING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RA/TSRA POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED PROMPTING THE CANCELING OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE A
COLD FRONT SLIDE ALONG WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WHICH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY...BEHIND WHICH WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEPARTING LOW PRES WED OVER GEORGES BANK WILL RESULT IN LEFTOVER NE
SWELLS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BY THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH GOOD VSBY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 180220
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE. SOME RENEWED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WHILE
THE 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING EXHIBITS THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE BROADER SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE CYCLONIC
CONTAINS LITTLE LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL ENERGY...NOR SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. QUIET AND DRY FORECAST INTO MORNING...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO COVER THE BASES.
SO ATTENTION TURNS TO OTHER POTENTIAL THREATS...NAMELY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
11-3.9 SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH OBSCURING MID-HIGH CLOUD. HRRR/RUC HAS
DONE VERY WELL THIS EVENING WITH HANDLING EARLIER THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS. MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TOWARDS MORNING...AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT ACCORDINGLY. LOW STRATUS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE.
ALSO...AM CONCERNED OVER THE ANTECEDENT RAINS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE SHORES. WHILE THE HRRR/RUC DOES NOT FEEL THIS TO
BE THE CASE...WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE DEWPOINT ALLOWING FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE
MA TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172345
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST
MA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MOVING OFF THE COAST.
A FEW OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE MAY WORK THERE
WAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY...AREAL
COVERAGE OF THEM WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD END UP DRY
ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS WITH THE WET GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANY PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS SOMETIME TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172236
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN
CONNECTICUT NORTHWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF PEA TO 3/4 INCH HAIL...BUT HAS BEEN
SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
THE LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND EXIT MOST OF
THE REGION AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL AHEAD OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...SO WE
EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. THEY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
DIMNISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 172039
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING***
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THE
MLCAPE VALUES WERE ONLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SINCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SO FAR...THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MANY THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLING TO ATTAIN SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS DO SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME SEVERE. STILL
THINK THAT THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES LIKE
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW. STRONG SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SO IF WE CAN INCREASE THE CAPES A BIT
MORE IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET A FEW GOOD STORMS GOING.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATE TONIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER RATHER TRICKY FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING SWELL OF AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER AT
DOVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
RIVER WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL AND REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING FROM CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THEM ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER STREAMS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171801
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING***
2 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS
QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TIMING OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ADVANCE EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. TIMING IS STILL TRICKY...BUT ACTIVITY HITS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FIRST AND THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY THIS EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT LOCALLY LOWERED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ENDS
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL ARE BETWEEN
20Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...KJC/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171745
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE/PREFERENCES... UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. BUILDING
HEIGHTS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSRUE OVER THE PLAINS EDGES EAST. EVEN
WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP AROUND
BAFFIN ISLAND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET...AND 70 PERCENT RH LINGERS AT 800-850 MB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING MAX
HEATING. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE 40-60 PCT SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL REACH 800 MB WEDNESDAY AND 800-850 MB THURSDAY.
MIXING THE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WILL SUPPORT MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WIND WEDNESDAY MAY BUFFER ANY
MIXING IN EASTERN MASS AND HOLD TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH
COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171629
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1226 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING***
1225 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEADING EAST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...A POTENT UPPER JET BETWEEN 90 AND 100
KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MARCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 1 PM. THE ACTIVITY WILL FIRST AFFECT
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LAST UNTIL AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR AND IF SOME MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171343
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171338
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
938 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING***
A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIXTURE
OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS
OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THE UPPER JET IS ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 90 TO 100 KNOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAS HIGH AS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVE THE FACT THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT CAPE COMBINED WITH VERY
GOOD WIND FIELDS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.
WE DID NOTICE THAT MANY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THAT MAY ALLOW ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN LESS COMPETITION BETWEEN STORMS. IN FACT...A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS GIVEN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...BUT CAN/T RULE ONE OUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND IF SOME
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS CAN OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 171125
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
CI SHIELD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
LOTS OF MORNING SUNSHINE...WITH SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE KEY AND LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPES
OF 1000+ J/KG WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WX.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING
ON HIGHER DWPTS THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF
MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT
6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170749
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. ONLY REMNANTS ARE A FEW MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. EXPECT THAT THESE TOO WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE WITH TIME THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +13C
TODAY...THIS FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX THESE VALUES DOWN EASILY.
EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
DWPTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES S WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KIND OF
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT RECENT RUNS ARE ALL BEGINNINGTO
CONVERGE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG SBCAPE BY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WITH SUNSHINE /WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY/. NAM IS A BIT MORE ROBUST HERE BUT IS KEYING ON HIGHER DWPTS
THAN MUCH OF THE MESOSCALE AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS...SO LEANED AWAY
FROM IT/S SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS BECAUSE
DWPTS CLOSER TO THE MID 60S ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1500+ J/KG
INSTEAD. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT ABOUT 6-6.5C/KM ALTHOUGH GFS
HAS STEEPENED THESE SOMEWHAT.
WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AM NOTING UP TO 20-30 KT AND
40-50 KT OF SHEAR AT 0-3 AND 0-6 KM RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ONE MIGHT NORMALLY LOOK
FOR...THE SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED INTO AT
LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS STRUCTURES. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT
D-CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HELD OFF ON HAIL THREAT /ALTHOUGH ITS
NON-ZERO/ DUE TO SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THEIR MAY BE A BIT OF A MID
LVL WARM LAYER LIMITING HAIL CAPE. PWAT VALUES OF 1.0 INCHES PLUS
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MASS FIELDS SAYS THIS FIELD RIGHT AROUND PEAK
HEATING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER UPGRADING THIS WORDING AS NEW MESO-
SCALE GUIDANCE COMES IN AS THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG- SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALLS IN VICINITY OF
CT/RI AND SE MA AS IT PARALLELS UPPER LVL FLOW. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND THEN DIMINISH TO
-SHRA AS THE BL DECOUPLES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER TO THE COAST LINES SO MAY NEED TO WATCH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERLAND. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND
GIVEN THE LIFT THE FRONT PROVIDES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLUMN
MOISTURE. DWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE THE
FRONT...SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE RAIN RAISING SFC MOISTURE.
TUESDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT...AND DWPTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN REBOUND TO
1000+ J/KG...THE QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME BKN CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE WHICH WOULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AS MUCH IF NOT
MORE INSTABILITY THAN MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WELL...40-50 KT FROM 0-6 KM. SPC STILL FOCUSES A SEE TEXT SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WHICH AT LEAST HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
TEMPS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MON...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ALTHOUGH UNDER SUNSHINE COULD REACH CLOSER TO 80+
ESPECIALLY S OF THE STALLED FRONT. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
FRONT...BUT IN NH THE DWPTS WILL BE LOWER FURTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* MORE HUMID NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POLAR JET
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE N BUT BROAD TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE
NE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. GFS AND
ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS MIDWEST RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EWD. GFS BRINGS A PIECE OF THIS HEAT INTO SNE AS IT
IS DEPICTING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GT LAKES INTO NEW ENG...
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROF AND NW
FLOW ACROSS SNE WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT AND HEAT TO THE SW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE LEANED
TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION. THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. THE FRONT AND ANY
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WED MORNING AS
CLEARING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES. THIS CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS REST OF SNE DURING WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NE FLOW AND SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH COOLING SEABREEZES
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EWD EXTENT OF
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM POSSIBLE MCS...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
TEMP FORECAST ALSO UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF WARM
FRONT. WE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY..
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR 20-25 KT AGAIN NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW THE
5-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATER S OF RI/MA TO PERSIST SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME T-STORMS WHICH MAY REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS.
TUESDAY...
A STALLED FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS MAINLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE CHARLES RIVER
AT DOVER AND THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD AND MAY ALTER THE TIMING
OF RIVERS OR EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 400AM.
IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND REMAINS STEADY
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FLOODSTAGE BY MID MORNING.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170536
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
HIGHER DWPTS...POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IS A BIT HIGHER EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AM NOTING WINDS ARE REMAINING ABOVE 5KT AT MANY
OBS SITES SO FOG WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS. OTHERWISE... A BIT MORE MILD AND MUGGY MORNING BUT WITH
SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/T-STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY FORM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY INLAND
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
WET RUNWAYS.
