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000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WAS DRY AT A GIVEN LOCATION...BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS SYNOPTIC
RAIN WAS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT BACK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/SOUTHERN RI...BUT IF IT DOES SHOULD BE RATHER
SHORT LIVED.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EVEN NEAR 80 IN A FEW
LOCALES.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.  REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT.  PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY FOG
CAN DEVELOP.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.  JUST A
LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS
A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1135 AM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SMALL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CT RIVER.  THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN CT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING DRIVE BY
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AT TIMES.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211455
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1055 AM UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WERE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/NORTH CENTRAL MA AT LATE MORNING.  THE REST OF THE REGION WAS DRY
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT THERE STILL WERE PEEKS OF SUN
AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN
LOCATION.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THOUGH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY.

THE OTHER AREA WE ARE WATCHING IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.
WHILE LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS
IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A BIT
FURTHER NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA
TOUCH 80.  DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE BRINGING A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER AFTER YESTERDAY/S
VERY CHILLY START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
918 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TODAY ALONG WITH MUGGY WEATHER.  DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 211313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
913 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

910 AM UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WAS DRY AT MID MORNING...A NARROW BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN
CT AND INTO CENTRAL MA.  THERE STILL WAS SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT NOT AS HEAVY WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A TAD.

OVERALL...SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY SEE THEM EXPAND A BIT INTO EASTERN MA/RHODE
ISLAND BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASES...DESPITE
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS.  NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT THOUGH AS MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A SPECIFIC LOCATION.

THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS THE SYNOPTIC RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE...APPEARS IT MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT PERHAPS GETTING A
BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT FOR A FEW HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TRICKY.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.  STILL RATHER HUMID THOUGH GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH EASTERN MA/RI...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME 80 DEGREE HIGHS WHERE SUN WAS OUT THIS MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  CERTAINLY A DRAMATIC CHANGE
BACK TO SUMMER WEATHER AFTER THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY YESTERDAY
MORNING!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN A LINE FROM SW CT
INTO SE NH. THIS AS THE OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF WEAKENS.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT SHOWERS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MORNING ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THESE MAY SLIDE ACROSS SE MA LATE
IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE W THROUGH EVENING. MAY SEE BREAKS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN A LINE FROM CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA
INTO SRN NH. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 210814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF...AND WARMER TEMPS THE LATTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...NYC AND THEN DRAPED ALONG THE NJ COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS ITS ROOTS IN A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES...ABOUT +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AT 6C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THESE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE RAP13 HAS BEEN SIMULATING THESE RAIN BANDS THE BEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR. THE RAP13 SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA...WITH
LESS ELSEWHERE. THE INVERTED TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE AND BEING REPLACED BY MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AFTER 18Z. THUS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS
MORNING.

AS SOME SURFACE HEATING MATERIALIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 65-70 ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 750 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND THIS MAY
PROVIDE A CAP AND RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS MORNING STRONGEST WIND FIELDS INCLUDING
0-1KM SHEAR ARE ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
COLOCATED. HENCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. AS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL AT LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
ADDITION DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLC TROUGH MAY CLIP
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A SUMMER-ISH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY NEARING 80 ALONG WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AND MILD AS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOESN/T
OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO JUST
EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE. STILL MILD AS COOLER
AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL MON NIGHT. SO EXPECTING HIGHS MON WELL INTO
THE 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
* COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED...MODERATING BY THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
21.00Z LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM DESPITE THE VARIANCE IN OVERALL PATTERN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS VARIANCE IS APPARENT IN
TELECONNECTIONS...WHERE ALTHOUGH AO/NAO ARE POSITIVE...HOW
STRONGLY POSITIVE IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION. IN SPITE OF
THIS...FAIRLY LOCKED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FAVORED AS
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONGWAVE TROF IN THE E GIVES WAY TO BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF A SRN STREAM
RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW/TEXAS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THEREFORE...AFTER A COOL AND
DIURNALLY CLOUDY START TO THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO STRONG
1035+ HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT HERE...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO WED...
BAFFIN ISLAND CUTOFF IS CONNECTED TO LONGWAVE TROF WITH BASE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE E THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL
DRAW WITH N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL
TUE AND MORESO ON WED THANKS TO A COOLER START. H85 TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO +6C EACH DAY...SO NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE LATE WEEK COOL
AIRMASS OF THIS PAST WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-UPPER 60S EACH
DAY. REGARDING LOWS...TUE NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE
TWO THANKS TO CENTER OF HIGH PRES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD YIELDING
WEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EITHER NIGHT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS PARTICULARLY IN NW MA
OR SW NH.

