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000
FXUS61 KBOX 032356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

SNOW IS MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 2 MILES...IN SOME
CASES BELOW 1 MILE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS. CONTINUED NON DIURNAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

00Z TAF UPDATE...

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 00Z...AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS BY 01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WIDESPREAD
ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY INCLUDING CT VALLEY AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER
SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

SNOW IS MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 2 MILES...IN SOME
CASES BELOW 1 MILE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS. CONTINUED NON DIURNAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

00Z TAF UPDATE...

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 00Z...AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS BY 01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WIDESPREAD
ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY INCLUDING CT VALLEY AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER
SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

SNOW IS MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 2 MILES...IN SOME
CASES BELOW 1 MILE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS. CONTINUED NON DIURNAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

00Z TAF UPDATE...

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 00Z...AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS BY 01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WIDESPREAD
ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY INCLUDING CT VALLEY AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER
SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032356
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
656 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

SNOW IS MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN LOWERING TO BELOW 2 MILES...IN SOME
CASES BELOW 1 MILE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS. CONTINUED NON DIURNAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

00Z TAF UPDATE...

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW HAD ALREADY
OVERSPREAD INTERIOR TERMINALS BY 00Z...AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
EASTERN TERMINALS BY 01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WIDESPREAD
ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING IS CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY INCLUDING CT VALLEY AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
WINDS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER
SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 7 PM...
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWED LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE TREND ON THIS LEADING EDGE WOULD BRING
IT THROUGH THE CT VALLEY BY 5 PM AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 7
PM. DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY ERODE THE LEADING EDGE
AND SLOW THE ONSET A LITTLE. BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM THROUGH 8 PM. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


TONIGHT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER SEAS
WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 032131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 7 PM...
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWED LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE TREND ON THIS LEADING EDGE WOULD BRING
IT THROUGH THE CT VALLEY BY 5 PM AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 7
PM. DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY ERODE THE LEADING EDGE
AND SLOW THE ONSET A LITTLE. BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE CHANGING
SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK A COLD PATTERN REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG TERM TIMEFRAME.
ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME PATTERN.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH
CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN RI/BI
AND SOUTH COASTAL MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...12Z RUNS SHOWING
IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL GET INTO
OUR AREA TO SOME EXTENT. FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA ON THURSDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WITH RESPECT TO ACCUMULATING SNOWS VS. MORE MINIMAL SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER DURING
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN RI/FAR SOUTHEAST MA...IN THE WATCH AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY EVENING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...BUT ANY SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEH
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT TEENS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS OF THE
FAR INTERIOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SW OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED...15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE 30S SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS FROM
THE SW.

A WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN...
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. MAY SEE PRECIP MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE
DRY W-NW FLOW.

TUESDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS OUR AREA FAIRLY DRY...OR IF WE ARE CLIPPED BY A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM THROUGH 8 PM. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERALL...LOCLAIZED CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-
VLIFR ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN THROUGH THU MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


TONIGHT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER SEAS
WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...

NW WIND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LASTING MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY BUT THEN BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS DURING SAT.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLNAD WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY
COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
OBSERVATIONS AT 3 PM SHOWED LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE TREND ON THIS LEADING EDGE WOULD BRING
IT THROUGH THE CT VALLEY BY 5 PM AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 7
PM. DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY ERODE THE LEADING EDGE
AND SLOW THE ONSET A LITTLE. BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

TONIGHT...
HEAVIER PCPN LAGS THE LEADING EDGE BY 2-3 HOURS. EXPECT A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW TO LEAVE SOME ACCUMULATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT. QPF BASED ON HPC PROJECTIONS COMBINES WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TO SUGGEST 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION...HEAVIEST IN THE
WEST. OBSERVATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL PA POINT
TO ADVANCING WARMER AIR ALOFT OF THE SURFACE LAYER. MODEL DATA
SHOWS A 40 KNOT JET FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A 50 KNOT COASTAL JET
AT 925 MB MOVING OVER THE REGION AND SUPPORTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT. WITH NO COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE WE SHOULD EXPECT SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF CHANGING PTYPE OVERNIGHT.

WE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. BUFKIT SHOWS TEMPS IN THE
30S OVERNIGHT AROUND 925 MB AND A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO THE
SURFACE. SO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO NO HIGHER THAN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING.
THAT SHOULD END MOST OF THE PCPN. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL
LINE UP WITH THAT UPPER FLOW...STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND PLACES US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERATE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE ON THE FRONT PUSHING PCPN NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH WILL
DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. SO ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN WOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SNOW.

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE SOUTH COAST OR EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS...AND CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH.

BASED QPF ON HPC VALUES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMPS...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ALL THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE KENT COUNTY RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM THROUGH 8 PM. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE S COAST EVEN AS RAIN
SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE MASS PIKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THU
AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST INTO THU
EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


TONIGHT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGHER SEAS
WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT VALUES ON THE EXPOSED WATERS BY LATE NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES BUT MAY BE DROPPED ON SOME NEAR SHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND PULL COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE WATERS...GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL
LINGER AROUND 5-6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY... NW WINDS INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT
BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU
NIGHT MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH THICKER SKY COVER STARTING TO CREEP
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GROUND OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW
ARE STILL BACK OVER EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA CURRENTLY. STILL
LOOKING AT ROUGHLY AN ARRIVAL TIME IN THE BERKSHIRES AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF 4-5 PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE INITIAL SNOW TO
EVAPORATE UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN UP.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND CHH SHOW MIXING TO 900-925 MB. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 22Z /5PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY BUT LIGHT.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 21Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH THICKER SKY COVER STARTING TO CREEP
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GROUND OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW
ARE STILL BACK OVER EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA CURRENTLY. STILL
LOOKING AT ROUGHLY AN ARRIVAL TIME IN THE BERKSHIRES AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF 4-5 PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE INITIAL SNOW TO
EVAPORATE UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN UP.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND CHH SHOW MIXING TO 900-925 MB. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

18Z TAF UPDATE... NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 22Z /5PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY BUT LIGHT.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 21Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER HILLS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION WITH THICKER SKY COVER OVER NY/PA. NATIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN PA WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SNOW WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS /EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES...CT RIVER VALLEY/ ROUGHLY 4-5 PM AND TO EASTERN
MASS 6-7 PM. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 WILL
OFFER A 15-20 DEGREE TEMP-DEWPT DIFFERENCE...SO ANY INITIAL AREAS
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TOWARD SLOWING
ONSET. WE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT END UP THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND CHH SHOW MIXING TO 900-925 MB. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 22Z /5PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 21Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER
VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME
ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION WITH THICKER SKY COVER OVER NY/PA. NATIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN PA WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SNOW WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS /EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES...CT RIVER VALLEY/ ROUGHLY 4-5 PM AND TO EASTERN
MASS 6-7 PM. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 WILL
OFFER A 15-20 DEGREE TEMP-DEWPT DIFFERENCE...SO ANY INITIAL AREAS
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TOWARD SLOWING
ONSET. WE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT END UP THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND CHH SHOW MIXING TO 900-925 MB. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 22Z /5PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 21Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER
VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME
ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION WITH THICKER SKY COVER OVER NY/PA. NATIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN PA WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN
MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SNOW WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS /EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES...CT RIVER VALLEY/ ROUGHLY 4-5 PM AND TO EASTERN
MASS 6-7 PM. DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 WILL
OFFER A 15-20 DEGREE TEMP-DEWPT DIFFERENCE...SO ANY INITIAL AREAS
OF SNOW WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE. THIS WILL ALSO WORK TOWARD SLOWING
ONSET. WE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT END UP THE SAME
PLACE TONIGHT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND CHH SHOW MIXING TO 900-925 MB. TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 22Z /5PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 21Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER
VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME
ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO TEMPS/DWPTS. AT ISSUE IS THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT WHICH HAS FINALLY SLACKENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
AREA THE TYPICALLY RADIATORS /LOOKING AT YOU...OWD...ORE...TAN
ETC/ HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH DWPTS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO TEMPS/DWPTS. AT ISSUE IS THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT WHICH HAS FINALLY SLACKENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
AREA THE TYPICALLY RADIATORS /LOOKING AT YOU...OWD...ORE...TAN
ETC/ HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH DWPTS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO TEMPS/DWPTS. AT ISSUE IS THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT WHICH HAS FINALLY SLACKENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
AREA THE TYPICALLY RADIATORS /LOOKING AT YOU...OWD...ORE...TAN
ETC/ HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH DWPTS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PRIMARY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO TEMPS/DWPTS. AT ISSUE IS THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT WHICH HAS FINALLY SLACKENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
AREA THE TYPICALLY RADIATORS /LOOKING AT YOU...OWD...ORE...TAN
ETC/ HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH DWPTS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z TAF UPDATE...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
BUT LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

 ** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY LIGHT
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 031012
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
THE COMBINATION OF REMAINING SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND SLOW
INCREASE IN OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION...NOTING MAINLY UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION
AS OF 3 AM. THANKFULLY...IT SEEMS THAT THE RECENT MAV/MET MOS HAVE
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SO TEMPS...INCLUDING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
BLEND OF LATEST MOS TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE
DESPITE THE SUNNY START...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE SPILLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING CULMINATING IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LOADING THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS TOP DOWN...SO IN SPITE OF THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL SLOW THE EXPECTED MODEL PROGGED
TEMP INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
OF THE RAW 2M TEMPS /WHICH IS COOLER/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRY
WX PREVAILS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

 ** MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT BEGINS LATE TODAY **

HIGHLIGHTS...
 - SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE BY EVENING...1-4 INCHES EXPECTED.
 - SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT.
 - ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...
LOW PRES WILL BE GRADUALLY SLIDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE
LEADING EDGE...COINCIDENT WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ AT H92 SUGGESTS
STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SRN STREAM INITIATING WAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. WITH PWATS
ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES. INITIALLY
THE COLUMN THROUGH ABOUT H8 IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND
TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE OMEGA BEGINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP SHIELD MOVES IN LATE TODAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1+ INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.

