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000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SURFACE OBS AT 10 PM SHOWED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND
NORTH WINDS ACROSS BOSTON AND THE INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LINE...EXTENDED FROM MARSHFIELD ACROSS
THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT COAST.
OBSERVED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TRENDS OFF NANTUCKET ROUGHLY 06Z-
07Z.

RADAR SHOWED AT 10 PM ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND LEADING THIS
FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST NH ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...WITH A
NORTHEAST MOTION. BACK EDGE OF ALL THE SHOWERS TRENDS TO THE CT
VALLEY AROUND 1 AM AND TO THE EAST COAST OF MASS AROUND 4-5 AM. SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LOOKS FINE.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD/ TO SUPPORT SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEYOND THE RAIN SHIELD.

COLDER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS
AND ADJACENT CT TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH. COOLING TREND NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT AT 10 PM WAS OVER
SOUTHEST MASS AND RI. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF NANTUCKET BY 3 AM.
SEAS LINGER AT 5 TO 9 FEET OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SURFACE OBS AT 10 PM SHOWED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND
NORTH WINDS ACROSS BOSTON AND THE INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LINE...EXTENDED FROM MARSHFIELD ACROSS
THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT COAST.
OBSERVED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TRENDS OFF NANTUCKET ROUGHLY 06Z-
07Z.

RADAR SHOWED AT 10 PM ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND LEADING THIS
FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST NH ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...WITH A
NORTHEAST MOTION. BACK EDGE OF ALL THE SHOWERS TRENDS TO THE CT
VALLEY AROUND 1 AM AND TO THE EAST COAST OF MASS AROUND 4-5 AM. SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LOOKS FINE.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD/ TO SUPPORT SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEYOND THE RAIN SHIELD.

COLDER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS
AND ADJACENT CT TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH. COOLING TREND NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT AT 10 PM WAS OVER
SOUTHEST MASS AND RI. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF NANTUCKET BY 3 AM.
SEAS LINGER AT 5 TO 9 FEET OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT
FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO
2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL
NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT
FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO
2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL
NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT
FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO
2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL
NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...FRANK





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

***PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT***

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  THERE THEN MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP.  BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING.  HOWEVER... THE NAM MODEL IS MOST
ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW SWATH OF
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT WE
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

FINALLY...WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR BLOWING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS TO EXPAND A BIT...SO FELT IT WAS
WORTH AN ADVISORY.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO VISIBILITIES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT
FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO
2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL
NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MID
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  PWATS OVER 1
INCH WERE ALLOWING FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT
NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MID
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  PWATS OVER 1
INCH WERE ALLOWING FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT
NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MID
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  PWATS OVER 1
INCH WERE ALLOWING FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT
NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MID
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  PWATS OVER 1
INCH WERE ALLOWING FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT
NO MAJOR ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE.  LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST.  PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE RATHER
LOW.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS AN
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ***

1030 AM UPDATE...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
AS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...THE DENSE FOG CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST NOON.  HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WAS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG.  WILL RE-
EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT DENSE FOG MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...WHILE IT WAS DRY THIS MORNING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF FOG.  HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE DENSE FOG PREVAILED.  SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.  LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000 FEET MOVES OVERHEAD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS AN
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ***

1030 AM UPDATE...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
AS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...THE DENSE FOG CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST NOON.  HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WAS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG.  WILL RE-
EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT DENSE FOG MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...WHILE IT WAS DRY THIS MORNING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF FOG.  HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE DENSE FOG PREVAILED.  SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.  LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000 FEET MOVES OVERHEAD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS AN
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ***

1030 AM UPDATE...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
AS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...THE DENSE FOG CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST NOON.  HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WAS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG.  WILL RE-
EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT DENSE FOG MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...WHILE IT WAS DRY THIS MORNING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF FOG.  HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE DENSE FOG PREVAILED.  SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.  LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000 FEET MOVES OVERHEAD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS AN
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ***

1030 AM UPDATE...

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
AS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...THE DENSE FOG CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST NOON.  HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD OCEAN WAS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG.  WILL RE-
EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT DENSE FOG MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...WHILE IT WAS DRY THIS MORNING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF FOG.  HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE DENSE FOG PREVAILED.  SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST...BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.  LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000 FEET MOVES OVERHEAD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261308
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON***

905 AM UPDATE...

AREAS OF FOG WERE STILL LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  WE HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL NOON...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLIER IN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE THE SOUTH COAST.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...WHILE IT WAS DRY THIS MORNING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  IN RESPONSE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF FOG.  HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ008>013-017>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
FOG TO THICKEN UP...DROPPING VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A
MILE. ISSUED DENSE FOG BECAUSE OF THIS AS THESE LOWER VSBYS WILL
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. BEST LOCATIONS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE.

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE
IMPACT ACK. FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID
MORNING AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE.

NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 15Z GIVE
OR TAKE AN HOUR. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORM OR
RAIN SHOWER GETS TALL ENOUGH AS 1.5-2 KFT WINDS ARE 40+KTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OR PRECIP AND ADDED THE DENSE FOG
ADV BUT OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ011>013-
     017-018-020-021.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 261105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
FOG TO THICKEN UP...DROPPING VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A HALF OF A
MILE. ISSUED DENSE FOG BECAUSE OF THIS AS THESE LOWER VSBYS WILL
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. BEST LOCATIONS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE.

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH JUST A SPRINKLE
IMPACT ACK. FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID
MORNING AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE.

NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 15Z GIVE
OR TAKE AN HOUR. EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS AN ISO
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORM OR
RAIN SHOWER GETS TALL ENOUGH AS 1.5-2 KFT WINDS ARE 40+KTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OR PRECIP AND ADDED THE DENSE FOG
ADV BUT OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ011>013-
     017-018-020-021.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM / 12Z
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO LINGER UNTIL MORNING.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM / 12Z
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO LINGER UNTIL MORNING.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES AT THE MESO
LEVEL. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SRN
CANADA AND BRING A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFFERENCES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE TRAILING FRONT AS THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. GUIDANCE WAS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO BEING EVENLY SPLIT 24 HRS AGO BUT THE PAST
COUPLE UKMET/CMC RUNS TRENDED TO THE NRN CLUSTER AND EVEN THE
18Z/00Z GEFS MEANS HAVE STARTED TO TREND NWD OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS. SO TRENDED THIS PORTION TOWARDS THE EC/HPC. LASTLY THE
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS AS SEVERAL WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
FOR THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.


DETAILS...

* FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT SOME QPF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S...SO THINKING P-TYPE IS MORE SNOW. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME AREA IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SEEING A
SURPRISED 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLY.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE
OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC/HPC ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ISSUE IMPACTING HIGH TEMPS. EC KEEPS THEM COOL WITH A FASTER PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER BUT WARMS TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S.
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS WARM.

A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST ONE IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WED FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THUS/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS BUT FEEL BEST SHOT IS ORH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ACROSS
THE CAPE IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25-30KTS BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS BACK
TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260727
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM / 12Z
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO LINGER UNTIL MORNING.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING
FRI...CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE MIXED -RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260727
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DIRECT A FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM / 12Z
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT FOG AND
DRIZZLE TO LINGER UNTIL MORNING.

TODAY...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LIFT A LITTLE THIS MORNING. BUT LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 16Z AND
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA BEFORE 18Z. A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN THE LIFT THROUGH
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AIRMASS FEEDING OVER US
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES...NEAR 2 SD FOR
LATE MARCH. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
STABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...LIKELY ELEVATED...OVER OUR AREA.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AFTERNOON RAIN AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE 50S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT. FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THE SOUTH
COAST WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR FOG...AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES
OVER 35-39 DEGREE WATER BEFORE REACHING LAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DRAWS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM DEMONSTRATED IT HAD
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS IT MOVED PAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. MODEL
DATA SHOWS IT CONTAINING STRONG FGEN VALUES AS IT CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE RAIN...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN NORTHWEST MASS LATE AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. A 150 KNOT JET CORE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED PCPN WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORING RAIN. TEMPS ALOFT ALSO FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING
FRI...CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE MIXED -RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 25-33 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 35-40 DEGREE
WATER MAY CREATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MAY REACH 8 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND
ON EXPOSED WATERS SUCH AS RI SOUND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT...THINNING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

FRIDAY...
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT....LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION...POSSIBLY 1.50 IN SPOTS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION
WITH MANY DRY PERIODS ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACHING
50...RISK OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY
HAS A FEW POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD.
THUS NO HEADLINES.

A MORE LIKELY CONCERN WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE
CORE OF HIGHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER IS
LESS ALONG THE COAST THAN FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...THE FROZEN GROUND
AND LACK OF VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER RUNOFF. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR PITENTIAL SMALL STREAM/URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260555
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE FOUND ALL AROUND THE
NORTHEAST USA. THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER VALUES IS ENTERING
WESTERN PA...TOO FAR TO REACH US OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION...BUT GENERAL RANGE WILL BE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING
FRI...CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE MIXED -RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260555
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE FOUND ALL AROUND THE
NORTHEAST USA. THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER VALUES IS ENTERING
WESTERN PA...TOO FAR TO REACH US OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION...BUT GENERAL RANGE WILL BE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING
FRI...CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE MIXED -RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260555
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
155 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE FOUND ALL AROUND THE
NORTHEAST USA. THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER VALUES IS ENTERING
WESTERN PA...TOO FAR TO REACH US OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION...BUT GENERAL RANGE WILL BE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TODAY...