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY CRESTING OVER THE REGION WITH TIME. LOW-
MID LVL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SUGGESTING INCREASING TEMPS
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THEREFORE...MODERATE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS START ABOUT +9C THU...THEN MAY REACH
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C BY SUN. WITH MODERATION EACH DAY SUSPECT
THAT HIGHS WILL START NEAR NORMAL...INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH POINT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH...EVEN THOUGH THE BLOCKING PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE DRY HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES...THERE IS
AN INVERTED TROF IN THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
DRY PATTERN SUCH AS THIS GENERALLY SUGGESTS POSITIVE
FEEDBACK...MAINTAINING ITSELF. HOWEVER...WITH THE VARIANCE EVIDENT
IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK...MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THIS INVERTED TROF AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH COULD
YIELD A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS DO BRING THIS TROF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN DO OTHER MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT
AND WESTERN- CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN
MA TOWARD 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

MODEST S-SE WINDS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS DIMINISH. SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS THUS SCA IN
EFFECT. SSW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TOWARD SUNRISE.

MONDAY...

WEST WINDS YIELD GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH FROM LEFTOVER SOUTH SWELL COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST WIND
WAVES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

5-8 FT SEAS AND WINDS BOTH DIMINISH MON NIGHT...SUCH THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO END. ALTHOUGH THE SWELL MAY LINGER
A BIT INTO TUE...EVEN THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EARLY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99





000
FXUS61 KBOX 210625
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99





000
FXUS61 KBOX 202301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/99
MARINE...FRANK/99




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/99
MARINE...FRANK/99





000
FXUS61 KBOX 202002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 4Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 6Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 6Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 6Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 4Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 4Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/HR
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...HR
AVIATION...FRANK/HR
MARINE...FRANK/HR




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS
EVENING...AS SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST.  TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS.  HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.  MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 4Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 6Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 6Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 6Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 4Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 4Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.  SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/HR
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...HR
AVIATION...FRANK/HR
MARINE...FRANK/HR





000
FXUS61 KBOX 201745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

145 PM UPDATE...

WHILE PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION AT MID
AFTERNOON...MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAD PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  THIS HAS
ALLOWED MOST LOCALES TO SEE TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.  IT WAS A BIT COOLER IN SOUTHERN NH...BUT SHOULD SEE
TEMPS THERE RECOVER SOME IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.  THE REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES THROUGH 4 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS IN SOME LOCALES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 4Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS 12Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 6Z.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 6Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 4Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 4Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 201508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1107 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1105 AM UPDATE...

A DECK OF BROKEN LOW-MID CLOUDINESS COVERED SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN MA
AND NORTHERN CT AS OF LATE THIS MORNING.  THERE WAS ALSO SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS MOSTLY SUNNY.
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE THE BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SCATTER OUT TO SOME DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN +8C TO +10C AND INCREASED MIXING WAS
ALLOWING FOR A RAPID RECOVERY FROM THE VERY COLD START EARLY THIS
MORNING.  HIGHS SHOULD ACTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 201302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9 AM UPDATE...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AT MID MORNING IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT FOR
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS STILL COVERING SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN MA.  SHOULD
SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS ERODE TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY THIS MORNING...850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO BETWEEN +8C TO +10C AND INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID RECOVERY.  HIGHS SHOULD ACTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9 AM UPDATE...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AT MID MORNING IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT FOR
A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS STILL COVERING SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN MA.  SHOULD
SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS ERODE TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE VERY CHILLY START EARLY THIS MORNING...850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO BETWEEN +8C TO +10C AND INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A
RAPID RECOVERY.  HIGHS SHOULD ACTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 201057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN /ORH 46/...URBAN AREAS /BOS 47/ AND
COASTAL SITES /BID 55/ ARE CONSIDERABLE WARMER GIVEN S-SE WIND.
ITS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER RI AND EASTERN MA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. AS
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS SEAWARD RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
AND INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL ERODE SLOWLY COOL LAYER. PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS SPILLING INTO CT AND SW MA
THIS MORNING...THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE LEAD TO A FEW
SPOTS OF LOW 30S AT THE TYPICALLY COOLER OBS SITES. ITS LIKELY
THAT ONLY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO OF ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LEFT...AS
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS MARKING AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
DWPTS AS MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL EFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