GRADUALLY...MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH H92
TEMPS REACHING +4C AND H85 TEMPS +8C AT THE WARMEST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE S COAST. THE WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH FASTER ALOFT THANKS TO THE LLJ AND DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS
THE REGION...SLOWING THE SFC TEMP INCREASES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FIRST TO SLEET...AS LOW LVL SOUNDINGS REMAIN COLD
BENEATH THE INITIAL WARM LAYER...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO FREEZING
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT
RAIN OCCURS FURTHER E AND AT THE COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 2M TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT IT/S LIKELY THAT SOME ICE
ACCRETION WILL OCCUR AS SFC TEMPS AND SNOW REMAINS COLD...SO A
LAYER OF LIGHT ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN IN W MA AND CT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN
SHIFT E WITH TIME. EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL MA/RI AND E CT
BY ABOUT 6PM...THEN SPREAD TO E MA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THAT. IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW...EVEN FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM 10PM THROUGH
EARL MORNING WED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...TO ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED. FOR A TIME...IT WILL BE ALL RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. THEN...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NW AS A
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY ENDING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID MORNING. RECENT TREND IN HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD BE DONE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE S
COAST BY 12Z...BUT WILL TAPER THIS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE AREAS S OF
THE MASS PIKE MAY DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE DRY AIR COMES IN ALOFT FIRST...TRAPPING THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT CONTINUES IN THIS AREA MUCH OF THE
DAY.

PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS...
0.2-0.4 OF THE TOTAL QPF THROUGHOUT WED WILL FALL IN THE REGIME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH WARM AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
QUICKLY ALOFT...LIFTING THE DENDRITE ZONE AWAY FROM THE PEAK
OMEGA...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING THAT 10-12 TO 1
SLR/S ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS SLR/S WILL GET. THEREFORE...SOLID
ADVISORY LVL SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSITION THIS EVENING. MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ADDED LIFT COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS
OF 4+. AS THE WX TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN
THE RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND WARMING 2M
TEMPS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE EXCEPT ON COLD
SFCS...THEREFORE...SWATH OF A TRACE TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES IS EXPECTED...SO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THE TIME IT ENDS.

IMPACTS...
THE SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BEGIN MID-COMMUTE FOR FOLKS IN WRN MA
AND CT. AND TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE COMMUTE FOR AREAS FURTHER
E. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODERATE ACCUMS OCCUR. FOLLOW THAT WITH SOME ICE...AND COLD SFC
MAY DEVELOP A GLAZE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...EXACERBATING THE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. AS THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF
NEW SNOW...SOME ICE...AND LIQUID WATER WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY ON UNCLEARED ROOFS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY. WITH SOME SNOWMELT LIKELY AND RAIN...AREA
DRAINS COULD BECOME CLOGGED...LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LEADING INTO THE COMMUTE TOMORROW.

HEADLINES/FINAL THOUGHTS...
ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID...SO NO PLANS TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE. WILL BE
BREAKING THEM UP INTO A FEW DISCRETE SECTIONS WHERE MORE
SNOW...ICE OR LESS OF EITHER ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT DRIZZLE OR FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED. ONE ISSUE OF NOTE IS IF THE SUN
BREAKS OUT IN PARTS OF NRN MA ESPECIALLY...TEMPS COULD RISE QUITE
RAPIDLY...SO HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SIGNS OF CHANGE WITH THE
CHANGING SEASON...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SIMILAR COLD PATTERN REMAINS
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS LONG
TERM TIMEFRAME. ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THE DRYING OF THE SAME
PATTERN.

NE-SW ELONGATED LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKS E WED NIGHT...BUT WILL STAY
IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THU...THOUGH...SHORT WAVE DIGS IN THIS GENERAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN AND PUSHES E DURING THU. LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE THU/THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WHICH APPEAR TO KEEP MOST OF THEIR
PRECIP N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
HOWEVER.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
KEEP PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.

GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OVERRUNNING RETURNS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N MA TO 0.5 TO 0.8
INCHES FROM N CT/RI/SE MA.

SURFACE REFLECTION/WEAK WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE
SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING WHERE
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED...GENERALLY S OF THE MASS
PIKE.

WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT...THOUGH HOLDING OFF
CONSIDERING TODAY/S HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE. CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E...PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THOUGH ALL DO TEND TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE TEENS
ALONG THE S COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...
KEEPING THE REGION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
FAST FLOW ALOFT ALSO BRINGS WEAK SYSTEMS TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH THESE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.

LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION FRI WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGS BELOW THOUGH NOT CLOSE TO LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS
EXCEPT FOR PROVIDENCE /VERY LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR MARCH 6/.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS REBOUND A
BIT. THEY LOOK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 30S AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W MOVES ACROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY SEE PRECIP
MAY WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES IN THE DRY W-NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH ABOUT 20Z /3PM/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY LIGHT
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM W-E FROM 20Z-01Z. ACCUMS RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
WIDESPREAD ALTHOUGH SOME 4+ IS POSSIBLY IN NW MA. IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN LOWER VSBYS. THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO STRAIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM S-N. SOME ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM
N-S ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LINGER CLOSER TO THE
S COAST EVEN AS RAIN SLOWS AND FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. SOME VFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE DAY FOR TAF SITES N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 05Z IN MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM N-S. WILL VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-VLIFR ACROSS
N CT/RI/SE MA IN PERIODS OF SN/+SN AFTER 06Z-08Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM N-S
DURING THU AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE ALONG S COAST
INTO THU EVENING. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS MOST AREAS. RI/SE MA...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN
LEFTOVER -SN...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. N-NW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT FOR
ALONG THE COAST...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING SEAS AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. S
SWELL ALSO BUILDS...REACHING ABOUT 8-10 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS.

TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE W ESPECIALLY ON THE E COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES AND THE SWELL
WILL LINGER SOME THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

W WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE DURING THU...GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

EXPECT N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...THEN WILL DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS EARLY THU NIGHT
MAINLY FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

NW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN BACK TO SW BUT WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT DURING
SAT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE
BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN ON THE SW WINDS DURING SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030415
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1115 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN
RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1050 PM UPDATE...
THIN BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO CROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AS SEEN ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR. MOVING RATHER QUICKLY IN
THE NW FLOW THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEPT MAYBE ON THE OUTER CAPE WHERE THE BANDS HOLD TOGETHER.
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE AS WINDS DIMINISH.

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
DID NOTE A BRIEF INCREASE AROUND 02Z ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. STILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
03Z. HOWEVER...AT 04Z...NOTING WINDS INLAND WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO
AROUND 10 KT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS HOLDING AT 10-15 KT ACROSS N
MA AROUND ROUTE 2 REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE.

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGS ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS AT 03Z...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AS SKIES BECOME GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY AND N CENTRAL/NE CT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE...WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE EAST...IF WINDS
GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF.
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST
CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
ANTICIPATE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT
ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
OF THE WIND NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING
COLDER AIR TO THE OVER- RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF
0.6-0.7 BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS- PIKE...AN
AVERAGE 0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY
0.3-0.6 EVENT. SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REAR OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT
SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD
BE DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND
ISLANDS WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE.
THERE ARE WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS.
EXACT STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS
ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PREVAILING THRU THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW GUSTS GUSTING TO 20-30 KT THROUGH 05Z-06Z ACROSS E MA
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SCT SHSN ACROSS E COASTAL MA WILL END BY
07Z.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS.
SHRA MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS
WITH WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH
PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HAVE ENDED GALES ON ALL BUT THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVERNIGHT...
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS HIGH PRES PUSHES E.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD END AS WINDS DROP OFF. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
NEAR GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER
THE COLDER WATERS AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO
BECOMING A LOW- RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO
SEA BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030415
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1115 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN
RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1050 PM UPDATE...
THIN BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO CROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AS SEEN ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR. MOVING RATHER QUICKLY IN
THE NW FLOW THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEPT MAYBE ON THE OUTER CAPE WHERE THE BANDS HOLD TOGETHER.
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE AS WINDS DIMINISH.

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
DID NOTE A BRIEF INCREASE AROUND 02Z ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. STILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
03Z. HOWEVER...AT 04Z...NOTING WINDS INLAND WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO
AROUND 10 KT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS HOLDING AT 10-15 KT ACROSS N
MA AROUND ROUTE 2 REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE.

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGS ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS AT 03Z...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AS SKIES BECOME GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY AND N CENTRAL/NE CT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE...WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE EAST...IF WINDS
GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF.
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST
CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
ANTICIPATE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT
ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
OF THE WIND NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING
COLDER AIR TO THE OVER- RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF
0.6-0.7 BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS- PIKE...AN
AVERAGE 0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY
0.3-0.6 EVENT. SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REAR OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT
SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD
BE DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND
ISLANDS WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE.
THERE ARE WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS.
EXACT STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS
ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PREVAILING THRU THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW GUSTS GUSTING TO 20-30 KT THROUGH 05Z-06Z ACROSS E MA
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SCT SHSN ACROSS E COASTAL MA WILL END BY
07Z.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS.
SHRA MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS
WITH WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH
PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HAVE ENDED GALES ON ALL BUT THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVERNIGHT...
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS HIGH PRES PUSHES E.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD END AS WINDS DROP OFF. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
NEAR GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER
THE COLDER WATERS AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO
BECOMING A LOW- RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO
SEA BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 030415
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1115 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN
RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1050 PM UPDATE...
THIN BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO CROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AS SEEN ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR. MOVING RATHER QUICKLY IN
THE NW FLOW THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEPT MAYBE ON THE OUTER CAPE WHERE THE BANDS HOLD TOGETHER.
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE AS WINDS DIMINISH.