UNTIL 12Z...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TRENDING TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

AFTER 12Z...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER. LOW LEVEL 70-KNOT SOUTHWEST JET AT 2000
FEET MOVES OVERHEAD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD GENERATE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR

TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SOME DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FRIDAY...
FOG AND LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY BUT TREND WILL BE MVFR EARLY AND
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST MASS/RI MAY LINGER AROUND 2500
FOOT CIG THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING
FRI...CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY BE MIXED -RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE FOUND ALL AROUND THE
NORTHEAST USA. THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER VALUES IS ENTERING
WESTERN PA...TOO FAR TO REACH US OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION...BUT GENERAL RANGE WILL BE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TONIGHT...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER FURTHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/E MA. EXPECT
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. LLWS DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER 05Z AS SW
LOW LEVEL JET AT 50-60 KT MOVES ACROSS RI/E MA.

THU...
IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...
LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING FRI...CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
-RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SIMILAR DEW POINTS ARE FOUND ALL AROUND THE
NORTHEAST USA. THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER VALUES IS ENTERING
WESTERN PA...TOO FAR TO REACH US OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION...BUT GENERAL RANGE WILL BE THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TONIGHT...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER FURTHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/E MA. EXPECT
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. LLWS DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER 05Z AS SW
LOW LEVEL JET AT 50-60 KT MOVES ACROSS RI/E MA.

THU...
IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...
LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING FRI...CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
-RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. AREAS OF FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE LOW VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
804 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

AS NOTED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES AS
PRECIP MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF MIXED SLEET AND
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES SINCE
AROUND 530 PM. RECEIVING MORE SPOTTER REPORTS OF SLEET INTO
INTERIOR E MA...NATICK AND ARLINGTON AT AROUND 745-750 PM. WITH
MILD TEMPS AND LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD SOLAR
HEATING EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
ICING SURFACES.

NOTING AREA OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR
WHICH SEEMS TO BE CORRELATE TO MIXED PRECIP REPORTS. ALSO NOTED
VSBYS DROPPED AT BOTH KBDL AND KCEF.

WILL SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF AS PRECIP LIGHTENS UP THEN BECOMES
SPORADIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
DRIZZLE AND FOG SITUATION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING...THEN WILL LEVEL OFF OR
RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS STEADY PRECIP ENDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORKS IN...THOUGH WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN S OF THE
REGION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY OR DURING THU AFTERNOON.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TONIGHT...
WILL SEE -RA WITH LOCAL MIX WITH SLEET THROUGH 02Z-03Z WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER FURTHER AFTER 03Z
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/E MA. EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER 05Z
AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 50-60 KT MOVES ACROSS RI/E MA.

THU...
IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...
LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING FRI...CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
-RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. EVENING
SHOWERS...THEN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 260004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
804 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

AS NOTED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES AS
PRECIP MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF MIXED SLEET AND
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES SINCE
AROUND 530 PM. RECEIVING MORE SPOTTER REPORTS OF SLEET INTO
INTERIOR E MA...NATICK AND ARLINGTON AT AROUND 745-750 PM. WITH
MILD TEMPS AND LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR GOOD SOLAR
HEATING EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
ICING SURFACES.

NOTING AREA OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR
WHICH SEEMS TO BE CORRELATE TO MIXED PRECIP REPORTS. ALSO NOTED
VSBYS DROPPED AT BOTH KBDL AND KCEF.

WILL SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF AS PRECIP LIGHTENS UP THEN BECOMES
SPORADIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
DRIZZLE AND FOG SITUATION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING...THEN WILL LEVEL OFF OR
RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS STEADY PRECIP ENDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORKS IN...THOUGH WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN S OF THE
REGION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY OR DURING THU AFTERNOON.

NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL FORECAST...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING.

TONIGHT...
WILL SEE -RA WITH LOCAL MIX WITH SLEET THROUGH 02Z-03Z WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER FURTHER AFTER 03Z
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/E MA. EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER 05Z
AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 50-60 KT MOVES ACROSS RI/E MA.

THU...
IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...
LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING FRI...CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
-RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST S-SW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. EVENING
SHOWERS...THEN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THU...INCREASING S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...S-SW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO N-NW TOWARD
MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND
SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
549 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
*** A PERIOD OF RAIN AND QUICK TEMP DROP THIS EVENING ***

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST MID LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT. RAIN ALREADY INTO THE NYC AREA AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA 5 PM TO
7 PM...THEN 7 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP TOO AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR YIELDS CHILLY
WET BULB TEMPS. SO AS TEMPS NEAR 50 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
DEVELOPS AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE
30S! SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROB OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 32 IN SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT THINKING WITH HIGHS TODAY MU40S AND HIGH
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE ENOUGH SOLAR HEAT WAS ABSORBED BY PAVED
SURFACES TO PRECLUDE ANY ICING ISSUES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION RESULTING IN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT.

NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HOWEVER TRUE WARM SECTOR DOESN/T OVERSPREAD THE AREA
UNTIL THU AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E DURING THE DAY...BUT
REMAINS ACROSS NY STATE. A SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DURING FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS SIGNALING THE H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN
TO THE MID ATLC STATES...AND BECOMES A NEUTRAL TILT. A COUPLE OF
MODELS /GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF/ EVEN SHOWING SIGNS
OF A CUTOFF FORMING WHILE REMAINING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL HELP THE SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOP S OF NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE...
BUT MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOLDING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY NEAR OR S OF THE MASS PIKE.