THE STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TO BE AROUND AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE W
AGAIN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS...WITH SOME
STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE S COAST
PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES TUE OUTSIDE OF FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...THIS TIME IT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTLINES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/T-STORM LATE TODAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170010
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
810 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
800 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE PRECIP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED
AND MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG S COAST OF RI/S MA AT 00Z...BUT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP NOTED
OVER NY STATE AND MOST OF PA.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED PRECIP. MAY SEE A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 03Z AS INSTABILITY
MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING IN PATCHY FOG AS DEWPTS
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED REMAINING GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
MOST OF LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 02Z. COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND.
THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST REGION. MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF IFR CIGS AS LOW CLOUDS
MOVE IN OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...BUT
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 800 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162040
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 1 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LEADING
THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN VT/NH MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VT WILL CROSS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES BY 6 PM.
TRAILING SHOWERS MORE PROXIMATE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.
FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL EVENING.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
REGION WEST-EAST 6-9 PM AND EXIT WEST-EAST 7-10 PM.
UPSTREAM RAINFALL FROM THE BROADER NORTHERN AREA HAS TOTALED 0.2
TO 0.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DURING TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS REGION.
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIGNALING BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS
QUEBEC AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NY STATE INTO PA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. GENERAL W-SW FLOW WILL CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO ONLY SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY ABOUT MID WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY W-NW FLOW ALONG WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. NOTING
INCREASING VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS THEIR HANDLING OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT. WENT ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE
FRONT TO THE NW OF THE REGION...WHICH MEANS MODERATING TEMPS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AT THIS POINT.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
SECOND FRONT TENDING TO RUN PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. KEPT CHANCE POPS
GOING. WILL ALSO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO KEPT MENTION OF
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT E LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...SO FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW-SE
TUE NIGHT...THOUGH MAY LINGER INTO WED ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OUT OF NY STATE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL START OFF
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR WED...THEN WILL
REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY...SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO S-SW WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
FRI AS WEAK TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WEAKENS. MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LL MOISTURE TO KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
IN PLACE AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES...COULD SEE WIDELY SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MAY SEE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH. AGAIN...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.
TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. N-NE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED
ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD ALONG WITH MARGINAL 5 FOOT
SEAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 330 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB/EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...WTB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 162000
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND STALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 1 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LEADING
THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE ADIRONDAKS AND
NORTHERN VT/NH MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VT WILL CROSS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES BY 6 PM.
TRAILING SHOWERS MORE PROXIMATE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.
FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL EVENING.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
REGION WEST-EAST 6-9 PM AND EXIT WEST-EAST 7-10 PM.
UPSTREAM RAINFALL FROM THE BROADER NORTHERN AREA HAS TOTALED 0.2
TO 0.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HAS BEEN
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.
OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG
PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS
A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105
KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TDURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY.
STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT
-1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT
850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG
TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES
ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.
TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE
AREAS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD.
MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE
WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A
FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING
WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 330 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK
RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161812
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT DIMINISHING SUN...BUT EVEN WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA AND WILL
PROGRESS EAST. FORWARD PROGRESS WOULD BRING THEM TO THE CT VALLEY
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM/CENTRAL HILLS 3 TO 430 PM/COASTAL PLAIN 430 TO
6 PM.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING FROM A
MID LEVEL DECK...ANY NON-TRACE AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE WEST.
THESE WOULD MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING
LATE MORNING TEMPS 65 WEST TO 75 EAST. TWIN CONCERNS THAT MAX
TEMP FORECAST BE COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE WEST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TOO COOL IN THE EAST DUE TO SUN. ALY MORNING
RAOB SHOWED 10.5C AT 850 MB AND 6.2C AT 800 MB...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE AT STANDARD ATMOSPHERE. SO A FULLY MIXED MAX TEMP
WOULD BE AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S AND SUN IN THE EAST SHOULD FULLY REALIZE THIS VALUE. MAX
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TWO CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.
MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG. NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.
TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS PCPN COULD CHANGE
THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING WATERS.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 230 PM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY ABOVE FS AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FS AND FALLING
IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FS AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161435
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT DIMINISHING SUN...BUT EVEN WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA AND WILL
PROGRESS EAST. FORWARD PROGRESS WOULD BRING THEM TO THE CT VALLEY
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM/CENTRAL HILLS 3 TO 430 PM/COASTAL PLAIN 430 TO
6 PM.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING FROM A
MID LEVEL DECK...ANY NON-TRACE AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE WEST.
THESE WOULD MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING
LATE MORNING TEMPS 65 WEST TO 75 EAST. TWIN CONCERNS THAT MAX
TEMP FORECAST BE COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE WEST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TOO COOL IN THE EAST DUE TO SUN. ALY MORNING
RAOB SHOWED 10.5C AT 850 MB AND 6.2C AT 800 MB...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE AT STANDARD ATMOSPHERE. SO A FULLY MIXED MAX TEMP
WOULD BE AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S AND SUN IN THE EAST SHOULD FULLY REALIZE THIS VALUE. MAX
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TWO CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.
MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG. NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.
MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 1030 AM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY ABOVE FS AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD ABOVE FS BUT NEAR AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FS AND FALLING
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD AT FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FS AND FALLING
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161102
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THICKER
CLOUDS STILL TO THE WEST SO EXPECT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING MOCLDY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT AFTER
18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.
GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.
MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG. NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.
MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160757
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT
MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CI AND MID LVL ALTO-CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FROM THE W THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDING LOW PRES. THIS LOW IS THE RESULT
OF ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH WAS AFFECTING
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER FROM THE W...EXPECT
ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS BY ABOUT MID
DAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT
AFTER 18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.
GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.
MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG. NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.
MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160751
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL
DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CI AND MID LVL ALTO-CU IS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER FROM THE W THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDING LOW PRES. THIS LOW IS THE RESULT
OF ENERGY LEFT OVER FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH WAS AFFECTING
THE OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.
WITH CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER FROM THE W...EXPECT
ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY TO GIVE WAY TO BKN-OVC CIGS BY ABOUT MID
DAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE W...EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY TO SHIFT TO THE N...BUT WITH THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
UNDERWAY...GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE
UNABLE TO REALIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WAINS
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT
AFTER 18Z...SOME -SHRA /POSSIBLY FROM WEAKENED CONVECTION/ TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS IN THE W AND GRADUALLY EXPAND E AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT. WILL INCLUDE SOME ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT /MORE ON THIS BELOW/.
GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...EXPECT A AT LEAST SOME SUN TO START
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY. NOT A WASHOUT...BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE DAMP GROUND BEFORE SUNSET. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.
MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.
MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG. NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.
TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVE
DRAIN.
MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.
FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
LATE DAY MONDAY TIMEFRAMES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NOT EXPECTING
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS FELL LAST WEEK...BUT SOME
ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER URBAN FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 430 AM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD - EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE MID MORN
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160539
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AM NOTING SOME FEW-SCT CI RUNNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE W.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THIS CI HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED A BIT DESPITE SOME
DECOUPLING NOTED IN THE OBS. GIVEN THIS LITTLE LAYER OF MOISTURE
WILL ONLY BECOME MORE DENSE PROGRESSIVELY...SLOWED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DECREASE A BIT MORE STILL FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING MOSTLY 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW 60S IN
THE METROS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASE THE
OVERNIGHT SKY COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC. THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS THAT KEEPS THE MORNING DRY AND STARTS SHOWERS IN THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AS EXHIBITED IN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...SO HAVE KEPT JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER...DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES
EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD H5 TROUGHING ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS PATTERN STARTS TO RELAX...WITH MORE BROAD ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES KEEPING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG WITHOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP THE
ATLANTIC OR GULF. SO...EXPECT WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ALONG IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM MORE ROBUSTLY THAN THE GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT THE EC AND
GFS BOTH HAVE THIS FURTHER OFFSHORE. BEYOND THIS...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING HIGH PRES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
DEVELOPING BROAD ZONAL FLOW...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WED-THU.
LATE NEXT WEEK...SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SW SURFACE FLOW. FOR NOW...KEPT IT DRY BUT DID BRING IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE WPC
GUIDANCE AND EC/ECENS...THOUGH MOST MODELS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD
AGREEMENT.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
SHOULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHOT OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER.
KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO MON EVENING. WILL BE A WARM
DAY ON THE SW FLOW WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...MILDEST IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY...BUT HOLDING IN THE 70S ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE COOL
ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LITTLE
DIGGING OF ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH...MAY STILL SEE ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY. ALSO NOTING WAVE DEVELOPING ON THIS FRONT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...THOUGH MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE...THEN THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE S COAST. HIGHS FALL BACK A
FEW DEGS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXIT TUE NIGHT.
THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...LARGE HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH ON WED ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL CAUSE A PRETTY GOOD NE FLOW TO KICK IN. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM AROUND PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY BUT COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND THEN
POSITION OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL START TO
PUMP MILDER AIR UP THE COAST ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SO MAY SEE
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT REAL GOOD LIFT IN PLACE SO
DID NOT MENTION THUNDER FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM W TO
E IN -SHRA BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVEDRAIN.
MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF -SHRA THIS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. LOW PROB FOR
ISOLD TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WNW WINDS 10-15 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. USED THE SLOWER SWANNAM WAVE HEIGHTS...WHICH BRINGS SEAS
UP TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY TO 15-20 KT BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
MAINLY ON WED. SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA...SEE BELOW
FOR A LISTING OF THESE. ALL OF THE AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDING.
RIVER LEVELS AT A FEW SITES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE DURING SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER. SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS WERE...AND
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 730 PM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 160154
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DESPITE SKC
CONDITIONS WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THIS EVENING
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS UP SOMEWHAT. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINS UP
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL A CHANCE TO DECOUPLE WITH RAD COOLING
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC. THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS THAT KEEPS THE MORNING DRY AND STARTS SHOWERS IN THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AS EXHIBITED IN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...SO HAVE KEPT JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER...DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES
EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD H5 TROUGHING ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS PATTERN STARTS TO RELAX...WITH MORE BROAD ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES KEEPING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG WITHOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAP THE
ATLANTIC OR GULF. SO...EXPECT WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ALONG IN
THE UPPER FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM MORE ROBUSTLY THAN THE GGEM AND ECMWF...BUT THE EC AND
GFS BOTH HAVE THIS FURTHER OFFSHORE. BEYOND THIS...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING HIGH PRES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
DEVELOPING BROAD ZONAL FLOW...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WED-THU.
LATE NEXT WEEK...SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLE DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SW SURFACE FLOW. FOR NOW...KEPT IT DRY BUT DID BRING IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE WPC
GUIDANCE AND EC/ECENS...THOUGH MOST MODELS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD
AGREEMENT.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
SHOULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHOT OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NW AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER.
KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO MON EVENING. WILL BE A WARM
DAY ON THE SW FLOW WITH HIGHS AROUND 80...MILDEST IN THE LOWER CT
VALLEY...BUT HOLDING IN THE 70S ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE COOL
ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LITTLE
DIGGING OF ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH...MAY STILL SEE ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY EARLY. ALSO NOTING WAVE DEVELOPING ON THIS FRONT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...THOUGH MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE...THEN THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE S COAST. HIGHS FALL BACK A
FEW DEGS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL EXIT TUE NIGHT.
THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...LARGE HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH ON WED ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL CAUSE A PRETTY GOOD NE FLOW TO KICK IN. MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM AROUND PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY BUT COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...RUNNING A GOOD 5 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND THEN
POSITION OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL START TO
PUMP MILDER AIR UP THE COAST ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SO MAY SEE
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT REAL GOOD LIFT IN PLACE SO
DID NOT MENTION THUNDER FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY
PRONE AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCT -SHRA DURING THE AFTN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SCT
-SHRA. OTHERWISE...VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. LOW PROB FOR
ISOLD TSTMS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WNW WINDS 10-15 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. USED THE SLOWER SWANNAM WAVE HEIGHTS...WHICH BRINGS SEAS
UP TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY TO 15-20 KT BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KT AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
MAINLY ON WED. SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA...SEE BELOW
FOR A LISTING OF THESE. ALL OF THE AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDING.
RIVER LEVELS AT A FEW SITES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE DURING SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER. SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS WERE...AND
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 730 PM...
IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM
IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER
IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON
IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
HYDROLOGY...
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