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
DID NOTE A BRIEF INCREASE AROUND 02Z ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. STILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
03Z. HOWEVER...AT 04Z...NOTING WINDS INLAND WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO
AROUND 10 KT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS HOLDING AT 10-15 KT ACROSS N
MA AROUND ROUTE 2 REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE.

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGS ABOVE FORECASTED LEVELS AT 03Z...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AS SKIES BECOME GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY AND N CENTRAL/NE CT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE...WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE EAST...IF WINDS
GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF.
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST
CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS
ANTICIPATE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT
ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE
OF THE WIND NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING
COLDER AIR TO THE OVER- RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF
0.6-0.7 BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS- PIKE...AN
AVERAGE 0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY
0.3-0.6 EVENT. SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REAR OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT
SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD
BE DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND
ISLANDS WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE.
THERE ARE WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS.
EXACT STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS
ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PREVAILING THRU THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW GUSTS GUSTING TO 20-30 KT THROUGH 05Z-06Z ACROSS E MA
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SCT SHSN ACROSS E COASTAL MA WILL END BY
07Z.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS.
SHRA MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS
WITH WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH
PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HAVE ENDED GALES ON ALL BUT THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 06Z. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS OVERNIGHT...
BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS HIGH PRES PUSHES E.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD END AS WINDS DROP OFF. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
NEAR GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER
THE COLDER WATERS AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO
BECOMING A LOW- RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO
SEA BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

INITIAL NW-GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCT +SHSN WILL
CONCLUDE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES DIMINISHING. WILL SEE GALE WARNINGS DROP OFF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE
ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

INITIAL NW-GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCT +SHSN WILL
CONCLUDE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES DIMINISHING. WILL SEE GALE WARNINGS DROP OFF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE
ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

INITIAL NW-GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCT +SHSN WILL
CONCLUDE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES DIMINISHING. WILL SEE GALE WARNINGS DROP OFF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE
ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

*/ LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

INITIAL NW-GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCT +SHSN WILL
CONCLUDE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR DEVELOP
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES DIMINISHING. WILL SEE GALE WARNINGS DROP OFF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE
ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THE TEMPS HAVE FELT COOLER. A FEW PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RELAX AS WELL.

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX NEAR
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL





000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
CRISP...COOL...DRY NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WINTRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED WINTER WEATHER OUTCOMES. THURSDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THE TEMPS HAVE FELT COOLER. A FEW PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RELAX AS WELL.

TONIGHT...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANY STRAO-CU CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE GUSTY WINDS. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SHOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS
DECOUPLE...WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE
EAST...IF WINDS GO LIGHT QUICKLY ENOUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
NIGHT THEN RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
HUDSON BAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES. THIS COULD MAKE THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD A BIT MESSY TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - PRECIP TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX BETWEEN
 - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
 - IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TO THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING COMMUTE

2) OVERVIEW...

INSIDE-RUNNER EVENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW CANADA
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SW-CONUS AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW
OF WARM-MOIST AIR ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND. AN
OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR N ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ANTICIPATING AN INITIAL SNOW EVENT TUESDAY EVENING TO
TRANSITION SW-NE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN /THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT FOR ALL LOCATIONS/.

TRICKY FORECAST IN NAILING DOWN TRANSITION TIMING WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT FORECAST BY ANY MEANS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS IN OUTCOMES. DETAILS ALONG WITH FORECAST
THINKING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW...

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO H925-85 THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-7/H100-85
THICKNESSES. PREFERENCE TO THE 02.12Z GFS AND REGIONAL CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND. THE 3 WILL SERVE AS THE FORECAST CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE THE NAM IS A TAD BIT
TOO WARM AND AGGRESSIVE. H925-85 WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. EVEN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SNOW EVENT...NAM WAS THE WARMER/AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER. A
FORECAST CONSENSUS AVERAGES AROUND A 0.3-0.5 TOTAL-PRECIP EVENT.

SO LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. SNOWS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX SW-
NE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WHILE INDICATIONS OF THE RAIN-LINE CREEPING N
WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE S-FLOW...THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND SUB-FREEZING
GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT RAIN FREEZING ON THE SURFACE. THINKING A
GOOD THRESHOLD IN WHERE WARM-RAIN WOULD OVERCOME THE COLDER GROUND
IS AROUND 36-DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE AREA TRANSITION OVER TO
RAIN AS WE GO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS PERHAPS THAT N
MA LOCALES WILL STILL EXPERIENCING ICING WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS
AND REMNANT DEEP SNOWPACK.

4) SNOWFALL...

MUCH OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS INITIALLY FLUFFY...SNOW LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN A WETTER CONSISTENCY WITH INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THINKING 10:1 TO 12:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS.

OVERALL DID NOT WANT TO BE CUTE WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKING
AN AVERAGE 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WORTH NOTING...THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT-END THUMP IS TO BE ANTICIPATED OF SNOW INTO
THE EVENING PERIOD PRIOR TO TRANSITION. A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE S-
FLOW AND THINKING A WETTER SNOW WITH 1:10 RATIOS HAS LESSENED THE
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES.

5) SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...

AGAIN...THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE SET AT 36-DEGREES.
FEEL WITH THE LINGERING ARCTIC TUNDRA THAT SURFACES WILL REMAIN SUB-
FREEZING FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE
FREEZING-MARK. LOOKING AT THE WINTRY-MIX TIMEFRAME AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING WHICH TIME THERE WILL BE A S-
N TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN AS WARMER AIR USHERS IN AND N ALOFT.

PER A FORECAST CONSENSUS...EXPECT MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WHERE THERE WOULD BE
LIKELY LESS TIME RESIDING IN THE SHALLOW WARM-AIRMASS H9-7 ALOFT PER
GFS BUFKIT PROFILES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN TOWARDS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME LIGHTER
THAT AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT OR BELOW 34 DEGREES WOULD RESULT
IN SUB-FREEZING SURFACES TO FREEZE WITH THE PRESENCE OF RAIN.

SO WHILE NOT BY DEFINITION FREEZING RAIN...ICING ISSUES LOOK TO
DEVELOP BY MORNING ONCE THE WHOLE COLUMN WAS JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING-
MARK KEEPING IN MIND THE SUB-FREEZING GROUND CONDITIONS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK WE HAVE BEEN ENVELOPED.

EXPECTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH.

6) HEADLINES AND IMPACTS...

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS...WILL BE GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ALL AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY EXCEPT THE ISLANDS AS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A TRACE OF A WINTRY MIX COMPRISED OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONCERN FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY BEGINNING. SLICK AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALSO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY MORN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING.

*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
 - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?
 - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED
WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A
MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE
FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING
DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-
RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND
NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE
OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-
COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START
OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7
BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE
0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.
SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF
THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE
DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE
WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE
ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU
THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO
END ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX NEAR
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-VLIFR WITH SNOW. POSSIBLE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH TRANSITION TO
RAIN...YET COULD TURN SOUPY WITH MILDER AIR OVER REMNANT SNOWPACK.
BREEZY S/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. SNOW ACCUMS ANTICIPATED FROM 21Z TUESDAY - 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT N-S AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. SHRA
MAY LINGER. COULD POTENTIALLY BE DEALING WITH SOUPY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK INITIALLY. WINDS BACK W WITH PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FOCUS ALONG THE MASS-PIKE S. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. IFR-VLIFR
WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S-COAST WHERE +SN POSSIBLE. INCH PER
HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY N/NW-WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS VFR. CONTINUED W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED FREEZING SPRAY ADV WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAXED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR
GALE-FORCE S/SW-WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY FOG AS WARMER AIR PUSHES N OVER THE COLDER WATERS
AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT THINKING GALE-FORCE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...FEEL GALES WILL ONLY MANGE AN HOUR OR TWO BECOMING A LOW-
RISK.

VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE ROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...STALLING OVER THE S-WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SNOW. WILL SEE
W/NW-WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.

IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEATHER IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA
BEHIND WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS INCREASE THANKS TO A 30-40 KTS 925MB JET. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE CLOSER TO SUNSET...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS KBAF CONTINUES TO REPORT -SN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
RADAR ECHOES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CLOSE TO
THE MASS/NH BORDER AS WELL. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SCT/BKN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO
EXCELLENT MIXING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT NEAR SUNSET.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR NEAR THE BERKSHIRES. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX NEAR SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS INCREASE THANKS TO A 30-40 KTS 925MB JET. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE CLOSER TO SUNSET...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS KBAF CONTINUES TO REPORT -SN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
RADAR ECHOES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CLOSE TO
THE MASS/NH BORDER AS WELL. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SCT/BKN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO
EXCELLENT MIXING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT NEAR SUNSET.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR NEAR THE BERKSHIRES. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX NEAR SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS INCREASE THANKS TO A 30-40 KTS 925MB JET. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE CLOSER TO SUNSET...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS KBAF CONTINUES TO REPORT -SN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
RADAR ECHOES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CLOSE TO
THE MASS/NH BORDER AS WELL. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SCT/BKN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO
EXCELLENT MIXING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT NEAR SUNSET.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR NEAR THE BERKSHIRES. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX NEAR SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1244 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE AND
WINDS INCREASE THANKS TO A 30-40 KTS 925MB JET. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE CLOSER TO SUNSET...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS KBAF CONTINUES TO REPORT -SN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
RADAR ECHOES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CLOSE TO
THE MASS/NH BORDER AS WELL. EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SCT/BKN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO
EXCELLENT MIXING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT NEAR SUNSET.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR NEAR THE BERKSHIRES. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25-35 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RELAX NEAR SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER VWP
PROFILES. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY ROBUST SO EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL IT
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AS TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WILL RISE AS
HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL WARM THE REGION UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL COOLER AS WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. 925 MB JET OF 30-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
ABOUT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND 20-28F. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO
A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR...PATCHY MVFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER VWP
PROFILES. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY ROBUST SO EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL IT
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AS TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WILL RISE AS
HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL WARM THE REGION UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL COOLER AS WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. 925 MB JET OF 30-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
ABOUT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND 20-28F. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO
A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR...PATCHY MVFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER VWP
PROFILES. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY ROBUST SO EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL IT
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AS TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WILL RISE AS
HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL WARM THE REGION UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL COOLER AS WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. 925 MB JET OF 30-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
ABOUT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND 20-28F. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO
A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR...PATCHY MVFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER VWP
PROFILES. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY ROBUST SO EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL IT
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AS TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WILL RISE AS
HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL WARM THE REGION UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL COOLER AS WIND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. 925 MB JET OF 30-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR
ABOUT 30-40 MPH GUSTS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND 20-28F. FINALLY WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO
A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR...PATCHY MVFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ALREADY MOVING RAPIDLY IN FROM THE W DWPTS ARE ALREADY
FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN SPOTS. MOST CHANGES WERE TO MADE TO
BRING SKIES AND TEMPS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BECAUSE THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT/S SNOW
HAS ALREADY EXITED THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 021200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ALREADY MOVING RAPIDLY IN FROM THE W DWPTS ARE ALREADY
FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN SPOTS. MOST CHANGES WERE TO MADE TO
BRING SKIES AND TEMPS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BECAUSE THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT/S SNOW
HAS ALREADY EXITED THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LAST OF THE IFR CONDITIONS ON CAPE/ISLANDS DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z.
VFR OTHERWISE. WIND GUSTS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE W.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT/S SNOW
HAS ALREADY EXITED THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CAPE/ISLANDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11 OR 12Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT/S SNOW
HAS ALREADY EXITED THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CAPE/ISLANDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11 OR 12Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINTRY
MIX...CHANGING TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT/S SNOW
HAS ALREADY EXITED THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  WE SHOULD SEE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT ALSO A LOT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IT WILL BE DRY TODAY...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO
FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT.  HIGH TEMPS AROUND
30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONGWAVE E CANADIAN TROF REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DEFINING
THE DAILY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN AO/NAO REMAIN
MOSTLY NEGATIVE AND PNA SHIFTS FROM NEGATIVE TO NEAR
NEUTRAL..SUSPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...EXCEPT WHERE THE SRN STREAM DOMINATES
COMING OUT OF A SPLIT ROW REGIME UPSTREAM..EXPECT MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ONE
CAVEAT...A PHASING OF STREAMS AS NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES MERGE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS THE MID LVL
WARMING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN LOW LVL WARMING THANKS
TO ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO SLOW WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC. A MIXED PRECIP EVENT
IS LIKELY...BUT NAM/GFS REMAIN COLDER WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE
AMPLIFIED /STARTING COLDER...BUT ENDING WARMER/ THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE. ECMWF HAS COOLED A BIT THOUGH...LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FACT THAT A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES /COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF BUT WITH SOME WEIGHT TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION/ WOULD BE
THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THIS
ENSEMBLE BLEND WORKS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERVIEW...
WITH A MERGER OF THE NRN STREAM /COLD AIR/ AND THE SRN STREAM
/MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR/ AS WELL AS A ROBUST 50+ KT H92 LLJ
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING AS ATTENDANT
LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
RATHER HIGH...PWATS 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE SRN STREAM CONNECTION. WITH COLD AIR TO START...H92
TEMPS START ABOUT -6C AND H85 TEMPS START ABOUT-8C TUE
EVENING...WARM ADVECTIVE OVERRUNNING WILL START AS SHIELD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL..SLR/S WILL BE GRADUALLY BECOMING LOWER HOWEVER
AS WARM AIR MOVES LIFTS THE DENDRITE ZONE OUT OF PEAK OMEGA. THE
ONLY FIGHTING CHANCE THE SNOW WILL HAVE INITIALLY IS UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WHERE H7-H4 LAPSE RATES INCREASE. THIS MAY AID THE
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND PRODUCE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OVERCOME THE
WARMING INITIALLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MID LVL WARM AIR WILL WIN
EVENTUALLY. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
WILL START AS SNOW...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY ALL RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WED
AS MID LVL TEMPS WARM INTO THE POSITIVE DIGITS.

TIMING...
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE IN WRN MA AND CT...THEN SPREAD E THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A
PERIOD OF 1+ INCH/HOUR RATES ARE OBSERVED GIVEN THE LIFT. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND WETTER AS TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS...EVEN IN THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAT A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN OCCURS MAINLY 10PM
TO 4AM WED. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP SNOW...ANY RAIN COULD FREEZE ON
CONTACT AS SFC TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY A BIT COLDER THAN 2M
TEMPS. THEREFORE...COULD SEE ICE ACCRETION EVEN AS OBSERVED TEMPS
SHIFT INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S...AND LINGER INTO MORNING HOURS WED.
HOWEVER...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT IN
DURING THE DAY AS A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHT RAIN OCCURS...SUCH THAT
A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE MORNING WED.

PRECIP TYPE/TOTALS...
THE INITIAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MODERATE...WITH
PERIODS APPROACHING AN INCH/HOUR AND WELL END FIRST ALONG THE S
COAST AND LAST AT THE MA/NH BORDER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED.
SUSPECT THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN NW MA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
ENHANCES SNOWFALL RATES. ACCUMS OF ADVISORY LVL LOOK LIKELY AS
0.25-0.5 INCHES OF QPF ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGE. INITIALLY A
CHANGE TO SLEET IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER RETURNS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO FREEZING RAIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY...AS 2M TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO SKEW DATA. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ICE ACCRETION APPROACHING T-0.1 INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON TOP OF THE AREA SNOWS. GRADUALLY...THE WARMING WILL LIKELY
SHIFT INTO THE 40S /ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYLIGHT WED/ AND FURTHER
ACCRETION WILL BECOME LIMITED.

OTHER IMPACTS TO CONSIDER...
THE LOWER SLR /HEAVIER-WETTER/ NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL EXACERBATE
ROOF LOADING...AND IT ONLY GET/S WORSE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY ICE ON TOP AND SOME LIQUID WATER GETTING INTO THE SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE...THERE IS THE RISK FOR FURTHER ROOF COLLAPSES IF NOT
TAKEN CARE OF. ALSO...AS A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS...WILL LIKELY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ROADWAY PONDING AND NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING WED AS SOME SNOWMELT
OCCURS AND DRAINS CLOG. NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIVERINE OR
STREAM FLOODING AS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD EASILY HANDLE THE 1.00
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF EXPECTED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS WE
APPROACH.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A LULL WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT REASONABLY ROBUST ANAFRONTAL
LOW PRES WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL TO SEE ONE OF THIS STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OVER FROM THE W AND
DEEPENING SOME...IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS
WHAT THE TEMPS WILL BE BY THIS TIME. WED COULD BE VERY WARM
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS ARE OBSERVED AND W WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN ALOFT...LOWERING THE
DENDRITE ZONE. THEREFORE...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LVL ON
TOP OF THE SNOW AND ICE FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. QPF VALUES OF
0.3-0.5 ARE PROGGED...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST EASY ACCUMS TO ADVISORY
LVL. IT APPEARS THE PEAK WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...AT
LEAST THAT/S WHERE F-GEN AND MOISTURE SEEM TO BE MOST COINCIDENT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRES MAKES A TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE REGION
AS 1040+HPA IN THE MASS FIELDS COMBINE WITH -20C H85 TEMPS. EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO NIGHTS AND
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES THU NIGHT AS THIS IS WHEN PRES
GRADIENT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL COULD SEE A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO MAKE A
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD PREEMPT ANY
PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL MODERATE LOW PRES WITH PRECIP IN
TOW...HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OR P-TYPES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CAPE/ISLANDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11 OR 12Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MA/NORTHERN CT AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF IFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE. SNOW TO
START...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN...THEN STRAIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMS
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES...ICE ACCUMS A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WED...A PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. VFR
LIKELY NORTH...IFR LIKELY IN SNOWFALL.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL PICKUP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
SEAS GOING ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS UNTIL AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
LOW PRES MOVES WELL INLAND...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
LOW VSBYS EXPECTED. SLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING 5-8 FT BY WED MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WATERS. PRECIP CONTINUES. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25
KT. ALSO...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED 5-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
TAKEN DOWN.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

LAST GASP OF SNOW ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MA WILL BE QUICKLY
EXITING THE REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THAT WILL ALSO BE ENDING SHORTLY.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN ALL THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
VERY SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HANG TOUGH
OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THE WINDS WILL NOT PICKUP TOO MUCH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS PERSISTING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 7 OR 8Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>016-022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

LAST GASP OF SNOW ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MA WILL BE QUICKLY
EXITING THE REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THAT WILL ALSO BE ENDING SHORTLY.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN ALL THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
VERY SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HANG TOUGH
OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THE WINDS WILL NOT PICKUP TOO MUCH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS PERSISTING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 7 OR 8Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>016-022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

LAST GASP OF SNOW ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MA WILL BE QUICKLY
EXITING THE REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THAT WILL ALSO BE ENDING SHORTLY.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN ALL THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
VERY SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HANG TOUGH
OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THE WINDS WILL NOT PICKUP TOO MUCH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS PERSISTING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 7 OR 8Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>016-022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS
MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

LAST GASP OF SNOW ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MA WILL BE QUICKLY
EXITING THE REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND THAT WILL ALSO BE ENDING SHORTLY.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN ALL THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
VERY SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HANG TOUGH
OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING...BUT
THE WINDS WILL NOT PICKUP TOO MUCH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS PERSISTING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 7 OR 8Z.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE A SCATTERED TO EVEN BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>016-022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1050 PM UPDATE...

BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS EVENING.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO RAIN AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ONTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MOST CAPE COD.  THAT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO
MUCH FURTHER NORTH...BUT MAY AFFECT JUST THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES
AROUND BUZZARDS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY.  MEANWHILE...LIGHT
TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AS
A RESULT OF SOME BROAD SCALE LIFT.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM AS SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.  TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH OF PIKE...WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE.  WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS UP
TO 6 INCHES ALREADY.  AGAIN...RAIN/SNOW LINE PRETTY MUCH WILL HANG
THE SHORES OF BUZZARDS BAY AND INTO PART OF CAPE COD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 020351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1050 PM UPDATE...

BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS EVENING.  PTYPE HAS CHANGED TO RAIN AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ONTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MOST CAPE COD.  THAT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN LINE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO
MUCH FURTHER NORTH...BUT MAY AFFECT JUST THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES
AROUND BUZZARDS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY.  MEANWHILE...LIGHT
TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AS
A RESULT OF SOME BROAD SCALE LIFT.

OVERALL...EXPECT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM AS SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.  TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
SOUTH OF PIKE...WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE.  WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS UP
TO 6 INCHES ALREADY.  AGAIN...RAIN/SNOW LINE PRETTY MUCH WILL HANG
THE SHORES OF BUZZARDS BAY AND INTO PART OF CAPE COD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022-023-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS RESULT OF BROAD SCALE MID LEVEL LIFT.  THERE
WAS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA.  THIS A RESULT OF BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WITH A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THAT REGION.  SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN CALM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY
AIDING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.  BASED ON
THE LATEST DATA...PROBABLY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW EVEN FOR
MOST OF CAPE COD.  PERHAPS A BRIEF CHANGE OVER AT THE END NEAR
CHATHAM AT THE END...BUT A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.  IT MIGHT END UP CLOSE TO A MARGINAL WARNING ACROSS THE
UPPER CAPE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL THE TRIGGER.
NANTUCKET HAS JUST CHANGED TO RAIN AND PROBABLY WILL SEE MARTHAS
VINEYARD GO OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE...3 TO 6
INCHES SOUTH OF THE PIKE.  STILL EXPECT A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH THE HELP OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THAT REGION.

LATEST MODELS DATA IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALL BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS SNOW WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1
OR 2 AM...BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS RESULT OF BROAD SCALE MID LEVEL LIFT.  THERE
WAS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA.  THIS A RESULT OF BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WITH A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THAT REGION.  SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN CALM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY
AIDING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.  BASED ON
THE LATEST DATA...PROBABLY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW EVEN FOR
MOST OF CAPE COD.  PERHAPS A BRIEF CHANGE OVER AT THE END NEAR
CHATHAM AT THE END...BUT A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.  IT MIGHT END UP CLOSE TO A MARGINAL WARNING ACROSS THE
UPPER CAPE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PULL THE TRIGGER.
NANTUCKET HAS JUST CHANGED TO RAIN AND PROBABLY WILL SEE MARTHAS
VINEYARD GO OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE...3 TO 6
INCHES SOUTH OF THE PIKE.  STILL EXPECT A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH THE HELP OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THAT REGION.

LATEST MODELS DATA IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALL BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS SNOW WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1
OR 2 AM...BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSIFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST VSBYS ARE
ACROSS CONNECTICUT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A WOBBLE NORTH THAT
BRINGS BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES NEAR THE MASS PIKE CORRIDOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...THE 4 PM FORECAST HANDLES IT QUITE
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST VSBYS ARE
ACROSS CONNECTICUT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A WOBBLE NORTH THAT
BRINGS BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES NEAR THE MASS PIKE CORRIDOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...THE 4 PM FORECAST HANDLES IT QUITE
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST VSBYS ARE
ACROSS CONNECTICUT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A WOBBLE NORTH THAT
BRINGS BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES NEAR THE MASS PIKE CORRIDOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...THE 4 PM FORECAST HANDLES IT QUITE
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012346
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWEST VSBYS ARE
ACROSS CONNECTICUT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A WOBBLE NORTH THAT
BRINGS BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES NEAR THE MASS PIKE CORRIDOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...THE 4 PM FORECAST HANDLES IT QUITE
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHES OF IFR
VALUES. VSBYS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILES WITH A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN CT
THROUGH RI AND SE MASS WHERE VSBYS ARE LIFR AT 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ZONE OF
LOWER VSBYS AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD WOBBLE NORTH A FEW MILES AND
BRIEFLY APPROACH BOSTON BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTH FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH MILDER AIR NORTH TO MIX OR CHANGE THE
PCPN TO RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF THE OUTER CAPE. BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOULD ENDS 06Z WEST TO 10Z EAST /LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY/ MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD
BRIEFLY VISIT THE AIRPORT EARLY TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
457 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

2130Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS
WILL MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012157
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
457 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR
FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND
ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN
PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBS AS OF 21Z INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST RADAR
RETURNS AT 21Z WERE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CT INTO RI...AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. 12Z MODELS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THAT AREA.

BECAUSE OF THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SHORT
LIVED WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING...CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL COVER THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME
DECENT RATIOS. SO WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF
REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADED BLOCK ISLAND TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
RAIN IN THIS AREA AT TIMES.

EXPECT THIS TO BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. IT DOES BECOME A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.
CONTINUED THE HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE
BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS. IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END FOR DAYBREAK MONDAY
...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSRUE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTEED DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER AS WE GET TOWARDS
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...25 TO 35 MPH ON THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BECAUSE OF THIS DID
GENERALLY GO BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LOOKING TO
ANTICIPATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR A GUIDELINE ON HOW LOW WE CAN
GO. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR DROP BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

2130Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS
WILL MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS. WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR
MARINERS.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE GOING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTENSFIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BASED ON
18Z OBS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN STARTED AT PVD. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LIKELY REACHING BOSTON AROUND 20Z. AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT BAF-BDL BUT MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST TO START...WITH CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z IN LIGHT SNOW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL MIX OR CHANGE
TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NMB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BASED ON
18Z OBS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN STARTED AT PVD. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LIKELY REACHING BOSTON AROUND 20Z. AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH
TRANSITING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE EASTERN USA DURING
THE LATE WEEK AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BACK ASHORE ONTO THE WEST COAST.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH ARE LOWEST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A TREND TO COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY-
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON
WITH AIRFLOW SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS STARTS OUT QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
BELOW ZERO TO START...CLIMBING TO 5-10 ABOVE BY EVENING. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WHILE DRY BENEATH.
LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MIDWEST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALL SUGGEST THE INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENTERING WESTERN MA/CT
AT OR AFTER 21Z. SO WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK INTO CANADA. THIS BRINGS A MILD
FLOW OF AIR UP OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
REACHES WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY...THE
MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING WELL THE CHILLING MASS OF SNOW AND COLD
GROUND /A.K.A. THE GIANT ICECUBE/ WHICH WOULD MEAN THE ACTUAL MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES AT 925
AND 950 MB WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECREASING RH IN
THE LIFT AND NUCLEATION ZONES ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THE TREND
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE TO DIMINISHING POPS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE
UPPER FLOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SLOWING ITS OFFSHORE
PROGRESS TO A CRAWL. MEANWHILE WE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET...A SOURCE OF UPPER VENTING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PCPN...WITH TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. BEST CHANCE SOUTH COAST...LESSER CHANCE FARTHER
NORTH. THE JET AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ALOFT BUT MOST OF IT IS CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH.  ALSO JUST
LIMITED LIFT TO WORK ON THAT MOISTURE. WE WILL HAVE 25-50 PCT SKY
COVER AND NIL POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT BAF-BDL BUT MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST TO START...WITH CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z IN LIGHT SNOW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL MIX OR CHANGE
TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR. INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD SURFACES COULD
MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN ELEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW...DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET IN THE
MORNING BUT DIMINISHING. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 20 KNOTS.
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD END IN THE MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND ON
RI SOUND. REDUCED VSBYS...INITIALLY SNOW BUT CHANGING TO RAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...DIMINISHING LATE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... SHIFTING WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-
     256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NMB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BASED ON
18Z OBS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN STARTED AT PVD. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LIKELY REACHING BOSTON AROUND 20Z. AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT BAF-BDL BUT MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST TO START...WITH CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z IN LIGHT SNOW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL MIX OR CHANGE
TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BASED ON
18Z OBS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN STARTED AT PVD. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LIKELY REACHING BOSTON AROUND 20Z. AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT BAF-BDL BUT MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST TO START...WITH CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z IN LIGHT SNOW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL MIX OR CHANGE
TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BASED ON
18Z OBS LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN STARTED AT PVD. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...LIKELY REACHING BOSTON AROUND 20Z. AGAIN ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT BAF-BDL BUT MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST TO START...WITH CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
18Z AND 21Z IN LIGHT SNOW.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL MIX OR CHANGE
TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8Z TO 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12-13Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011515
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY ON TRACK...MID DECK AND LOWER CLOUDS
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITAITON GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE DRY LAYER BELOW. KBOX RADAR IMAGERY AS OF
15Z SHOWS PRECIP RETURNS AS LOW AS 5-8KFT. 15Z METARS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE DANBURY CT AREA. CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE 15Z-18Z FOR FIRST SNOWFLAKES TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...18Z-20Z EASTERNMOST ZONES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

15Z UPDATE..
THRU MIDDAY TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MORNING TAFS LOOK ON
TRACK...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS
MORNING BAF/BDL THEN SPREADING W-E. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
BDL/BAF BY 17Z...TO THE EAST EXPECT VFR THRU 17Z.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE
DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING...LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011515
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY ON TRACK...MID DECK AND LOWER CLOUDS
WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITAITON GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE DRY LAYER BELOW. KBOX RADAR IMAGERY AS OF
15Z SHOWS PRECIP RETURNS AS LOW AS 5-8KFT. 15Z METARS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE DANBURY CT AREA. CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE 15Z-18Z FOR FIRST SNOWFLAKES TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...18Z-20Z EASTERNMOST ZONES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