ALONG WITH WITH THIS MOISTURE FLUX...MODEST WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES FURTHER
TO THE E TODAY. H85 TEMPS START THE DAY MAINLY AROUND +6C BUT END
CLOSE TO +12C. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FACTOR AROUND 10F. OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...THANKS TO FULL AFTERNOON
MIXING EXPECT HIGHS WILL RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 201057
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN /ORH 46/...URBAN AREAS /BOS 47/ AND
COASTAL SITES /BID 55/ ARE CONSIDERABLE WARMER GIVEN S-SE WIND.
ITS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER RI AND EASTERN MA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. AS
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS SEAWARD RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
AND INCREASING SSW WINDS WILL ERODE SLOWLY COOL LAYER. PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS SPILLING INTO CT AND SW MA
THIS MORNING...THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE LEAD TO A FEW
SPOTS OF LOW 30S AT THE TYPICALLY COOLER OBS SITES. ITS LIKELY
THAT ONLY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO OF ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LEFT...AS
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS MARKING AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
DWPTS AS MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL EFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

ALONG WITH WITH THIS MOISTURE FLUX...MODEST WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES FURTHER
TO THE E TODAY. H85 TEMPS START THE DAY MAINLY AROUND +6C BUT END
CLOSE TO +12C. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FACTOR AROUND 10F. OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...THANKS TO FULL AFTERNOON
MIXING EXPECT HIGHS WILL RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS SPILLING INTO CT AND SW MA
THIS MORNING...THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE LEAD TO A FEW
SPOTS OF LOW 30S AT THE TYPICALLY COOLER OBS SITES. ITS LIKELY
THAT ONLY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO OF ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LEFT...AS
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS MARKING AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
DWPTS AS MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL EFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

ALONG WITH WITH THIS MOISTURE FLUX...MODEST WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES FURTHER
TO THE E TODAY. H85 TEMPS START THE DAY MAINLY AROUND +6C BUT END
CLOSE TO +12C. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FACTOR AROUND 10F. OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...THANKS TO FULL AFTERNOON
MIXING EXPECT HIGHS WILL RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA.
AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS LINGER MONDAY BUT
THEN BECOME COOLER THAN NORMAL THEREAFTER BEFORE MODERATING LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS SPILLING INTO CT AND SW MA
THIS MORNING...THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE LEAD TO A FEW
SPOTS OF LOW 30S AT THE TYPICALLY COOLER OBS SITES. ITS LIKELY
THAT ONLY MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO OF ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LEFT...AS
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS MARKING AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL
DWPTS AS MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL EFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

ALONG WITH WITH THIS MOISTURE FLUX...MODEST WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES FURTHER
TO THE E TODAY. H85 TEMPS START THE DAY MAINLY AROUND +6C BUT END
CLOSE TO +12C. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY BY A FACTOR AROUND 10F. OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...THANKS TO FULL AFTERNOON
MIXING EXPECT HIGHS WILL RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE
WITH A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING OFF OF THE SE COAST. WHILE THE INCOMING AND
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W IS LIKELY TO KICK THIS WAVE TO THE N...THE
SPEED AND EXACT TRAJECTORY REMAIN IN QUESTION DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF BAROCLINICITY TO WORK WITH. 12Z GUIDANCE KEPT THE FINAL
UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND SFC WAVE MAINLY E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
WHILE 00Z RUNS HAVE NOW BROUGHT IT INSIDE BY 12Z. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5
INCHES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /ABOUT 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN TO THE...DO NOTICE AS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 06Z...THAT A POCKET OF MODEST INSTABILITY FOLLOWS.
MU CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000J/KG ABOVE THE NEAR SFC WARM
LAYER. THIS IS COLOCATED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS AND K-VALUES NEAR
30...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MODEST CONVECTION /SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE T-STORM/ SPILLS ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS /PARTICULARLY ABOUT 09Z-15Z/.
THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A POCKET OF HEAVY RAIN CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SRN CT-RI-SE MA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER N UNTIL THIS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED. THANKFULLY SHEAR IS MODEST AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS TO
NOTE...HENCE THE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ONGOING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE WHERE UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL JET IS STRONGER
COULD USURP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ALSO...SUSPECT AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
IN BETWEEN THE NRN SYSTEM AND THIS WEAKER OFFSHORE WAVE. MODELS DO
REFLECT THIS AS A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT H6 AND UP.

