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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENG...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH
CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241129
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
EXITING OCCLUSION. THIS LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
KICKER...FINALLY ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A FEW MORE SHOWERS LEFT
IN THE HOPPER AS IT DOES SO THOUGH...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME MUCH FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR
OUT...BUT DO FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND
A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM  THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS
FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-250-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 232316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MA AND RI...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUED IN THESE BANDS
OF SHOWERS. IT WAS STILL QUITE GUSTY IN THE EAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING PAST 35 MPH RIGHT AT THE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS
EVENING A BIT OVER CT AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/GAF
AVIATION...JWD/GAF/HR
MARINE...JWD/GAF/HR
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231418
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING *

FORECAST LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MATCH
CURRENT RADAR/OBS TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOSED LOW S OF NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING SURFACE LOW SE OF NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

1) URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING

RADAR SHOWED MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOCUS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE ACROSS SW NH AND W MA WHERE
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED...BUT THIS SHOULD PUSH OUT
OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
POSTED AS WELL.

ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS S OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MODELS SHOW FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
WIDESPREAD THREAT TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING.

2) STRONG WINDS:

STILL SEEING STRONG WINDS /NEAR 40KT/ FROM BOSTON TO NE MA. WIND
FIELD ALOFT DIMINISHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY GIVEN IMPACT ON FULLY LEAVED TREES.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


3) COASTAL FLOODING:

SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NE GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 231132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

415 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK INTO
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NH...SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. DETAILS
ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM HAZARDS ARE BELOW.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LESSENING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING INTO
 THU MORNING ***

2 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK NORTHWESTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS AND
SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WITHIN
THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
ACROSS EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NH. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.

OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NH/NORTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU 12Z AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WIND HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     014>016-019.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-012-
     013-017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237-
     254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

730 PM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM PLYMOUTH UP TO ESSEX
COUNTY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF
THE FULLY LEAVED TREES...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DO DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS PACKAGE WERE TO THE WINDS AND THE HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULERNABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 221120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM E TO W THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ALONG DEVELOPING NELY LLJ AND
TROWAL. WILL LIKELY SEE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL STRONG
SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT/INSTABILITY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION NEAR
NJ/NYC BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY. TRIED TO TIME POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. LOWERED THEM TOWARD
LATEST LAV AND BC GUIDANCE THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A SOAKING WIND
SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD/APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TAKING AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL/DAMP SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...


FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220143
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
WORCESTER COUNTY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. THUS FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AND FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN DUAL POL WHICH ESTIMATED A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 5.9 INCHES
NEAR WARE...WHILE LEGACY MUCH LESS AT 2.9 INCHES. LEGACY MATCHES
UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING RADARS AND IT PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE
THAN THE DUAL POL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL THIS EVENING /7
KFT/.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PA WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING
AT OKX LONG ISLAND INDICATES A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

930 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 212031
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS GENERALLY DRY.  WE
ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAK OUT ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.

OVERALL...JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK
OF THE FORCING TO OUR NORTH.  AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE
TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK





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