15Z UPDATE..
THRU MIDDAY TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MORNING TAFS LOOK ON
TRACK...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. FLURRIES SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS
MORNING BAF/BDL THEN SPREADING W-E. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
BDL/BAF BY 17Z...TO THE EAST EXPECT VFR THRU 17Z.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE
DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING...LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ002>016-
     022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST THIS MORNING IS MAINLY ON TRACK. ADDED A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SPED UP TIMING OF FLURRIES IN THE W AS RETURNS ARE
ALREADY VISIBLE ABOVE 10KFT ON KBOX. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THESE TO START REACHING THE GROUND THOUGH...BECAUSE DWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL 10F OR MORE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTUAL
DWPTS MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

12Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS...IT LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES MAY BEGIN
LATE THIS MORNING FROM W-E BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z...SPREADING EAST
FROM THERE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
7 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST THIS MORNING IS MAINLY ON TRACK. ADDED A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SPED UP TIMING OF FLURRIES IN THE W AS RETURNS ARE
ALREADY VISIBLE ABOVE 10KFT ON KBOX. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THESE TO START REACHING THE GROUND THOUGH...BECAUSE DWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL 10F OR MORE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTUAL
DWPTS MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

12Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS...IT LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES MAY BEGIN
LATE THIS MORNING FROM W-E BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z...SPREADING EAST
FROM THERE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. PTYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST THE ISLANDS
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY COLD AIR FOR THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
AND ASSOCIATED LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL
MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THICKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNING THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE AREAS OF SNOW SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL PROBABLY BE
A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH THROUGH THAT THAT TIME.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
*** BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 1 AM WITH
  THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE ***

1) OVERVIEW AND TIMING:

THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND
1 AM ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BETTER FORCING
WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS A RESULT
OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW
INTENSE THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
RGEM/NAM ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  THE
NAM SHOWS A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OF 15 TO 20 MICROBARS PER
SECOND WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS ALSO HAS FAIRLY
STRONG LIFT...BUT KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION OUT OVER THE
OCEAN.  THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DISPLACED
FURTHER EAST.  THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE
GROUND WHICH WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS.

2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS:

WITH THAT SAID...THE OTHER DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES.  THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE TYPE OF SETUP WHERE WE
ARE GOING TO RECEIVE WIDESPREAD WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  THE
WINDOW FOR THE VERY STRONG LIFT/FORCING IS SHORT-LIVED AND REALLY
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL JET A BIT MORE BACKED TO TRANSPORT
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/S FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
COVER IT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THERE IS NICE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT RATIOS.  SO WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE LOW RISK OF REACHING WARNING AMOUNTS AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND NORTHWEST RI.

WE DID UPGRADE A SMALL AREA FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
INTO SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO TRANSPORT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.  THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS REGION.

3) PTYPE AND IMPACTS:

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS BE PRETTY MUCH A SNOW EVENT.  IT DOES BECOME
A VERY CLOSE CALL NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT WERE LEANING TOWARDS IT
STAYING MAINLY WET SNOW.  IF PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP THAT MAY
INCREASE THIS RISK WE SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...WE WENT WITH A HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CAPE BECAUSE THEY MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HYANNIS.  IF THE CHANGE OVER DOES NOT OCCUR...WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
THEM TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
GIVEN EXPECTED QPF.

THE ONE THING WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IS AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND CAPE COD.  LOOKS TO BE A WET SNOW DOWN THAT WAY AND ON GOING
ROOF ISSUES MAY BE EXACERBATED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO EXCEED 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON MON WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
    TUE.
  * A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUE INTO WED.
  * CONDITIONS IMPROVE THU BUT BECOMING COLD AGAIN.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
A SPLIT FLOW MERGER WILL BE THE DEFINING FACTOR THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MID TERM...THE STREAMS MERGE THANKS
TO PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AS MERGING
STRONG JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...CREATING AN OVERRUNNING EVENT AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO
OCCLUDE. THIS IS THE MIXED PRECIP EVENT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
FOR SOME TIME NOW. NOW THAT NAM HAS CAPTURED IT...IT APPEARS
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF
STARTS COLD AND SHIFTS TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE DUE TO
THE FACT THAT IT IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS...ECENS/GEFS MEANS ARE ACTUALLY A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND HERE.
THIS BLEND WILL BE USED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

DETAILS...

MON INTO TUE...
REMNANT SNOWFALLS WILL BE GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THROUGH MID
MORNING MON...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE
BERKSHIRES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
OVERRUNNING EVENT EXPECTED AS WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH N
ACROSS THE REGION BUT IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...50-60 KT LLJ
WITH STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW UPPER LVL WARMING TON
CONTINUE UNIMPEDED. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG JET AT ONLY 3-5KFT
ABOVE THE SFC...SNOWPACK WILL MAKE MIXING DIFFICULT SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

THE COLUMN STARTS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET TUE EVENING...AND
LOOKS LIKE AS MUCH AS 0.40-0.60 OF THE TOTAL EVENT QPF FALLS AS
SNOW INITIALLY EVERYWHERE...WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WED MORNING FROM S-N. THEREFORE...COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT LOW-END WARNING LVL SNOWFALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN COULD LOCK IN FOR SOME TIME AND GIVEN THAT H93 TEMPS
/EVEN ON THE COLDEST GUIDANCE/ AN AVERAGE OF +4C DURING THE 08Z-
16Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SFC TEMPS MAY HOLD NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME TIME
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRAIGHT RAIN
FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 2M
TEMPS REBOUND...AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF ICE CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT LEANING A BIT COLDER THAN
MOS 2M TEMPS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

MODEST UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS
COULD ALSO MEAN A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP...BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.
WITH THE RAIN...COMES A RISK FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION AS SNOW MELTS AND DRAINS BECOME CLOGGED. PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON WED...BUT MAY LINGER A
BIT NEAR THE S COAST...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DIMINISH HERE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LVL JET EXITS TO THE EAST AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. THE
MORE AMPLIFIED GUIDANCE...LED BY THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE AND WITHIN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL JET. THIS SUGGESTS S COASTAL AREAS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FOR A TIME WELL INTO
THE DAY ON THU. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE GFS
WOULD MOVE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES OFFSHORE SUCH THAT THU IS
MAINLY DRY AND BECOMING QUITE COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS BUT WITH THE ECENS/GEFS SLOWER MEMBERS BLENDED IN.
THE FINAL ANSWER WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER 1035+
HPA HIGH PRES. WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE TEENS AND 20S
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

NEXT WEEKEND...
SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO WHETHER YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL BE
EFFECT THE REGION. WILL LEAN MAINLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE IS QUITE DRY AND THE WAVE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK AND SHEARING
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR IN REMNANT SNOWS END EARLY...WITH TRANSITION TO VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A MESSY PERIOD. SNOW BEGINS EVERYWHERE LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED...THEN TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WED. SOME ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE WED BUT MAY LINGER
ALONG THE S COAST AND EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW INTO THE DAY ON THU.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM N-S ON THU. LLWS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY...SO WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 TO 25
KNOTS NEAR 12Z MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...RAIN AND SNOW LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR MARINERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE SW THEN SHIFT TO W-NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS REACH 35-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO
WILL BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS START AT OR AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
BUT THEN DROP DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING
WEATHER IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE NIGHT INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRES PASSES WELL INLAND...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE W LATE WED INTO THU. PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED EVENING.
SEAS BUILD THROUGH WED TO AROUND 7-10FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THEN
DIMINISH THU. AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. PERIODS OF SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN EARLY WED
WITH SOME LOW VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG ON WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>016-022>024-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
115 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

115 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS RESULTING IN
ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  TEMPS ALREADY BELOW
ZERO IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON STILL HAD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S!

LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  OTHER AREAS THAT DO NOT
RADIATE AS WELL SUCH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

THESE LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY 4 OR 5 AM AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR
RISE BY DAYBREAK...AS SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*/ SUNDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY...

QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS THICKENING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.

*/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING
 - GREATEST INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
 - 6+ INCH SNOWFALLS EXPECTED BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
 - ANNOYINGLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE

1) OVERVIEW...

BROAD ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING EVENT OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE 275-
295K SURFACES AMPLIFIED BY A N-STREAM IMPULSE DURING THE TIMEFRAME
POSSIBLY INVOKING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT SKIRTS ALONG THE S-
COAST SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE. LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE INTENSE
PORTION OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MODEL PREFERENCE GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN WHICH WILL
SERVE AS THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS DISCUSSION. THE 28.12Z
NAM WAS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER WITH ITS AGGRESSIVE-MODE AND SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST OFFSHORE.

2) PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

EVALUATING THERMAL FIELDS...BLEND OF FORECAST CONSENSUS PUTS THE
-2C H925 ISOTHERM W-E ACROSS S-TIER OF CT/RI AND ACROSS SE MA WITH
THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM JUST S OF LONG-ISLAND AND NANTUCKET COASTLINES.
THE CONSENSUS OF 1000-850 MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES LAYS RIGHT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST OF LONG-ISLAND AND CAPE COD.

AN ALL SNOW-EVENT WHEN CONSIDERING DYNAMIC-COOLING/WETBULBING OF THE
LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE EVENT. THERE IS PERHAPS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
MIX-OVER TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS S-FLOW
AT THE SURFACE IS POSSIBLY ABLE TO NUDGE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
N. YET AS WE ARE IN A FROZEN TUNDRA...WITH ANY RAIN IT WOULD LIKELY
FREEZE ON SURFACES WHICH ARE QUITE COLD. THUS FREEZING RAIN PREVAILS
OVER RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

3) SNOWFALL...

FORECAST CONSENSUS OF A 0.3-0.6 N-S PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH A N-S
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GRADIENT RANGING FROM 15:1 TO 10:1 YIELDS HIGH-
END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING ON AVERAGE
AROUND 3-6 INCHES. AREAS OF 6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL-CT E INTO SE-MA /INCLUDING THE UPPER-CAPE/. A CHALLENGE AND
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AND DECISION-MAKING.

EVALUATING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES TOWARDS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
DERIVED VIA A COBB-TECHNIQUE...WITH THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURRING
JUST BENEATH OR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC-GROWTH ZONE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF BUFKIT GFS PROFILES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER- PRECIP
AREAS...BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A WET AND
FLUFFY SNOW. SNOW PROPERTIES FROM FLUFFY TO WET LIKELY SIMILAR TO
THE N-S GRADIENT AS OUTLINED ABOVE.