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. PRETTY GOOD LIFT AND FORCING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT...SO WILL SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA/W RI INTO NE CT. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE S COAST.

HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN SAT AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE EXIT STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. WILL BE A BIT BLUSTERY SAT MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE IN SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE WORKS E. SOME MODELS DO LINGER THE PRECIP INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT...SO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
N-NW WINDS WILL STIR AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM ONLY -9C
TO -11C EARLY SUN THEN ONLY SLOWLY RISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAST NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BRING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS
SHIFT TO SW OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS SUN NIGHT FALL BACK TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S /ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. S-SW WINDS BRING MILDER TEMPS.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
50. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES
MOVE ALONG...SO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT MON EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...CARRIED DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS. HOWEVER...NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST THEME BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING.

THRU 00Z...

A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERSPREADS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BY 00Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN. FARTHER EAST DRY
WITH VFR ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

AFTER 00Z...

A PERIOD OF MVFR IN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AT TIMES. LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
FOG SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOW RISK OF LLWS AROUND 06Z IN
RESPONSE TO 50-60 KT SW JET OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

THU...

IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...

LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA DURING FRI...CHANGING
OVER TO -SHSN FRI NIGHT FROM N-S...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
-RASN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN ISOLD -SN MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT -SN TO CHANGE TO -RA MONDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST SSW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. EVENING
SHOWERS TOO.

THU...INCREASING SSW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...SSW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO NNW TOWARD MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT. LOW PROB OF GALE GUSTS LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-9 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS
BACK TO SW SUN/SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM SO SMALL CRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE RENEWED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD. NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN OCEAN
STORM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

*** A PERIOD OF RAIN AND QUICK TEMP DROP THIS EVENING ***

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST MID LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT. RAIN ALREADY INTO THE NYC AREA AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA 5 PM TO
7 PM...THEN 7 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP TOO AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR YIELDS CHILLY
WET BULB TEMPS. SO AS TEMPS NEAR 50 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
DEVELOPS AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE
30S! SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROB OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 32 IN SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT THINKING WITH HIGHS TODAY MU40S AND HIGH
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE ENOUGH SOLAR HEAT WAS ABSORBED BY PAVED
SURFACES TO PRECLUDE ANY ICING ISSUES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION RESULTING IN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT.

NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HOWEVER TRUE WARM SECTOR DOESN/T OVERSPREAD THE AREA
UNTIL THU AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST THEME BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING.

THRU 00Z...

A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERSPREADS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BY 00Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN. FARTHER EAST DRY
WITH VFR ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

AFTER 00Z...

A PERIOD OF MVFR IN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AT TIMES. LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
FOG SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOW RISK OF LLWS AROUND 06Z IN
RESPONSE TO 50-60 KT SW JET OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

THU...

IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...

LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST SSW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. EVENING
SHOWERS TOO.

THU...INCREASING SSW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...SSW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO NNW TOWARD MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD.  NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA





000
FXUS61 KBOX 252028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN OCEAN
STORM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

*** A PERIOD OF RAIN AND QUICK TEMP DROP THIS EVENING ***

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST MID LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT. RAIN ALREADY INTO THE NYC AREA AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES GUID IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA 5 PM TO
7 PM...THEN 7 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP TOO AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR YIELDS CHILLY
WET BULB TEMPS. SO AS TEMPS NEAR 50 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
DEVELOPS AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE
30S! SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROB OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 32 IN SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT THINKING WITH HIGHS TODAY MU40S AND HIGH
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE ENOUGH SOLAR HEAT WAS ABSORBED BY PAVED
SURFACES TO PRECLUDE ANY ICING ISSUES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION RESULTING IN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT.

NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HOWEVER TRUE WARM SECTOR DOESN/T OVERSPREAD THE AREA
UNTIL THU AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

*** TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S W/APPRECIABLE SNOW MELT ***

MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THEN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA YIELDING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE AREA
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING YIELDS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAY
RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. THINK THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES WITH RISK OF A FEW
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH HI RES GUID INDICATING TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA. WARM SECTOR MAY STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I-495 IN NORTHEAST MA. THESE
HIGHER DEW PTS COUPLED WITH SOME WIND WILL YIELD APPRECIABLE SNOW
MELT. ALSO THIS CONDENSATION WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NOT
QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LATE DAY
COMMUTE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN STEEP INVERSION. THUS EXPECTING SSW WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...

BAROCLINIC WAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH. GOOD FGEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME
NEGATIVE EPV /INSTABILITY/ WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. BLYR IS VERY WARM INITIALLY BUT DOES
COOL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLEEDS SOUTHEAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN MAY END AS AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS IN CASE BLYR COOLS QUICKER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST THEME BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING.

THRU 00Z...

A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERSPREADS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BY 00Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN. FARTHER EAST DRY
WITH VFR ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

AFTER 00Z...