SUN...
THREAT FOR MODEST CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TO ABOUT MID DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WAVE MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A DRY SLOT WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
THE RESULT OF THE OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND A SLOW APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE W...ALONG WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SFC DWPTS. BREAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z MON...SUSPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE W. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH AROUND THE 80F MARK
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT THEN DRY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
* MILD SUN NIGHT/MON THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL MIDWEEK BEFORE
  MODERATING LATE NEXT WEEK

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WHICH FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL YIELD A LOW
RISK OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECISE
TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST STATES.

SUN NIGHT...TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST QG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THUS
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. IT WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN FROPA NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
CAPE COD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BLYR AS WEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO 70S INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1035 MB HIGH CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD BRINGING MILD DAYS BUT COOL NIGHTS. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVMOS DURING THE NIGHTS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WARM GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
POSSIBLE MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY SCT SHOWERS. MODEST W WIND MON 15-20 KT.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
S-SW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE NRN TIER OF WATERS AGAINST THE GULF OF
MAINE...BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW. SEAS MAINLY 4 FT OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
S WIND CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH
SEAS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE T-STORM OVER THE SE WATERS
AFTER 04Z ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN S AND EVEN SHIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION SEAS REACH THE 5 FT MARK ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEST W WIND MON INTO TUE THEN LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER
THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 200544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY SKC SKIES THIS MORNING HAS LEAD TO A COOL OVERNIGHT TEMP
NOTING A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING LOW 30S...BUT THESE ARE THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS WITH AREAS SURROUNDING ABOVE FREEZING PER MESO-OBS.
THEREFORE...STILL SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE...BUT NOTE THAT THERE
IS INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME EVEN IN THE FORM
OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS ABOUT TO SNAKE UP THE CT VALLEY.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MINS ARE LIKELY AS COOL THEY ARE GOING TO BE
WITH POSSIBLE SLOW RISE FROM THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 200544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY SKC SKIES THIS MORNING HAS LEAD TO A COOL OVERNIGHT TEMP
NOTING A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING LOW 30S...BUT THESE ARE THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS WITH AREAS SURROUNDING ABOVE FREEZING PER MESO-OBS.
THEREFORE...STILL SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE...BUT NOTE THAT THERE
IS INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME EVEN IN THE FORM
OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS ABOUT TO SNAKE UP THE CT VALLEY.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MINS ARE LIKELY AS COOL THEY ARE GOING TO BE
WITH POSSIBLE SLOW RISE FROM THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED FOR AT TYPICALLY PRONE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS S-SW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT TODAY.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TO START...BUT SOME TERMINALS SEE MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. BEST CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE CT AND W MA TERMINALS...BUT SOME LOWER CATEGORIES
FURTHER E NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SRN CT/RI AND SE MA.

SUN...
MVFR/VFR START GIVES WAY TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TODAY...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK. MAIN CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO BRING TEMPS AND DWPTS UP TO CURRENT
TRENDS. AT ISSUE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MAINLY IN SW NH
AND NW MA. DWPTS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED AGAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS TO THE LOW 30S IN THIS REGION HOWEVER DO NOT SLOW UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME OF THESE SPOTS DO SEE PATCHY FROST
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT STILL MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK. MAIN CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO BRING TEMPS AND DWPTS UP TO CURRENT
TRENDS. AT ISSUE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MAINLY IN SW NH
AND NW MA. DWPTS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED AGAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS TO THE LOW 30S IN THIS REGION HOWEVER DO NOT SLOW UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. THEREFORE...STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME OF THESE SPOTS DO SEE PATCHY FROST
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT STILL MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

