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000
FXUS61 KBOX 020159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE STAYING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO STRAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES TO BRING
THEM CLOSER IN LINE WITH CURRENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE STAYING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO STRAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES TO BRING
THEM CLOSER IN LINE WITH CURRENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A HANGING TROWAL FORMATION ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF
MEANDERING ALONG THE S COASTAL REGION CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH
MOIST COLUMN /PWATS LOCALLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO YIELD
BANDS OF RAINFALL STRETCHING ACROSS THE WHOLE BOX CWA. THE NE FLOW
CONTINUES TOO...STREAMING IN PLENTY OF MARINE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS TROWAL/SFC INVERTED TROF FEATURE WILL BE
DEFINING THE OVERNIGHT WX.

ALREADY WE ARE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF ACK WHERE A MODEST AXIS OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY
DEFINED BY A DRY SLOT ALONG THE UPPER CUTOFF EXISTS. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS IS ELEVATED IT IS ENOUGH TO
INITIATE LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS IS ALSO ALONG A
SLOWLY INCREASING ELY LLJ...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KT AT H92 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE /PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/ THE ROBUST LLJ AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDER THE
SLOWLY ERD MOVING CUTOFF ALL SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN AROUND SE MA. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
NOW GENERALLY AGREE ON A LOCALLY HIGH QPF BULLSEYE ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPARENT. THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS CONTINUING/INCREASING OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE POCKETS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SPOTS /SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW/. IN FACT...REPORTS ALREADY INDICATE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN
IN THE WATCH AREA. THE FLUX IN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROF
DOES SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS COULD LIE OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL SO CLOSE AND CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR PRIMARILY THE URBAN
FLOOD THREAT.

OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODIC RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE E.
ALTHOUGH DO NOTE THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES
ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN CONTROL. THEREFORE...BY 12Z THE FOCUS MAINLY
MAY BE AWAY FROM NW MA AND SW NH.

MINS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 012010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A HANGING TROWAL FORMATION ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF
MEANDERING ALONG THE S COASTAL REGION CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH
MOIST COLUMN /PWATS LOCALLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO YIELD
BANDS OF RAINFALL STRETCHING ACROSS THE WHOLE BOX CWA. THE NE FLOW
CONTINUES TOO...STREAMING IN PLENTY OF MARINE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS TROWAL/SFC INVERTED TROF FEATURE WILL BE
DEFINING THE OVERNIGHT WX.

ALREADY WE ARE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF ACK WHERE A MODEST AXIS OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY
DEFINED BY A DRY SLOT ALONG THE UPPER CUTOFF EXISTS. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS IS ELEVATED IT IS ENOUGH TO
INITIATE LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS IS ALSO ALONG A
SLOWLY INCREASING ELY LLJ...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KT AT H92 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE /PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/ THE ROBUST LLJ AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDER THE
SLOWLY ERD MOVING CUTOFF ALL SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN AROUND SE MA. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
NOW GENERALLY AGREE ON A LOCALLY HIGH QPF BULLSEYE ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPARENT. THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS CONTINUING/INCREASING OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE POCKETS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SPOTS /SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW/. IN FACT...REPORTS ALREADY INDICATE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN
IN THE WATCH AREA. THE FLUX IN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROF
DOES SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS COULD LIE OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL SO CLOSE AND CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR PRIMARILY THE URBAN
FLOOD THREAT.

OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODIC RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE E.
ALTHOUGH DO NOTE THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES
ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN CONTROL. THEREFORE...BY 12Z THE FOCUS MAINLY
MAY BE AWAY FROM NW MA AND SW NH.