A PERIOD OF MVFR IN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AT TIMES. LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
FOG SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOW RISK OF LLWS AROUND 06Z IN
RESPONSE TO 50-60 KT SW JET OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

THU...

IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...

LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODEST SSW WINDS. VSBY MAY LOWER IN FOG LATE. EVENING
SHOWERS TOO.

THU...INCREASING SSW WINDS 20-30 KT...STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE.

THU NIGHT...SSW WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO NNW TOWARD MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY. FOG EARLY SHOULD LIFT WITH WIND SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 TO 1.50 IN SPOTS...NOT WIDESPREAD.  NOHRSC
MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY
SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER GIVEN
RAINFALL IS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY DRY PERIODS
ALONG WITH DEW PTS ONLY BRIEFLY JUMPING INTO THE 50S...RISK OF
FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES. IN FACT RFC ONLY HAS A FEW POINTS
ENTERING ACTION STAGE WITH NONE IN MINOR FLOOD. THUS NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ALOFT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING
A PERIOD OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROUND OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

GEM OF AN AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE M40S UNDER FULL
LATE MARCH SUNSHINE. LIGHT WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN WARMER.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
YIELDING MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE WESTERN HORIZON IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS PA/NY AND NJ. EXPECTING
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO ARRIVE APPROXIMATELY 6 PM TO 9 PM FROM WEST
TO EAST.

DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID TEMP DROP /LOW
WET BULB TEMPS/ AS RAIN DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS
HAVE NOTED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS MAY FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING BUT THINK ENOUGH
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PAVEMENT ABSORBING ENOUGH SOLAR
HEATING THAT ANY ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS UNLIKELY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHERMALLY WOULD
START TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST THEME BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING.

THRU 00Z...

A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERSPREADS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BY 00Z WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN. FARTHER EAST DRY
WITH VFR ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

AFTER 00Z...

A PERIOD OF MVFR IN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET
MIXED IN AT TIMES. LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE AND PATCHY
FOG SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOW RISK OF LLWS AROUND 06Z IN
RESPONSE TO 50-60 KT SW JET OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

THU...

IFR/LIFR FOR MOST TERMINALS. DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING GIVE
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED
THUNDER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SSW JET DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTH COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YIELDING POTENTIAL LLWS.

THU NIGHT...

LLWS DIMINISHES AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. A FEW BANDS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE AREA. IFR/LIFR
BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING NW TO SE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS AND N CT. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO 40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
THU...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONSIDER WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST AFTER REVIEW OF
12Z MODELS AND NERFC GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING E FROM OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES WILL REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES LATER IN DAY. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
HIGHER BASED UPON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IN
40S TO AROUND 50. WEAK SEA BREEZES ALONG COAST.

DESPITE THIS WARMING...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A LITTLE SLEET/WET SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HIGH-RES MODELS
SHOW COLD AIR AROUND 925 MB WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING IN WITH RAIN...AND WET BULB COOLING COULD
ALSO COME INTO PLAY. FAVORED LOCATIONS WOULD BE NEAR E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES AND IN NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
OF AN ICING THREAT HOWEVER SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHERMALLY WOULD
START TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A
WEAK SE SEABREEZE AROUND 18Z TIL SUNSET.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS AND N CT. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO 40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
THU...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONSIDER WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST AFTER REVIEW OF
12Z MODELS AND NERFC GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING E FROM OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES WILL REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES LATER IN DAY. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
HIGHER BASED UPON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IN
40S TO AROUND 50. WEAK SEA BREEZES ALONG COAST.

DESPITE THIS WARMING...HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A LITTLE SLEET/WET SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HIGH-RES MODELS
SHOW COLD AIR AROUND 925 MB WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION MIXING IN WITH RAIN...AND WET BULB COOLING COULD
ALSO COME INTO PLAY. FAVORED LOCATIONS WOULD BE NEAR E SLOPES OF
BERKSHIRES AND IN NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
OF AN ICING THREAT HOWEVER SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHERMALLY WOULD
START TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A
WEAK SE SEABREEZE AROUND 18Z TIL SUNSET.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN MASS AND N CT. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN 40S/LOWER 50S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO 40S AND SW WINDS.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
THU...ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONSIDER WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST AFTER REVIEW OF
12Z MODELS AND NERFC GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...JWD





000
FXUS61 KBOX 251120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH MARCH SUN
ANGLE. SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TEMPS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE COASTAL REGIONS WILL BE CHILLY AS WEAK
SEA BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A
WEAK SE SEABREEZE AROUND 18Z TIL SUNSET.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH MARCH SUN
ANGLE. SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TEMPS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE COASTAL REGIONS WILL BE CHILLY AS WEAK
SEA BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A
WEAK SE SEABREEZE AROUND 18Z TIL SUNSET.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
OF THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

OVERALL AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING RIDGE. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE EC.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN
CHANGE.

DETAILS...

* FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEEP SHORTWAVE WILL DIG FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. PRIOR TOO THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING MOST OF THE
PRECIP OFFSHORE...BUT USHERING COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AS THERE IS SOME LINGER
MOISTURE. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR WILL USHER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVERHEAD...COULD SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FEEL THESE MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFOR INSERT SLIGHT CHC POP INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER BEING WEST OF I-95. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW
NORMALS WITH LOWS AROUND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COLDER AT WE COULD RADIATE OUT THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE EC KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER SNE. CONTINUED TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT.
TEMPS AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY CAUSE P-TYPE ISSUES...BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE. FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE ISO/SCT MVFR CIGS ALONG COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING THE DAY AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
BUILDING SEAS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS LOW END GALES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE WIND AND SEAS TO BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE. THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AS WE COULD SEE LINGERING SCA
WIND GUSTS THANKS TO CAA. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WTB





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250715
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDENCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S
OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN
NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...A SECOND COLD FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH. SO... TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50...RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND
THAT TIME...SO WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL
BUILD UP TO 11 TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250715
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN...FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FOG. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE THE NEAREST CIRRUS WAS LOCATED IN
WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA AT 2 AM. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AT A PACE THAT
WILL BRING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND SUNRISE. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALLOWING AN EXPECTED
RANGE OF MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

TODAY...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MORNING AND MIDDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH THAT SKY COVER. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FROM THE
CHILLY START. TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH 18Z WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR WEST AT 18Z BUT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. SO EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE DAY. COULD BE
A CHANCE OF INITIAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN MASS/CT AROUND 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...
PRIME ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF US AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM ADVECTION THEN REACHES THE SURFACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...A DECIDED NON-DIURNAL TREND. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS. THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH
DEW POINTS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO AROUND 40...SHOULD BRING AREAS
OF FOG AS IT RIDES OVER THE SNOWPACK. WITH NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS
IN THE 30S...THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY CHILLED TO CREATE AREAS OF
FOG.

THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT STARTS THE DAY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VERMONT TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS AXIS HAS A NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW
BUT IS NOT FAR FROM BEING PARALLEL. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A 155 KNOT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SURPRISE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THIS LOCATION AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET UP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHICH
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY IT/S A TOUGH CALL FOR RAIN VS SHOWERS...THE
PATTERN LOOKS STRATIFORM BUT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT WE WILL
GO STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE MORE LIKE PERIOD OF RAIN
RATHER THAN A LONG SOAKING RAIN. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S AND TQ 17 TO
18. THE COOLING BY THE SNOWPACK MAY MAINTAIN A STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEW POINT AIR...IN THE 40S...ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID BOTH
FOG FORMATION AND SNOWMELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

950 MB TEMPS 8-10C BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE ISOTHEMALLY WOULD START
TEMPERATURES AT 45-50. ALLOW SOME MINIMAL WARMING DURING THE
MORNING AND POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MAX TEMPS 50-55.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THEN SWINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING...BUT THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS. WE STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL GUIDENCE FOR MIN TEMPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S
OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN
NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...A SECOND COLD FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH. SO... TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50...RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND
THAT TIME...SO WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 3-4 FEET
CLOSER TO SHORE. THE SOUTH WIND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS AT LEAST IN THE 40S. AS THIS MOVES OVER
38 DEGREE WATER IT MAY GENERATE LOW VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-10 FOOT
HEIGHTS EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED WATERS INCLUDING RI SOUND. HEIGHTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS COULD REACH 11 TO 13 FEET AT TIMES. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN RAIN AND FOG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL
BUILD UP TO 11 TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY 1.25 IN SPOTS. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS AND CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

THROUGH 12Z/8 AM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO RAIN MAY ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE TO
LOW CIGS/RAIN/FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IFR/LIFR DUE
TO LOW CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MIXED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MASS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 00Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z TODAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. MAY SEE
LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA 12Z-14Z. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-
SE DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 250139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 9
HOURS UNTIL ANY HIGH CLOUDS REACH US...AND LONGER STILL BEFORE THE
LOWER THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...THIS SHOULD BE OUR OVERALL MIN TEMPERATURE RANGE
BY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT 23Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
KICKED OUT WITH SUNSET...NOTING MAINLY LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

MAY SEE LIGHT NW WINDS KICK IN AS COOLER AIR DRAINS IN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEWPTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
MAXIMIZED... VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE
DERIVED FROM THE COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT 23Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
KICKED OUT WITH SUNSET...NOTING MAINLY LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

MAY SEE LIGHT NW WINDS KICK IN AS COOLER AIR DRAINS IN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEWPTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
MAXIMIZED... VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE
DERIVED FROM THE COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT 23Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
KICKED OUT WITH SUNSET...NOTING MAINLY LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

MAY SEE LIGHT NW WINDS KICK IN AS COOLER AIR DRAINS IN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEWPTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
MAXIMIZED... VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE
DERIVED FROM THE COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS AND PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AT 23Z. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES HAVE PRETTY MUCH
KICKED OUT WITH SUNSET...NOTING MAINLY LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