4) HEADLINES...

HATE A WOBBLING FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH SMALL EVENTS.
UNCERTAINTY DERIVES FROM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. SURELY EXPECTING SNOW...BUT WITH ANY SHIFT N-S OF COLDER
AIR AND/OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RESULTS IN AREAS SHIFTING FROM
ADVISORY TO WARNING...OR VICE VERSA. ENOUGH TO JUST PULL YOUR HAIR
OUT. THEN THERE IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS SPED UP
SLIGHTLY. A SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME OF COURSE WOULD YIELD LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST RIGHT ON THE CUSP
OF HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

THE EVENT DOES TAKE PLACE MAINLY FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE IS NOT MUCH TRAFFIC
ON THE ROAD. IS THIS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT THAT WARRANTS WARNINGS? A
QUESTION TO STRUGGLE WITH AS WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY WHEN WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN MEETING OR EXCEEDING 6+ INCH CRITERIA. YET THE QUESTION
IN FRONT OF US IS WHERE WILL THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOCUS? HAVE
TO MAKE SOME SORT OF CALL...THE NEEDS OF THE MANY OUTWEIGH THE NEEDS
OF THE FEW.

ADVISORIES POSTED WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SNOW BUT LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW THE 6-INCH THRESHOLD FOR WARNING. WATCHES CONTINUE
AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO THE S-COAST TO COVER FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE AREA EITHER FALLING WITHIN OR IN EXCESS OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWS. AGAIN...6+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS
UNCERTAIN.

5) CLOSING NOTES...

SOME CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR E/SE MA AND
RI. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE
WITH SUNRISE MONDAY...COMMUTERS COULD ENCOUNTER SLICK AND SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS. SNOW COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OVER SE MA SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW SHOWS A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND
TROUGH IN THE WEST WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN USA COAST. WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS AT THE START OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN TROUGH MIGRATES EAST
DURING THE MIDWEEK AT WHICH TIME THE TWO STREAMS MERGE TO FORM A 140-
160 KT UPPER JET FEEDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS JET LINGERS OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF. THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAILIES...

MONDAY... SUNDAY STORM MOVES OFF PAST NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT IS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE LINGERS BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RISING PRESSURE TO THE REGION BUT HAVE 1
MB/HOUR RISES HERE BY EVENING. PUT TOGETHER...EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND BUT WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RISE TO 15-20 KTS. MIXING REACHES
TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH SUPPORTS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 35 KNOTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE -11C TO -14C...MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT MAX
SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESP IN THE WEST...WE TENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF TUESDAY BUT
MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH CLOUD LEVEL...SO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS PCPN INTO NEW YORK...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LIFT FORECAST AT 290K /ABOUT 730 MB AT THE TIME/ BUT
NONE BELOW THAT. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS PROGRESS
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF ANY PCPN FROM THE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION LIFT MUCH OF THE NIGHT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURES START COLD DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD RISE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL CLIMB. EVEN
WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THERE IS
COLD GROUND AND A COLD SNOWPACK. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE WARMER TEMPS
TO SCREAM OVERHEAD WHILE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE REMAINS SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER. WE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A LITTLE FROM MODEL
VALUES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL THAT
SURFACE TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 30S.

QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
TENDING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. THIS POINTS TO A MESSY STORM WITH
INITIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF SEVERAL INCHES FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO
MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION AND THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN BETWEEN THE SNOW BANKS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HANDING THE UPPER JET.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE JET OFFSHORE AND PUTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE JET OVERHEAD WITH OUR AREA
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE FIRST SCENARIO ENDS THE PCPN AND
COOLS THE AIR. THE SECOND SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT LIFT AND GENERATE
WAVES ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. OUR THURSDAY
FORECAST TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER FOR NOW.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR.
TEMPS ALOFT TREND UP ABOUT 10C ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING LESS CHILL AT
THE SURFACE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND COULD SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME IFR/MVFR IN SNOW EARLY MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
VFR AND DIMINISHING WIND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR TUESDAY EVENING BECOMING IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE. THIS COULD GENERATE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ESPECIALLY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5
TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT DIMINISHING
DURING THE MORNING.  WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
APPROACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET. VSBYS WILL
BE REDUCED IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.  SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 TO 12 FEET. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS 5 TO 8
FEET. BOTH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>008-010-014-023-024-026.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>022.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
115 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

115 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS RESULTING IN
ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  TEMPS ALREADY BELOW
ZERO IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON STILL HAD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S!

LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  OTHER AREAS THAT DO NOT
RADIATE AS WELL SUCH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

THESE LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY 4 OR 5 AM AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR
RISE BY DAYBREAK...AS SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*/ SUNDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY...

QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS THICKENING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.

*/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING
 - GREATEST INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
 - 6+ INCH SNOWFALLS EXPECTED BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
 - ANNOYINGLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE

1) OVERVIEW...

BROAD ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING EVENT OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE 275-
295K SURFACES AMPLIFIED BY A N-STREAM IMPULSE DURING THE TIMEFRAME
POSSIBLY INVOKING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT SKIRTS ALONG THE S-
COAST SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE. LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE INTENSE
PORTION OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MODEL PREFERENCE GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN WHICH WILL
SERVE AS THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS DISCUSSION. THE 28.12Z
NAM WAS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER WITH ITS AGGRESSIVE-MODE AND SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST OFFSHORE.

2) PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

EVALUATING THERMAL FIELDS...BLEND OF FORECAST CONSENSUS PUTS THE
-2C H925 ISOTHERM W-E ACROSS S-TIER OF CT/RI AND ACROSS SE MA WITH
THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM JUST S OF LONG-ISLAND AND NANTUCKET COASTLINES.
THE CONSENSUS OF 1000-850 MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES LAYS RIGHT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST OF LONG-ISLAND AND CAPE COD.

AN ALL SNOW-EVENT WHEN CONSIDERING DYNAMIC-COOLING/WETBULBING OF THE
LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE EVENT. THERE IS PERHAPS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
MIX-OVER TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS S-FLOW
AT THE SURFACE IS POSSIBLY ABLE TO NUDGE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
N. YET AS WE ARE IN A FROZEN TUNDRA...WITH ANY RAIN IT WOULD LIKELY
FREEZE ON SURFACES WHICH ARE QUITE COLD. THUS FREEZING RAIN PREVAILS
OVER RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

3) SNOWFALL...

FORECAST CONSENSUS OF A 0.3-0.6 N-S PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH A N-S
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GRADIENT RANGING FROM 15:1 TO 10:1 YIELDS HIGH-
END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING ON AVERAGE
AROUND 3-6 INCHES. AREAS OF 6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL-CT E INTO SE-MA /INCLUDING THE UPPER-CAPE/. A CHALLENGE AND
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AND DECISION-MAKING.

EVALUATING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES TOWARDS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
DERIVED VIA A COBB-TECHNIQUE...WITH THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURRING
JUST BENEATH OR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC-GROWTH ZONE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF BUFKIT GFS PROFILES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER- PRECIP
AREAS...BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A WET AND
FLUFFY SNOW. SNOW PROPERTIES FROM FLUFFY TO WET LIKELY SIMILAR TO
THE N-S GRADIENT AS OUTLINED ABOVE.

4) HEADLINES...

HATE A WOBBLING FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH SMALL EVENTS.
UNCERTAINTY DERIVES FROM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. SURELY EXPECTING SNOW...BUT WITH ANY SHIFT N-S OF COLDER
AIR AND/OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RESULTS IN AREAS SHIFTING FROM
ADVISORY TO WARNING...OR VICE VERSA. ENOUGH TO JUST PULL YOUR HAIR
OUT. THEN THERE IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS SPED UP
SLIGHTLY. A SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME OF COURSE WOULD YIELD LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST RIGHT ON THE CUSP
OF HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

THE EVENT DOES TAKE PLACE MAINLY FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE IS NOT MUCH TRAFFIC
ON THE ROAD. IS THIS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT THAT WARRANTS WARNINGS? A
QUESTION TO STRUGGLE WITH AS WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY WHEN WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN MEETING OR EXCEEDING 6+ INCH CRITERIA. YET THE QUESTION
IN FRONT OF US IS WHERE WILL THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOCUS? HAVE
TO MAKE SOME SORT OF CALL...THE NEEDS OF THE MANY OUTWEIGH THE NEEDS
OF THE FEW.

ADVISORIES POSTED WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SNOW BUT LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW THE 6-INCH THRESHOLD FOR WARNING. WATCHES CONTINUE
AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO THE S-COAST TO COVER FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE AREA EITHER FALLING WITHIN OR IN EXCESS OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWS. AGAIN...6+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS
UNCERTAIN.

5) CLOSING NOTES...

SOME CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR E/SE MA AND
RI. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE
WITH SUNRISE MONDAY...COMMUTERS COULD ENCOUNTER SLICK AND SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS. SNOW COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OVER SE MA SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW SHOWS A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND
TROUGH IN THE WEST WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN USA COAST. WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS AT THE START OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN TROUGH MIGRATES EAST
DURING THE MIDWEEK AT WHICH TIME THE TWO STREAMS MERGE TO FORM A 140-
160 KT UPPER JET FEEDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS JET LINGERS OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF. THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAILIES...