MINS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 010753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF LIFT THAT
WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL MOIST AIR IN
OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS.  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS
OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP.  WHILE WE CAN/T DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE
LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CIGS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS.  VSBYS
ARE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
LOCALIZED FOG.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS RAIN ENDS.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...REDUCED
POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE WAITING
FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THERE IS STILL THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. OTHER THAN THE CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER...MADE ONLY
MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END.  A FEW
STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST TO
MVFR THEN TO VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.  SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOX...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 300201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED ALL THE
WAY DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NE. THE FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. WHILE FOG SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN
MASS AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD. THIS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 292301
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
AS THIS FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND WITH A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST. IN FACT BVY IS
DOWN TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND BOSTON DOWN TO 5SM. PER WEBCAMS
ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
WESTERWARD THE FOG WILL GET. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR- ESQUE
COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A
MIX OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED
INTO WED NIGHT. ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN
EASTERN AREAS AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY...
QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

WEEKEND...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND
ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS IT IS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW PLAN ON KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL
LINE UP WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS OCCURRED AS THE TWO MOISTURE STREAMS...ONE TO THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND BACKDOOR-ESQUE COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW PRES. USING A MIX
OF CURRENT SFC OBS AND MSAS ISALLOBARIC FLOW...THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN SLIDING INTO THE REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED NEAR THE CT VALLEY INTO SE MA. NE FLOW HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SW MOVEMENT AND OUT OF THE BOX CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COOLER MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 60F WILL BE UNDERCUTTING WARMER
MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THE REMNANTS OF A MID LVL RIDGE IS
ALSO PRESENT AS A MID LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NE TO SW. LIKED PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/S THINKING ON THIS SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD FAIRLY
CLOSELY. IT LOOKS LIKE...AT LEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED N-NE
FLOW THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR SFC MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG
IN FAVOR OF DRIZZLE CAUSING VSBY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG CAN/T BE RULED THANKS TO THE COOLER MOIST
FLOW MOVING INLAND. BY EARLY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROF LOOKS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVING S OF THE REGION AND
THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
-SHRA RATHER THAN DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECT THIS AS INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE
OVERNIGHT.

LOWS OVERNIGHT DIP BACK INTO INTO THE 50S...NOT AS COOL AS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
INVERTED TROF AND N-NE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
SO IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY COME TO AN END. IN FACT...-SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE E. HOWEVER...THANKS TO SOME DIURNAL BL
MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WIDELY SCT -SHRA IN THE E. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS THERE IS LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH EVEN 2M TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN RECENT RUNS INTO THE LOW-MID
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH IT/S BASE
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. THEREFORE...GIVEN SIMILAR
SETUP AND COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE...FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS THIS WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ON WED AND THU
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION

OVERVIEW...

FALL IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVERALL THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ISSUES DOWN AT THE SURFACE. THE TREND FOR THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS THAT THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHERE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CMC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THEN THE EC
WHERE THE UKMET IS THE IN BETWEEN MODEL. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE DID A MODEL BLEND AS WELL AS HPC FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.

HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AVERAGE TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR WED AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHER
QPF.


DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS. EASTERN MA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ON WED INTO WED NIGHT.
ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR THURSDAY ESP IN EASTERN AREAS AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WED AS THE
MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.


FRIDAY...

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.


WEEKEND...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS THE EC SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THIS PORTION. NOTE THAT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES GET STRETCHED AND IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE OTHER POINT IS THAT THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY...HOW STRONG WILL IT GET AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON
KEEPING CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH...CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HOPEFULLY GUIDANCE WILL LINE UP WITHIN
THE COMING DAYS.

TRENDING WITH THE GFS/CMC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY SUN MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR
CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU ALONG THE E COAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY TO VFR. FRIDAY WILL BE VFR.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IN A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
WINDS SHIFT NE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE ANN. ELSEWHERE...LESS OF A RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH INCREASING RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG
AND LOWER VSBYS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
NE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL YIELD A GRADUALLY
BUILDING SWELL WHICH COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THIS RISK.
OTHERWISE...NE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SWELL WILL HELP
BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 OR 6 FEET WILL KEEP
THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASE IN GUSTS...CLOSE TO 30 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...NEAR 7 FEET. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. USING A MIX OF SFC
OBS AND ISALLOBARS FROM MSAS...IT APPEARS THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED
INTO CENTRAL MA AND IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE WORCESTER
HILLS/MONADNOCKS AND THE CT VALLEY. IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS
PUSH TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE COLDER AIR IS SHALLOW...BUT NOT
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO
BE S...SW OF THE AREA BY EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. USING A MIX OF SFC
OBS AND ISALLOBARS FROM MSAS...IT APPEARS THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED
INTO CENTRAL MA AND IS HUNG UP BETWEEN THE WORCESTER
HILLS/MONADNOCKS AND THE CT VALLEY. IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS
PUSH TO THE E EVEN THOUGH THE COLDER AIR IS SHALLOW...BUT NOT
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO
BE S...SW OF THE AREA BY EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF LOWER CATEGORIES THIS EVENING.