DEW POINTS MADE A DRAMATIC RISE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM. THIS WAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW...AS WELL AS AN END TO DAYTIME MIXING. STILL THINKING THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT IS MARGINAL...AS DEW
POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT BE VERY PATCHY FROST
AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

DEW POINTS MADE A DRAMATIC RISE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM. THIS WAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW...AS WELL AS AN END TO DAYTIME MIXING. STILL THINKING THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT IS MARGINAL...AS DEW
POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT BE VERY PATCHY FROST
AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A KMHT-KORH-KBDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KBID-KHYA-KCQX LINE IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN
ACROSS E COASTAL MA INTO E RI WHERE OCEAN CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
ONSHORE WITH THE NE WIND. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO EAST. SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME REPORTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER CT VALLEY INTO NE CT/INTERIOR RI. NOTING RATHER LOW
DEWPTS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS S NH INTO N
CENTRAL MA...RANGING TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST...
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THESE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS AT 3-4KFT ACROSS S COASTAL
MA/E RI WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED
SO WHERE SMALL CRAFTS WERE STILL IN EFFECT HAVE BEEN DROPPED. KEPT
SMALL CRAFTS GOING FOR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET INTO THIS EVENING FOR LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 192048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN
ACROSS E COASTAL MA INTO E RI WHERE OCEAN CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
ONSHORE WITH THE NE WIND. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO EAST. SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME REPORTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER CT VALLEY INTO NE CT/INTERIOR RI. NOTING RATHER LOW
DEWPTS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS S NH INTO N
CENTRAL MA...RANGING TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST...
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THESE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN
FORECAST.

EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES CENTER WILL CREST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION...AS LIGHT E WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AND DROP OFF IN
THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF S
NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA. AS NOTED ABOVE...DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HOW QUICKLY THESE RISE OVERNIGHT...AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. IF TEMPS FALL LOWER THAN
FORECAST...POSSIBLE SHORT FUSED HEADLINES FOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. THIS ASPECT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR...DRY AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS.
MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MILD S-SW FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPS WILL RESPONSE TO THIS AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS REGION. THE SW FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY /AROUND 20 KT/
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE. WILL ALSO NOTICE INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPTS STEADILY
RISE DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND.

NOTING A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
MID ATLC AND SE U.S. COAST...ALONG WITH LOW PRES OFF THE GA/FL
COAST EARLY SAT. SOME MOISTURE MAY START TO MOVE UP TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE UP THE
COAST...A PIECE OF MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
RI/NE CT THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE S WINDS ALONG WITH MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WELL. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF
A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SINCE
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL
PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW.

THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE STILL PROJECTS THE DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THIS COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN
LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FURTHER INTENSIFIES THIS JET
MONDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM
DISTINCTLY SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW
ENGLAND. AND THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNALS THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD BE CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
COASTAL SURFACE LOW...WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL.

AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AND BACK
BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ALSO AS BEFORE...WE
KEPT THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE AND WENT NO HIGHER THAN A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

ONCE OUR REGION IS CLEAR OF BOTH THIS COASTAL LOW AND COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEANS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MANCHESTER NH-WORCESTER MA-HARTFORD CT LINE. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NANTUCKET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VINEYARD AND THE CAPE.
THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE TIMING IS ALTERED BY ONLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...EITHER FASTER OR SLOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA TO
TRACK THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW
AND FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM
SUNDAY EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY TOWARDS
NORTHWEST MA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NH...COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY. OTHERWISE DRIER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTHWEST MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE
INCREASING A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS AT 3-4KFT ACROSS S COASTAL
MA/E RI WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS HAVE SUBSIDED
SO WHERE SMALL CRAFTS WERE STILL IN EFFECT HAVE BEEN DROPPED. KEPT
SMALL CRAFTS GOING FOR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET INTO THIS EVENING FOR LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY VEER TO E-SE
DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...S-SW WIND FLOW TAKES OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY S WINDS IN PLACE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAY
LINGER EARLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191446
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS
WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
BANDS OF OCEAN CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO E RI/E COASTAL AND SE MA
THIS MORNING ON N-NE WINDS THAT REMAIN RATHER GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS. NOTING THE CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE FURTHER
INLAND AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE OCEAN WINDS DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES AT 14Z HAVE RECOVERED TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AFTER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S WELL INLAND /MAINLY
ACROSS S NH/ TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE SE COAST OF MA TO COASTAL
RI.