MONDAY... SUNDAY STORM MOVES OFF PAST NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT IS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE LINGERS BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RISING PRESSURE TO THE REGION BUT HAVE 1
MB/HOUR RISES HERE BY EVENING. PUT TOGETHER...EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND BUT WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RISE TO 15-20 KTS. MIXING REACHES
TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH SUPPORTS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 35 KNOTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE -11C TO -14C...MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT MAX
SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESP IN THE WEST...WE TENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF TUESDAY BUT
MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH CLOUD LEVEL...SO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS PCPN INTO NEW YORK...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LIFT FORECAST AT 290K /ABOUT 730 MB AT THE TIME/ BUT
NONE BELOW THAT. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS PROGRESS
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF ANY PCPN FROM THE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION LIFT MUCH OF THE NIGHT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURES START COLD DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD RISE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL CLIMB. EVEN
WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THERE IS
COLD GROUND AND A COLD SNOWPACK. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE WARMER TEMPS
TO SCREAM OVERHEAD WHILE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE REMAINS SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER. WE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A LITTLE FROM MODEL
VALUES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL THAT
SURFACE TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 30S.

QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
TENDING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. THIS POINTS TO A MESSY STORM WITH
INITIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF SEVERAL INCHES FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO
MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION AND THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN BETWEEN THE SNOW BANKS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HANDING THE UPPER JET.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE JET OFFSHORE AND PUTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE JET OVERHEAD WITH OUR AREA
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE FIRST SCENARIO ENDS THE PCPN AND
COOLS THE AIR. THE SECOND SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT LIFT AND GENERATE
WAVES ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. OUR THURSDAY
FORECAST TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER FOR NOW.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR.
TEMPS ALOFT TREND UP ABOUT 10C ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING LESS CHILL AT
THE SURFACE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND COULD SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME IFR/MVFR IN SNOW EARLY MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
VFR AND DIMINISHING WIND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR TUESDAY EVENING BECOMING IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE. THIS COULD GENERATE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ESPECIALLY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5
TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT DIMINISHING
DURING THE MORNING.  WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
APPROACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET. VSBYS WILL
BE REDUCED IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.  SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 TO 12 FEET. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS 5 TO 8
FEET. BOTH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>008-010-014-023-024-026.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>022.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010617
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
115 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY COLD AIR FOR THE
EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LOW
FORMING OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL MERGE...THEN PASS WEST AND
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

115 AM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOW PACK WAS RESULTING IN
ANOTHER EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  TEMPS ALREADY BELOW
ZERO IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON STILL HAD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S!

LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  OTHER AREAS THAT DO NOT
RADIATE AS WELL SUCH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO LOWER TEENS.

THESE LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY 4 OR 5 AM AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR
RISE BY DAYBREAK...AS SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*/ SUNDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY...

QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS THICKENING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.

*/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING
 - GREATEST INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
 - 6+ INCH SNOWFALLS EXPECTED BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
 - ANNOYINGLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE

1) OVERVIEW...

BROAD ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING EVENT OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE 275-
295K SURFACES AMPLIFIED BY A N-STREAM IMPULSE DURING THE TIMEFRAME
POSSIBLY INVOKING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT SKIRTS ALONG THE S-
COAST SUBSEQUENTLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE. LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THE INTENSE
PORTION OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MODEL PREFERENCE GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN WHICH WILL
SERVE AS THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS DISCUSSION. THE 28.12Z
NAM WAS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER WITH ITS AGGRESSIVE-MODE AND SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST OFFSHORE.

2) PRECIPITATION-TYPE...

EVALUATING THERMAL FIELDS...BLEND OF FORECAST CONSENSUS PUTS THE
-2C H925 ISOTHERM W-E ACROSS S-TIER OF CT/RI AND ACROSS SE MA WITH
THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM JUST S OF LONG-ISLAND AND NANTUCKET COASTLINES.
THE CONSENSUS OF 1000-850 MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES LAYS RIGHT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST OF LONG-ISLAND AND CAPE COD.

AN ALL SNOW-EVENT WHEN CONSIDERING DYNAMIC-COOLING/WETBULBING OF THE
LOW-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE EVENT. THERE IS PERHAPS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
MIX-OVER TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS S-FLOW
AT THE SURFACE IS POSSIBLY ABLE TO NUDGE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
N. YET AS WE ARE IN A FROZEN TUNDRA...WITH ANY RAIN IT WOULD LIKELY
FREEZE ON SURFACES WHICH ARE QUITE COLD. THUS FREEZING RAIN PREVAILS
OVER RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

3) SNOWFALL...

FORECAST CONSENSUS OF A 0.3-0.6 N-S PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH A N-S
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO GRADIENT RANGING FROM 15:1 TO 10:1 YIELDS HIGH-
END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING ON AVERAGE
AROUND 3-6 INCHES. AREAS OF 6+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL-CT E INTO SE-MA /INCLUDING THE UPPER-CAPE/. A CHALLENGE AND
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HEADLINES AND DECISION-MAKING.

EVALUATING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES TOWARDS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
DERIVED VIA A COBB-TECHNIQUE...WITH THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURRING
JUST BENEATH OR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC-GROWTH ZONE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF BUFKIT GFS PROFILES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER- PRECIP
AREAS...BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A WET AND
FLUFFY SNOW. SNOW PROPERTIES FROM FLUFFY TO WET LIKELY SIMILAR TO
THE N-S GRADIENT AS OUTLINED ABOVE.

4) HEADLINES...

HATE A WOBBLING FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH SMALL EVENTS.
UNCERTAINTY DERIVES FROM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. SURELY EXPECTING SNOW...BUT WITH ANY SHIFT N-S OF COLDER
AIR AND/OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RESULTS IN AREAS SHIFTING FROM
ADVISORY TO WARNING...OR VICE VERSA. ENOUGH TO JUST PULL YOUR HAIR
OUT. THEN THERE IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS SPED UP
SLIGHTLY. A SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME OF COURSE WOULD YIELD LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST RIGHT ON THE CUSP
OF HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

THE EVENT DOES TAKE PLACE MAINLY FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE IS NOT MUCH TRAFFIC
ON THE ROAD. IS THIS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT THAT WARRANTS WARNINGS? A
QUESTION TO STRUGGLE WITH AS WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY WHEN WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN MEETING OR EXCEEDING 6+ INCH CRITERIA. YET THE QUESTION
IN FRONT OF US IS WHERE WILL THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW FOCUS? HAVE
TO MAKE SOME SORT OF CALL...THE NEEDS OF THE MANY OUTWEIGH THE NEEDS
OF THE FEW.

ADVISORIES POSTED WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SNOW BUT LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW THE 6-INCH THRESHOLD FOR WARNING. WATCHES CONTINUE
AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO THE S-COAST TO COVER FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE AREA EITHER FALLING WITHIN OR IN EXCESS OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWS. AGAIN...6+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS
UNCERTAIN.

5) CLOSING NOTES...

SOME CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR E/SE MA AND
RI. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE
WITH SUNRISE MONDAY...COMMUTERS COULD ENCOUNTER SLICK AND SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS. SNOW COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OVER SE MA SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... THE BROAD UPPER FLOW SHOWS A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND
TROUGH IN THE WEST WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN USA COAST. WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS AT THE START OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN TROUGH MIGRATES EAST
DURING THE MIDWEEK AT WHICH TIME THE TWO STREAMS MERGE TO FORM A 140-
160 KT UPPER JET FEEDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS JET LINGERS OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF. THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAILIES...

MONDAY... SUNDAY STORM MOVES OFF PAST NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT IS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE LINGERS BELOW 800 MB THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RISING PRESSURE TO THE REGION BUT HAVE 1
MB/HOUR RISES HERE BY EVENING. PUT TOGETHER...EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND BUT WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RISE TO 15-20 KTS. MIXING REACHES
TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER...WHICH SUPPORTS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 35 KNOTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE -11C TO -14C...MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT MAX
SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO. WITH LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESP IN THE WEST...WE TENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
CONSENSUS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF TUESDAY BUT
MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH CLOUD LEVEL...SO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SPREADS PCPN INTO NEW YORK...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LIFT FORECAST AT 290K /ABOUT 730 MB AT THE TIME/ BUT
NONE BELOW THAT. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS PROGRESS
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF ANY PCPN FROM THE CLOUDS BY A FEW HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION LIFT MUCH OF THE NIGHT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURES START COLD DURING THE EVENING BUT SHOULD RISE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL CLIMB. EVEN
WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THERE IS
COLD GROUND AND A COLD SNOWPACK. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE WARMER TEMPS
TO SCREAM OVERHEAD WHILE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE REMAINS SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER. WE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A LITTLE FROM MODEL
VALUES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL THAT
SURFACE TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE 30S.

QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
TENDING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. THIS POINTS TO A MESSY STORM WITH
INITIAL SNOW ACCUMS OF SEVERAL INCHES FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO
MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION AND THEN A CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN BETWEEN THE SNOW BANKS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HANDING THE UPPER JET.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE JET OFFSHORE AND PUTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE JET OVERHEAD WITH OUR AREA
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE FIRST SCENARIO ENDS THE PCPN AND
COOLS THE AIR. THE SECOND SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT LIFT AND GENERATE
WAVES ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. OUR THURSDAY
FORECAST TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER FOR NOW.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR.
TEMPS ALOFT TREND UP ABOUT 10C ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING LESS CHILL AT
THE SURFACE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND COULD SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING.  SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OCCUR.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  PTYPE
PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE WHERE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WE DO THINK THAT AT
LEAST THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

BULK OF SNOW ENDS BY 8 OR 9Z TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE THE REGION
SHOULD ALREADY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z MONDAY.

KBOS TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...CONFIDENT IN OVERALL TRENDS BUT EXACT TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN.  WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 3 OR 4 PM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME IFR/MVFR IN SNOW EARLY MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
VFR AND DIMINISHING WIND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SKY COVER. MVFR TUESDAY EVENING BECOMING IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR IN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTH OF A HFD-BOS LINE. MVFR CIGS
AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE. THIS COULD GENERATE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ESPECIALLY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5
TO 10 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT DIMINISHING
DURING THE MORNING.  WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
APPROACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET. VSBYS WILL
BE REDUCED IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.  SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 TO 12 FEET. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...AND SEAS 5 TO 8
FEET. BOTH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ002>008-010-014-023-024-026.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ009-011>013-015>022.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL





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