INTO TONIGHT...
VFR WILL GRADUALLY DIP TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
START IN NE MA AND SE NH...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SW...REACHING THE CT VALLEY AND S COASTS THE LATEST.
THEN...MVFR/IFR REMAINS IN CONTROL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER
PERSISTENT NELY WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING-MID DAY. SOME SHOWERS /HEAVIER
THAN THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT TOO HEAVY/ ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS E MA AND RI. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.


KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.  FIRST MVFR CIGS LIKELY 20-22Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

IT/S A TALE OF TWO MOISTURE STREAMS AND A WEAK FOCUS FOR LIFT THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE N ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MARINE
MOSISTURE IN FROM THE S. MEANWHILE...OBS AND MSAS CURRENTLY
SUGGEST BACKDOOR-LIKE COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE BOX CWA AT THIS
HOUR BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE S THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO NELY AND COOLER
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...UNTIL IT DOES SO...GRADUAL
CLEARING OF SOME EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SPOTS AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE UNTIL THE OVRNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COOLER AIR TO REALLY MOVE
INLAND. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND SKIES AS OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

IT/S A TALE OF TWO MOISTURE STREAMS AND A WEAK FOCUS FOR LIFT THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE N ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MARINE
MOSISTURE IN FROM THE S. MEANWHILE...OBS AND MSAS CURRENTLY
SUGGEST BACKDOOR-LIKE COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE BOX CWA AT THIS
HOUR BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE S THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO NELY AND COOLER
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...UNTIL IT DOES SO...GRADUAL
CLEARING OF SOME EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER SHOULD STILL ALLOW SFC
TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SPOTS AS IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE UNTIL THE OVRNIGHT HOURS FOR THE COOLER AIR TO REALLY MOVE
INLAND. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND SKIES AS OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 291153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
753 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY INTO NE CT IS
STARTING TO LIFT AT 11Z...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR E
MA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z-15Z.

NOTING EITHER CALM OR LIGHT W-NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON W-SW WINDS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO
80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO NE
MA AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS OF INTERIOR E MA WILL BURN OFF
BY 14Z-15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER
TO 00Z. POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE
TONIGHT RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25
KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING
WILL TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290914
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE
I-495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT W-SW
WIND PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...
1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS
TODAY 75 TO 80 BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND
INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E-NE AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A
SPRING BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN
IN THE L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE SPRING. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
  MOST OF THE WEEK
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOK OCCUR FROM WED INTO THU
* UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER WIDE SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH GENERAL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNALED
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MARITIMES AND EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME
AGREEMENT AT LEAST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AS H5 TROUGH DIGS OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. BROAD
CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK...BUT TENDS TO BE
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...THIS KEEPS A COOL...MOIST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS ALSO LEAVES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...HAVE CARRIED
ONLY LIGHT QPF...AS IT LOOKS LIKE NOT TOO MUCH ENERGY OR LIFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. MOST OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOME FORCING WITH ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR WED INTO THU WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING UPON MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD CUTOFF UPPER
LOW...MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE W LATE THIS WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS IN
QUESTION THOUGH.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...BRINGING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
BY THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TO OCCUR WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO SEE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY
FOG. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM DEVELOPING BROAD
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS
TO COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...MAINLY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERS. CURRENT
THINKING ON QPF IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEE A BIT MORE OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THOUGH... ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PLYMOUTH SOUTH TO CAPE
COD AND THE S COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL
COOLER DUE TO THE WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS SW OUT OF QUEBEC
AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING APPEARS TO WORK DOWN THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REBOUND A BIT...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...THOUGH A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...THOUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS NY STATE FRI NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WAVE ON THIS FRONT MAY
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...WITH BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING SAT. WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN. STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDE MODEL SOLUTION VARIANCE ON TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE A SWATH OF DECENT QPF...BUT QUESTIONS ON THIS AS WELL
DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. FOR NOW...HAVE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
SAT NIGHT WITH DRIER BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. E-NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAY SEE LEFTOVER MVFR CIG/VSBYS EARLY THU
ALONG THE E COAST...OTHERWISE LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NE ALONG WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST E-NE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THEN SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. E-NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO BUILD...UP
TO 6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GUSTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME DURING THU UP TO
25 KT. NE FETCH CONTINUES...WITH SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD. MAY
REACH 8 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OR EVEN HIGHER BY LATE THU
OR FRI.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON





000
FXUS61 KBOX 290806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPERATURES...BRING
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOLER NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ONE OR
TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REGION. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PREDAWN HOURS...

PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR CT VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE I-495
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS AS DEW PTS IN THE
U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WSW WIND PRECLUDE
COOLER TEMPS.

AFTER SUNRISE...

1032 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY. THIS SENDS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER NOT QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80
BEFORE TEMPS DROP THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S.

THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL BACKDOOR FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE ENE
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS A SPRING
BACKDOOR FRONT AS WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE REMAIN IN THE
L60S...COMPARED TO WATER TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE SPRING.
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD THE
RISK OF A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE...WITH
HIGHEST RISK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
COULD TURN OUT TO BE COOLER AS 2 METER TEMPS FROM NAM/GFS AND SREF
ALL INDICATE MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE U50S OVER NORTHEAST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE.

TODAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MA WATERS FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GREATEST RISK OF 25 KT ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS. THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS.

TONIGHT...VSBY MAY LOWER IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS. NE WINDS SLACKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LARGEST SEAS
ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODEST ENE WINDS. VSBY MAY BE LIMITED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS.
A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MILD OVERNIGHT IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 1 AM! DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ARE COMBINING WITH A DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WSW WIND...PRECLUDING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END TODAY AS A FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS.
A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND ONE OR TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MAY PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT AND POSSIBLY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MILD OVERNIGHT IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 1 AM! DEW
PTS IN THE U50S AND L60S ARE COMBINING WITH A DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WSW WIND...PRECLUDING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS.
THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO
WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE
BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE
AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF
FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
  WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
  THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF A
WEAK TROF AND AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE THREATENING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADING INTO TUESDAY BUT MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH. SIMILARLY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MID WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN. A
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILT TROF IS ALSO SHOWN BY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLY A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AND
ENOUGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAFL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS RUN DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAFL ALONG THE S
COAST TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF
AHEAD OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
REFLECTED NEARLY SO MUCH IN THE NAM AND ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT NOT TO NEARLY THE DEGREE OF THE
GFS. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST OTHER ZONES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW THIS
FEATURE WILL MANIFAST ITSELF.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BUT THE MODELS VARY IN
STRENGTH AND NEARNESS OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS IN THIS CASE. THE GFS DOES DEPICT A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO NEAR
48. THERE IS CORRESPONDING VARIATIONS IN THE QPF. WILLHIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY DENSE FOG PATCHES BUT
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY 3-5
MILES IN FOG. TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 7 PM BUT FORECAST MINIMUMS STILL LOOK GOOD. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

4 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO
87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY.  PUT
CHANCE POPS UP TO MASSPIKE AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THERE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCE RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEPARTING LOW ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
OVERING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FAIRLY LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF THAT MAY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT APPROACHES REGION PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS. THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL
DURATION OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN GRID POPS MIGHT IMPLY
ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING. ENOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS TO MAKE THE QPF VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE EXISTING THE REGION WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
DRY NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY WITH THE SITUATION WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROFS TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING.

THRU 12Z...

LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z.
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE TONIGHT
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR
WITH ISOLATED IFR. ENE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS
OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.

TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IFR IN THE MORNING WILL
TREND UP TOWARD MVFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM
SEAS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK
RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND
FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK
RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS WEEK MAY FEATURE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR E TO NE WIND GUSTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AS WELL AS SEAS IN ZONES EXPOSED TO AN EASTERLY FETCH
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HAVE UPPED SEAS ABOVE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPERIENCE WITH NE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECOGNITION. IF THE MEDIUM RANGES MODELS HAVE A FAIR IDEA
ON THE MID WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET BY
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON





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