H85 TEMPS REMAIN COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...
RANGING FROM AROUND 0C ACROSS S NH TO +3-4C ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
AROUND MIDDAY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO E AND DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD SEE H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH COULD REACH THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DEWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT...ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL AREAS.
THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH N-NE WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N-S THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. LINGERING WIND WAVES AT 5-6 FT WILL
CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE THEM SUBSIDE
E OF CAPE ANN /BUOY 44029/. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFTS FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR FOR DECREASING TRENDS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING SMALL CRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS INTO THE EVENING ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191446
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS
WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM UPDATE...
BANDS OF OCEAN CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO E RI/E COASTAL AND SE MA
THIS MORNING ON N-NE WINDS THAT REMAIN RATHER GUSTY AS COLDER AIR
MOVES ACROSS. NOTING THE CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE FURTHER
INLAND AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING S OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE OCEAN WINDS DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES AT 14Z HAVE RECOVERED TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AFTER
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S WELL INLAND /MAINLY
ACROSS S NH/ TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE SE COAST OF MA TO COASTAL
RI.

H85 TEMPS REMAIN COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...
RANGING FROM AROUND 0C ACROSS S NH TO +3-4C ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
AROUND MIDDAY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO E AND DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD SEE H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH COULD REACH THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DEWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT...ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL AREAS.
THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH N-NE WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N-S THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. LINGERING WIND WAVES AT 5-6 FT WILL
CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE THEM SUBSIDE
E OF CAPE ANN /BUOY 44029/. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFTS FOR NOW.
WILL MONITOR FOR DECREASING TRENDS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING SMALL CRAFTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFTS INTO THE EVENING ON THE
OUTER WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/EVT/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 191128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF
SW NH...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY UP UNTIL 8 AM. AS
SOME WIND DECOUPLING TOOK PLACE OVER THE NW INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES
DROPPED RATHER QUICKLY WITH 7 AM TEMPERATURES AT AFN 32...AT EEN
34 AND ORE 35. SOME SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAD TO TWEAK MANY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO AT THE OUTSET THIS MORNING BUT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD SKC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
TIME. A FEW MORE LOW-MID CLOUDS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING THERE AS WELL. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL BE SEEING THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER IN SPITE OF THIS A MIXED BACK OF COOL N-NE FLOW...H85
TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND +3C BY PEAK HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
CREST OF HIGH PRES LIMITING MIXING DEPTH WILL ALL LEAD TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. IN FACT...EVEN IF FULL MIXING TO H85 IS
ALLOWED...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY AT ABOUT THE MID 60S.
ACTUAL HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT...ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL AREAS.
THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND LINGERING WIND-WAVES AROUND 5-6 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY...AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF
SW NH...WILL NEED TO KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY UP UNTIL 8 AM. AS
SOME WIND DECOUPLING TOOK PLACE OVER THE NW INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES
DROPPED RATHER QUICKLY WITH 7 AM TEMPERATURES AT AFN 32...AT EEN
34 AND ORE 35. SOME SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAD TO TWEAK MANY TEMPERATURES
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO AT THE OUTSET THIS MORNING BUT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD SKC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
TIME. A FEW MORE LOW-MID CLOUDS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING THERE AS WELL. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL BE SEEING THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER IN SPITE OF THIS A MIXED BACK OF COOL N-NE FLOW...H85
TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND +3C BY PEAK HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
CREST OF HIGH PRES LIMITING MIXING DEPTH WILL ALL LEAD TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. IN FACT...EVEN IF FULL MIXING TO H85 IS
ALLOWED...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY AT ABOUT THE MID 60S.
ACTUAL HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT...ESPECIALLY SE COASTAL AREAS.
THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND LINGERING WIND-WAVES AROUND 5-6 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY...AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD SKC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
TIME. A FEW MORE LOW-MID CLOUDS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING THERE AS WELL. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL BE SEEING THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER IN SPITE OF THIS A MIXED BACK OF COOL N-NE FLOW...H85
TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND +3C BY PEAK HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
CREST OF HIGH PRES LIMITING MIXING DEPTH WILL ALL LEAD TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. IN FACT...EVEN IF FULL MIXING TO H85 IS
ALLOWED...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY AT ABOUT THE MID 60S.
ACTUAL HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE WINDS RECEDE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND LINGERING WIND-WAVES AROUND 5-6 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY...AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EARLY MORNING FROST SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD SKC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
TIME. A FEW MORE LOW-MID CLOUDS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT BUT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING THERE AS WELL. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL BE SEEING THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER IN SPITE OF THIS A MIXED BACK OF COOL N-NE FLOW...H85
TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND +3C BY PEAK HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE FROM
CREST OF HIGH PRES LIMITING MIXING DEPTH WILL ALL LEAD TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY. IN FACT...EVEN IF FULL MIXING TO H85 IS
ALLOWED...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY AT ABOUT THE MID 60S.
ACTUAL HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE. DRY WX PREVAILS ALTHOUGH WEAK INVERTED TROF MAY LEAD TO
SOME BUILDING CLOUD COVER JUST W OF THE BOX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MORE ON THE IMPACTS OF THAT IN A BIT.

THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR COOL TEMPS AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIAL FROST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE MORE RIPE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN THU NIGHT THANKS TO A MUCH WEAKENED PRES
GRADIENT UNDER THE HIGH PRES AND ANOTHER START OF MAINLY SKC
SKIES. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO CONSIDER...ONE
BEING THE CLOUD COVER JUST MENTIONED...SHOULD THAT BUILD FAR
ENOUGH INLAND OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS COULD LIMIT THE FALLING TEMPS. MODELS DO INDICATE
THE TYPICAL DWPT RISE UNDER THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH EXITS TO THE
E...BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY DRY
START AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH ITSELF. WHILE EACH OF
THESE MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT...DO NOTICE THAT BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS SUPPORT SOME MID 30S PARTICULARLY IN NW MA AND SW NH AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER E MA SUBURBS. THEREFORE...MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IN
PLACE...BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY WISH TO TAKE
ACTION TODAY NONETHELESS.

SAT...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES SLOW SLIDE TO THE E BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL AS
INVERTED RIDGING. THIS IS ENHANCED BY SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
APPROACHING OCEAN SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TO THE W.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE W THROUGH THE DAY...FEEL MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY. MID LVL TEMPS MODERATE UNDER S-SW FLOW TO ABOUT +8C TO +10C
WHICH WITH FULL MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND SLOW RISE IN THESE
MID LVL TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL HIGHS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
* THEN PROBABLY DRY ALL NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN
THE FORECAST IS THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF
NANTUCKET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY CONTAIN TROPICAL PROCESSES...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS LOW. WE
NOTE A DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WITH THE
COASTAL LOW FROM 80 TO 100+ KT IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM DISTINCTLY
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL WELL PAST NEW ENGLAND. AND
THERE IS A STRONG HINT THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE
CAUGHT IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND COASTAL SURFACE
LOW WITH RESULTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD HAVE A MORE DISTINCT IDENTITY AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...THEN ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED
AND BACK BUILDING OF THE UPPER JET TO AT LEAST BRING A HIGHER THREAT
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SE NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW PLAN TO TAKE A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH POPS AND QPF BUT KEEP IN MIND THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. ONCE THE LOW OFF THE COAST PASSES BY AND THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OUR AREA. WE WOULD ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DIURNAL RANGES...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MILDER AS RETURN FLOW ABOUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF AREA AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MUCH OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TWO NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH WHERE AIR
MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MORE MOIST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTEND TO INDICATE CHANCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NW MA AND SW NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN SE AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE MAY STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A STRENGTHENING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PER OVERVIEW SECTION WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND
UPON INTERACTION BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES FAR NW AND
FAR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KT 0 TO 6 KM SUNDAY
EVENING AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY NW SECTIONS...COULD
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

MONDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR SE AND OTHERWISE DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAY BE BREEZY FROM THE
NW DUE TO COMBINATION OF MODERATELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST SW NH
AND NW MA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WE WILL BE INCREASING A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY
CREDIBLE RAIN THREAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE WINDS RECEDE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A MHT-ORH-BDL LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF A BID-HYA-CQX LINE IN AREAS OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND LINGERING WIND-WAVES AROUND 5-6 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS SUGGEST THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY...AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND...ALONG WITH SEAS...DIMINISH.

SAT...
S-SW WINDS DOMINATE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TOO WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LOWER NEAR SHORE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLE BUILDING SWELL
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE SEAS
BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS AT LEAST THE OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY
HAVE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS EAST SIDE...BUT PROBABLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DOODY/THOMPSON
MARINE...DOODY/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. NNE WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE BEHIND THIS FRONT EXCEPT IN THE
VALLEYS OF NW MA AND SW NH WHICH SHOWS SOME DECOUPLING.
THEREFORE...FORECAST AND FROST POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE WINDS RECEDE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.
WINDS MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 190539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. NNE WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE BEHIND THIS FRONT EXCEPT IN THE
VALLEYS OF NW MA AND SW NH WHICH SHOWS SOME DECOUPLING.
THEREFORE...FORECAST AND FROST POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYPICAL TERMINALS.

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE WINDS RECEDE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW ON SAT...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.
WINDS MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

SFC OBS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT
20-30 SM FROM THE S COAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH RISING PRES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND E HALF OF THE REGION...SUSTAINING AT
ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...DO CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED ACROSS THE NW AND CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EVEN ACROSS SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME DEEPER VALLEYS IN
NY/VT ARE ALREADY SHOWING CALM CONDITIONS. LATEST MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS DECOUPLING CONTINUING TO EXPEND TOWARD THE
SE...SO PORTIONS OF SRN NH AND NW MA MAY STILL DECOUPLE FULLY
LATER ON. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FROST ADVISORY LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
DWPTS TO BETTER MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKIES TO
REFLECT TRENDS IN LEFTOVER LOWER CLOUDINESS FROM THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

SFC OBS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT
20-30 SM FROM THE S COAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH RISING PRES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND E HALF OF THE REGION...SUSTAINING AT
ABOUT 10 KT. HOWEVER...DO CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED ACROSS THE NW AND CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EVEN ACROSS SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME DEEPER VALLEYS IN
NY/VT ARE ALREADY SHOWING CALM CONDITIONS. LATEST MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS DECOUPLING CONTINUING TO EXPEND TOWARD THE
SE...SO PORTIONS OF SRN NH AND NW MA MAY STILL DECOUPLE FULLY
LATER ON. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FROST ADVISORY LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS
DWPTS TO BETTER MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKIES TO
REFLECT TRENDS IN LEFTOVER LOWER CLOUDINESS FROM THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. BROUGHT
NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. BROUGHT
NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH
SWELL INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
452 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE S COAST THIS EVENING. NOTING A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP ACROSS SW NH/N CENTRAL AND
NW MA. APPEAR TO BE NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT SEEING ANY
REPORTS OF RAIN AT ASOS SITES. VERY DRY IN PLACE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW QUICK SPRINKLES INLAND AS THE FRONT PASSES.

NOTING HIGHEST TEMP SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OF 76 DEGREES
AT KPVD...THOUGH OTHER NON-ASOS SITES MAY BE A BIT MILDER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED
BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE
THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY
WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 182052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
452 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE S COAST THIS EVENING. NOTING A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP ACROSS SW NH/N CENTRAL AND
NW MA. APPEAR TO BE NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT SEEING ANY
REPORTS OF RAIN AT ASOS SITES. VERY DRY IN PLACE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW QUICK SPRINKLES INLAND AS THE FRONT PASSES.

NOTING HIGHEST TEMP SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OF 76 DEGREES
AT KPVD...THOUGH OTHER NON-ASOS SITES MAY BE A BIT MILDER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED
BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE
THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY
WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




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