MAY SEE LIGHT NW WINDS KICK IN AS COOLER AIR DRAINS IN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS E OUT OF NY STATE THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEWPTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
MAXIMIZED... VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE
DERIVED FROM THE COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED
EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLR. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON
THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT MOMENT DIMMING THE
SUNSHINE A BIT. LOWER OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED CAPE
COD AS OF 4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OVERALL A PLEASANT BUT COOL EVENING COMING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES LATER FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT MOMENT DIMMING THE
SUNSHINE A BIT. LOWER OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED CAPE
COD AS OF 4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OVERALL A PLEASANT BUT COOL EVENING COMING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW
  PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS /AT LEAST/ WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. STILL TIMING AND TRACK QUESTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THIS OVERALL UPPER FLOW...THOUGH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE...RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
CONTINUES WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRES MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ON
THU...THEN PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH LATE
THU AND FRI AS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY E. ONCE THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION AS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP FOR S COASTAL AREAS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FAST MOVING H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THIS TIMEFRAME AS H925 TEMPS RISE TO +8C TO +11C. S-SW WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH A GOOD H925 JET MOVING ACROSS /ON ORDER OF
50-70 KT/. MIXING IS NOT GOOD HOWEVER...SO ONLY A PART OF THIS
WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OR SO...HIGHEST ALONG
THE S COAST.

FIRST AREA OF PRECIP MOVES E EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING. NEXT LOW PRES APPROACHING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP TOWARD W MA/CT BY
MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. SOME QUESTION
AS TO RISE IN DEWPTS...BUT SHOULD GET INTO THE 40S AT LEAST.

PWAT VALUES WILL RISE BY LATE THU TO AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
/ABOUT 2SD ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH/. THIS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW
IN PLACE BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW PRES PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE REGION THU EVENING...WILL SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. CURRENT
PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TIMEFRAME RANGES
FROM 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST W OF THE CT
VALLEY. WITH THE RAINFALL ALONG WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS
ALONG SOME AREA RIVERS. DETAILS WILL BE IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE LOWER 50S AND TQ VALUES AROUND 17 TO 19 /ELEVATED CONVECTION/.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY THUNDER WILL BE REALIZED AT THIS
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
THU...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS BY FRI MORNING. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HOLDS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. SO...
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...RUNNING CLOSE
TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LEFTOVER PRECIP WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AROUND THAT TIME...SO
WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE JUST W OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE
12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS DID DEPICT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PASSING JUST
S OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING MOST BULLISH AND THE NAM NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL BE AS IT PASSES SAT MORNING. PUT MENTION IN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA...WHICH COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TEMPS RISE ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THIS WAVE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON...
SO SHOULD SEE DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE COAST. WILL BE A DRY BUT
CHILLY DAY ON SUNDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL WORK SE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS RATHER BULLISH IN BRINGING DECENT
QPF TO THE REGION AS SURFACE REFLECTION WORKS OFFSHORE. THIS MODEL
EVEN TRIES TO REDEVELOP THE LOW OFFSHORE...THOUGH GGEM AND ECMWF
HOLD OFF ON THIS AND KEEP THE LOW FURTHER N. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP
AT THIS POINT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PASS DURING MONDAY.
CARRIED CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...THEN
SHOULD CLEAR OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE SUN NIGHT/MON SYSTEM...AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRES PASSES S OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. MAY SEE LOCAL -SHSN ACROSS N AND W MA
AFTER 06Z FRI THROUGH 13Z-14Z FRI. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM NW-SE
DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS NE CT/RI/SE MA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY ALONG S COAST AS WELL
AS THE S BAYS/SOUNDS. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT THU WILL BUILD UP TO 11
TO 13 FT WELL OFFSHORE ON FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING FRI.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...N-NW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SEA REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONTINUE TO NOTE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ALONG WITH INCREASING DEWPTS /AT LEAST TO THE 40S/ THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS W MA/CT. HOWEVER...WITH MILDER
TEMPS...WILL SEE A BIG WATER RELEASE WITH THE SNOW TO WATER
EQUIVALENT /SWE/ ON ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI MORNING ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...MAY SEE 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEVERAL
OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE DURING
FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CURRENT FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HAVE THE DETAILS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT MOMENT DIMMING THE
SUNSHINE A BIT. LOWER OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED CAPE
COD AS OF 4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OVERALL A PLEASANT BUT COOL EVENING COMING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 242005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT MOMENT DIMMING THE
SUNSHINE A BIT. LOWER OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED CAPE
COD AS OF 4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OVERALL A PLEASANT BUT COOL EVENING COMING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AT MOMENT DIMMING THE
SUNSHINE A BIT. LOWER OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST CLEARED CAPE
COD AS OF 4 PM AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OVERALL A PLEASANT BUT COOL EVENING COMING UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
STRONG WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE FULL LATE MARCH SUN ANOMALOUS COLD/DRY AIRMASS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA AT 130 PM.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE TAKING A BIT OF THE EDGE
OFF THE COOL TEMPS.

OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN A FEW HOURS.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

2 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG
WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE FULL LATE MARCH SUN ANOMALOUS COLD/DRY AIRMASS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA AT 130 PM.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE TAKING A BIT OF THE EDGE
OFF THE COOL TEMPS.

OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN A FEW HOURS.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

2 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG
WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. A WARM FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER THU. A
COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DESPITE FULL LATE MARCH SUN ANOMALOUS COLD/DRY AIRMASS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA AT 130 PM.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE TAKING A BIT OF THE EDGE
OFF THE COOL TEMPS.

OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN A FEW HOURS.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.

OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

2 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE /DEW PTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/ COMBINES WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO 1030 MB HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. COLDEST
TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUS MIN TEMPS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE
COLDEST MOS DATASET ALONG WITH UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY...

CHILLY START TO THE DAY BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WARM FRONT ALOFT/ ON THE NOSE OF THE 850-700 MB
JET WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLUMN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM NOSE OF +4C TO +5C AROUND 850-800 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER PREFRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL COOL AND VERY DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS PROVIDING COLD WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AT 925
MB. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS INLAND ARE CLOSE TO
FREEZING...SO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL WARM PAVEMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR ICING NOT TO BE AN
ISSUE.

NEVERTHELESS...ONCE RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP GIVEN COLD WET BULB TEMPS.

WED NIGHT...

ANY EVENING RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER AS
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT PROVIDING TEMPS RISING TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND WED NIGHT
WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPS PROBABLY MORE REALISTIC THAN MOS. THIS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXISTING SNOW COVER MAY RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARM BUT HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* BLUSTERY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY

MODEL GUIDANCE...

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTERN FCST TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MAY BEGIN
TO EVOLVE TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW BY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
DETAILS WITHIN THE RIDGE/TROUGH CONFIGURATION HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE
TO BE PROBLEMATIC... ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELY TREND TOWARD
FLATTER FLOW SUGGEST THAT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES MAY DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. STILL SOME TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES FOR UPCOMING WED PM
INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY
AND STRENGTH...COULD HAVE FLOODING ISSUES FROM LEFTOVER SNOWPACK AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POLAR
JET DROPPING SOUTH...BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS THEN SPLIT ON WEAK WAVE PASSING ON MONDAY.

DETAILS...

* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  PRECIP WILL OCCUR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

JUST ONE OF MANY SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAINS
STEADY/SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FAR OUT.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST TO WEST WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE FRONT REACH. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO ALWAYS STRUGGLE WITH THAT ASPECT...THEREFORE TRENDED A
MODEL BLEND TO GET A DOWN THE MIDDLE APPROACH. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 50S WHILE
NORTHWARDS WILL STAY IN THE 40S. REGARDLESS RAIN WILL BE
OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SEEMS TO BE WHEN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW LLJ WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE REACHING 50-65 KTS ACROSS THE REGION POOLING IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 1 INCH WHICH IS 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY WHILE THE MOISTURE FLUX IS 4 TO 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AWAY. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED THUNDER. IN FACT MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR QPF FROM JUST
12 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WE COULD MIX DOWN THE
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK...COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS FROM
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MAJOR SNOWMELT. MORE DETAILS IN HYDRO SECTION.

AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING IN STRONG CAA AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

* THE WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT 850MB
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -12C. HOWEVER...WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY INCREASE TEMPS AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR P-TYPE ISSUES BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING.

VFR THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN MVFR CIGS IN A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT BUT
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 21Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU 18Z WED THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS ALONG SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING.
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHOWERS. MAY SEE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW
RISK OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH UNCERTAINTY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT
ESPECIALLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG
WINDS GET WED NIGHT AND BEYOND.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVERHEAD. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER TOO.

WED...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

WED NIGHT...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY 20-25 KT LATE. VSBY
LOWERS IN AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ANTICIPATE ONLY
SOME OF THE WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH BUT
DEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD CAUSE A PERIOD
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS...BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS. FIRST IS THE
ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. 40+F
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ON TOP OF 50+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONDENSATION
AND THUS HEAT UPON THE SNOW PACK INCREASING THE RATE OF MELTING.
GUIDANCE SNOWS THAT THERE IS STILL ABOUT 2-5 INCHES OF WATER WITHIN
THE SNOW PACK OR SWE...ACROSS THE REGION SO THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL HELP RELEASE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WATER.

SECOND ASPECT IS THE UPCOMING RAIN POTENTIAL. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OF QPF TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THEREFORE COMBINING THE RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE UPCOMING QPF...WE
COULD SEE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF WATER HEADING INTO AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY THINK THAT SOME RIVERS WILL GET CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE MINOR FLOODING...BUT MOST WILL FALL SHORT OF FLOOD
LEVELS. HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER OR QPF INCREASES THEN
SEVERAL STREAMS WILL GO INTO FLOOD.

LASTLY...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY ESP IF
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE STILL BLOCKED FROM SNOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...





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